Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...


likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH  HA!!!!!!   The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!......     The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

[mmitech]

off-topic, about Gox and all the BS going around, I find it unbelievable when early adopters Like Roger and Erik and everyone else asking people to just forget their money and move on..... yea you can move on, you have millions already so what if you lost few thousands, try convince this guy who lost +4700BTC

I feel for the people that had funds at MtGox, and I think it is important to be sympathetic to these victims. 

But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

yes bring justice and tell us what really happened and prove it then try to resolve it with all what you can, when all this fail then people will try and only start trying to move on.


do you know what happened in gox ? I think no right ? then why to move on?

[V2Rocket]

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

[Solarstorm75]

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

+1000000000000000000000000000

[JayJuanGee]

for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins

1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish

2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)

and one option that does not make sense

3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating

There are probably some other variations here....  HOWEVER out of the variations that you describe, it does seem number 1 is the most likely..... .. but there could be some variation or combination of 1 and 3... ... or like some of the fiasco situations that are described in which there is a partial loss that was back in 2011... and then GOX et al... gamble and lose with investor's BTC b/c they are in fiat at times, such as november 2013... when BTC prices are doubling and tripling...

[JayJuanGee]

Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....      

Do you have a different sense of the current situation?

My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction.

That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality. I do NOT see the world like that. ... I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want.

What's fantastical about the observation that predictions align with wishes? Unless you've got a fantastical crystal ball you can't know what's going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that a set of facts or rumour will be interpreted many ways, and people on these message boards will usually interpret them to support their wants.  The MTGox news is the just the latest example: bulls see it as bullish in the long run, bears see it as bearish.

It's not fantasy, it's just observing the bias we all have.

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified...   People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect...  but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be...   .. 

[analytics]

thread on tracing stolen coins.  All the data likely is there to trace them.  All it takes is some cooperation with exchanges.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=494761.msg5451149#msg5451149

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=494554.0;topicseen

Wonder what would happen to bitcoin price if the community showed it could police and find these thieves who thought they were anonymous.  There are troves of metadata out there that allow for constructing a social graph.  It's just a matter of doing it.
This feels more like what groups like bitcoin foundation should be spending coin/cash on doing if they want bitcoin to grow  (facilitating and helping connect the right parties).   If the community does it, then full court press on external regulation should ease as well.  And bitcoin should grow in general as some of the distrust would fade if thieves can't hide and the community shows they don't want them to.

[tailor]

If the coins were not stollen recently and entered the bitcoin economy long ago, then the missing 750,000 GoxBTC is bullish medium and long term, because the effective monetary base of bitcoin just decreased by 6%.  If 20% of those who thought they had coins at Gox, buy new coins (and move them to cold storage this time), that represents 150,000 BTC of sudden demand.  

Theories based on an influx of money to buy lost coins are wishful thinking at best.

Where does the money $75M for the 150K coins come from? People don't re-buy lost investments like that - the money invested is gone. Add in the likelihood that most of the stolen coins were mined, not bought, which even more unlikely to be re-bought.

[JorgeStolfi]

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

Right on.

Which appears to be what the "core bitcoin community" desperately wants in the case of MtGOX.  Why aren't they clamoring for a criminal investigation?

Bythe way, it should be easy to find and demonstrate specific instances of use of the "malleate request and get refunded" trick. Perhaps those examples can be found even without the cooperation of MtGOX? Have any such examples been published, or is that still only a theory?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Yololintian]

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...


likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH  HA!!!!!!   The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!......     The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

[tailor]

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified...   People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect...  but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be...   .. 

The reality is people far underestimate their own biases in their thinking. People may be informed, but how they use the information will be affected by their biases. We all filter information, and tend to dismiss or undervalue information that doesn't support our theories, and overvalue information that does. It's human nature.

[dreamspark]

IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..

It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified...   People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect...  but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be...   .. 

Your caps key keeps getting stuck, I think you should get it checked out. Oh and the full stop key as well.

[Davyd05]

ButterflyLabs has disappeared?
Did anyone notice the huge jump in network hashrate in the last day or two? I mean HUGE! (It spiked from 27,000Th/s to 35,000Th/s yesterday)
I wonder if they cut and ran with all the new kit, and are mining with everyones preorders?
Wouldn't surprise me one bit, after how they played the last generation.

Coincides with the huge jump in found blocks for ASICMiner...  ?  (which promptly returned to its former insignificant level)  Seems too early to be testing the new chips, but it is a possibility.

The hash rate jumps all the time between phasing of inefficient machinery and new shipments of fresh miners + the regular variance.

IN other thoughts, if we can make it to Monday with a nice steady climb to 600 I'd be happy if not perhaps it just time to send more fiat to an exchange.

[zyk]

...
But what is wrong with learning from the experience and moving on?  Do you have a better option?

Lessons from *earlier* experiences have taught me that "moving on" lets scammers continue scamming.

Right on.

Which appears to be what the "core bitcoin community" desperately wants in the case of MtGOX.  Why aren't they clamoring for a criminal investigation?

Bythe way, it should be easy to find and demonstrate specific instances of use of the "malleate request and get refunded" trick. Perhaps those examples can be found even without the cooperation of MtGOX? Have any such examples been published, or is that still only a theory?

Its all covered up cause the truth is in nobodys interest who holds bitcoin .....shortsightedly...

But everything can easily be found in the trading records leading up to the pulling of the plug

by the early adopter insider scam...the FIAT - accounts where the money of the gox selling went

offer the names of the criminals ...no blockchain analyses needed...wait for the same thing happening at the

other exchanges....there can´t be any meaningful new money expected, as long as those who are messing

with bitcoins are not indicted.....

[mmitech]

2014-02-28
[14:07] <prof7bit> Hi, can you now please explain in more detail what was/is going on?
[14:09] <MagicalTux> well, we filed for the japanese law equivalent of what you know in the US as chapter 11 bankruptcy
[14:11] <prof7bit> I would like to know what are the future plans. especially what is with the BTC balances, people are saying it is not included in the liabilities at all, is this true?
[14:12] <prof7bit> I had 100 BTC in my account
[14:13] <prof7bit> and almost no fiat
[14:15] <MagicalTux> it's not included because we'll try to return btc as btc
[14:15] <MagicalTux> so we delayed decision to include btc in liabilities
[14:18] <prof7bit> Is this even possible after a loss of such giant amount of BTC (are they really lost, what exactly does the "temporarily" and "not yet lost" mean? BTW I and many others would also accept their BTC balance converted into dividend paying shares of ownership  of a newly opened exchange, did you consider this possibility as well? Or is there really a hope to recover the BTC completely?
 
[silence from here on]

[Davyd05]

No one has fucked with bitcoin's security, I had a fucking hour long argument with a friend just last night. Mtgox's security breach is separate of bitcoins. You trust your cash with a fraudster the same thing happens to your cash lol.

Mtgox closing is a shame because they have failed so many loyal customers, to an extent I believe they we're a bit overly loyal as I wouldn't have trusted gox with my money since 2011 and on...main reason I vetted all my choices for exchanges before depositing any fiat. The coins I currently leave on the exchange is an amount I can personally lose otherwise they'd be in my OWN wallet.

There is no stopping BTC-ATMs popping up globally, these people will drive a second rush. They don't even have to keep the coins or fiat on the exchange.

[delphic]

2014-02-28
[14:07] <prof7bit> Hi, can you now please explain in more detail what was/is going on?
[14:09] <MagicalTux> well, we filed for the japanese law equivalent of what you know in the US as chapter 11 bankruptcy
[14:11] <prof7bit> I would like to know what are the future plans. especially what is with the BTC balances, people are saying it is not included in the liabilities at all, is this true?
[14:12] <prof7bit> I had 100 BTC in my account
[14:13] <prof7bit> and almost no fiat
[14:15] <MagicalTux> it's not included because we'll try to return btc as btc
[14:15] <MagicalTux> so we delayed decision to include btc in liabilities
[14:18] <prof7bit> Is this even possible after a loss of such giant amount of BTC (are they really lost, what exactly does the "temporarily" and "not yet lost" mean? BTW I and many others would also accept their BTC balance converted into dividend paying shares of ownership  of a newly opened exchange, did you consider this possibility as well? Or is there really a hope to recover the BTC completely?
 
[silence from here on]

If that really is Karpeles, he is talking bullshit.

"[14:15] <MagicalTux> so we delayed decision to include btc in liabilities"

When you are filing for bankruptcy/protection, you don't have latitude in deciding what your liabilities are. You have to come clean with the Court.

[Hawkix]

Can you, under Japanese law, include BTC in liabilites?

[wetroof]

Their liability figure for all we know could just the actual dollar/yen withdrawals it wants to make good on,  and dollar/yen deposits it plans to refund - taking into no account internal customer btc/fiat balances.

I think it would be signifiant to know if Gox is planning to disclose a record of its customer account balances, or if it will try to keep that private.