i dont see us going anywhere but down in movement short term. And I hope and pray that we dont lose another exchange, say for example btc-e. If this happens it is a wrap for btc.
First: the end of another exchange would NOT be the end of bitcoin.. Bitcoin is going to survive in spite of the potential and even the incidences of fraud and/or corruption in various places within (EG seemingly GOX and Silkroad 2 - though silkroad 2 has been much more transparent than GOX regarding that supposed loss of coins ).... Second: At this time, there is NO real and/or material evidence that any other exchanges have been engaged in fractional reserve banking or stealing money or security breaches at any level near what seems to have happened with GOX. And, if audits do take place, and some of these problems exist (which is likely), there is NO evidence that the "problems" are at any level near the GOX situation. Third: the trillion dollar question is whether we go up or down from here... and it does seem, based on the current state of negative news and the impact that negative news has had on the BTC prices, that if there is going to be additional downward movement in BTC prices then that it is likely to be in the next few days.... b/c the longer that this fair stability takes place, the more likely that on-the-sideline investors are just going to jump in at these current prices and there will be a snowballing effect with additional sideline money coming in. At that point, likely within less than the next two weeks, we will be heading upward with little likelihood to return to these current prices in the $500s - except for possible short bursts of flash crashes... from time to time, which seems inevitable with BTC until such time as the market cap gets into a respectably higher level such as above $50 billion ... which is likely NOT too far off into the future... which is very possible to occur before the end of 2014. By the way, a $50 billion market cap on bitcoin would take BTC to around $3500 per BTC... or $3.50 per milibit. This does seem like a lot, and it does seem too good to be true.. and/or pie in the sky. But a $50 billion market cap is only a tiny fraction of bitcoin's potential - in terms of money transmittal, storage of value and currency capabilities. |
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Bitcoin do it already, I don't have time and nerves to wait the whole day, do something already....
BTW watching bitstamp for some time now, bids are going lower, less than 4458 to bring us below $520
I hope so too ... to get to the below $520-ish territory..... but I anticipate.. based on the resistance to go downward that this downward adjustment is likely NOT going to last much beyond few hours... |
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Mark my words, a large whale buy is coming, this will spark a rally similar to the rally after the china crash. There's are many traders waiting to buy back in who are hoping this isn't the bottom yet but have their fingers on the trigger, look at the order book on Bitstamp, buyers far outweigh sellers. There are also many ex gox customers who need to buy back in. Don't get left behind, when it happens, it will happen quickly.
I expect 820 within 7 days, if not more.
less than 50K till 200 that is what in bitstamp order book at the moment, and there is only bitstamp and btc-e for trading now, BTC-e have a very tinny book order, you could bring the price to 0 with 10K dump on BTC-e, dont forget that there is 12 million bitcoin on existence, that 50K against the 12M is nothing . and also if bidders would think that the price at 560 or at 600 is reasonable they would place their orders there, but I see only 9K bitcoin to 500 and 20K to 400 and 35 to 300 and most down less than 200, people base their bids based on what they think bitcoin is worth, and the same works for sellers, they put sell orders on what they think their bitcoins are worth, but at the moment buyers are not voting for $560. IMHO there is no whale that would pump the price just like that, if someone decided to buy 10K bitcoin at a market order, then there is only 3 scenarios: a) pump and dump b) insider trading c) someone who doesn't give a fuck about his money and don't care about buying at 100 or 1000 which means he is not a whale but rather an idiot. You are only talking about the buy end, there are only 18k for sale up to $1000 at Bitstamp, and only 21.28k to $5000. Probably the only way to get a small market reaction is to buy in increments of less than 10 BTC at a time... especially during these low volume times otherwise, even trying to buy 50BTC at a time is likely going to cause upward price momentum. Investors are NOT buying at the moment b/c everyone is waiting for another change... but there is definitely a lot of fiat ready to jump into BTC.. . |
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Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.
What is the point about Walken? Can you explain? I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference. More cowbell! (Walken talks erratically. You type erratically) Yeah, right... a little humor can't hurt.... and thanks for a possible explanation... Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..
Does this mean that BTC will NEVER go beyond $3,200? interesting! |
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After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now... I expect much higher volatility from what we are used... And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011) I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too) before we Choo Choo again currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish... likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena... After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas...... No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks. My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS..... So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points. Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits? Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations... I think that you make some very good points, especially regarding a potential for volatility in the event that there is actually less capital invested and/or circulating in the exchanges. Nonetheless, I remain uncertain about whether the scenario is going to play out in the way in which you describe. At this point, it remains unclear about whether the 750K-ish GOX coins have already been introduced into the overall bitcoin circulation. On the other hand, we have a large number of institutional investors that have likely been chomping at the bits to get into bitcoin; however, they have been holding off in their getting in based on December/January uncertainties about the status of China... and then February concerns about Mt. Gox..... NOW, the China situation seems to be more clear and the Gox situation is somewhat clarified and contained (and I would suggest sufficiently clarified and contained - even though NOT completely clarified b/c some of the story still does NOT quite add up). In that regard, I stick to my guns with my earlier prediction of more likely moving towards the $750-$850 direction - and I remain betting my fiat into BTC accordingly - though of course, I have NO real insider information besides what I read in various parts of the BTC community. |
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YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable? I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points. However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended.
Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin. What is the point about Walken? Can you explain? I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference. |
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I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.
Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:
What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.
Is anyone here able to clarify this?
IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc.. ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values. actually theres probably less then 1 million bitcoin for sale under $5k so it would need less then 10 billion I am NOT sure whether I understand your point completely... For example, we know that gold does NOT really circulate very much... but it fluctuates in price based on perceived value and also that it is considered to be a inflationary hedge and good storage of value.. If you are saying that the amount of BTC in circulation is going to affect how it is priced, I agree with your general sentiment, that the hoarding factor (I don't really like that word, hoarding) is going to cause BTC prices to go up additionally b/c it will cause a demand for BTC b/c of the shortage and b/c people are generally wanting to keep some of their assets in BTC.. For example, for the money transmittal feature of BTC or for various purchases that are being made with BTC, there will be a need for BTC to carry out the transmission of the money or for the purchase.. Let's say that there is a certain amount of BTC circulating 1 million.. as you stated, then those million BTC are used to conduct a multitude of transactions.. , but also people begin to believe that BTC is a valuable asset to hang on to. Accordingly, people may still spend quite a bit in BTC; however, those people will also have an incentive to replace their stored BTC as soon as possible b/c they understand that BTC holds its value well, relative to other assets. |
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IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..
It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..
The reality is people far underestimate their own biases in their thinking. People may be informed, but how they use the information will be affected by their biases. We all filter information, and tend to dismiss or undervalue information that doesn't support our theories, and overvalue information that does. It's human nature. Surely, there is some truth in what you are saying... but personally, I am of the opinion that you give way too much weight within your characterization of what you are thinking motivates people... ... So maybe we disagree only regarding matter of degree rather than the fact that some of this dynamic exists... Also, I agree that some people may NOT recognize the extent to which they are biased in some regards - but generally people are a lot more aware than you appear to be giving credit... ...
IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... ..
It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... ..
Your caps key keeps getting stuck, I think you should get it checked out. Oh and the full stop key as well. YOU seem to be getting distracted by style over substance... .MAYBE, it is just something that you feel comfortable? I would agree with any assertion that style can help to bring emphasis to the substance.. and accordingly, most of my style is on purpose in order to emphasize certain points. However, sometimes, postings may be typed quickly, and the style may be somewhat unintended. |
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If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011) I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too) before we Choo Choo again currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish... likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena... After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas...... No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks. My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS..... So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points. Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits? Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations... |
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People often joke that "America has the worst form of government on the planet except for all the others." It ain't perfect.
And it certainly isn't better than all the others. It has strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other large nation-states, and those are a matter of taste. There are small nation-states which have systems which are vastly preferable to the U.S. system, in my opinion, but they are generally special cases. Iceland is not too bad. Norway is fairly tolerable. I could almost stand Scotland. Singapore is rather decent. Chile, quite nice. Conceivably Paraguay. But then I've not lived there long enough to see the worst aspects, to judge how deeply they disturb me. We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after. +1 Lets use Litecoin as BTC would give the foundation to much a hold on the nascent state of the free  And BTC is already bought up by the ukraniens ARE there going to be any girls on this fictional? OR just a bunch of techie and nerdy guys? HEHEHEHE |
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I've seen many posts and threads about price speculations and hitting 5k per coin.
Now, to try and stay a little bit on-topic:
What are these speculations based on? Althought, I'd say hell yes to BTC being worth $5000,- per coin but I can't really see this happen.
And no, the reason why I can't see this happen is not about the drama caused by Gox.
Is anyone here able to clarify this?
IT is fairly easy to advance beyond $5000 per BTC.. based on market cap and based on BTC taking over some of the functionality of gold or any currency... for example gold has more than a 6.5 trillion dollar market cap and the dollar more than 15 trillion market cap... anyhow there are a lot of currencies that BTC could serve b/c there are 190 countries.. even the international transmittal system has a lot of potential for BTC to take on some of that value.. or the stock market.. etc etc.. ONCE BTC takes on some of this value, its market cap will increase from currently 7 billion to.... whatever amount... IN order to reach $5000 per BTC, the BTC market cap only need to rise to about 90Billion... which is NOT a very high target if it takes on some of these values. |
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Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....
Do you have a different sense of the current situation?
My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction. That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality. I do NOT see the world like that. ... I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want. What's fantastical about the observation that predictions align with wishes? Unless you've got a fantastical crystal ball you can't know what's going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that a set of facts or rumour will be interpreted many ways, and people on these message boards will usually interpret them to support their wants. The MTGox news is the just the latest example: bulls see it as bullish in the long run, bears see it as bearish. It's not fantasy, it's just observing the bias we all have. IN my humble opinion... you are over calculating such biases in people... in some simplified version of the world... NO hating on you... .. It is just that I see your view of human nature as WAY TOO simplified... People are much more informed in terms of their actions and reactions than you give them credit... and they gamble based on their information.. .which may be correct or incorrect... but it is NOT merely some wishful view of the world... as you make it out to be... .. |
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for me there are two legitimate options regarding the "unavailable" coins
1) confiscation by some authority (most likely after all the stuff i read) - short and long term extremely bullish
2) he lost the private keys (even thogh supply is much shorter that is extremely bearish due to the public picture that even the oldest exchange cannot handle the technical issues around the currency, how should average joe do that?)
and one option that does not make sense
3) 840k (!) coins are stolen (without noticing), that is almost 1000 coins per day since the time mtgox is operating
There are probably some other variations here.... HOWEVER out of the variations that you describe, it does seem number 1 is the most likely..... .. but there could be some variation or combination of 1 and 3... ... or like some of the fiasco situations that are described in which there is a partial loss that was back in 2011... and then GOX et al... gamble and lose with investor's BTC b/c they are in fiat at times, such as november 2013... when BTC prices are doubling and tripling... |
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If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011) I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too) before we Choo Choo again currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish... likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena... After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas...... |
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http://falkvinge.net/2014/02/28/the-gox-crater-crowd-detectives-reveal-billion-dollar-heist-as-inside-job/Who took the money?
So, the trillion-dollar question: who took the money? Strictly speaking, we don’t know that yet. We’re talking about a sum of money so large that “humongous” and “enormous” aren’t sufficient to describe it – it’s 6% of all bitcoin in existence, and assuming bitcoin keeps growing to its potential, that means one individual is sitting on 6% of the world’s future trade and retail currency supply. In today’s USD value, such an amount would be on the order of 20 trillion US dollars, or roughly 250 times the fortune of today’s richest billionaire. It’s not exactly hard to see a motive here.
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish. I agree that we should be a little bearish.. at least for a week or two ... b/c of this news... HOWEVER.... BTC prices have remained extremely resilient to this news... which causes me to continue to assert that there is considerable pent up demand for BTC.... Regarding the point about this seemingly probably heist (based on GOX's own renditions of the situation) is humongous and enormous, this surely is NOT as humongous and enormous as it is being made out to be in the above post...... The reality is that we still live in largely a fiat world... and in terms of overall world scandals, this one is NOT very high in the whole scheme of things... even if it adds up to more than $500 million dollars in current value.... ... NONETHELESS, i get and probably even agree with the point that BTC is going to go up and probably double in value within the next six months to a year... accordingly, this seems to be heist... is going to add up to more than a billion in about a year... BTC prices are going to be going up.. even with 6% heist of the coins... YET ... we are still a bit unclear about whether the gangsters are going to be able to profit from the coins.. The most plausible scenarios remains that the gangsters are probably going to be able to profit from their heist of these 750K -ish of BTC... |
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http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-files-bankruptcy-claims-63-6m-debt/"That same document also described fiat assets of $32.43m and liabilities of $55m. The assets include $5m “held by CoinLab” and another $5.5m “held by the DHS”. "
So $21 million in liquidity remains in Gox bank to be disbursed to clients. How much will go back to purchase real coins!  Once gox is done liquidated, we are going up.. WE are going up long before any Mt. Gox pay outs play out... We are going up within the next week... we may go down before up... though.... maybe down to the lower $500s area... or maybe at most down to the upper $400s.. just quickly... .. I am questioning whether we are going to go DOWN any more than what we already have.. below... the $550 range.. |
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Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments.....
Do you have a different sense of the current situation?
My sense is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen, and that looking at the same set of facts most predictions will tend to align with the wishes of the person making the prediction. That is way to fantastical to think that we all live in fantasy worlds.. with our own sense of reality that is NOT really based in reality.... I do NOT see the world like that. There are people who are long term investors of bitcoin and there are day traders..... Additionally, there are people who abstain from investing in bitcoin... I happen to be one of many persons who is bullish on bitcoin, and personally, i am investing in bitcoin based on my sense that bitcoin is going to go up in value and price.... this has very little to do with what i want or wish or whatever is in my head... it has to do with a prediction... based on objective facts... and also how I think things are going to play out... Certainly, I am NOT an insider or a technical person; however, i have looked into some of the dynamics and read various bitcoin informational sources. My sense of the direction of bitcoin has more to do with what I have studied and what I predict will be the direction... Of course, I may be wrong in my prediction..... frequently, there are winners and losers when it comes to investments... or even part winners and/or part losers... depending upon how much the person has to invest and timing and maybe even some luck or even questions about whether a person who is interested in investing has means to make such an investment allocation. I do NOT buy that the world is just made up of a bunch of people wishing whatever they want... |
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Whoever predicted a gradual drop appears to be,right so far...
gradual drop until when, though? through the weekend... then spurt to the moon.... . and how far is this drop going to go? To $520 or lower than that? I'm buying in when we go below 350. But only if I don't become more bearish by then...
Sorry, then you are going to be left behind.. b/c we are NOT going below $450... I'm bearish because this Gox crap is going to grind on and on and on.
Gox has been sufficiently resolved... at least the range of issues is narrowed... surely GOX matters will drag on but the GOX situation is kind of contained now that the exchange is closed.. and we have the bancrupcy filing which gives us an explanation of what had occurred. Surely the bancruptcy explanation is insufficient and filled with inconsistencies (and likely outright lies), but those statements of facts and the various effects on investors is NOT going to be sufficiently negative to hold back the pent up demand to go up with BTC prices which upward movement will likely take place beginning about next week, if NOT sooner... |
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... since there is quite a bit of pent-up desire to put money into BTC.
Based on? Based on approximate three months of various uncertainties in the China ban situation that took us from early December into late January and then the Mt. Gox situation through the month of February.... .... and also based on the fact that the BTC network has been expanding, growing and developing during this time while investors have been waiting on the side-lines b/c of the uncertainties... that is my sense of the situation... and my sense that as soon as some of these uncertainties are resolved.. which they seem to have been largely resolved, we are going moon-ish... or at least suborbital moon into the $750 to $850 range first.. and then into the $1500 range... absent some further impediments..... Do you have a different sense of the current situation? |
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We are in a bull market, if you can honestly recommend your beloved grandma to invest her savings. Otherwise it's pure gambling and everybody should take the risk of losses.
WE can still be in a bull market without getting grandma involved.... |
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