You choose to remain uninformed. There is a no reason nobody else wasted time on this thread and now I feel foolish for having done so.
No reason to leave! Our debate was just getting heated!
This is probability and odds my friend.
Say you have 10 rounds:
A and B both get new work and round ends in 30 second.
Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the probability of both occurring is: P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)
A: 42.9 s/share: Extrema: 10, if every card finds a share before 30 seconds. Will average to ~0.7 shares / card.
1 share: 0.7^1 x 100% 70%
2 shares: 0.7^2 x 100% = 49% (70% chance on two cards)
3 shares: 0.7^3 x 100% = 34.3%
4 shares: 0.7^4 x 100% = 24.0%
5 shares: 0.7^5 x 100% = 16.8%
6 shares: 0.7^6 x 100% = 11.8%
7 shares: 0.7^7 x 100% = 8.23%
8 shares: 0.7^8 x 100% = 5.76%
9 shares: 0.7^9 x 100% = 4.03%
10 shares: 0.7^10 x 100% = 2.82%
*note: this does not repeat. For one card to find 2 shares in that time is exponential growth.
B: 4.29 s/share: Extrema: 10 if it finds a share < 3 seconds every time. Will average to ~7 sometimes 4 sometimes 10
In order for that gap to be filled A would have to have the same # of shares submitted as B.
It is almost certain that AT LEAST 6 shares will be found in 30 seconds.
Shares 7 8 9 10 | | s 4.29 3.75 3.33 3.00 | | P(i) 0.999 0.874 0.777 0.699 | | P(i)^n 99.3% 34.1% 10.3% 2.8% |
Conclusion:Given n trials of this:
If every trial ends 30 seconds after each card submits their hashes -
A: 70% of the time, the cluster will submit 1+ share.
49% of the time, the cluster will submit 2+ shares.
and so on.
B: 99.3% of the time, the cluster will submit 7+ shares
34.1% of the time, the cluster will submit 8+ shares
and so on.
As you see, the odds are against the single card submitting under 6 hashes in that allocated time. Whereas the 10 card setup odds suggest that will happen 11.8% of the time.