I freaked out and cashed out my initial investment (1.5k USD) + 10K USD. Even SEPA´d the money to my bank so from now on, with the few coins i got left, it´s just play-for-fun  Oldbones - new account |
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For those that still have not seen this Some infos I have gathered regarding: GABI (Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund) for anyone that may not have seen it. ANNOUNCEMENT FROM JERSEY GOVhttp://www.gov.je/News/2014/Pages/CryptoCurrency.aspx
= The Assistant Chief Minister with responsibility for financial services, Senator Philip Ozouf, has commented on the announcement by a Jersey-based investment management company that it has received approval to launch a Jersey-regulated Bitcoin investment fund. Senator Ozouf's statement Senator Ozouf said "This is believed to be the first regulated Bitcoin fund in operation and Jersey is pleased to be paving the way. Fintech, which broadly defines the emerging digital industry in finance, is a sector that I believe holds significant opportunities for Jersey. In April this year, when I presented the Government’s policy framework for the future of our financial services industry, I made it clear that innovation will be central to Jersey’s future prosperity. I also emphasised that Government will offer its full support for innovative measures undertaken by industry and the regulator. “I therefore welcome the decision of the Jersey Financial Services Commission to approve the launch of the Island’s first regulated Bitcoin fund. We are working closely with the Commission, industry and Digital Jersey to help develop the Island as a natural hub for fintech business. We are committed to maximising the benefits and opportunities of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in a well-regulated environment.” Cryptocurrency overview Cryptocurrencies are fundamentally a software code or chain of digital signatures that define units of value. No transfer of any physical money or digital file takes place at the point of transaction as with traditional core currency transactions. The most notable difference between crypto currencies and core currencies is that no group or individual may accelerate, stunt or in any other way significantly moderate (or abuse) the production of money. Most crypto currencies are designed to gradually introduce new units of currency, placing an ultimate cap on the total amount of currency that will ever be in circulation. This is done both to mimic the scarcity (and value) of precious metals and to avoid hyperinflation. One of the commonly known cryptocurrencies is ‘Bitcoin’. Bitcoins are created as a reward for payment processing work in which users offer their computing power to verify and record payments into the public ledger. Called mining, individuals or companies engage in this activity in exchange for transaction fees and newly created Bitcoins. Bitcoins are now actively obtained in exchange for core money, products, and services. The popularity of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has increased significantly as a tool of trade and more recently as an asset class for expert investors. Regulation Jersey has consistently taken a proactive approach in advancing the worldwide fight against money laundering and financing of terrorism. In the area of cryptocurrencies, this approach will not change. Jersey is committed to introducing an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime in this area. Given that the use of cryptocurrencies has evolved at such a rapid pace, and that the user and business acceptance is sharply growing, the Government and the Jersey Financial Services Commission are of the view that an in-depth analysis of the risks posed by crypto-currency needs to be carried out before an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime can be introduced. The analysis of the risks associated with crypto-currency is underway and it is anticipated that the Financial Crime Strategy Group, who make recommendations to the Government on financial crime matters, will be in a position to advise Ministers by the end of 2014. Tax implications Any business or individual receiving an income from any activity involving Bitcoin and other similar cryptocurrencies will need to consider the income tax and GST implications. In general terms, the Comptroller of Taxes has issued the following guidance the profits and losses of a business entering into transactions involving cryptocurrencies would be reflected in the accounts and would be taxable under normal Jersey income tax provisions relating to foreign exchange. with regard to GST, the value of the supply of goods or services on which GST is due will be the sterling value of the cryptocurrency at the point the transaction takes place. Local cryptocurrency use The use of cryptocurrencies locally is gathering momentum with a growing number of retailers currently accepting payment in Bitcoin. As such, Trading Standards have published new guidance for retailers accepting cryptocurrencies for consumer transactions. (Global Advisors Jersey Limited) Daniel Masters ( http://www.linkedin.com/pub/daniel-masters/8/939/197) Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager Director of Trading & Execution Daniel Masters started out in 1985 at Royal Dutch/Shell, where he was responsible for managing a portfolio of North Sea Crude. Moving to The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. in 1987, he pioneered the firm’s entrance into the electricity markets. He structured groundbreaking natural gas deals and was an original participant in the “Contract for Difference” (CFD) market for physical oil in Europe. J.P. Morgan hired him in 1993 to add trading expertise to its array of financial capabilities. Based on Danny’s success in establishing a proprietary trading program, Morgan promoted him to head its global energy trading business in 1997. Russell Newton( uk.linkedin.com/pub/rus-newton/0/419/371) Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager Director of Systematic Model Research & Development Russell Newton began his career as a crude oil trader for Royal Dutch/Shell in 1986. As head of Shell’s futures and forwards trading, he was one of the original developers of pricing models for the Brent CFD market. Rus also worked for The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. and Rhein Oel Limited before joining J.P. Morgan in 1993. At Morgan, he served as global commodities strategist, covering base and precious metals as well as energy. He developed a new derivative trade structures and new techniques for researching, analyzing and modeling markets. J Mognetti( uk.linkedin.com/in/jmmognetti) Mr Mognetti is a director and shareholder of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited. Mr. Mognetti is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Principal, an Associated Person , and a National Futures Association (NFA) associated member of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited and is also approved as a Key Person of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited by the Jersey Financial Services Commission (JFSC). Global Investment Bitcoin Investment Fund Ground Floor Liberation House Castle Street St Helier Jersey JE2 3AT http://www.globaladvisors.co.uk/The Company seeks to achieve capital appreciation through direct and indirect exposure to Bitcoins and Bitcoin related markets.
If profitable opportunities arise, the Company will also invest in certain other commodity markets, including precious metals, oil and other forms of money (such as FX) as required to meet its investment goals whilst enhancing the Company’s ability to manage its liquidity requirementsIntro video if you have not seen it = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMN03xti4pkPartnersCarey Olsen as legal advisers led by James Mulholland - http://www.careyolsen.com/locations/jersey/Moore Management as fund administrator http://www.mooremanagement.com/Netagio and Elliptic as providers of custody services to strengthen and enhance our fund offering. https://secure.netagio.com/ Netagio. The first British Bitcoin, gold & sterling exchange. + https://www.elliptic.co/ Company formation and registration details https://www.jerseyfsc.org/registry/documentsearch/NameDetail.aspx?Id=297268
The fund will operate within the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998 as an Expert Fund.of which you can find a copy here = http://www.jerseyfsc.org/pdf/schedule_2_codes_for_certified_funds_august_2011.pdf
........Interestingly enough the company that I used to work for who are based in Jersey, who have since merged and then morphed and changed names several times.. was most likely involved in advising the government (and others) in writing the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998, and I also worked at the same company as one of the other members of the team at GABI ,one of the non exec directors, albeit I never met the guy from memory.... ..small world  Edit: actually the same company also advised quite a few other governments too over the years in various aspects of Taxation law and Financial and International Finance law/International law and the like, they get around, highly respected in their field and everything they touched was solid as a rock ....huh really small world... looking around I see 6 or 7 people from one company I worked for (Jersey/London based) are now working in and with Bitcoin related businesses, even one guy working for one of the GABI partners. |
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The classic posting style of JayJuanGee style of just DROPPING in the caps lock... BAM
Can I ask you something? I am and have been for quite some time, actually been dying to know where you come from ? where are you based and if you do not mind me asking what is your heritage? because I have been trying to figure it, and get an image of you in my mind , and I just cannot figure it... for example... I am born and raised in the UK , but my parents are Irish and Spanish and I am over somewhere around 40. I am now based in various places UK being one of them. Tell me to mind my own business of course.. but I am just CURIOUS. By the way, thanks for asking. I am NOT really sure how much I should say because of course this is an anonymous forum, and I strive to maintain some of that privacy/anonymity for myself... Sure there may be reasons and even circumstances in which maintaining a completely open profile would be tolerable, and there are several examples of members like that within the forum (even though it seems like the vast majority are anonymous). I will just describe a general background of my experiences in order to give you some ideas, and hopefully that will sufficiently respond to your curiosity. I grew up in the mid-western united states, and then went into the military after high school and was stationed in various parts of the USA and even stationed in Europe shortly (and traveled a little bit around europe). I am in my late 40s. I got out of the military and went to college on the west coast of usa and to grad school on the east coast. Between college and grad school, I taught English in Korea and I had learned Spanish while in college (and used Spanish somewhat in my work after college). After college I have worked in various kinds of professional positions mostly in the west coast usa, but some of my work had caused me to travel.. mostly in the USA. Ever since graduating from highschool, I have invested in various kinds of ways and engaged in various forms of business ventures. I have had some workaholic tendencies, but I have had various hobbies as well that helped to inform my activities and contribute to my understanding of social interactions and relationships. Probably, ever since I began attending college and thereafter, I have tended to write quite a lot. In the last year or so, I have been sort of attempting to transition into a state in which I will NOT have to work too much more or at least attempt to be more location independent in my working activities and to increase my travels.. though I continue to have ongoing business obligations that are tying me down somewhat more than I wished and making a complete location independent existence more difficult to transition into. I am considering various ways to potentially liquidate portions of my current business obligations or at least potentially to contract out additional portions of my current business obligations in order that my business obligations do NOT cause me to have to be as involved... to work less and to play more. There remains some uncertainties and ongoing fluctuation in my life regarding some of those transitions and the ongoing requirements that I am going to have in connection with my various business-related obligations. My involvement in BTC came about partly b/c I want to create greater diversification of my assets and my income - away from the dollar, and also to potentially be able to use BTC in my potential upcoming travels. cool thanks for taking the time to answer  |
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Why poll still asking if we'll see sub 500 next week, when we already ARE in the sub 500
fixed now don't be ..... sad |
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The classic posting style of JayJuanGee style of just DROPPING in the caps lock... BAM
Can I ask you something? I am and have been for quite some time, actually been dying to know where you come from ? where are you based and if you do not mind me asking what is your heritage? because I have been trying to figure it, and get an image of you in my mind , and I just cannot figure it... for example... I am born and raised in the UK , but my parents are Irish and Spanish and I am over somewhere around 40. I am now based in various places UK being one of them. Tell me to mind my own business of course.. but I am just CURIOUS. |
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GABI
thx, i was waiting for such a post all day. bitcoin rocks! no problemo amigo... and yes the Bitcoin world rocks... |
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Some infos I have gathered regarding: GABI (Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund) for anyone that may not have seen it. ANNOUNCEMENT FROM JERSEY GOVhttp://www.gov.je/News/2014/Pages/CryptoCurrency.aspx
= The Assistant Chief Minister with responsibility for financial services, Senator Philip Ozouf, has commented on the announcement by a Jersey-based investment management company that it has received approval to launch a Jersey-regulated Bitcoin investment fund. Senator Ozouf's statement Senator Ozouf said "This is believed to be the first regulated Bitcoin fund in operation and Jersey is pleased to be paving the way. Fintech, which broadly defines the emerging digital industry in finance, is a sector that I believe holds significant opportunities for Jersey. In April this year, when I presented the Government’s policy framework for the future of our financial services industry, I made it clear that innovation will be central to Jersey’s future prosperity. I also emphasised that Government will offer its full support for innovative measures undertaken by industry and the regulator. “I therefore welcome the decision of the Jersey Financial Services Commission to approve the launch of the Island’s first regulated Bitcoin fund. We are working closely with the Commission, industry and Digital Jersey to help develop the Island as a natural hub for fintech business. We are committed to maximising the benefits and opportunities of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in a well-regulated environment.” Cryptocurrency overview Cryptocurrencies are fundamentally a software code or chain of digital signatures that define units of value. No transfer of any physical money or digital file takes place at the point of transaction as with traditional core currency transactions. The most notable difference between crypto currencies and core currencies is that no group or individual may accelerate, stunt or in any other way significantly moderate (or abuse) the production of money. Most crypto currencies are designed to gradually introduce new units of currency, placing an ultimate cap on the total amount of currency that will ever be in circulation. This is done both to mimic the scarcity (and value) of precious metals and to avoid hyperinflation. One of the commonly known cryptocurrencies is ‘Bitcoin’. Bitcoins are created as a reward for payment processing work in which users offer their computing power to verify and record payments into the public ledger. Called mining, individuals or companies engage in this activity in exchange for transaction fees and newly created Bitcoins. Bitcoins are now actively obtained in exchange for core money, products, and services. The popularity of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has increased significantly as a tool of trade and more recently as an asset class for expert investors. Regulation Jersey has consistently taken a proactive approach in advancing the worldwide fight against money laundering and financing of terrorism. In the area of cryptocurrencies, this approach will not change. Jersey is committed to introducing an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime in this area. Given that the use of cryptocurrencies has evolved at such a rapid pace, and that the user and business acceptance is sharply growing, the Government and the Jersey Financial Services Commission are of the view that an in-depth analysis of the risks posed by crypto-currency needs to be carried out before an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime can be introduced. The analysis of the risks associated with crypto-currency is underway and it is anticipated that the Financial Crime Strategy Group, who make recommendations to the Government on financial crime matters, will be in a position to advise Ministers by the end of 2014. Tax implications Any business or individual receiving an income from any activity involving Bitcoin and other similar cryptocurrencies will need to consider the income tax and GST implications. In general terms, the Comptroller of Taxes has issued the following guidance the profits and losses of a business entering into transactions involving cryptocurrencies would be reflected in the accounts and would be taxable under normal Jersey income tax provisions relating to foreign exchange. with regard to GST, the value of the supply of goods or services on which GST is due will be the sterling value of the cryptocurrency at the point the transaction takes place. Local cryptocurrency use The use of cryptocurrencies locally is gathering momentum with a growing number of retailers currently accepting payment in Bitcoin. As such, Trading Standards have published new guidance for retailers accepting cryptocurrencies for consumer transactions. (Global Advisors Jersey Limited) Daniel Masters ( http://www.linkedin.com/pub/daniel-masters/8/939/197) Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager Director of Trading & Execution Daniel Masters started out in 1985 at Royal Dutch/Shell, where he was responsible for managing a portfolio of North Sea Crude. Moving to The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. in 1987, he pioneered the firm’s entrance into the electricity markets. He structured groundbreaking natural gas deals and was an original participant in the “Contract for Difference” (CFD) market for physical oil in Europe. J.P. Morgan hired him in 1993 to add trading expertise to its array of financial capabilities. Based on Danny’s success in establishing a proprietary trading program, Morgan promoted him to head its global energy trading business in 1997. Russell Newton( uk.linkedin.com/pub/rus-newton/0/419/371) Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager Director of Systematic Model Research & Development Russell Newton began his career as a crude oil trader for Royal Dutch/Shell in 1986. As head of Shell’s futures and forwards trading, he was one of the original developers of pricing models for the Brent CFD market. Rus also worked for The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. and Rhein Oel Limited before joining J.P. Morgan in 1993. At Morgan, he served as global commodities strategist, covering base and precious metals as well as energy. He developed a new derivative trade structures and new techniques for researching, analyzing and modeling markets. J Mognetti( uk.linkedin.com/in/jmmognetti) Mr Mognetti is a director and shareholder of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited. Mr. Mognetti is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Principal, an Associated Person , and a National Futures Association (NFA) associated member of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited and is also approved as a Key Person of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited by the Jersey Financial Services Commission (JFSC). Global Investment Bitcoin Investment Fund Ground Floor Liberation House Castle Street St Helier Jersey JE2 3AT http://www.globaladvisors.co.uk/The Company seeks to achieve capital appreciation through direct and indirect exposure to Bitcoins and Bitcoin related markets.
If profitable opportunities arise, the Company will also invest in certain other commodity markets, including precious metals, oil and other forms of money (such as FX) as required to meet its investment goals whilst enhancing the Company’s ability to manage its liquidity requirementsIntro video if you have not seen it = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMN03xti4pkPartnersCarey Olsen as legal advisers led by James Mulholland - http://www.careyolsen.com/locations/jersey/Moore Management as fund administrator http://www.mooremanagement.com/Netagio and Elliptic as providers of custody services to strengthen and enhance our fund offering. https://secure.netagio.com/ Netagio. The first British Bitcoin, gold & sterling exchange. + https://www.elliptic.co/ Company formation and registration details https://www.jerseyfsc.org/registry/documentsearch/NameDetail.aspx?Id=297268
The fund will operate within the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998 as an Expert Fund.of which you can find a copy here = http://www.jerseyfsc.org/pdf/schedule_2_codes_for_certified_funds_august_2011.pdf
........Interestingly enough the company that I used to work for who are based in Jersey, who have since merged and then morphed and changed names several times.. was most likely involved in advising the government (and others) in writing the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998, and I also worked at the same company as one of the other members of the team at GABI ,one of the non exec directors, albeit I never met the guy from memory.... ..small world Edit: actually the same company also advised quite a few other governments too over the years in various aspects of Taxation law and Financial and International Finance law/International law and the like, they get around, highly respected in their field and everything they touched was solid as a rock ....huh really small world... looking around I see 6 or 7 people from one company I worked for (Jersey/London based) are now working in and with Bitcoin related businesses, even one guy working for one of the GABI partners. |
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Let us take it for granted that there is a concerted manipulation effort to drive the price lower.
What knowledge do you draw from this fact? How does it help your trading?
If the manipulator is able to achieve his desires with a minimum of resources, and there is no opposition to him, be it from opposed manipulation or natural buying, then what does it tell you about the state of this market?
Same as it tells me about the gold/silver market, as they often get raided too... Tells me that there is something of interest to people with agendas... |
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What is occuring in the land of NXT?
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if people would really believe that gabi has an incredible impact the price would be much higher, or do you think they want to buy AFTER gabi puts in their 200mil?
There is much noise about GABI and little information. If GABI works like SMBIT, they will buy only if and when clients buy their shares. The 200 M$ is what they HOPE to get in 1 year. SMBIT (~107'000 BTC, ~50 M$) is not growing; I haven't seen any reason why GABI would be more attractive. It pains me to agree with El Stolfi, but, yeah. That's my understanding as well: they hope to rake in $200M and buy accordingly, not that they're sitting on that amount waiting to spend it from Sept. 1st. I agree , for sure, with the HOPE or AIM bit ... and they do state "up to 200mm" but I am pretty sure that Masters has feathered his arrows ; ) also the "in the first six months" + "to start off with" is important too.. I put more stock in Daniel Masters, than I do Jorge, not much.. but at least a little more.. sure one is talking his book, (and his past books are pretty impressive reads) but the other is totally blinkered at best, or totally not genuine at worst, though seems quite likeable.. which makes it worse. At least one of them married a total "£%!£%% |
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if people would really believe that gabi has an incredible impact the price would be much higher, or do you think they want to buy AFTER gabi puts in their 200mil?
There is much noise about GABI and little information. If GABI works like SMBIT, they will buy only if and when clients buy their shares. The 200 M$ is what they HOPE to get in 1 year. SMBIT (~107'000 BTC, ~50 M$) is not growing; I haven't seen any reason why GABI would be more attractive. 200 mm is what they are aiming for in first six months to start off with and they are just one player... nothing makes any difference to you Jorge.. even if BTC went to $100,000 tomorrow and become the defacto world currency you would still be trying to shit on it... so it is becoming less and less interesting to "talk" with you.. |
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One last design added to my store  All sales commission (a lousy 10%) goes towards replacing the coins stolen by Brewster et al. Bitcoin not to be associated with a murdering c*nt pleasethankyou. a symbol of liberation.. depending on perspective. I'm considering the perspective of all the innocent people he murdered. Not a liberating experience, I'm lead to believe. I hear you.. but then I feel the same way about Bill Clinton tbh. i cant remember of any clinton tshirts at festivals... also you may "feel" the same about bill clinton, but that doesnt lead to them being the same in a historic point of view. No you are right ... clinton has FAR more blood on his hands... take a look. |
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Which one of these belongs to Aminorex? |
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One last design added to my store All sales commission (a lousy 10%) goes towards replacing the coins stolen by Brewster et al. Bitcoin not to be associated with a murdering c*nt pleasethankyou. a symbol of liberation.. depending on perspective. I'm considering the perspective of all the innocent people he murdered. Not a liberating experience, I'm lead to believe. I hear you.. but then I feel the same way about Bill Clinton tbh. |
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weak hands being shaken, over and over again. this is nothing new and its just a lol when people panic sell. You guys realize GABI is starting to trade tomorrow right, as in 200 mill USD in attaining bitcoin.... (yes, it may come from large scale miners, but its still big news).
1st of September is just a rumour/ myth. Having spoken to them, I would be very, very surprised if we magically saw them buying lots of Bitcoin as of 9AM tomorrow morning. agreed... but they did say that they would start trading starting in sept... not expecting massive 200mm buying straight off on day 1 ... I do believe there is another player that has hinted they will start trading "around start of sept" too |
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weak hands being shaken, over and over again. this is nothing new and its just a lol when people panic sell. You guys realize GABI is starting to trade tomorrow right, as in 200 mill USD in attaining bitcoin.... (yes, it may come from large scale miners, but its still big news).
I hear Gabby is a hungry ho out on a massive bender |
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well i am out...good luck
t-la-wago |
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What is driving the market, right now. During the last downturn it was pretty clear that a mixture of fear and TA were spot on. However, TA doesn't seem to be so applicable outside of a rout. So, what the hell is really driving the price, here. Is there some bad news we don't know about because there seems to not only be good news coming out, but less than priced in good news.
What was "driving the market" between end of 2011 and end of 2012?  Mostly price stagnation, and when there's finally a decent rally (to $16), it gets dumped back to half of that. And keep in mind, at that point, the "ATH" was $32, by that time about 1.5 years in the past. Sorry, but "stagnation" sounds more like description, rather than explanation What was driving the stagnation? Would it be too tinfoil to suggest that it was coins, stolen from MtGox, sold gradually? Not sure I agree. I understand the desire to read the market in more fundamental ways, to understand "reasons" for price movements, but most of the time, that line of reasoning goes back to fundamentals and news - and that, in my experience and opinion, misses a big part of what actually drives the market more than half the time. Anyway, I'm sure there is a narrative for the stagnation period of 2012 that is slightly more explanatory. In essence: necessary consolidation after an extremely volatile period ($1 -> $32 -> $2), together with the fact that no "real world" events took place that were strong enough to overcome that market sentiment (like: Argentinians decide big time to use btc as an inflation hedge). As for a possible (partial) explanation of the current stagnation, see my point below... Plus, while I don't have the tools to test this hypothesis, I consider it completely possible that a price suppression regimen is in place, by large accumulating entities (i.e. buying off-exchange at roughly market price, selling a portion on-exchange to suppress market price, repeat). I know it's what I would do if I would plan to buy in to the tune of 100k coins now.
I suspect it can't be done for long. OTC market, just like exchange market, has its own depth chart, it's just invisible. Big OTC purchases would drive OTC price up. OTC market would run out of cheap coins. And miners would start arbitraging: Sell 100K coins off-exchange to suppressors for $550, bought them back from them on-exchange for 500$, rinse, repeat I don't claim I believe with certainty that this is going on, I am submitting that, if a large enough entity (or several) would plan to buy large amounts of coins, and have some patience, this would probably a scenario worth exploring. In terms of tax efficiency, waiting for the ETF would probably be the better choice, but in terms of price control, the method I described would in principle beat a fund that is, ultimately, positive feedback linked to the markets. I disagree that miners would prevent this taking place. No disrespect to miners, they're the backbone of the network, but amateur miners seem to be not necessarily the most economically rational actors. Go look around in this forum how often the fall for the fallacy: 'It's sunk cost anyway, I'll let my outdated miners run as long as they produce coins', and how often more economically minded users need to tell them that the actual calculation needs to be based on total cost of future production of coins (mainly: energy costs) vs. number of coins bought at market for the same costs. Larger mining operations are undoubtedly much more economically savvy, but I've argued over and over again that I believe that, with the increasing "professionalization" of Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining, short-term profit opportunity will probably outclass long-term speculative investment. In other words: large miners sell more than they hold, especially considering that we are currently nowhere near a new uncontested bull market (which means the ratio of sold vs. held coins can change if the market sentiment changes, and miners might hold more than they sell if they feel it's a sure thing price will go up.) Finally, we have plenty of evidence that public market price as determined by on exchange trading is a major reference point for off exchange transactions (just one example: the SR coin auction, where every party that spoke on it refered to "the market price" as if it were the obvious metric). Binding a large mining operation to you in a mid to long-term contract, maybe even offering a premium (although, from hearsay, I've only heard of large holders being made sub market offers, off exchange), then using some fraction of the coins to strategically depress price, would seem like a very good strategy to me, and relatively risk free: if it works, market price stays low, and accumulation proceeds at a low cost. If it fails, and price refuses to be depressed, the account value of coins gained so far appreciates, which is a sweet little consolation price. Arbitrage by miners could throw a spanner in the works of this mechanism, but profits would be comparably marginal: the goal of the accumulator is not to destroy the on-exchange price, just to keep a lid on it. For the arbitreur miner, the reward is small (sold his coins at market price, is able to buy them back slightly below perhaps), and more importantly: for the large operations, the initial problem would re-appear - what to do with a large amount of coins, when you in reality prefer to hold USD (by my assumption that professional mining operations are short-term opportunistic, and not long-term married to Bitcoin success). It's a tragedy of the commons style scenario: presumably, miners would be better off selling directly on the exchanges, since the higher volume generated there would ultimately drive up price, but individually, they fear the risk of lower profits because of increased selling pressure on exchange, so they seek arrangements off exchange. I'll say it one more time: The above is (motivated, I think) speculation. I make no claim this is necessarily happening. I only point out that I believe it is a possible, maybe even probable, mechanism taking place, accounting - at least partially - for the current stagnation period. Interesting |
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this Video teach us a simple yet important thing: First Follower: Leadership Lessons from Dancing GuyClick the image to watch the video in Bitcoin's case, Hal finney was that brave first followerHilarious... you have no idea how many times I have been the first crazy shirtless guy at a party... the lone nut... ha ha .. nothing to do with being a leader... but when I was younger ......the music really used to grab me.... ah man.. those were the days... good vid |
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