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I need picture of this virtual bounce along with indicators to answer )
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Every PoW fork uses limited resource - electrical power to enforce it's security. As long as power is limited, miners aim to mine more popular fork. More popular is more secure and visa versa.
So more popular and secure fork drain power, security and popularity from all others. One most popular PoW fork kills others by its existence.
This is long fork threat.
Bitcoin is like Saturn god eating his children.
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I don't buy what I didn't researched. I don't research because I know it will cost nothing eventually. Because of long fork threat.
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No, this is very serious economic and psychological since work "Passing through a shit cycle on a wave of greed".
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I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.
I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.
Let's call next fork "shit".
1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates, Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.
I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.
Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.
I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.
Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.
This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.
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So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?
As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor. I am sure there is some seriously wise info locked in that quote but for the life of me I can't figure what it is. Russian thinker Kuzma Prutkov said - It is impossible to comprehend the immensity  So when you try - you put your time, your money and your energy into black hole. And stay poor whatever you do. Invalid point of applied forces - find another |
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So, basically what you're saying is that there wasn't enough bearish coin holders flushed out yet and/or the bulls don't think any more pumps at this current stage will do any good?
As long as you research other's coins and thoughts you stay poor. |
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Luc- what happened to your confident assessment that it will hit at least 310-400 or whatever.
Rise was too slow, too low volume. Bearish divergence appeared earlier than price went to safe zone. |
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208 - bearish 450 - bullish Everything between - undefined, hehe. Pretty wide range |
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Somewhere around 100 if price will touch 208 again.
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Daily hidden bearish macd/rsi divergence formed, warning active.
Rising bullish signal to 450 lower high break up.
Strong bearish prediction if price touch 208 low.
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I had VERY FUCKING NEGATIVE expirence trading with bfx for almost year. I don't have idea who is iFinex Inc and why do they still beta after two years.
And I am not Chinese to trade at btcchina. Don't ask dumb questions.
Also I don't see any significant difference between those 3 exchanges graphs.
As for situation report. WARNING! Hidden bearish divergences I mentioned above are doomed to be unless miracle. This doesn't mean daily sma200 can't be retested. But price should break 470 high almost immediately for good bullish scenario.
Taking into account daily picture, I look at weekly chart and unfortunately observe rising odds that bullish bounce will terminate at weekly sma20.
TLDR: this may be a bull trap.
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Two weeks. Great chance of getting bearish hidden divergence  |
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But I will be surprised if 310 high will not be broken
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Daily ADX and SS suggest at least correction.  |
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First medium strength resistance - weekly sma20  |
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Local downtrend channel breaking  |
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They use bitcoin derivatives as internal currency wmx
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UPD sorry didn't read correctly your post
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