Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

everyone watches the car crash until its over, then they go in to loot the survivors.

I just bought some at $560 - I think we are at the bottom, the charts flattening out and weekends are notorious for random moves on no volume.

take a step back - things are well aligned to start putting out positive spin again and knock this up by 20% in just a few day's work. For traders, that is a golden opportunity, considering its dragged  down 25% or so in the last week of bad news. Most of the money in the markets is traders, rather than new buyers or sellers of old coin.

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

we have had very few bitcoin days destroyed in the last 2 weeks - this means that old wallets are still staying put and that the trading volume is mostly buying and selling the same coins around

I looked at your reference to the bitcoin days destroyed chart, and your description does NOT match with the representation s contained in that chart.  We have been getting multiple spikes, and we had a spike between March 6 and March 18... and part of that may be explained by gox moving its old coins... ... but it otherwise looks like a fairly significant spike in days destroyed curing that period of time.

[windjc]

Some serious walls on bitfinex.

That is a fake wall at $600, imo. Pretty obvious.

[byronbb]

Some serious walls on bitfinex.

That is a fake wall at $600, imo. Pretty obvious.

Ya trader's using leverage to hold the price down.

[aminorex]

dipstick keeps selling hidden at 563 when bitstamp is at 568

[aminorex]

Either there are enough hidden coins at 563 to stop the mounting upward pressure, or else this thing is going to take off like a freaking rocket ship when he runs out of coins.

[JayJuanGee]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

That's the problem... The bears have squeezed about as much out of us as they can... They gonna have to come up with some more tricks, fud  or false news to get us to stop squeezing our BTCs.  I do have some fiat in reserve just in case the price drops more.. .my next buy point is at below $550 on Coinbase... and I question whether we are going to get to that price point... maybe I will have to panic buy at $570, instead?

[aminorex]

i'm just buying off the hidden order at bfx and selling on stamp now

[JayJuanGee]

objectively we are in a b*** market.

To everyone who read this as "objectively we are in a BEAR market", that is not what wetroof is saying. This statement is a joke. Literally. b*** could be bull or it could be bear. Interesting to notice how everyone who has replied to this post this far has read it as bear though...

Could be bullshit as well

or bearshit    

I am NOT sure whether there is a difference between saying something is bearshit or bullshit, except that bullshit is more commonly used and accordingly morewidely understood.. but bearshit could have the same meaning as bullshit, no?

[byronbb]

i'm just buying off the hidden order at bfx and selling on stamp now

So you are taking a $2 arb? Is there darkpool orders on bitfinex or stamp or would someone do this with a bot?

[JayJuanGee]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0

After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.

I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.

If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range.  I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news.

[JayJuanGee]

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future.  If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months .  If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$. 

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic".  I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope.  And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions? 

Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point?  The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keeps going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up? 

So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us? 

thanks for caring!!!!

[billyjoeallen]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

That's the problem... The bears have squeezed about as much out of us as they can... They gonna have to come up with some more tricks, fud  or false news to get us to stop squeezing our BTCs.  I do have some fiat in reserve just in case the price drops more.. .my next buy point is at below $550 on Coinbase... and I question whether we are going to get to that price point... maybe I will have to panic buy at $570, instead?

I'd love to get another crack at sub $550, but I don't need to. I'll do just fine if we never see that level again. I try to position myself so that I am happy to go up down or sideways. It's a lot easier if you have a bunch of coinz that you've had for years. Otherwise I'd be panic buying now.

[boumalo]

He nailed one thing for sure:  the no volume part, which is concerning for bull at least. If the coins are really dat cheap, why no volume?

The distributed P2P federal reserve (that is the Bitcoin speculators) have exhausted there fiat canons.  
We need a new QE type plan metaphorically lets not call it bond buying but investing in Alts. Instead of buying fiat.

Nope. Our cannons are aimed squarely at the bears. If the price drops just a little bit more...BOOM! Got yer coins. Go ahead and sell. Just try it. You'll see how much fiat we have left.

I think the first major resistance will be in the $530 range: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=526445.0

After that the daily 300 EMA is in the 470 area. Anything below that to $400 is going to be a major dogfight.

I expect the bulls to start putting up a real fight soon. This could continue lower for another month or two, but I think we are going to be running out of steam for the bears shortly.

If we see anything below $380, then I will celebrate with joy, because I have about $200k in fiat ready to go all in at any prices that gets that low.

The chances seem pretty high that you are going to be left behind if you are waiting for such pie in the sky numbers that are in the below $400 range.  I will grant you that it is possible to go into the 400s.. possibly down to $470... but it is likely that the bulls will be fighting before it reaches $470.... unless it just happens to be a flash crash based on hyping news.

If you think that 450$ is a great buy and that the price will go up to high 4 digits within a year you are better off buying as much as much now

I don't have much BTC and I am afraid the price will jump up too soon before I can get more BTC

[byronbb]

Never seen much of an arb between stamp and finex before. Haven't been chart watching lately has this been common?

[JayJuanGee]

Even cryptocurrency, a potentially nice idea, has become the "property" of  a swarm of scumbags, that make bankers look like angels of virtue and generosity. in comparison.

There are scumbags everywhere, and probably the ratios are NOT any worse in the bitcoin scene as compared with banking or other industries. 

If I were to theorize based on a valid scientific study in this regard, I would bet that current traditional industries, including banks have a higher percentage of scumbags douches that steal money from regular people and engage in unethical fraud conduct as compared with the bitcoin space.  Of course, you could find contrary examples in each case.. but ultimately, I would theorize that if the sicentific study was conducted with valid principles and methodology, bitcoin would be filled with far fewer scumbags than traditional industries, including banks.

[ActualAdviceBTC]

everyone wondering why its dropping... isn't anyone surprised its still double what it was before the rally just a few months ago?
jeez u bulls are greedy; price will only go up when people have some reason to use it as a store of value (hiding money from the chinese govt, QE, bank runs etc)
not as some novelty currency with a nascent infrastructure.

also huobi just went down. ddos?

[JorgeStolfi]

what are your time lines for these various death of bitcoin predictions?  Is bitcoin just going to suffer a slow death, or will its death be sudden, at some point?

I don't know.

On one hand, there are many people who invested millions in ancillary business (exchanges, funds, payment processors, mining hardware, ATMS...) and many owners of large hoards who may be willing to spend some million USDs in marketing and creating factoids just to keep Bitcoin alive for years.  There are also many faithful who will probably stick to it no matter what.

I read that Warren Buffett thinks that Bitcoin will be around for 10 years still.  Maybe. 

On the other hand, there are many more BTC off market than on-market.  If their owners decide to dump, the price may fall so much that many of those ancillary businesses would fail, and miners may abandon BTC for greener coins.  Or the US government may decide that it does not like bitcoin (BTC specifically, or all private cryptocoins, or any cryptocoins).  Or the bitcoin scene may become so polluted with scams and crimes that the public will be turned off at the very name. Or whatever...

The most painful under your hypothetical scenario would be if the BTC price were to just slowly keep going down while sucking more and more of us bulls into buying.. and then all of our lives' savings would be in bitcoin, when it goes belly up? 

So you are here in this thread to try to save as many of us as you can, while there is is still hope to save some of us? 

I feel a moral and professional obligation to warn the general public about the risks of investing in bitcoin, and about the false or exaggerated claims that many bitcoin "salesmen" of all sorts are still making.    I would feel that my time has not been wasted if I can prevent at least one person from being scammed this way.

I am not concerned with adult and mentally capable people who still choose to invest in Bitcoin,  knowing perfectly well what they are doing (as probably is the case of most people in this thread).   They must know that there is no objective way to assign probabilities of "success" (by any definition) or expected future prices to Bitcoin, so that they are gambling in a game with undefined odds.  What advice or help could I give to those people?  What outcome could I wish for them? 

I was surprised to see on this forum (not this thread) people openly asking for "good Ponzi schemes" to invest in.  Well, as long as all investors are aware that something is a Ponzi, I suppose that it can be considered a kind of gambling, so it is their problem, their money, and their fun.  What is not OK is people who know it is a Ponzi trying to lure new investors without telling them that.

[JayJuanGee]

im supposed to not wire more fiat then i can lose but i might have to do it

A monetary loss cannot be measured just in dollars, you must consider what it could mean to your life, now and in the future.  If you have a few million $, losing 100 k$ is only an inconvenience, and you will probably recover those 100 k$ in a matter of months .  If all you own is a house worth 200 k$, losing 100 k$ is a big trauma, may even cost your family and you may never recover those 100 k$.  

If it helps you decide, I am going to change my signature from "rather skeptic" to "very skeptic".  I now put the chances of Bitcoin (specifically, not some future crypto-coin) becoming a significant currency of e-commerce at about the same level of myself becoming Pope.  And it has nothing to do with price evolution or recent news.

So you are saying don't just measure dollars but relative dollar, you can still measure in dollars.

As for your opinion I'm curious, what do you define as e-commerce?

In December 2012 I had finished my thought experiment and Bitcoin education of 20 months. (My skepticism was based on the fact my investment had over a 300% return. I could see no way for it to succeeded as a currency other than in black markets where there were greater inefficiencies. My conclusion was the velocity of Bitcoin couldn't justify the price (silk road accounting for approximately 80% of Bitcoin commerce.)

So I sold all but the fiew coins I mined. Needless to say over the following 12 months Bitcoin went from $10 to $1,000.
The shock (lost opportunity) made me reconsider my assumptions.

I finally reconciled my understanding with the fact Bitcoin could be used as a currency for e-commerce, if it's price collapsed.
But it's killer app was store of value and vertual commodity.

Since then my trading style has reflected that understanding.

I would love to know what it is about Bitcoin that has entrenched you skepticism ?

I swapped him on to my ignore as it is the same story with new vocab. I don't even know why he posts here per say...but we all arrived here somehow.

I do come here to gain a better understanding of other peoples sentiment and outside opinions to help me develop my own conclusions. Jorge focuses too much of the human aspects; exchanges run by shady char, faked volume due to 0% fees, sleeping Chinese traders, sociopaths who would take your fiat or bitcoin all the same. I invested in bitcoin ultimately because it is a technological revolution of financial accountability at its core, the many aspects of bitcoin that then stem off of this are equally impressive and innovative in my opinion.

This post can be interesting bc you get to know how people feel and sometimes you learn a thing or 2

Sometimes it makes me think about some aspect of Bitcoin that I didn't think of but I come here mostly for entertainment as I am not even trading BTC; I buy it when I can; if the price is lower I can buy more so I am happy

For how long have you been buying?  How frequently do you buy and how much, approximately?  How many BTC have you accumulated?

[ActualAdviceBTC]

So apparently huobi got attacked and are working on a fix. http://www.weibo.com/3495498135/AChBfyMeN?mod=weibotime

Also they did not handle the whole LTC margin call thing after the launch very well... can someone help translate this? thanks buds!
http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_d05911970101hrhz.html

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin will fall until it's not falling anymore and no one can stop it or change that. I believed when Bitcoin finally got to $15 it would go up forever. Then I sat on my coins for months at $2 waiting for the rise.

You must admit that the fundamentals of bitcoin are much stronger, since 2011, 2012 and since mid - to - late 2013