Gox is making a huge amount of fees during the manic trading that has been going on since the BTC withdrawal issue.
Especially in BTC. Karpeles is smiling.
Pigs are being slaughtered very hard this time. GoxBTC at $100ish was a HUGE deal. I really cannot understand those who sold near double digits.
I thought that GOX was NOT charging fees during the withdrawal freeze period? The only reason
Please see my thread "problems besides mtgox" to learn about the 20 other things going on besides mtgox. read it and agree with most of it. Bitcoins not finished, but people paying + $600, are just clinging on to their dream in my opinion.. I might come back when BTC is back around $100. feel very sorry for those that brought and held at + $900 regulation issues legal issues technical issues community trust issues where would serious new investment come from under these conditions? You appear to have a very incomplete picture of BTC and the network effect..... Ultimately there is quite a variety of investments into BTC, and they are NOT just speculators... and ultimately, if BTC were to take on just a fraction of the work of gold which has a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap, or a fraction of the dollar which has about a 15 trillion dollar market cap, BTC's value is going to skyrocket.... all the items you listed as barriers are NOT sufficient to undermine the value of BTC and the potential for it to take over some of the functions of gold, the dollar or other assets. |
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Ok, I found the thread, and I stopped reading at #7, after kicking myself for not stopping at #1.
Then you resumed reading this thread at page 5006... Your description makes almost NO sense, unless just by coincidence.... but then again, coincidentally, you are likely NOT going to see this post which is my response (on page 5011) to your post on page 5006.. since you claim NOT to be reading this thread. |
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I don't get why the rest of the markets (Non-Gox) go up if there is really a remote possibility of Gox enabling withdrawals, Can you imagine the amount of bots that are ready to transfer everything from Gox to BTC-e, Stamp, etc and close the arbitrage gap? The bigger the gap is the bigger the benefit (and the crash in the rest of the markets).
IMHO you should be in fiat on the rest of the markets and wait to buy when the arbitrage starts...
I am thinking that what is going to happen is that Gox will announce some kind of limited withdrawing system (high enough to inspire confidence, but low enough to prevent GOX whales, if such exist, from engaging in massive dumps) ... maybe the withdrawal limit would be up to 10-20BTC per week or something like that, and all of the BTC markets will go up upon the news... then when Gox BTC holders begin to dump their BTC, those dumps will NOT create enough of a negative effect to offset the positive news b/c the withdrawal limit is sufficiently low at Gox. |
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Which reminds me, MABtc, you haven't posted any of your good TA lately. Got some to share?
I posted this a couple days ago, still looking for bearish signals. We hit my first target and corrected, now re-testing the first down trend line. I expect resistance at $640-650, and am looking for a reversal there. However, can't be sure that we won't see a longer break from the down trend than that -- a trip into the $700s is possible. But as Gox rises, the correlation weakens... I don't think we'll see a sustainable rise from here. And I definitely don't think the bear market is over. agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.
A week? That's pretty optimistic even for a bear.  I think we still may see some bounce from oversold conditions. This still on target for now:  But TA takes a back seat to repeated Goxxing. We'll see what happens upon another update re: withdrawals and how closely Stamp follows... I agree with you that we are going to be bearish for a while.. but once there is any clear tendency towards clearing up the GOX matter, then BTC is going to go to the moon... double in value within a short period of time... there is a lot of pent up demand for BTC ... just waiting for a clear signal... and wanting anything to be good news and willing to let GOX go and still be good news... b/c btc clarity... |
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I can see some smoke behind the hill, and when I put my ear to the track I swear I can hear a faint .......kedang........kedang.......
What is that sound?
Is it a wildfire? is it a construction site? A bird? A plane? NO it's the btc train to da mooooon:DDD But yeah, I damn sure hope this is going to be the long waited trend reversal already. May the force be with us on our quest. The trend upward is NOT going to come until this Gox thing is resolved one way or another... Ultimately , we are going upward... but Gox may drag on us for a while.. before we can truly go upward. |
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BSP is Bitstamp
BFX is Bitfinex
Gox is Gox
BTCE gets 4 letters because it is special.
Thank you for the basic lesson... |
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Tinfoil hat time.
Let's assume for the moment that Gox has been completely manipulated since June (when USD withdrawals were stopped).
Did Gox lead the rally to $1000? Was all price growth above $266 driven by people just trying to get their $ out of Gox? Is the current price of $613 just a sham relic of inability to withdraw fiat from Gox?
Even if you assume that Gox was completely manipulated, part of the reason for the October, NOvember and December rallies was due to the Chinese and the lack of confidence in the dollar. Chinese came into BTC and pushed the prices upward... NO? |
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Nice little dump on stamp.
What is little? 3K BTC? Nice little dump on stamp.
I was watching that. Seeing all these sell orders appear in seconds can i assume it's mainly bots when that happens? For example, if I put my sell order at $2, and I am selling 3 or 4K in BTC, then there will be a rapid decline to fill all the orders.. maybe down from $620 to $500, or something like that..., no? |
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I agree. That seems like significant news. Accordingly, maybe we are going to receive another announcement? By when though on Sunday? Monday? or sometime thereafter? I would think that Mr. Gox would want to announce something, rather than keeping us in the dark, like their last communication of Thursday seemed purposeful to do. |
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U clearly have no idea how good you guys have it there compared to just about everywhere else.
I know it's much worse in the US right now but it seems we've been taken over as well, our countries assets are being liquidated, politicians are corrupt, judges corrupt - they're talking about restricting peoples right to protest (with 2 years jail if you disobey a move on notice), one guy who lives in my city just finished a 3 year jail term for little more than calling Jews racist a youtube video (Brendon O'Connell), we've agreed to bail ins, the news like in the US is just freaking infotainment, no real news.. Yes when you look at the usual options, Australia may be better than most - but I want to be where reality and perception are the same, it may have to be a small freaking island community or something, I don't care, I'm just tired of the lies and corruption. There is NO one place that is going to bring ALL. What's your budget? What's your activities? What's your income? Some people say to earn enough in the 1st world to be able to thereafter retire in a place that is less expense so that your earnings will go further. Volume, what volume? 24 hour stamp volme: 20K... clearly a trap. There are all kinds of resistances in the 600s based on longer charts. Do you really thing we're ready to break through them all just because gox and on this low volume?
LOL. Wouldn't want those sheep who bought at $585 to get slaughtered, right? Go play in your giant triangle. No bull trap frightens you. Bull trap frightens you. Making money frightens you because you might lose it. Were you the hall monitor in middle school? I am anticipating that we are going to linger between $580 and $620... for a while, then maybe we will dip down to $520... and then depending on GOX news and resolution... we may go UP or DOWN from there... but ultimately, we are going UP with GOX or without GOX... but if GOX screws this around a lot, we may linger in the $300 and $400s for a month or two before getting back into the $1,000 price ranges and above... ... where we are likely to go to $2k at some point during 2014 What you are missing is the bigger picture inferred by this testing.
a) Markets don't like uncertainty, don't like seeing exchanges go under because what can happen to one can happen to another. Gox testing reduces uncertainty.
b) Gox testing indicates that they are trying to fix things, not escape with people's money.
c) Gox testing indicates that they might finish said testing and actually resume limited or full service.
The individual price ticks are meaningless, however, collectively, they are meaningful and sentiment might be changing.
Er.... from the comments in that reddit thread, I understood that the transaction attempted by MtGOX was not a test after all, just one of many small transactions that they have been doing since the lock-in. Did I understand wrong? Perhaps the news "MtGOX is testing!" spread further and farther than the "Oops, soory"? of course MT Gox gotta be testing and making some efforts to make an appearance of trying to correct their situation I once worked out that it would cost US$750,000 for one tank of fuel for Greg Norman's yacht.
That sounds impossible. |
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yea I want out of Australia too - I just don't know of any truly independent and non-corrupt place to go to though. There are lots of places to live, besides the Anglosphere .. and if you are worried about acquiring or bringing too much property with you, then leave your assets off-shore and stay mobile.. rent rather than own... and live in a place that has a lower cost of living. .. lots of them.... 190 countries... and maybe more than half could find some suitable arrangement. Let's see whether I got it right: someone noticed that MtGOX made a tiny transaction, which actually was like several others that they had been doing all along since the lock-in; a transaction which had nothing to do with withdrawals, and moreover was rejected by the network because it contained mined bitcoin that was too fresh -- a bug that MtGOX's software was known to have, and which apparently has not been fixed yet. That is why the market suddenly got excited and optimistic, and the price jumped up by 10% in a few hours . Correct?
What you are missing is the bigger picture inferred by this testing. a) Markets don't like uncertainty, don't like seeing exchanges go under because what can happen to one can happen to another. Gox testing reduces uncertainty. b) Gox testing indicates that they are trying to fix things, not escape with people's money. c) Gox testing indicates that they might finish said testing and actually resume limited or full service. The individual price ticks are meaningless, however, collectively, they are meaningful and sentiment might be changing. Initially, I am thinking what the fuck is "Gox testing" and I suppose that there is some kind of plan in which Gox is supposedly moving forward beyond their Thursday communication - b/c that Thursday communication truly did NOT inspire confidence and inspired the opposite and seemed to have been done on purpose in order that manipulation of the markets could be done. What truly serious company would issue such NONSENSE... and expect to be taken serious. The Thursday communication was such a feeling of "fuck you"... that will likely linger.... NOW, you are referring to "Gox testing" which seems to imply that there is some kind of serious plan to move forward and to inspire confidence. When was this announced? |
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My prediction that BSP would be back under 600 by 2pm is not going so well. That's ok I am patient I still think there is nothing behind this rally.
What is BSP? That surprise buy on stamp out of nowhere prolly came from Coinbase. The buy and sell spread @ CB is much greater now.
This buy and sell spread varies, and I attempted to clarify this with them.... they were somewhat evasive, but claimed that their business model did NOT involve arbitrage (and or skimming) that I had accused them of..... I am NOT sure if I quite buy their story, but I was happy to receive an explanation directly to my inquiry. so did any punters get their money into Gox? I would have sent a few $ if it weren't for the 2 week delay last time, I expect it to take longer at the moment.
Yeah, right!!! .. Times have changed.... you would be lucky if the delay is ONLY two weeks. So, a person may gamble and put money into GOX, and then purchase GOX BTC for anywhere between $91 and $300.... and thereafter, HOPE... that s/he gets the money out... or is able to transfer the BTC to some personal wallet. |
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If this gox rally continues, there may be a possible extension of the bull trap to ~660, like so:  This is exactly what I was talking about last night which I was worried about not being there. With it being there, it would be complete with the patterns of previous years. I do NOT see how you are arriving at that prediction. I do anticipate that GOX is keeping us down... however, we cannot really know any specifics b/c a lot of this is in the minds of the botwhales and how they are programmed to manipulate... we are NOT exactly in a free market.. especially, when we are suffering from such a low marketcap and accordingly, whales do NOT need to be very big in order to be able to manipulate the market... ... surely, they are NOT going to be able to prevent the ultimate upward trend.. unless they can destroy bitcoin... somehow.. but we have too much continued adoption and too much govt. tolerance.. at this point, the trend is going to be upward as soon as there are some positive signs concerning the resolution of the GOX situation. |
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Regular people are always left to guess the price, it's whales who are controlling it all the time. That's why I don't like trading BTC vs USD unless I have to like yesterday. I'm small fish there and left to mercy of big guys.
Whales and Bots.... but YOU may be correct that Whales and bots are nearly the same thing. |
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So Gox is still leading the price. Can someone explain this to me. I realize most some traders are pretty stupid, but THIS stupid.
Fixed. The bots, that are programmed by humans, reacted to the price at MtSux within minutes. Why they are set to act when gox does is beyond me. Yes, there is quite a bit of speculating about what has been going on inside of Gox.... surely, the news bulletin lacked many specifics, and it seemed to have been written that way on purpose in order to facilitate panic. Then Gox have there bots skimming or whatever it is that they are doing, and people are going to go along with it to sell, sell, sell.... but they do NOT know exactly when to buy, and the bots have the advantage b/c they can pump in a bunch of resources in order to change the direction of the prices from sell, sell , sell to buy, buy, buy... Regular people are genuinely out gunned... and just guessing at best to try to predict a reasonable turning point. EDIT: It seems also that a lot of us are hoping for the day that BTC has a large enough market cap in order NOT to be manipulated... HOWEVER, that day is probably quite far into the future... Probably, BTC needs to move to a larger market cap of maybe 100 Billion... but even in the scheme of things, 100 Billion remains a pretty small market cap when it comes to the dynamics of manipulation of markets |
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Thank goodness he and his irrelevant and annoyingly long posts are gone.
I did not say that.  Well, that's good to hear. However, Windy, I truly believe kindness, trust and patience are the only way to change someone's behaviour, even their attitudes or beliefs. But all you seem to do here is spread hate and ill-feeling -- it's very sad that a (supposedly) 40 year old (supposed) millionaire feels compelled to act like that towards strangers whose only 'sin' is to disagree with you. Look there are intelligent posters, there are trolls and then there is Jorge, who is obsessive compulsive about when Chinese people sleep and just pontificates on this point for thousands of words a day. He hasn't added Ny value to the forum. He just uses this forum for his own amusement and is yet another clog in the forum wheel that is slowly driving people away. Just go read Ristos thread. So many feel the way I do. The joy here is gone. Jorge, Please ignore the trolls/idiots and keep posting your opinions/predictions about bitcoin. I for one appreciate the different perspective you have as compared to most people on this forum. Ignore the trolls and keep giving us insight we would not otherwise be exposed to. Anyone that thinks bitcoin has serious flaws will be derailed on a forum like this, but the keenest people will consider the criticism and accordingly be a little bit more cautious. Yes, I am troll because I actually believe in the viability of the bitcoin technology. And because I don't consider Jorgi's continual price estimations any sort of real TA. They just seem to state the obvious. Here's the current price and we will probably stay within $20 north or south of that. And here are more stats about when Chinese people sleep. I came to this forum for real substance and real charts and real TA and real speculation. We used to have a lot of that around here. So that makes me a troll now. Since I don't think bitcoin has "serious flaws" and even though I recognize that there are no guarantees on its adoption and growth I am still a troll. By today's forum standards. Your comment is ridiculous. If you feel that there is NOT very much valuable information here, then why DONT you help in that direction of providing valuable information and encouraging others to provide valuable information... rather than doing the opposite? By the way... it seems that we are all just waiting for GOX....... ... surely they are going to stall one more week, no? or maybe allow withdrawals up to 10BTC per week..... I think stalling may work better for them to continue to engage in arbitrage to make up for whatever short-fallings they have..... but that is just the conspiracy side of me speculating. |
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Now here is an interesting one. Blue line Dow Jones Index from 1928-1930, red one is now. Will it follow ?  I doubt that today is going to follow...... we are going to have approximately one more year worth of bullish stock market performance... Certainly, i am NOT an expert... just guessing... b/c history does NOT repeat itself that exactly.... and we have different things going on these days in terms politics, world involvement and even bitcoin, for example... he hehheehehe |
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 What do you think? Is Mt. Gox having "Supplier consolidation and failures"? It seems to be spot on. Looks like we have much room downards left... We are in the start up companies early stage... so lots of room for upward movement still. |
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What if Gox is actually broke and all that selling is just them selling imaginary coins that they dont have to get the last bit of money they can get?
That's the 100 thousand dollar question..... Personally, I suspect that they were engaging in a form of fractional reserve... like is suggested in yesterday's coindesk article: http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/Accordingly, it is NOT an all or nothing proposition in my thinking.. they have some of the coins... but they are trying to figure out a way to make up for the difference in what they have and what they would have to pay out in the even that there were a run on the bank.... I also believe that currently they are (and likely had been in the past as well) probably engaging in some kinds of insider shenanigans to attempt to make up for the coin balance differences through arbitrage.... |
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Seems like we are going to continue to see these kinds of regulation pressures from governments that are forcing banks to shut off these kinds of profitable services. Though sometimes the banks are likely NOT very excited about Bitcoin - anyhow, and they probably feel as if they can make more money by sticking with fiat..... |
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