I would say it a bit differently.  You need the discretionary income to invest in the first place, and then if you are going to keep investing that would come from discretionary income and/or reserves, but if you are not keeping your discretionary income up, then you would likely end up draining your reserves if you were using that to continue to invest into bitcoin.. so there are balancing of these various cashflow matters in order to keep investing and hopefully not having to dip into your bitcoin investment at any time other than your completely own choosing.

For example, there are guys who might start out investing into bitcoin with their discretionary income, and then if their discretionary income dries up or they choose to lessen their time earning outside income and they might start to believe that they can either dip into their bitcoin profits or that they are able to earn extra money through bitcoin and they can either use that money for reinvesting or they can use it to live off of in the case that they do not have enough income coming in cover all of their expenses, so then their bitcoin becomes their working capital and they are using income from bitcoin for their expenses, and they may no longer end up having any discretionary income, which is extra income that they can fold into their bitcoin investment.


You seem to be making a different point than what I was making. Surely some folks might be in jurisdictions in which there might not be a lot of options, and even in the USA, there has tended to be quite a few options, but when exchanges are being attacked or even engaging in their own "proactive" measures, there can be fears about whether some avenues of getting in and out of bitcoin might become no longer available at future dates.. and it would not be a good thing to have funds locked up because of surprises. .and so in that sense there may be needs to have several on and off ramp options, even if you hardly ever use them, it is good to know that they are available and working.


Even though many people can be dumb, we should be trying to consider them as adults who can figure out that the price can go up or down, and they should have plans for either direction.  So yeah if they overly invest considering that the price is ONLY going to go up and they might not have any plan, but then if they look at their account and it is 10% to 15% or even more down, then they might NOT even think about putting more money in, which surely would seem to be the appropriate solution for anyone who had been investing rationally and with thoughts that the price could go up or down in the short-to-medium term, and it might even go down way longer and stay there longer than anticipated... so yeah, if people had already invested a good chunk of money, they might not have any extra that they feel that they can put in, and that would be their own lack of preparations and perhaps a bit of childishness in their own approach to bitcoin.


These ideas still likely need to be learned through putting them into practice and perhaps also starting an investment a bit slowly while getting used to everything, which surely DCA could be such a road to getting started slowly, yet even if they might start with a bit of a lump sum, they might also need to hold some money aside for DCA and/or buying on dips in case the BTC price goes down rather than up.


Discretionary income is a kind of prerequisite as you mentioned, and it provides guidelines for limitations, and there surely are folks who invest into bitcoin beyond their discretionary income and they do not have enough of a grasp upon understanding their own cashflows in order to determine if they might be engaging in bad practices to invest with money that they actually need for their expenses.


It does help in the learning process to have an ability to interact.


There are 9 individual factors that any of us should be accounting for in terms of our investment, and there can be changes in any of those 9 factors.  That is new information that should be taken into account.


Sure information about bitcoin and other possible investments is one of the factors, but there are 8 other factors that are equally important...including with the passage of time your bitcoin holdings are presumptively growing.. and that is a factor that you know is changing but it might change in ways that either need to be accounted for or in ways that you had not expected.


Sure people could get distracted into other things, and so that is on them if they start to believe that bitcoin has changed or that there are better places to put their time, money and energies... and sometimes, as you suggest, they might wrongly perceive something to have had changed about bitcoin, but they are being moved by distractions, such as their own sentiments changing or the sentiments of the market, which truly are not good ways to figure out your own approach to bitcoin, even though people do get persuaded by such short-term noises... there is some value in keeping your eye on the prize, and not necessarily considering everything going on to be important in terms of changing your approach... somethings are important and other things not.. your own cashflow changes tend to be way more important than changes in the sentiment of the market or some new shiny product that might have had come available.. but yeah people get distracted. but that does not mean that we should allow those kinds of unimportant things to distract us..


If you keep learning about bitcoin you are likely to build conviction, but you might also start out in bitcoin and ONLY have superficial knowledge of it, so you might start to invest into bitcoin in a very conservative way until you get a feel for it.. which includes managing your own money and then making sure that you are investing in a way that works for you in terms of your not going to need the invested money for 4-10 years or longer, so you would not want to be overinvesting with money that you actually need in the next 6 months or even a year down the road you realize that you need that money that you had put into bitcoin... so those would not be good practices, but they would be things that people can learn how to make sure that they are investing within their own discretionary income and other ways that they are balancing their finances by keeping an emergency fund of 3-6 months and perhaps having reserves and managing their cash floats... that might involved a lot of variability in income and also in expenses,

So hypothetically there could be a guy who has an income that varies between $1,500 and $3,500 per month with most months resulting in $2,200 of income, and he may have expenses that vary between $1,600 and $2,500 per month with most months being around $1,850, so he can expect that most months he has $350 of discretionary income, but he might have to manage his reserves and float in such a way that he is not feeling stressed out about his income/expenses variance (and therefore his discretionary income variance)... If he does not maintain emergency funds, reserves and a float, and then he chooses to invest $100 per week into bitcoin, he is going to get himself into trouble from time to time... and he might even suffer the similar kinds of trouble if he decides to only invest $50 per week into bitcoin, since he is likely going to need to practice some kinds of ways to have some cashflow cushion during times that his income might be low and/or his expenses are high.


Even though you seem to be focusing so much on things happening with bitcoin, which is not irrelevant, but it is still ONLY one of the factors that folks need to consider in terms of their own balancing of their BTC investment, and it seems the more important and concrete of matters tend to revolve around a person's cashflow management.


Why stop at $100k?  Besides the fact that so many folks talk about it and it happens to be 6 digits, what is so important about $100k?

My disclaimers did not work to show that I was largely just attempting to highlight a bit of a dilemma in the idea of disclosing who the highest level reporters are... not that the gangs of  bad guys run the forum.

But, yeah, maybe my own way of framing the disclosing of reporters comes off as if I don't believe in reporting, which most of my reports have tended to revolve around shills, yet I am sure there are some other categories in which I believe posts go overboard.. so I am not even sure if I want to disclose my number of reports.. since I am not against reporting and I do engage in such activities myself.. .. but it is several hundred reports over the years... .. but yeah, I have been a forum member for more than 10 years, so I might not have reported very many posts my first couple of years, so yeah, sure, I most likely would not even make the top 1,000 reporters, but that does not mean that I am against reporting (and tattle tales.. to make it fun)..

I was just wanting to throw in some color with the idea of reporting in regards to showing the dilemma of disclosing high level reporters.. and so in that regard, it may or may not be the kind of an attention that a high level reporter wants.. .. .. yet it likely is not even as BIG of a point as I was making it out to be.. so maybe I should just retract the whole idea.. since it is not even that BIG of a deal to me.. and sure, we all benefit, even from the reporters who might be prolific in the sense of over-doing it.. .. so now.. look you got me to concede...and maybe even agree that maybe I should attempt to pick up my reporting game.. and surely I tend to report most of the posts that I believe to have gone overboard.. and even though I read a lot of posts, I do not necessarily end up come across a lot of posts that I find to be reportable.


I doubt that you need very much evidence to report the post of another member (0r even the conduct of another member that might be represented by a series of posts). You just should have a reason that you put in the report which suggest some kind of conduct that you believe to be in violation of the forum's rules... so there might not be a BIG downside to reporting... so for example, I don't tend to report posts that are not on topic, except if I were in a thread and the other member continue to push off-topic ideas (and the member was told to stop), then maybe after a while I might report those kinds of posts.   

So, there are likely some kinds of posts that I could report, and I do not do it because I might find them to NOT go beyond my own concerns, even if technically they might be breaking a forum rule.. and another thing that some members do, is they just tell the member that they are breaking a forum rule, so that might help to get the member to stop.  I know that sometimes I am bothered by failures to cite sources for information, and surely there are some posts that appear like they are done by bots rather than real people, but it can be quite difficult to spend time trying to figure out some of those kinds of matters.. and even for someone like me.. sometimes, I find that I am reading through a bunch of crappy forum posts, but they don't reach a level of reportability, even though they might not really be adding any value and might be difficult to read in terms of figuring out what kind of point they might be trying to make.. so yeah, it is nice to come across forum members who are able to present their points in interesting ways and to use examples and sometimes to point out references to support the points of their post.

Yes... .This is largely reasonable, even for poor people to buy bitcoin and transact on the blockchain.. yet surely these periods of uncertainty cannot really bring a lot of assurance that UTXOs should be kept in small amounts, so there likely still exist some incentives for those smaller transaction sizes to be conducted with 3rd parties, even if someone might be buying $50 per week, he might want to wait until he gets up to somewhere between $500 to $1k before he moves that BTC to his own private address.  And even if the JPEG nutjobs do not end up coming back, there may be some signs that we have to be careful in regards to how small we might be wiling to keep any of our UTXOs.. Most of my UTXOs are more than $500, but I do have a few that are around $100, so there can be some concerns about circumstances in which those ones can be used...or if they might have periods in which they are not economical to use.

By the way when I look back at the recently processed blocks (https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001a72cf36c19a5cf2f2213b85fb13b6ca1962c23f23b8c) , I do see some of the recently processed ones getting down into the 12 - 13 sats per vbytes, and they don't go as low as what fee buddy is suggesting to be possible.. 

I would still be concerned to try to send transactions as low as 12-13 sats per vbyte, even though it does look like they might have decent odds of going through in the coming days,. but surely if there was some desire to consolidate UTXOs, then we would be wanting to get as low a fee as possible, so maybe 15 sats per vbyte with a single input is still going to run about 1,650 sats.. which is about a $1 at current prices.  

Even though I feel like I am being a bit redundant, surely the various positives of bitcoin seem to quite outweigh the various negatives, and surely that is part of the reason that I have been invested in BTC since late 2013 and largely spent my earliest years in bitcoin focused on accumulating it - even when there were not very many folks who were looking into the matter of bitcoin and even taking small stakes in bitcoin during those times, and surely there remains some obstacles in terms of a lot of normal people and/or even educated people or otherwise folks who invest into things, and still so many people still fail/refuse to invest into bitcoin, even with some relatively small portion of their discretionary income (or some small portion of their investment portfolio, if they happen to have an investment portfolio).

Also, part of my point is to continue to emphasize that the most that you could lose is 100% of what you had invested, and so that should be part of your calculation in terms of whether you would be wiling to completely lose everything that you put into bitcoin, and if it takes you a while to build up your bitcoin holdings, you may well start to have quite a bit invested into bitcoin but then also there could well be appreciations in the BTC price that contribute towards bitcoin occupying a large part of your investment portfolio as compared to any other assets that you might have whether that be only cash (cash equivalents) or if you might have some other assets such as property, stocks, bonds and/or commodities, and yeah I am not referring to holding shitcoins, but there could be some folks who don't really have access to making some of the other traditional investments, so they end up looking into shitcoins, yet hopefully do not end up investing more than 10% of their bitcoin holdings into shitcoins, especially since shitcoins are already correlated to the performance of bitcoin (meaning that they are only able to survive if bitcoin does well), and a lot of shitcoins are either affinity scams on bitcoin or otherwise providing little value.. at least in the sense of considering them as long term investments that you could sit on for 10 years or longer.

A lot of the concerns of possible negative scenarios for bitcoin can be addressed by position size, which also could end up having some trade offs in which a guy might have concerns about bitcoin so he holds back in his investment into bitcoin by being a bit less aggressive than what he otherwise could be, and so then if BTC prices end up going up, then he may start to feel regrets that he had not invested more aggressively, but those are the kinds of trade-offs that each of us should be more than willing to accept, and also part of the power of nature of bitcoin's asymmetric bet.  There might not even be any need to be overly aggressive to still be able to profit stupendously from investing even fairly modest amounts into bitcoin, and surely that has been the case historically, and there is no reason to conclude that bitcoin asymmetric bet nature is not going away, even if some of the upside profit potential has already been absorbed.. .. and there are also no guarantees either.. which is also part of the nature of any asymmetric bet.

Where (when?) have we heard that one, previously?


Main problem with your rendition is that hash does not lead BTC price, even your historical assessment regarding the 2021 price drop...

But hey whatever, you are free to believe what you like.


Your "strong" defense of the topic bolsters my earlier assertions regarding that it is likely pretty damned close to irrelevant..

hahahahaha

I have a problem with your seeming assertion of inevitability of sub $50k... I am not going to claim to know anything about where the BTC price is going to go, but we are still not even out of no-man's land (which starts around $55k and the pump actually seemed to have had started around $53k-ish), so it is not necessarily going to be easy to get $50k or even sub $50k... even though surely there are several bears who would really get wet dreams out of such, but the bears don't always get there their way, since if they did always get their way, we would still be sub $500... Remember the 6-ish months between November 2015 and May 2016, there were so many folks saying that supra $500 was never going to happen again.. and you see how that ended up playing out..


Hahahahaha


Yeah, but so what?

Why would that even matter?  We surely don't give any shits about bitcoin's dominance in coinmarket cap in these here parts or do we?


Soon.^tm


Dear fan(s):  It is nice to be remembered so fondly.


I am going to stick with my tentative sense that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, since we still are in no man's land.. so we would have to get below $55k before I might change my tentative sense.. .. so as a ballpark idea, we have to be right around 55%-ish odds for up..

Hi shocked.


You are really a BIG party poop.. I must say.

We can hardly say that the halvening was a flop..

Holey fucking shit.. Had you not even noticed that we had a new ATH about a month prior to the halvening?

Many of us should be feeling quite good. .and you are looking for sub $50k or $40k, but remember in October/November, you were looking for $20k-ish, and how did that work for your "predictive powers"?  So far?

And gosh your assertion about ETFs stopping in their buying is way fucking premature.. They are barely getting started.. In the USA, there are all kinds of RIA (Registered investment advisors) that are barely getting authorized to offer the BTC spot ETFs. .and institutions are barely finding out that bitcoin spot ETFs are being made available to them.

I will admit that sooner or later you are going to end up being right.. and then you will tell us "I told you so," but really those ongoing downward predictions coming from you must considered as a kind of comedy..   No?


That is way too low for your ooops.. I misread your post..

Maybe what comes first Sub $44,444 or new ATH.. that would be a more interesting poll.. and I am really having trouble believing that we will go below $55k and then below $50k.. even though I surely understand that anything can happen, but we have to be somewhat realistic in the kinds of numbers that were are suggesting to even be reasonable "in times like these."

Let me start over.  That would be too soon to get an ATH before the pages reach 33,333.. that is 2-3 days so perhaps over the weekend.. but jeez fillippone.. you must be delirious!!!!!  nohomo

You think that the odds for $50k are very high?  greater than 60%?  I am not even sure if they are that high... but hey, I tend to be someone who bounces around with 50/50 predictions in regards to up versus down (and personally it seems to me that we are still in no man's land, which means (from my thinking) that the odds for up are greater than the odds for down.. especially in the zone of $55k-ish to $82k-ish), but yeah, I will admit that we did end up getting into no man's land quite soon (quicker than expected), but that should not invalidate the no man's land thesis.. at least tentatively that there is ongoing UPpity tendencies and pressures within this zone.. , and currently it seems that the price is bouncing back from the so far low of $56,500 just from yesterday.. so sometimes folks get too worked up about believing corrections are going to keep going, but then maybe the momentum is going to change.. I am not claiming to know.. but I would not be that confident that $50k has high chances as you seem to be presuming from some more or less normal correction levels (so far).

Today (in our upcoming tables), the 200 Daily Moving average is going to start to print ATH numbers... Interesting how those lagging indicators work.

And, it would be nice if we were to end up back in the top 100 for the USD/BTC pair by the end of today (for our next table) too.  We seem to be very close right now towards being able to get back into the top 100, with $60,169 as our current 100th place holder... so that would surely mean getting some trade volume in the supra $60ks.. and if we could get up to $61k or $62k, then that might help to ensure getting that daily trade average back in the top 100.

Who knows.. the day is still young, and we have right around 21 hours remaining for the day's tallies to close.

FTFY

Since you were describing what I say, I thought that I would attempt to correct what you said.. since it would not be necessary to invest into shitcoins, but some guys are unable to resist the temptation to invest into shitcoins (and yeah maybe invest it not even the correct word since getting into shitcoins likely requires an in and/or out strategy, but surely there could be some guys who buy shitcoins and just want to hold them for long periods, even similar to how they are thinking about bitcoin, which seems a mistake, but some guys will come to those kinds of conclusions or be tempted into getting into shitcoins based on their talking points or whatever)...

so if they are able to at least have some kind of a shitcoin limit they might be in better shape than many of the guys that I had seen in 2017 (and yeah even later times) that would say that they were all into shitcoins or that their bitcoin position was only 10% or 20% of their shitcoins, which really sounds dumb now, and to me, it even sounded dumb then, but a lot of guys were either not investing at all into bitcoin, or they would ONLY have a relatively small bitcoin position since they were feeling as if they needed capital for the various shitcoins that they were fucking around with.  .. Of course, not all of them ended in disasters, but gamblers don't tend to tell you about their losers.. hahahahahaha

One of the BIGGER factors is discretionary income rather than investment portfolio, even though surely the already existing investment portfolio can make differences in terms of where someone is in terms of BTC accumulation as well as other assets (and hopefully we are not referring to shitcoins in terms of being anything that would be very substantial in anyone's investment portfolio).


Why would there need to be an exit plan?

sure I understand the idea of having general outlines of a plan that includes timelines and things like that, and I also understand that with anything that we invest into, we should have some ways to sell what we have invested into, so we could get nervous if on ramps and off ramps seem to be drying up.. or there are attacks on self-custody.. or exchanges are being attacked or even the exchanges might be rug pulling customers... so yeah, sometimes even having a few avenues of being able to get in and out of bitcoin, those could dry up and cause frustration for folks getting uncomfortable to hold something without really having clear ways to be able to sell what they hold... not that they would need to exercise the option to sell any, but it remains comforting to know that sell avenues are available, and no one really likes getting caught up in any investment, whether bitcoin or anything else.


There may be some folks who are fairly new to investing, so they get into bitcoin and they had never invested previously, so if they try to treat bitcoin as if it were extra cash, they may well get frustrated by its ongoing volatility, so yeah, with investing into something like bitcoin it becomes more important to make sure to have emergency funds, reserves and a float.. and to be able to manage those things in terms of how aggressively the person might want to invest into bitcoin.


That is true.  Even though there is likely no need to be very organized when first getting started into bitcoin, there likely are needs to make sure that you are somewhat organized in being able to continue to invest and to continue to hold as you mentioned.


Yes.. there can be ways to both set some goals and limits, but also to know that you are free to change your mind at any time because each of us is in charge of our own finances, psychology and investments, and so if we come into something like bitcoin and we might tell ourselves that we have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, but at the same time we know that we could abandon the investment at any time if the circumstances were to be appropriate... or if new information develops.. but surely if we might come to an investment like bitcoin with a longer investment timeline, we also might attempt to take a position to reflect that timeline, whether that is about some early lump sum investment amounts or ongoing DCA or buying on dips, and surely if we have some hesitancies about the investment, then we might want to invest smaller amounts, in comparison to if we were to have more conviction then we might want to invest more aggressively into it.

We are not in an "anything" thread.

We are in the bitcoin section of the forum.. so why try to suggest that the strategies would be the same for any of them.. to be suggesting that you would treat bitcoin the same as a shitcoin or as a meme coin.

The fact of the matter is that bitcoin is the only of the group that should be considered a long term investment... the others are pump and dumps, which means in and out strategies..

Yeah, some folks try to act as if you could apply the same strategies to shitcoins as you could apply to bitcoin, but that seems pure dumb, and you are promoting such pure dumb within this bitcoin thread.  Are you not?


The correction of the last few days surely should have helped to inspire some confidence to newbies into bitcoin in regards to continuing to employ a DCA strategy and/or perhaps buying BTC on dips and/or lump sum investing into BTC too.. Even though surely we can never really know how low the dips will go and/or how long they will last.


I am not sure if that is a good way to talk about the timing of the cycles, since you seem to be talking as if the cycles are guaranteed or if they have to follow the same pattern as they have in the past, even though surely I do tend to be a fan of they cycles and also we really have no reason to be getting bearish in regards to the mere fact that we are around 7 weeks into a correction off of our most recent ATH of $73,794.. which surely we had gotten down to nearly 23.5%x, and currently as I type this post we are bouncing around 20% below that ATH price, which surely is not really very much out of any kind of normal behaviors in which the correction could go lower, or it could be over.. I am not going to claim to know those kinds of things, yet it still would seem that anyone who is feeling like a low coiner who has not accumulated enough BTC, I see no reason to be waiting for lower prices, but I would have said the same thing 7 weeks ago.. so yeah, there is a bit of a need to buy BTC if you don't have enough, and if prices are 20% lower than what they had gotten to in recent times, then that should seem reasonably fair to engage in some kind of BTC accumulation. 


Well.. no matter what when people have not bought yet, then they need to buy at any price, otherwise they are not prepared for UP.  Currently, since we are in a 20% price cut, there might be more of a dilemma for those who hav e already been buying to figure out if they should buy some more or not.  I never suggest waiting for those who are brand new to bitcoin, even though it is likely true that the more that the BTC price is running, the more that a newbie might feel more comfortable to start out more slowly and to save some of the more aggressive DCA for buying on dips... so it can be difficult to know where the BTC price is at, especially if we look from October to now and we see a price rise of $25k-ish to our current price, and so there could be some hesitation from newbies in terms of getting started that may well not be warranted. and so they will end up having to blame themselves if they choose to wait rather than getting started..


Yeah, but fuck chart analysis and other coins.. who cares about that nonsense?  Figuring out to buy BTC needs to focus on BTC rather than getting distracted into shitcoins, and I doubt that even very much chart analysis is necessary in bitcoin. Sure get started, and maybe start out a bit light while getting used to building a bitcoin position, but even starting light might be a bit of a problem, yet individuals should be attempting to figure out their own individual factors (which I label as 9 factors), whether they are brand new to bitcoin or if they might have ONLY been in bitcoin for a short period of time.

I am not sure why anyone would share any of their seedwords - even if the wallet is empty.. .. but you are using this kind of a seemingly sloppy (and unnecessary) revelation as potentially to show that you are going to be able to identify yourself to be the same person as you were earlier (in terms of being in control of the keys of a wallet that you decided to gratuitously give 10 of the words..

So you are saying that you have all 24 words, but you decided to share 10 of them and their exact location, so now you have 14 words that no one knows, and yeah, that is probably still close to impossible to brute force without getting some more clues.

Another thing.. photos of our seed words should not be taken.. Think about it... if somehow the unedited version of that photo were to leak.. yeah. .you are saying that the wallet is empty.. but you still seem to be engaging in a sloppy practice to be taking pictures of your seed words.. My understanding is that seed words should be kept in analogue format.. but I will say that there are some things that some folks might do digitally, but could be discovered down the road. in order to figure out private keys... or maybe parts held digitally and other parts held in analogue so they have to all be combined.. so I am not claiming to know all of the answers, but just surprised that anyone would share any of his seed words when that would not even be necessary... because you could just say that you found your seed words... or that you found 10 out of 24 of your seedwords, or whatever the claim that you are making is.

Of course, you put the idea of "skilled" trader.. so you could say that the "profitable" trader will make money.

So fucking what?

The punchline is that an overwhelming of normie newbies into bitcoin should not be getting involved in trading and/or even tempted by trading, and so what that there are some traders who will be profitable, it is nearly irrelevant to what almost any normie newbie should be doing.

The main thing with a normie newbie is to get started in BTC, to build a BTC position, and the overwhelming majority of them are going to outperform the any trader, whether skilled or otherwise just by regularly and consistently buying BTC, and the longer they do that, the more likely it will be that they would out perform the trader.

Tell me about yourself usekevin.  Have you matched or exceeded a straight-forward BTC accumulation strategy for the time you have been into BTC?

If we look at your forum registration date, if you had started buying $100 worth of bitcoin per week since your forum registration date, you would have had invested right around $57k and you would have accumulated about 64.7 BTC, so surely you would be right around 65x in profits.  Have whatever fucking around with trading that you have been doing over the years put you in an equal or better position than 65x in profits, currently?  You can see the calculation of dates and amounts at: https://costavg.com/.

I say that the best thing to do is to stick with BTC accumulation, and if you are going to be playing around with trading, then don't trade with anymore than 10% of the size of your bitcoin holdings, and don't be cheating either, so when you lose that money, don't replace it with bitcoin and continue to drain the long term bitcoin portion of your holdings.

Yeah, I know that traders/gamblers cannot resist, so they may well not be able to limit their trading to 10% of their bitcoin holdings.


Fuck the trader.  We are not even talking about trading in this thread, but you seem to want to idolize traders.. part of the problem of a professional trader, for example, is that he may well be living off the proceeds of his trading, so just to do as well as someone who is stacking sats, he should also have some kind of a separate fund that includes setting aside BTC so that he is generally building as well, even if he might be living off of the profits of his trading, to the extent that is possible, including being able to make money during up periods and down periods.. so call many of us pessimists, to the extent that we should even be talking about traders in this thread.


What the fuck are you talking about now?  I thought that we were talking about bitcoin, and now all of a sudden you seem to be talking about something else?  Are you talking about shitcoins?

And if you are talking about bitcoin, then why do you need to use the word cryptocurrency?  Are you trying to sound smart?  If you had not realized, when you use a word like "cryptocurrency" you have all of a sudden gone into a place that no one is going to know what the fuck you are talking about.  Yeah, if you are talking about trading and then maybe it makes sense that it might not matter which kind of asset you are trading if you are figuring out some kind of an angle in regards to how to make profits in terms of bouncing around between various shitcoins.. yet again, we are surely neither talking about trading nor about shitcoins in this thread...

If you bring it back to bitcoin, then what is your point?  A trader gets into bitcoin and then uses his savings to get in, and then he let's it run for a while and then he cashes out?  Is that part of the point that you are wanting to make?


You are speaking generally also and you also seem to be presuming profits in dollars.. so yeah, price goes up and then the trader has dollars to either consume or to reinvest... so what?  You also realize that extra skills are needed for trading versus investing?  People are not just going to be able to pick up the extra skills, even if we were considering trading to be something that is something that might be profitable and/or more profitable than just buying bitcoin and stacking sats through the years.


You are way off topic now..  You are saying spread out over various coins in order to potentially balance out the bear and bull markets.. and even that hardly makes any sense since shitcoins are correlated with BTC, yet I do understand that shitcoin traders will have their various theories regarding when shitcoins will pump as compared to bitcoin.. but still we are not talking about that nonsense in this thread.  

Again, go back to my earlier question?  Has whatever you been doing with your fucking around with trading and/or shitcoins performed better than a straight-forward DCA strategy into BTC, which for you would had been around 65x in profits.. but instead you are talking in vague ways, which causes me to suspect that whatever you have been doing has not come even close to performing as well as a strict and straight forward BTC accumulation strategy through DCA.. and yeah, if you had not started right at the time of your forum registration, you could have had even started a whole cycle later since mid 2017, and you would have had still done pretty well in your BTC investment up until now.

So you have been registered on the forum for nearly 11 years, yet let's go with a 7 year investment strategy of $100 per week, which would have had resulted in about $36.6k invested, and right around 3.6613 BTC. Not as good as investing for 11 years, but still not too bad, and maybe your current trading and shitcoin strategy might not have had been able to perform that starting later strategy.. so maybe you should tell us how your portfolio has performed over the last nearly 11 years, so we can attempt to figure out if you might know what you are talking about, or if you have largely underperformed straight-forward and strict BTC DCA practices.

I would phrase the matter differently, and I would think to invest into anything, whether bitcoin or anything else, there should be a certain level of confidence that the odds for it going up are greater than the odds of going down, and from your perspective such odds are greater than 50/50, but yeah, there are a variety of scenarios of marginal performance in one direction or another or great performance in one direction or another, so in some sense, as long as you do not hedge, then the most that you can lose is 100% (and perhaps the opportunity costs of missing the ability to invest into some other asset instead of bitcoin).

Part of the appeal of bitcoin remains that it seems to have very good chances for really high levels of payouts, and surely there could be some variations of the very high payouts that are less profitable, but still quite profitable, so in that sense bitcoin remains one of the best asymmetric bets that are available, but it is still just a bunch of probable scenarios with varying levels of probability and it is likely that people are not going to assign probabilities the same, so then we also have asymmetric information in the sense that hardly anyone owns any bitcoin, so even if they know the word, they likely don't know what it is, otherwise they would own some.. .so in that sense, a large number of them are either going to die first, or they will end up coming into bitcoin later, whether they want to or not.. and sure, we also have ongoing attacks upon bitcoin, too... so there surely can be confusion for anyone regarding whether bitcoin remains a good investment - surely an aspect of the asymmetry in the bitcoin-related information, and investors into bitcoin are likely to receive payments for both their having such information about bitcoin and also their acting upon such information by stacking sats.


It is not a zero chance that bitcoin would either go to zero or some other variation of going down from here rather than going up, so if bitcoin were to continue to spiral downwardly without ever recovering and if you were to keep buying bitcoin and it never recovers, then surely in those kinds of circumstances you would end up losing, and even if they might be low probable outcomes, those are not zero possibility outcomes.


Selling too much too soon.. yeah.. and then also trading and/or using margin.... but yeah, so far, historically, those who have either held or just continued to buy on a regular basis  and errored on the side of holding and not selling, they have so far always gotten into profits, and truly that is completely true for everyone when when we are at all time prices... and the last time that we were at all time prices was around 7 weeks ago... yet for sure, right now, as I type this post at $59,244, we are right around 20% below ATH prices... so there would be a small grouping of folks who are not currently in profits.


For sure, you are not going to get any quibbling from me on this part.. there are a lot of ways that newbies should be able to figure out their position size so that they can mostly invest and/or continue to invest when they are establishing their initial position in bitcoin, and surely some people take longer than others to really establish a position and/or to stick with it... and surely since 2014 or so, I have been saying very similar things to people in the real world.. and they hardly every listen, and there always seems to be certain amount of negative or questionable things going on around bitcoin that will scare normal people from getting involved in bitcoin, but surely a measured approach should resolve these kinds of matters, which also brings us back to DCA.. which also newbies seem to even be reluctant to engage in a DCA kind of an approach.. because if they get into something, they seem to want to figure out a way to get a reasonable stake, and surely having difficulties concluding that DCA is one of the better of ways for almost anyone to get into a long term investment.. even if the first few years might feel a bit painful - especially with the bitcoin's volatility... but yeah, getting over the hump of coming up with a plan and then taking actions (and then following through) can be tough for a lot of folks.

Google this: "Snitches get stitches"^**


 

**by the way, please note that I am not threatening any of you tattle tales.

no one is suggesting that you've got to HODL forever and doing that will mean you are enslaving your funds or more likely that you're being unreasonable with your investment. planning is very necessary as you continue stacking your Bitcoin because at the end of the day, you've got to make plans regarding your exit from the system and there is no way you won't take your profit at a certain time but what's the issue is talking about taking your profit when you've not built a good portfolio in the first place.

Every one has an exit plan and it could range from making plans like; I will DCA for a period of 10 years, during which I should have been able to stack up at least $48k worth of Bitcoin (that's if you're DCAing $100 per week). By then I should have finished everything about studies and started up a small family of my own and if the needs comes up to execute a particular project I have longed planned for, I will be certain to have gathered the financial resource that I need to executing that project  from my compounded stack and if that's my accumulation goal, I might as well sell at such point and use it to fulfilling those dreams I have. even after DCAing for the said 10 years, you've got to ask yourself the question if it's necessary to take up your holding after such timeframe and depending on the individual involved, your investment plan can be as low as 4 years or even 20 years but as you continue in your stacking and as events unfold in the Bitcoin ecosystem, you should be in the best position to know if you HODL for 4,10 or 20 years.  at the end of the day, investing into Bitcoin isn't to enslave your funds so you don't need to use it at all, it even gets beautiful when you are able to live a fulfilled life in the future from the proceeds of your Bitcoin investment rather than being in a haste to sell now because you have a slight profit out of it. Everyone has his plan and regardless of the advice you get here, you've got to what works best for you depending on the peculiarity of your situation but what's a general situation that is common is that having the thought of selling your holding when you ought to be stacking more Bitcoin is a bad mentality that needs to be fixed if you have an intention of building up a good portfolio in the long run.
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I agree that there might need to be some goals that go out into the future, but I doubt that it is necessary to frame those goals as "exit" strategies, because sometimes long term investment don't necessarily end up getting sold, but instead they are merely managed in accordance with situations that are in existence at the time in which there might be some needs to make adjustments, whether it is is merely having those funds as extra back up funds or whether there might be withdrawals of the assets, whether in manners of sustainable withdrawal, rakes or maybe systems that involve withdrawal of principle... and even if there might exist some frameworks of plans and goals from the start, there can be some indefinitiveness in regards to plans that are 10-20 years or more down the road, including abilities to adapt the plans along the way.. which surely might not even intend for exiting from the investment absent some blackswan like scenarios or other not likely circumstances that could end up playing out (and also might not exactly be within any framework of needing to be able to be planned in advance).

For sure, we cannot necessarily know in advance  in regard to which courses of action are going to pay off better, and surely over the years, bitcoin has been a kind of asset that has been valuable to accumulate, so those who have errored on the side of mostly accumulating bitcoin have done better than those who might have been focused on either accumulating dollars are maybe not very clear in regards to the value of accumulating and holding bitcoin, which likely is going to continue to be true... even though also we know that past performance does not guarantee future performance, even though bitcoins investment thesis seems to continue to get stronger.

You left out the number of days for Obulis, so the amended report will not be picked up (and also the day should be two digits rather than 1 digit), unless you or someone fixes it, and I am not fixing any more reports for other peeps in these here times.


I watched it, but it made me tired just watching, which I am trying to say that there surely are guys on another level...

By the way, the guy (ThenX?) does show his strength.. but surely his neck seems quite thin compared to the rest of his body - and there surely are guys who build themselves through exercise, and his having a thin kneck causes me to consider that genetically he is very skinny, so he did not get his build through genetics as much as continuous exercise, and it is not easy to know about supplements that might be taken, including steroids that would enhance physique.


You have a couple extra spaces in there and you are missing the number of days, which maybe was meant to be 3?  (also I see other members mentioned it to you).


If you want your results to be in the table, then you need to put your results in the proper report format, which in this thread, you can see other members doing that.


Yes.. Join us, and try to do at least 10 pushups per day, otherwise no one is going to take you seriously and you might not get included in the table.. ..

I would suggest starting out with 5-10 per set and 5 sets per day and then working your way up to higher number of pushups in each set.

You can also do modified pushups, which would be from your knees or perhaps standing and leaning against a wall.. and of course hopefully with the goal of improving your strength, fitness and ability to do more pushups... which might even contribute to a better physique, too.

---

As far as my personal pushups go, yesterday I was on a streak for a record day, yet I ONLY ended up doing 3 sets for the day which I had right around 64 days of a streak of doing 5 sets per day, and I even had time to do two more sets yesterday, but I kind of got caught up doing some other stuff and I just forgot to fit in the two more sets of pushups.  Oh well that's o.k.  I still had 190 pushups yesterday, and yeah only three sets which was 69, 61, 60.. could have been a record day for quantity.. but too bad.

100k,JayJuanGee,87,16840,2024-05-01

I am still potentially on course to be able to get an average of 200-pushups per day by my 100th day of pushups, but I would have to do at least 243.08 pushups per day for the next 13 days... .. So that is more than possible, even though I surely reduced my yesterday's amount by around 100 push-ups, and I also have so far preferred to limit the number of my sets to 5 per day (at least so far).  There is a bit of stress to keep these requirements upon myself.

I am not sure if you are saying that correctly... because sometimes for newbies diversification is a kind of security blanket of not really knowing what they are investing into, and so yeah, sure most people don't know, and even people who invest into bitcoin, sometimes do not really know, so even though some of us might say to stop fucking around with shitcoins, there can be a perception that the bitcoiners are biased and we are merely pumping our bags.. .. so there is some kind of need to build some kind of a conviction in regards to the asset in which we are investing, so frequently if there is doubt about bitcoin, then there is going to be receptivity to both the shitcoin talking points, but also shitcoiners will also frequently be pushing the benefits of diversifying just in case bitcoin does not work or that some of the shitcoins might perform better than bitcoin and/or various other talking points, which frequently will sound convincing to a newbie.. including the "need to have an open mind".


I agree.  It is better for people who are starting out with a relatively small amount to build one first before adding anything else, and there likely is no rush to add anything else, but there may be some need to balance cash amounts with the bitcoin amounts in order to figure out levels of aggressiveness in regards to how fast to attempt to accumulate a sizable bitcoin position... and yeah, some folks might not have options to establish a sizable position in less than 5 years and some of them might take closer to 10 years before they start to feel they start to need to diversify... but yeah, a person can become more informed about himself and his preferences to diversify while he is building his bitcoin investment.. and he might not know exactly in advance when he is going to start to feel needs to spread out his investments a bit more.


Sure.. There are going to be questions (or calculations) regarding how much he puts into the investment and then how much the investment grows (if at all).. so the amount of growth in the investment could also affect his decision in regards to how to treat it or whether to reallocate or to let it ride or even whether to put new cash into bitcoin versus perhaps identifying some other place to put new cash in order to feel more comfortable.


Sure you might be learning from reading, but if you are actually actively trying to put the DCA and other money management ideas into action including figuring out your own budget and making sure that you do not overly spend your discretionary income, then you are likely going to learn a lot more by putting these kinds of ideas into practice and seeing how it works for you, and surely some folks should be making sure that they start out with small amounts so that they realize that they are not going to have access to that invested money for 4-10 years or longer, and so as they get used to setting aside such money, then they might start to feel more comfortable to increase the amounts and it might not be as shocking if they have already gotten used to the idea of not dipping into their investment and just continuing to add to it, whether it is currently in profits or not.


Well, the 200-WMA currently is moving up at a pace that is right around 40% per year, and so it can slow down in its appreciation rate or it can go up faster if the BTC price goes up faster, and so for sure the BTC spot price is going to get close to the 200-WMA again and perhaps even go below it, yet it is difficult to expect the BTC spot price to get within 25% above the 200-WMA or lower within the next 12-18 months.. (even though right at this moment, the BTC price is ONLY around 68% higher than the 200-WMA - see here).

Never say never, but we should be careful in terms of any kind of overexpectations in regards to BTC price correction that might not end up going as low as we might expect them to go.