Who wouda thunk?

In recent weeks, I have been considering ways to be more sympathetic to the various dilemmas of institutional investors, though.. when it comes to their potential considerations of investing into BTC. 

B/c if you think about big investors, they would likely want to invest considerable sums into BTC (cryptos), if they could get approval for such... then they would likely invest hundreds of millions or more (which may still only be a small percentage of their overall managed portfolio).. and then we know that even investing 100 million would likely cause a price spike... and even some logistical difficulties getting that many BTC in one pop...... or even to get that many BTC over a week or two.

Another problem that these institutional investors seem to have (including mouth pieces like Peter Schiff) is the psychological barrier problem in which they have feelings that if they were to invest into BTC, they would be giving their hard earned money to people who do not deserve it... ... that seems to be part of the reason why they keep asserting ponzi scheme and Winkelvoss brothers all are given lots of negative press and labeled continuously as a couple of undeserving whiners rich-brat abnormalities.

In other words....... HODL, HODL, HODL, HODL.... !!!!!!!!

We may NOT even see $569, absent some kind of jarring news...

-1

I do NOT really have a problem with the one year from now framework... or even 2 years from now framework.  Actually, most of us in this thread expect that there is going to be a lot of action in the bitcoin space in the next 1-2 years... and probably it is fairly certain that we are going to know one way or another with bitcoin by 2 years....  Even 2 years seems like an eternity in bitcoin (or crypto currency) time.... but 5 years is seeming way too abstract and open for contemplation.... which could be a massive variety of possibilities, besides bitcoin.... or even a bitcoin 2.0 that is fully developed and networked....

In essence, I am thinking that it is too amorphous to be speculating about 5 years... and more grounded to be considering bitcoin in terms of 1 to 2 years.

YEAH>>>>> I want an avatar.....

Yeah.. but some people are in the $700, $800 or more range, and will it matter for them?

Trading with bitcoin has been interesting last couple of days... b/c price has been dropping fairly considerably...

Of course, if you know or have a strong inclination that the market is moving upward, then you would NOT necessarily employ DCA.. .you would front load... to the greatest extent that you could afford... and of course, the more confidence you have, maybe the more you may leverage other assets to really go balls to the walls....   I would rarely employ such a balls to the walls method, personally.

I am suggesting that DCA would likely work better when there is considerable volatility, and the investor doesn't really know which way the asset price is going to go.  Also, DCA works pretty well when the asset is trending downward.. but the investor doesn't really know how long or when that downward trend is going to end.. .but expects an upward movement at some future point... that is also unclear as to when, exactly.


Otherwise, I do NOT really claim to be any kind of expert on DCA, except that I generally tend to employ some version of DCA in my various investments.... Maybe b/c of my fairly conservative risk aversion and possibly due to lack of confidence in exactly how well I can predict on a day to day basis concerning the price direction of various assets?

Why wait until tomorrow?  OH yeah.. Thursdays are pump days, No?

Personally, I think that dollar cost averaging works on anything - so long as the price of the asset goes up at some point.  B/c even in the scenario that you describe of staying at $300 for a long period.. then just keep buying once a month or once a week or whatever is your time interval.... sooner or later your average buy in price will approach $300.

The problem would come if the price is on a never ending downward trajectory b/c even though your average buy in price continues to go down, the price of the asset never goes up.... .. but at least you would probably still be able to recover quite a bit, unless the asset suddenly goes to zero, before you recognize the need to cash out.

I have had an approximate budget that I have allocated a certain quantity of fiat to invest into BTC... which was meant to be on average $4-5K per month for 7 months.... approximately, with a goal of front loading the BTC investment, somewhat.... then, of course, I would need to reconsider at various points whether I believed that I was somewhat on track, and I have largely stuck with my initial allocation strategy. 

I'm certainly NOT the fed in terms of how much fiat I can afford to throw at this particular situation.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

1

We do NOT really know for sure that there is going to be additional falling of the BTC price....b/c otherwise I would sell.. especially if it is really clear that there is a few percentage in there.. maybe 5 or 10%.. and maybe a lot of us would sell if it was really clear...  $580 would be getting to the 5% level... if there were confidence in such.... ... but maybe the confidence needs to be more or the level of adjustment larger - especially if we were to be getting to the 10% or more levels.. which would be around $550...

People are putting out these projections... but I wonder if anyone, besides whales, are really putting any money into their inclinations... many of us seem to be hovering and waiting for some action.. afraid to buy and afraid to sell.      

Probably, several of us have been burned in the past by our perceptions of these kinds of down trending situations b/c certainly it appears that the BTC price is going to fall more, but then it ends up to be at its bottom... b/c some whale  or bot jumps into the fray and butts are burning... 


My finger is hovering on the buy trigger...  (I buy through Coinbase which is NOT always exactly in line with Bitstamp)

I just do NOT know how soon before I should pull that trigger b/c, of course, I would prefer to make such purchase at the lowest possible price.... so as I type we are hovering between $605 and $608.... which also is approaching a more than two week low.. ... so the current BTC price seems relatively attractive to me... but then again I am thinking that as soon as I buy, the price will thereafter decide to decline further.. and then I will likely be kicking myself b/c I would have preferred to buy at $580 or at $560 rather than at $605... if we are pretty confident that the price is going to go to one of those lower levels..

Your prediction of demise is far too early...   And, you seem to be assuming facts that are NOT in evidence... ... b/c to have a loss of complete confidence, the level of failure would have to be pretty foundational....   B/c the invention is quite amazing, if you really begin to grasp the non-duplicating nature... ...

Also, I would hardly call $600 or even $300 a failure... Maybe if we were to start getting in the below $50 double digits, we may need to reconsider whether a crypto failure is in the mix of considerations.

This is proof that you are on the right track to troll this thread...  b/c if anyone were taking your side, you would have to question your effectiveness in being an irritatitant, except your new kind of buddy, HDBUCK seems to be on your side.

+ One Dozen

Whenever I see a statement about 100% right or wrong, red flags go up for me.... and I begin to wonder if there could be some EXAGGERATIONS taking place.. .maybe?