Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."
He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.
Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit. NEVER say NEVER> I would say that it would take a minimum of 5 to 10 years to transition out of these kinds of credit institutions... but most likely in the 20-30 year time-frame... if we get success of crypto currencies. Success of crypto = no more credit? Or do you mean crypto loans will eventually be extended? I think that we are going to have both.... at least for a while. There are also going to continue to be ways to exploit people and to keep them down.. and that will take a while to develop. I don't think any of us know how all of these dynamics will play out in the event that crypto were successful..... on a global level.... Personally, I do NOT want to rack my brain with such speculations b/c I believe that there are so many varying possibilities... Maybe at some point if we branch in a certain direction, then we can begin to narrow down speculations. At this point, the more near future is just for bitcoin to become more widely adopted in a more and more ways by more and more people and businesses and governments... So in that regard, we have to crawl before we can walk and walk before we can run. |
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thought this was fitting  I'm bullish, but wer'e down a lot of percentage so far this year, and its Almost Q2, so I don't see how this is fitting.  Now... talk to me in July and it will probably be accurate. One year is March 2013 to March 2014 - NOT December 2013 to March 2014... that is a different story. NOW, if you are measuring from July 2013 to July 2014, then that is still to be determined. |
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I'm kind of on the fence about buying any right now. Should I? At current price, it'd take me 2 months to buy 1 BTC.
Just buy .15 BTC per week. Or measure the quantity in Fiat how much you buy each week. Say $75 per week or something like that. Then when the BTC price is high, you buy less and when the price is low you buy more. There are various ways to get started investing into BTC whether weekly or daily amounts or once a month. I personally believe that if you are just getting started then better to invest daily.... let's say for example $10 to $20 per day until you acquire a comfortable amount (but the amount and the time interval may vary depending on through what service you are buying), then maybe switch to weekly, but the key is to get started with whatever budget you have and whether you can time your buying of BTC during lower prices.. and then little by little, you will acquire a pool of BTC. |
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There are scumbags everywhere, and probably the ratios are NOT any worse in the bitcoin scene as compared with banking or other industries.
It seems that I have not been clear enough on this point.... There are scumbags everywhere, in the banks and governments too. What is different about making the Satoshi Blockchain into the basis of a crypto-currency economy is that a few thousand people, including many scumbags, will start out OWNING all the money in the world --- as oposed to just having the oligopolistic privilege of storing, handling, managing, and transmitting it. I have seen some of your other posts on this particular topic, and your thesis in this regard seems ill-founded. There may be some truth that some less than savory characters may have been first adopters of bitcoin, and potentially these less than savory characters would profit the most if they are able to HODL their BTC while the price continues to rise. However, in another sense this seems like a fantasy world problem that you are characterizing into bitcoin b/c in NO time in the near future is bitcoin going to be the sole currency or the sole holder of value.. and these kinds of developments, if they were to occur, would take 5-10 years minimum... b/c we are going to have various other currencies and assets that will hold and transmit value. And, surely early adopters would become newly rich by this whole BTC scheme, yet there still seems to be opportunities for status quo rich ( or the old traditional) rich to buy into bicoin at various price points - especially once they recognize bitcoin as a decent hedge investment. These transitions will take a while as well, and surely we cannot be very certain, at this point, how these kinds of transfer of wealth are going to play out. I have not looked hard into Auroracoin, but from what has been said here it seems to be an improvement over BTC in this regard: It will distribute some of the money evenly to all Icelanders, instead of only to miners. Of course, if some private individuals will still retain a large fraction of all the AURs, it will still have the same problem of Bitcoin or any altcoin: those people will end up grabbing a large slice of the Icelanders' total wealth, totally out of proportion to their contribution to the society.
From my understanding, I believe that Auroracoin has more centralization problems than BTC. |
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what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions? Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point?
I don't know. On one hand, there are many people who invested millions in ancillary business (exchanges, funds, payment processors, mining hardware, ATMS...) and many owners of large hoards who may be willing to spend some million USDs in marketing and creating factoids just to keep Bitcoin alive for years. There are also many faithful who will probably stick to it no matter what. I read that Warren Buffett thinks that Bitcoin will be around for 10 years still. Maybe. On the other hand, there are many more BTC off market than on-market. If their owners decide to dump, the price may fall so much that many of those ancillary businesses would fail, and miners may abandon BTC for greener coins. Or the US government may decide that it does not like bitcoin (BTC specifically, or all private cryptocoins, or any cryptocoins). Or the bitcoin scene may become so polluted with scams and crimes that the public will be turned off at the very name. Or whatever... The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keep going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up?
So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us?
I feel a moral and professional obligation to warn the general public about the risks of investing in bitcoin, and about the false or exaggerated claims that many bitcoin "salesmen" of all sorts are still making. I would feel that my time has not been wasted if I can prevent at least one person from being scammed this way. I am not concerned with adult and mentally capable people who still choose to invest in Bitcoin, knowing perfectly well what they are doing (as probably is the case of most people in this thread). They must know that there is no objective way to assign probabilities of "success" (by any definition) or expected future prices to Bitcoin, so that they are gambling in a game with undefined odds. What advice or help could I give to those people? What outcome could I wish for them? I was surprised to see on this forum (not this thread) people openly asking for "good Ponzi schemes" to invest in. Well, as long as all investors are aware that something is a Ponzi, I suppose that it can be considered a kind of gambling, so it is their problem, their money, and their fun. What is not OK is people who know it is a Ponzi trying to lure new investors without telling them that. Actually, I appreciate your response here. It makes more sense than some of the other ones that I read. Regarding Buffet, yep, he is pretty bearish on bitcoin... but you never know with him, he may begin to invest on the side... though these things may NOT really matter too much for a guy like Buffet who has already made a lot of dough and doesnt necessarily need to deviate from what he knows in order to continue to make a killing. |
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everyone wondering why its dropping... isn't anyone surprised its still double what it was before the rally just a few months ago?
jeez u bulls are greedy; price will only go up when people have some reason to use it as a store of value (hiding money from the chinese govt, QE, bank runs etc)
not as some novelty currency with a nascent infrastructure.
also huobi just went down. ddos?
I doubt that a majority of the sentiments from the bulls in this thread are a product of greed, but rather a product of surprise and confusion in figuring that the BTC price should be higher by now... and yes< believe many of the bulls here have a pretty high expectation that BTC is going well over $1000 this year, and that is NOT based on greed but instead based on BTC fundamentals being relatively strong. Maybe some of the more "greedy" bulls, if you want to call us that, are more anxious for higher numbers - such as 3k or 5k or 10k by the end of the year or soon thereafter. Surely, the odds become smaller based on expectations of a higher amount. I'm o.k. with anything above my average BTC investment price in the next couple of years; however, it would be even nicer if BTC prices go to the higher numbers, and any of them are reachable in the next 2 years, including higher amounts... 20K would NOT be out of the question in 2 years, but it may NOT be necessary in order for a BTC bull to feel comfortable with his/her rate of return. |
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He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?
The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons. We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat. Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left. I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight. I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly. If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low. The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range. I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news. If you think that 450$ is a great buy and that the price will go up to high 4 digits within a year you are better off buying as much as much now I don't have much BTC and I am afraid the price will jump up too soon before I can get more BTC I started buying at $1,200 in late November 2013. Accordingly, I have been buying little by little over that time, and trying to buy as the price is dropping, rather than when the price is going up. I started feeling much better about having sufficient skin in the game, once I had accumulated 10 BTC. Though of course, I would have felt even better if I could have acquired those first 10 BTC at a lower average price.... but I continued to invest, even after I had gotten the first 10 BTC. Currently, I have about 39 BTC and my average buy-in price is $685..... so I feel fairly comfortable that I have even more skin in the game.. but surely it would be better to be in the black rather than the red... but personally, I do NOT feel any need to rush anything or to significantly change my investment strategy... of HODL and buy periodically. |
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He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?
The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons. We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat. Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left. That's the problem... The bears have squeezed about as much out of us as they can... They gonna have to come up with some more tricks, fud or false news to get us to stop squeezing our BTCs. I do have some fiat in reserve just in case the price drops more.. .my next buy point is at below $550 on Coinbase... and I question whether we are going to get to that price point... maybe I will have to panic buy at $570, instead? I'd love to get another crack at sub $550, but I don't need to. I'll do just fine if we never see that level again. I try to position myself so that I am happy to go up down or sideways. It's a lot easier if you have a bunch of coinz that you've had for years. Otherwise I'd be panic buying now. Yeah... I do NOT have the luxury of having old coins... especially since I started buying BTC in the end of November 2013. Nonetheless, I try to think strategically about this to keep buying as the price drops... and to a level that I perceive that I can afford. I suspect that at some point, hopefully soon, I will be in the black again. |
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Fuck me, i blame it on those 350ug acid tabs, but i´m feelin bullish for BTC again. I hope i won´t get burned for all that love about BTC(price).  Just bought 30 new coins. If we go below 490$ i will never post again, promised. better get your last posts in quick bud : -) I am sure that there would be many more posters here, who would be willing to take a bet that we will NOT breach $490 within the next two weeks. Personally, I am ON THE FENCE about whether I would make such a bet. I am inclined to think that if we do breach $490, such a breach would be NO more than a few hours, and such breach would only come as a result of some major news or even some fake news that allows a certain level of panic and/or manipulation. I have considerable difficulties even with any belief that we would breach $510 in the next couple of weeks, without something dramatic occurring. I don't know if we will brake the 510 or the 490 resistance but it doesn't seem that far away But I think that the lower we go with the BTC price, the more and more difficult it will become to convince BTC holders to sell their coins.. absent some major news (whether real or NOT)... So, even though it does NOT seem far, the BTC holders resistance to sell becomes ever increasing as the price gets lower. |
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Finally he said, "But..." and there was a long pause as he was out of arguments. I interrupted and said, "What you're realizing in this moment is the paradigm shift. Western Union, out of business. Credit card companies, out of business. Banks? Well, we will see."
He recognized it could change all payments, credit, cash, checks, international, and that it could possibly put a hurting on bank fees. He held onto the fact banks still make loans. I didn't have the heart to tell him that might wane if they couldn't make absurd money from fees. He'll figure it out.
Credit cards aren't going anywhere. People live on credit. NEVER say NEVER> I would say that it would take a minimum of 5 to 10 years to transition out of these kinds of credit institutions... but most likely in the 20-30 year time-frame... if we get success of crypto currencies. |
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I expect a slow/steady rise in price until April 2, after that it could go further up past ~650 or go back down. Enjoy the ride.
What's happening on April 2? |
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There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic : More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux : https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbotFor me, that is one of the most scary things: large numbers of people being convinced that governments and laws are bad, and therefore rejecting democracy and democratic politics. Historically, those people have always been instruments of parties that overthrow democratic governments to install opressive dictatorships. Asia is developing and parts of Africa too
China and Southeast Asia seem to be improving, not sure about the rest. Parts of Africa are getting worse... Big government has nothing to do with democracy; a big government is an opressive dictatorship that steal your money and your freedom Such a huge portion of humanity has left poverty in the last decades Thing is: Big corporations bribing and holding hostage the referee. Then telling people, the referee is a bad guy. Endgame: Referee gone, big corporations rule, people loose even more. That is exactamente correct.... NEED anyone say more than this? I doubt it... Well said, Eiskalt!! |
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There are many reasons to be pessimistic but let me give you a few reasons to be optimistic : More and more people are starting to understand that a big government is bad for them and protect the big corporations instead of protecting them; the freedom ideas are travelling fast on internet, everyone can get to understand them by watching a few videos of Stefan Molyneux : https://www.youtube.com/user/stefbotFor me, that is one of the most scary things: large numbers of people being convinced that governments and laws are bad, and therefore rejecting democracy and democratic politics. Historically, those people have always been instruments of parties that overthrow democratic governments to install opressive dictatorships. Asia is developing and parts of Africa too
China and Southeast Asia seem to be improving, not sure about the rest. Parts of Africa are getting worse... Big government has nothing to do with democracy; a big government is an opressive dictatorship that steal your money and your freedom Such a huge portion of humanity has left poverty in the last decades Dont get big government mixed up with big corporations... b/c you may think that government is taking your money when in fact the rich are failing and refusing to pay.. .which causes it to seem as if you are paying too much b/c you are too busy getting stolen from by big businesses, such as banks and oil companies and insurance companies... as several others that are getting subsidies rather than paying their fair share of taxes to contribute to the infrastructure.. and to various public goods that should NOT be given to the rich to benefit for free for these various public resources |
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Some big BTC holders are waiting for 2000$ 3000$ 5000$ or sometimes way more before they will sell, traders follow the trends and everyday tens of persons that didn't Bitcoin a few month ago are buying a few BTC or more in hope of a long term gain
I agree that there may be some liquidation of BTC at various price points; however, we are going to need to know how fast BTC gets to those price points before we can predict the behavior of people. If it goes quickly, then maybe we are more likely to see some selling going on... but if it goes slowly, then there will be continued optimism regarding future potential of bitcoin.. b/c none of those price-points would be a bubble... unless going there too quickly... market cap at 2,000 would be less than $30 billion, and at 3,000 would be 45 billion and at 5k would be 75 billion. It is very likely that there would be much more room for BTC growth from any of those market cap points - unless some other cryptos are taking some of the market cap that would have otherwise gone to BTC.. WE definitely would need to consider the whole BTC environment before predicting whether BTC investors would be selling or HODLING. |
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Bitcoin will fall until it's not falling anymore and no one can stop it or change that. I believed when Bitcoin finally got to $15 it would go up forever. Then I sat on my coins for months at $2 waiting for the rise.
You must admit that the fundamentals of bitcoin are much stronger, since 2011, 2012 and since mid - to - late 2013 |
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im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it  A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future. If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months . If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic". I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope. And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news. So you are saying don't just measure dollars but relative dollar, you can still measure in dollars. As for your opinion I'm curious, what do you define as e-commerce? In December 2012 I had finished my thought experiment and Bitcoin education of 20 months. (My skepticism was based on the fact my investment had over a 300% return. I could see no way for it to succeeded as a currency other than in black markets where there were greater inefficiencies. My conclusion was the velocity of Bitcoin couldn't justify the price (silk road accounting for approximately 80% of Bitcoin commerce.) So I sold all but the fiew coins I mined. Needless to say over the following 12 months Bitcoin went from $10 to $1,000. The shock (lost opportunity) made me reconsider my assumptions. I finally reconciled my understanding with the fact Bitcoin could be used as a currency for e-commerce, if it's price collapsed. But it's killer app was store of value and vertual commodity. Since then my trading style has reflected that understanding. I would love to know what it is about Bitcoin that has entrenched you skepticism ? I swapped him on to my ignore as it is the same story with new vocab. I don't even know why he posts here per say...but we all arrived here somehow. I do come here to gain a better understanding of other peoples sentiment and outside opinions to help me develop my own conclusions. Jorge focuses too much of the human aspects; exchanges run by shady char, faked volume due to 0% fees, sleeping Chinese traders, sociopaths who would take your fiat or bitcoin all the same. I invested in bitcoin ultimately because it is a technological revolution of financial accountability at its core, the many aspects of bitcoin that then stem off of this are equally impressive and innovative in my opinion. This post can be interesting bc you get to know how people feel and sometimes you learn a thing or 2 Sometimes it makes me think about some aspect of Bitcoin that I didn't think of but I come here mostly for entertainment as I am not even trading BTC; I buy it when I can; if the price is lower I can buy more so I am happy For how long have you been buying? How frequently do you buy and how much, approximately? How many BTC have you accumulated? |
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Even cryptocurrency, a potentially nice idea, has become the "property" of a swarm of scumbags, that make bankers look like angels of virtue and generosity. in comparison.
There are scumbags everywhere, and probably the ratios are NOT any worse in the bitcoin scene as compared with banking or other industries. If I were to theorize based on a valid scientific study in this regard, I would bet that current traditional industries, including banks have a higher percentage of scumbags douches that steal money from regular people and engage in unethical fraud conduct as compared with the bitcoin space. Of course, you could find contrary examples in each case.. but ultimately, I would theorize that if the sicentific study was conducted with valid principles and methodology, bitcoin would be filled with far fewer scumbags than traditional industries, including banks. |
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im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future. If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months . If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic". I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope. And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news. what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions? Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point? The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keeps going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up? So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us? thanks for caring!!!!  |
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He nailed one thing for sure: the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?
The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons. We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat. Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left. I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight. I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly. If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low. The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range. I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news. |
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objectively we are in a b*** market.
To everyone who read this as "objectively we are in a BEAR market", that is not what wetroof is saying. This statement is a joke. Literally. b*** could be bull or it could be bear. Interesting to notice how everyone who has replied to this post this far has read it as bear though... Could be bullshit as well  or bearshit I am NOT sure whether there is a difference between saying something is bearshit or bullshit, except that bullshit is more commonly used and accordingly morewidely understood.. but bearshit could have the same meaning as bullshit, no? |
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