Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

\We are possibly witnessing a collapse of their shadow banking industry which is leading to a scramble for liquidity.
...
This could trigger a BTC sell off.
...
Longer term, ... competitive currency debasement.

BTC is so marginal that I don't think there's going to be much correlation between on-shore BTC and the on-shore credit market.
I would expect fear to drive acquisition of counter-party riskless assets, rather.

]I don't think the central banks are making the Smoot-Hawley mistake again.  The debasement is synchronized and cooperative, to avoid the appearance of relative inflation.  All the majors are on a rocketsled to zero.  100 of your zeros equals 50 of my zeros, now and forever.  See, the dollar is *strong*.

[ScrapOfCat]

+9

+X

good call... we need to go to Roman numerals to conserve space.

Let's save more and go binary

I'll start.

0

1

101010

[surfer43]

+9

+X

good call... we need to go to Roman numerals to conserve space.

Let's save more and go binary

I'll start.

0

1

101010

101011

[JayJuanGee]

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

[billyjoeallen]

BTC is so marginal that I don't think there's going to be much correlation between on-shore BTC and the on-shore credit market.

We'll see. Most BTC that was bought on credit will likely be liquidated. It could go either way, but if too many Chinks go broke, you will see liquidation of a lot of assets.
Cyprus cubed or divestiture. It'll be an interesting ride.

[cAPSLOCK]

+9

+X

good call... we need to go to Roman numerals to conserve space.

Let's save more and go binary

I'll start.

0

1

101010

101011

1010011010  (boo)

[mooncake]

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

You can only buy so much unless you are the Fed.

[Threebits]

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

Average buy-in is also my buying policy. It seems USD 600 is fairly low but who knows to which area it will be heading down and how long it will last at that area?

 For example, if price goes down to area usd 300 and remain for 1 year, I will be very frustrated with my average buy-in policy, as my stock is already heavy, repeating last average shares compensate very little  to my cost, unless I increase average share by 3times or more. Regrettably my financial position does not allow 3x.

Does a simple average buy-in works on bitcoin?

[Jeezy911]

Well this feels like a good buy spot. I have no sceince to back my claim. Probably going to get 1 bitcoin tomorrow.

[Threebits]

BTC is so marginal that I don't think there's going to be much correlation between on-shore BTC and the on-shore credit market.

We'll see. Most BTC that was bought on credit will likely be liquidated. It could go either way, but if too many Chinks go broke, you will see liquidation of a lot of assets.
Cyprus cubed or divestiture. It'll be an interesting ride.

How do we know a lot of Chinese buy on credit?  Chinese traders buy mainly for its volatility (or rising price) . They liquidate because of low volatility rather than credit. Methinks. This seems also an explanation for very low volume. Make sense?

[Threebits]

2) with a crashing RMB, BTC could be a better store of value.
-------------------------

Indeed, if rmb is to crash, buying bitcoin is a good policy, not only because of the yuan rate, but also of free transit in case of any currency transportation ban.

But till today, I do not see this happening. Huobi's price remains lower for past weeks, in which period chinese yuan went down by nearly 3%. This probably means Chinese traders only speculate on bitcoin price itself, not the yuan rate, yet.

[JayJuanGee]

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

You can only buy so much unless you are the Fed.

I have had an approximate budget that I have allocated a certain quantity of fiat to invest into BTC... which was meant to be on average $4-5K per month for 7 months.... approximately, with a goal of front loading the BTC investment, somewhat.... then, of course, I would need to reconsider at various points whether I believed that I was somewhat on track, and I have largely stuck with my initial allocation strategy. 

I'm certainly NOT the fed in terms of how much fiat I can afford to throw at this particular situation.

[JayJuanGee]

Yay...err, no. I can see we're heading for under 600. FML, I bought at 670.

I think that a lot of us are in a similar situation with average BTC buy-ins  in the upper 600s and even in the 700s or higher.   I am currently at $686 average BTC buy-in rate - which includes my transaction fees, and even though I find it a little bit frustrating to be at this seemingly low BTC price level, I am continuing to use these low BTC prices as buying opportunities to buy more BTC than I had expected to be able to buy on a fairly regular basis... and gambling that ultimately the BTC fundamentals have NOT changed in a negative way and if anything on an ongoing basis the BTC fundamentals are getting more and more solid with more and more big investors coming into the BTC arena and nearly daily basis good news pertaining to more and more ways to liquidate BTC. 

Surely, we have a ways to go in ease of use of BTC and inspiring public confidence regarding security of their coins, but if you are into BTC for an 18 month to 24 month period or possibly more, we are going to be looking pretty pretty at that point b/c I have only been willing and able to invest so much fiat into BTC at any one time in the front end of my investment....   Accordingly, my quantity of BTC is much larger than what I had expected it to be, at this time.

Average buy-in is also my buying policy. It seems USD 600 is fairly low but who knows to which area it will be heading down and how long it will last at that area?

 For example, if price goes down to area usd 300 and remain for 1 year, I will be very frustrated with my average buy-in policy, as my stock is already heavy, repeating last average shares compensate very little  to my cost, unless I increase average share by 3times or more. Regrettably my financial position does not allow 3x.

Does a simple average buy-in works on bitcoin?

Personally, I think that dollar cost averaging works on anything - so long as the price of the asset goes up at some point.  B/c even in the scenario that you describe of staying at $300 for a long period.. then just keep buying once a month or once a week or whatever is your time interval.... sooner or later your average buy in price will approach $300.

The problem would come if the price is on a never ending downward trajectory b/c even though your average buy in price continues to go down, the price of the asset never goes up.... .. but at least you would probably still be able to recover quite a bit, unless the asset suddenly goes to zero, before you recognize the need to cash out.

[JayJuanGee]

Well this feels like a good buy spot. I have no sceince to back my claim. Probably going to get 1 bitcoin tomorrow.

Why wait until tomorrow?  OH yeah.. Thursdays are pump days, No?

[Davyd05]

DCA, hmm had I just thought buy and hold in sept .. I would have alot more btc

[JayJuanGee]

DCA, hmm had I just thought buy and hold in sept .. I would have alot more btc

Of course, if you know or have a strong inclination that the market is moving upward, then you would NOT necessarily employ DCA.. .you would front load... to the greatest extent that you could afford... and of course, the more confidence you have, maybe the more you may leverage other assets to really go balls to the walls....   I would rarely employ such a balls to the walls method, personally.

I am suggesting that DCA would likely work better when there is considerable volatility, and the investor doesn't really know which way the asset price is going to go.  Also, DCA works pretty well when the asset is trending downward.. but the investor doesn't really know how long or when that downward trend is going to end.. .but expects an upward movement at some future point... that is also unclear as to when, exactly.


Otherwise, I do NOT really claim to be any kind of expert on DCA, except that I generally tend to employ some version of DCA in my various investments.... Maybe b/c of my fairly conservative risk aversion and possibly due to lack of confidence in exactly how well I can predict on a day to day basis concerning the price direction of various assets?

[magicmexican]

I expect ~600 to be a local tripple bottom for the time being unless some news will hit

[barbs]

Wish we could find Mark Karplese and send him a thank you note..

[seriouscoin]

Tonight glory is upon us!





Join me....

[joburgtaxi]

Tonight glory is upon us!





Join me....

What are you talking about man ?