If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011) I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too) before we Choo Choo again currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish... likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena... After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas...... No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks. My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS..... So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points. Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits? Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations... |
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People often joke that "America has the worst form of government on the planet except for all the others." It ain't perfect.
And it certainly isn't better than all the others. It has strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other large nation-states, and those are a matter of taste. There are small nation-states which have systems which are vastly preferable to the U.S. system, in my opinion, but they are generally special cases. Iceland is not too bad. Norway is fairly tolerable. I could almost stand Scotland. Singapore is rather decent. Chile, quite nice. Conceivably Paraguay. But then I've not lived there long enough to see the worst aspects, to judge how deeply they disturb me. We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after. +1 Lets use Litecoin as BTC would give the foundation to much a hold on the nascent state of the free  And BTC is already bought up by the ukraniens ARE there going to be any girls on this fictional? OR just a bunch of techie and nerdy guys? HEHEHEHE |
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I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.
Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:
What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.
Is anyone here able to clarify this?
IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc.. ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values. |
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Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....
Do you have a different sense of the current situation?
My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction. That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality. I do NOT see the world like that. ... I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want. What's fantastical about the observation that predictions align with wishes? Unless you've got a fantastical crystal ball you can't know what's going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that a set of facts or rumour will be interpreted many ways, and people on these message boards will usually interpret them to support their wants. The MTGox news is the just the latest example: bulls see it as bullish in the long run, bears see it as bearish. It's not fantasy, it's just observing the bias we all have. IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... .. It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... .. |
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for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins
1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish
2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)
and one option that does not make sense
3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating
There are probably some other variations here.... HOWEVER out of the variations that you describe, it does seem number 1 is the most likely..... .. but there could be some variation or combination of 1 and 3... ... or like some of the fiasco situations that are described in which there is a partial loss that was back in 2011... and then GOX et al... gamble and lose with investor's BTC b/c they are in fiat at times, such as november 2013... when BTC prices are doubling and tripling... |
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If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011) I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too) before we Choo Choo again currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish... likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena... After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas...... |
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http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish. I agree that we should be a little bearish.. at least for a week or two ... b/c of this news... HOWEVER.... BTC prices have remained extremely resilient to this news... which causes me to continue to assert that there is considerable pent up demand for BTC.... Regarding the point about this seemingly probably heist (based on GOX's own renditions of the situation) is humongous and enormous, this surely is NOT as humongous and enormous as it is being made out to be in the above post...... The reality is that we still live in largely a fiat world... and in terms of overall world scandals, this one is NOT very high in the whole scheme of things... even if it adds up to more than $500 million dollars in current value.... ... NONETHELESS, i get and probably even agree with the point that BTC is going to go up and probably double in value within the next six months to a year... accordingly, this seems to be heist... is going to add up to more than a billion in about a year... BTC prices are going to be going up.. even with 6% heist of the coins... YET ... we are still a bit unclear about whether the gangsters are going to be able to profit from the coins.. The most plausible scenarios remains that the gangsters are probably going to be able to profit from their heist of these 750K -ish of BTC... |
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http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "
So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up.. WE are going up long before any Mt. Gox pay outs play out... We are going up within the next week... we may go down before up... though.... maybe down to the lower $500s area... or maybe at most down to the upper $400s.. just quickly... .. I am questioning whether we are going to go DOWN any more than what we already have.. below... the $550 range.. |
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Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....
Do you have a different sense of the current situation?
My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction. That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality.... I do NOT see the world like that. There are people who are long term investors of bitcoin and there are day traders..... Additionally, there are people who abstain from investing in bitcoin... I happen to be one of many persons who is bullish on bitcoin, and personally, i am investing in bitcoin based on my sense that bitcoin is going to go up in value and price.... this has very little to do with what i want or wish or whatever is in my head... it has to do with a prediction... based on objective facts... and also how I think things are going to play out... Certainly, I am NOT an insider or a technical person; however, i have looked into some of the dynamics and read various bitcoin informational sources. My sense of the direction of bitcoin has more to do with what I have studied and what I predict will be the direction... Of course, I may be wrong in my prediction..... frequently, there are winners and losers when it comes to investments... or even part winners and/or part losers... depending upon how much the person has to invest and timing and maybe even some luck or even questions about whether a person who is interested in investing has means to make such an investment allocation. I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want... |
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Whoever predicted a gradual drop appears to be,right so far...
gradual drop until when, though? through the weekend... then spurt to the moon.... . and how far is this drop going to go? To $520 or lower than that? I'm buying in when we go below 350. But only if I don't become more bearish by then...
Sorry, then you are going to be left behind.. b/c we are NOT going below $450... I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on.
Gox has been sufficiently resolved... at least the range of issues is narrowed... surely GOX matters will drag on but the GOX situation is kind of contained now that the exchange is closed.. and we have the bancrupcy filing which gives us an explanation of what had occurred. Surely the bancruptcy explanation is insufficient and filled with inconsistencies (and likely outright lies), but those statements of facts and the various effects on investors is NOT going to be sufficiently negative to hold back the pent up demand to go up with BTC prices which upward movement will likely take place beginning about next week, if NOT sooner... |
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... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.
Based on? Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments..... Do you have a different sense of the current situation? |
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We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.
WE can still be in a bull market without getting grandma involved.... |
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Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.
So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.
Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?
Maybe someone has been quietly liquidating 750k coins I AM also thinking that the liquidating of BTC has been going on for months... Last hope for Bitcoin: fake buywalls
THEY WON`T PROTECT YOU!!
Their only purpose is to lure suckers in to place their bids above them, when enough bids
have been built, we will get a level lower. slow and painful
There is no such thing as "fake" walls. 
Aren't walls always fake? If I've learned anything from my years in bitcoins, it's that all walls everywhere are fake.
Walls are simultaneously fake and real, until observed. Then they become one or the other, depending on the testing conditions. This is called Quantum Speculation. It's science, bro. No its game - theory or called common sense...you are either with us or against us I think that it is called leveraging what you have to your best advantage (to the advantage of yourself personally... and damn the rest) There is no brotherhood... unless you form some kind of team/pool to accomplish an objective for the members on the team as a unit. No..if the aim of bitcoincommunity is to collude to fuck the newbies and each other over...then BTC is no alternative as a currency its a chain-letter....if there is not the revolutionary common aim to enthrone the powers that be by forming a money-supply that is guarded by trust then we are dealing in sour lemons and and the dollar kills on! I agree with you about some common desires of the bitcoin community to change the way systems work... etc etc.. but those kinds of lofty goals do NOT need to apply to the concept of the exchanges... except maybe to the extent that there may be system put in place that only allows a certain amount of exchange at any one time or something like that... during the phase that BTC is less than a 100billion dollar market cap, it is going to be fairly easy to manipulate... even gold with a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap is manipulated... ... You know the market is bearish when...
so true. i just wish there were more honest bears, worthy of respect. so often the "theses" of "bears" is fabricated, predicated on disinformation, or pure FUD. it makes it very hard to find actual, useful, bearish analysis. in fact, i have developed an unfortunate bullish myopia by being innoculated against strong bearish cases by the myriad of weak bearish cases. i have to constantly correct for my own bull blinders. VERY well stated.... many of these bears are spreading disinformation and have their heads stuck up some asses.. maybe even their own... Sometimes what is curious to me, is why they are hanging around these forums... just get out of bitcoin and go on your marry way... rather than educating guys who are more educated about bitcoin and/or other cryptos... NONETHELESS, I do NOT claim to be any expert... yet frequently I can tell when I am being hoodwinked... lmao bud, without any disrespect i advice you to be very careful with whom you tend to believe in here. Being a bear doesnt necessarily means you dont believe in Bitcoin. Its a very harsh world that one of money and be sure they'll ever be heists and deception. Better be skeptical and pragmatic. If not realistic. I have NO intention to take sides in some kind of internal or personal battle... I was merely in agreement with Aminorex... b/c I have run into very similar dynamics in other cryptocurrency discussions and also in other political discussions... I am NO spring chicken when it comes to these kinds of discussions. Although an interesting thing that I find about bitcoin is some of the crossing of the political lines... so the dynamic remains interesting... even with my own exploration of my own beliefs... for example, I do NOT really have problem with government, except to the extent that it is manipulated by big money... yet there are a lot of libertarians in the bitcoin community... and ultimately lines cross and these matters remain complicated and contradictory.. .... in case you've missed it... Good night people!  This must mean that you are a bear... NO? or that Bears are winning.. or some other crazy thing like that... ? |
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No sorry I sold them on BB to some another Pal who still believed in those "guarding" poeple at
bitcoinfoundation....but still BTC is worthless in the hand of crooks...you´ll see soon enough bottom 74
dollars !
we will see 74 USD/BTC if the 2011 scenario plays out but that is fine with me 2011 was my lucky year especially after I jumped on to the train @ 3 USD/BTC There is almost NO chance that the 2011 scenario will play out. This is NOT 2011... Lot's has happened with BTC since 2011.. I will concede, that maybe, just maybe, we may make it into the lower $400s - but only if some additional bad news drops... Based on what we currently know, the furthest that we are going down would be upper $400s, and we may NOT even make it down that far - since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC. |
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this will be more like the 2011 correction and less like the April 2013 correction
it willl take a long time for fresh money to poor back in to the system (if it does at all)
THAT's crazy-talk... there has been all kinds of new attention towards BTC.... within a week or two we are getting back into the $750 to $850 range.. and within 6-9 months we will be new all time high.. maybe even in the $1500 range.. Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.
What price are you banking on? $520-ish? or some other amount? Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else. That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs? This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into. Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe? The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ... seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band. probably be trading that range for a while
I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ... My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC... and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications... No you haven´t....who sold those 750000 BTC at Gox under 300 dollars and to which account were the money withdrawn.....who was the 10 k wall 3 hours before bitidiot came out ? Can you even fathom the ramnifications of this selling? Come on ...we are here to speculate! Surely we are here to speculate... MY MAIN point is that we have been made A LOT more aware of what is going on... than we were one day ago... At least NOW we have a bankrupcy filing and an outline of facts and a general direction... before that, we were totally speculating on all kinds of scenarios...... surely, there can still be quite a few scenarios... but at least we are Narrowed down a little bit in the range of possibilities, no? No ! The plug is pulled....no fresh flesh is coming when a ponzi dies......and if the crooks at the top come out scot free of it...BTC dies as well ! I guess we have a differing view of things... LOTS of doom and gloom that you seem to be expressing... MtGox seems to have been a ponzi scheme.... I will concede that... . but NOT bitcoin... ... Also... there are much worse scandals in fiat that take place on a very regular basis... though of course this GOX situation will get a lot more press than those fiat scandals... .. anyhow, BTC is going to come out of this and it is going to continue to attract investors..... absent some extreme government measures... that undermine or delay the success of BTC... |
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Guess the bottom? I say 480´s
When? Over the weekend? Saturday? |
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I'll start buying when 500 breaks
When are we gonna get there, though? This has really been slow and painful... and really barely going down... I was expecting something a little more drastic... .. in order that we can get it over with and thereafter begin our slow journey moonward... at least in the mini-moon territory of $750-$800 and pause there for a while - maybe 3-6 months - before going to the $1200 to $1500 arena... |
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You know the market is bearish when...
so true. i just wish there were more honest bears, worthy of respect. so often the "theses" of "bears" is fabricated, predicated on disinformation, or pure FUD. it makes it very hard to find actual, useful, bearish analysis. in fact, i have developed an unfortunate bullish myopia by being innoculated against strong bearish cases by the myriad of weak bearish cases. i have to constantly correct for my own bull blinders. VERY well stated.... many of these bears are spreading disinformation and have their heads stuck up some asses.. maybe even their own... Sometimes what is curious to me, is why they are hanging around these forums... just get out of bitcoin and go on your marry way... rather than educating guys who are more educated about bitcoin and/or other cryptos... NONETHELESS, I do NOT claim to be any expert... yet frequently I can tell when I am being hoodwinked... |
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Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.
So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.
Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?
Maybe someone has been quietly liquidating 750k coins I AM also thinking that the liquidating of BTC has been going on for months... Last hope for Bitcoin: fake buywalls
THEY WON`T PROTECT YOU!!
Their only purpose is to lure suckers in to place their bids above them, when enough bids
have been built, we will get a level lower. slow and painful
There is no such thing as "fake" walls.
Aren't walls always fake? If I've learned anything from my years in bitcoins, it's that all walls everywhere are fake.
Walls are simultaneously fake and real, until observed. Then they become one or the other, depending on the testing conditions. This is called Quantum Speculation. It's science, bro. No its game - theory or called common sense...you are either with us or against us I think that it is called leveraging what you have to your best advantage (to the advantage of yourself personally... and damn the rest) There is no brotherhood... unless you form some kind of team/pool to accomplish an objective for the members on the team as a unit. |
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Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.
What price are you banking on? $520-ish? or some other amount? Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else. That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs? This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into. Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe? The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ... seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band. probably be trading that range for a while
I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ... My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC... and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications... No you haven´t....who sold those 750000 BTC at Gox under 300 dollars and to which account were the money withdrawn.....who was the 10 k wall 3 hours before bitidiot came out ? Can you even fathom the ramnifications of this selling? Come on ...we are here to speculate! Surely we are here to speculate... MY MAIN point is that we have been made A LOT more aware of what is going on... than we were one day ago... At least NOW we have a bankrupcy filing and an outline of facts and a general direction... before that, we were totally speculating on all kinds of scenarios...... surely, there can still be quite a few scenarios... but at least we are Narrowed down a little bit in the range of possibilities, no? |
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