I interpret that as it's going to edge between 122-123 by the end of the day, with little resistance to a full rebound to 128-130 as cash starts flowing in towards the end of the week!
Those big sellers haven't bought back in yet. I wonder if they've not finished selling, and they're waiting for your prediction to come true before mega-dumping again, or that they have finished selling and they're anticipating some further downtrend before buying back in again. Or, they're really cashing out, and there are more like them to follow for similar reasons (fincen vs illegitimate business etc). Either way, I'd expect us to be testing 115 again within a week or two. This. The test of $115 will happen muuuuuuuch earlier than "within a week or two". Fasten your seatbelts, gentlemen. The post-crash upwards trend was officially broken yesterday. I hope that's a coincidence that it just started dropping right after your post! I have to say that just before posting I sold 20% of my BTC holdings at $119ish. Not because I'm willing to "catch the bottom", I immediately ordered a fiat withdrawal for those funds, it's because I'm willing to invest in ASICs and I'm going to pay with fiat to get a little "buyer protection", and I'm pretty sure the price will go down during this week. Edit: obviously it's a decision that I made this very morning, if I had decided to invest fiat in ASICs earlier I would have sold at $133ish last week, but that's life. Nice, but if you believe what you're preaching, why not sell more? Because I only trade with play money, or with fresh fiat looking for the best entry point. So, I'm more an "investor" than a "trader". Plus, I tried to trade with some "real" money during the crash to $79, and I sold at the very bottom. I had to buy back losing aprox. 15 BTC in the process. I promised to myself that I wasn't going to speculate with my dear coins, it hurts too much when you lose some of them in the way. Anyhow, I'm sending another 15% to the exchange right now, that's the maximum amount I will liquidate - not to speculate, but because I'm buying ASIC gear with that money. |
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I interpret that as it's going to edge between 122-123 by the end of the day, with little resistance to a full rebound to 128-130 as cash starts flowing in towards the end of the week!
Those big sellers haven't bought back in yet. I wonder if they've not finished selling, and they're waiting for your prediction to come true before mega-dumping again, or that they have finished selling and they're anticipating some further downtrend before buying back in again. Or, they're really cashing out, and there are more like them to follow for similar reasons (fincen vs illegitimate business etc). Either way, I'd expect us to be testing 115 again within a week or two. Expect a test of 100 rather. This. The test of $115 will happen muuuuuuuch earlier than "within a week or two". Fasten your seatbelts, gentlemen. The post-crash upwards trend was officially broken yesterday. I hope that's a coincidence that it just started dropping right after your post! I have to say that just before posting I sold 20% of my BTC holdings at $119ish. Not because I'm willing to "catch the bottom", I immediately ordered a fiat withdrawal for those funds, it's because I'm willing to invest in ASICs and I'm going to pay with fiat to get a little "buyer protection", and I'm pretty sure the price will go down during this week. Edit: obviously it's a decision that I made this very morning, if I had decided to invest fiat in ASICs earlier I would have sold at $133ish last week, but that's life. |
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Eso no es del todo cierto... si es verdad que podrías acabar pagando muchas comisiones, pero no tanto como para que se coman todo el dinero ganado. Pero si que es cierto que los faucets deberían hacer lo que comento en otros hilos, juntar las transacciones de muchos días y compactarlas. Beneficia a todos, al que envía, al que recibe y al resto de la gente. Bueno, se han dado casos extremos de transacciones que no se confirmaban jamás porque el usuario tenía tantísimo polvo que el coste a la hora de retransmitir la transacción era mayor que el valor que quería transferir. Es un caso muy extremo, pero es posible. Te equivocas en un detalle: la comisión de 0,0005BTC se paga por cada Kb que ocupa la transacción. Además, si el precio del BTC sube, el coste de la comisión podría bajar en el futuro. Tienes razón en ambas cosa. Cuando dije que la comisión depende del número de "elementos" que tenga la transacción quería darle a bitbar un ejemplo gráfico, para que entendiera de forma intuitiva que cuantos más inputs/outputs tiene una transacción, más espacio en kb ocupará en la cadena de bloques, y por lo tanto más tendrá que pagar para retransmitir esa transacción. Ahora no lo encuentro, per hace unos meses hubo un usuario a los que se le quedaron en el limbo unos cuantos BTC (algo así como 15 BTC) porque llevaba años usando el mismo wallet para jugar a Satoshidice compulsivamente y visitando muchísimas veces al día faucets de todo tipo, por lo que llegó un momento en el que su cliente "loqueó" y se encontró con un bug bastante raro de reproducir, todo ello por la cantidad salvaje de "polvo" que había acumulado. Para solucionarlo, le tuvieron que enseñar cómo crear una transacción "raw" de forma manual, y aún así le costó mucho recuperar el control de esos BTC (de hecho no se si lo consiguió, pero estuvieron ayudándole varios usuarios experimentados que jamás se habían encontrado un problema semejante). |
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I interpret that as it's going to edge between 122-123 by the end of the day, with little resistance to a full rebound to 128-130 as cash starts flowing in towards the end of the week!
Those big sellers haven't bought back in yet. I wonder if they've not finished selling, and they're waiting for your prediction to come true before mega-dumping again, or that they have finished selling and they're anticipating some further downtrend before buying back in again. Or, they're really cashing out, and there are more like them to follow for similar reasons (fincen vs illegitimate business etc). Either way, I'd expect us to be testing 115 again within a week or two. Expect a test of 100 rather. This. The test of $115 will happen muuuuuuuch earlier than "within a week or two". Fasten your seatbelts, gentlemen. The post-crash upwards trend was officially broken yesterday. |
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 Perhaps, 2 more weeks™. A newsletter would be great. This guy is so drunk now that he is about do die:  |
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As I told you earlier: it may reach 230BTC, or it may not. In my opinion it will probably b/e if it's delivered today, but the profit after b/e will be very low compared to the high investment. Personally, it's a risk I wouldn't take.
Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all.
OK, sorry if my reaction to your posts comes across as too emotional, but I really DO think that at 230 BTC it's a bargain. We can debate the exact amount of expected mining revenue but in the end no one knows, all hashrate projections are entirely speculative. But you seem to totally miss my argument: in ADDITION to expected mining revenue, this Avalon will still have a resale value a few months down the road. Why should not it? FPGA miners still sell at essentially the same price now as they did 9 months ago, even though they are barely competitive. Why do you think an Avalon will be worthless in a few months? And if you take a resale value into account, I do not see how you can say in all honesty that it will not have a positive ROI at this price, regardless of any speculative difficulty estimates. Well, I don't think that ASICs will have the same resale value of FPGA's, as the latter can be used for other purposes, while bitcoin ASICs not. Anyhow, please accept my excuses for hijacking both your auction post and this one. I think it's perfectly legit to try to get the maximum price the market is willing to pay for anything you or another member is willing to sell. It's just that I've been a noob too, I know that there are many variables to take into account when doing this kind of investment, and when I see old-timers making ambiguos claims about ROI or difficulty projections I feel bad for the noob that may feel the urge to "hop on the train", blinded by greed, because I realize that many of those noobs do not really understand the huge spike in difficulty we are going to face in the following months... Jeez, most of them do not even understand what the "yearly profitability decline" at bitcoinx.com/profit means, so they just leave the "0.61" value it comes there by default, which will for sure take them to believe they will have much greater returns that they will actually have. |
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What I really want to know is this: if this machine can generate so much revenue, why would its owner want to sell it for even as much as 230 BTC?
You are right, 230BTC does not even look very appealing to me given the revenue potential of the unit. In fact, I hoped that the bids will run much higher because of this potential and the simple fact that this is the ONLY offer on the market right now allowing you to start mining with 71,000 MH/s ASIC hashing power right away. Seems like I was wrong, people either do not understand the real revenue potential of the unit or are not able to do the cost/benefit analysis properly. So, maybe I just wind down this auction and keep mining with the unit. I will keep track of its REAL performance, and once it hits 230 BTC, I'll let Rampion & co know how wrong they are with their FUD. As I told you earlier: it may reach 230BTC, or it may not. In my opinion it will probably b/e if it's delivered today, but the profit after b/e will be very low compared to the high investment. Personally, it's a risk I wouldn't take. Don't need to get mad, Arvicco: You said publicly that your Avalon was a bargain, I'm discussing publicly with you why I don't think it's a bargain at all. |
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1,000,000,000 difficulty for June 2014 sounds extremely high, but it's not out of the question, just look here:
Sure, just punch in any arbitrary assumption of your choosing, and you can arrive at any answer that fits your argument. Garbage in, garbage out. Using the SAME profitability calculator ( http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/), just not messing with the assumptions, I calculated the following:  Garbage in, garbage out? Ok, let's see where the garbage is: - First, you keep the 71GH/s as hashrate, as it was possible to achieve 100% uptime
- Secondly, you keep the 0.15usd/kwh - ok, maybe your buyer is from the USA and can enjoy that price
- And thirdly, AND MOST IMPORTANT: you have the default 0.61 profitability decline on the calculator, which either means that a) you don't know what that variable means or b) you want some ignorant noob to be blinded by greed. The 0.61 yearly profitability decline, that's the garbage in you are talking about. A yearly profitability decline of 0.61 means that in twelve months, difficulty will only grow by x1.64. Are you really saying that you believe than in June 2014 the difficulty will only be 19 million?
OK, willing to accept an escrowed bet? I give you 3:1 odds on your favor, and I bet that difficulty in June 2014 will be at least double than 19million. But I know you will not accept, because you know very well that a x1,64 increase (or x2,32 as I propose in my bet) in difficulty in the next 12 months its just impossible. |
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Gracias Rampian,
entiendo lo de las transacciones de cantidades tan pequeñas, no se me había ocurrido que al final te puede salir más caro el collar que el perro, pero se podrá ir acumulando en las webs y con el tiempo hacer un envio a la wallet más grande, no?
Saludos
natxo
No es cuestión de tamaño del wallet, sino la cantidad de "inputs" y "outputs" tiene una determinada transacción. Cuando recibes 10.000 veces 0,0001BTC, esa cantidad no se "fusiona" en 1BTC... A la hora de gastarte ese saldo, el cliente recoge todos los 0,0001 y los combina en una solo transacción que tiene que retransmitir y por la que tiene que pagar una comisión, que depende de la cantidad de elementos que componen esa transacción. Se podría dar un caso extremo en el que podrías llegar a pagar una comisión de 5BTC (10.000 x 0,0005BTC) para gastarte tu 1BTC. Más info: http://bitcoinfees.com/OK, no sabía que funcionaba de esa forma Entonces no interesa para nada este tema de los micropagos por visitar estas webs? Pensaba que tú ibas visitando la web y que cuando tuvieras una cantidad importante la volcabas a tu wallet, y por la cantidad que enviabas pagabas una comisión. Lo que no entiendo muy bien es lo que dices del caso extremo, si siempre es así no es rentable, o me he perdido? Disculpa Rampion, pero estoy bastante pez en el munod Bitcoin todavía...  Muchas gracias por tu tiempo y la divulgación de tus conocimientos Natxo Mientras la transacción que te envíen a tu wallet sea superior a 0,00005430 BTC (5430 "satoshis") no deberías tener problemas |
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I think you know that probably your Avalon won't mine 230BTC in its remaining life-span, and that's why you are good to sell it at that price.
Actually, I'm quite confident that Avalon will mine much more than 230btc in the next months, and it's resale value won't be 0 after that either. Just do your math, it's quite simple really. In order for it to mine LESS than 230btc, the difficulty needs to rise more than 3.1% PER DAY for the next 40 WEEKS, increasing about 150 times from current level by September. Increasing the total network hashpower 150 TIMES in just 4 monts?! Sorry, but I just don't see this as even remotely realistic scenario. In any scenario where the difficulty raises less than 3.1% per day every day month after month, gives you mining profit. Plus, why do you assume that resale value of Avalon will be 0 after that? GPUS and FPGAs miners still sell quite well even though they are barely competitive, why would Avalon be suddenly worthless in 4 months?! Your math is wrong. For it to be unprofitable the difficulty has to gradually go x90 in the next 12 months. Here:  1,000,000,000 difficulty for June 2014 sounds extremely high, but it's not out of the question, just look here:  And consider that in the calculations above, apart from the increase in difficulty, all the other variables are in their "best case scenario" for you: - 71GH/s, and we all know that 100% uptime is impossible - 0,15usd/kwh, which is an electricity rate impossible to get in many countries 230BTC for 71GH/s delivered today may get a ROI, or may not. But I can tell you definitely that it is not a bargain as you suggest. |
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Gracias Rampian,
entiendo lo de las transacciones de cantidades tan pequeñas, no se me había ocurrido que al final te puede salir más caro el collar que el perro, pero se podrá ir acumulando en las webs y con el tiempo hacer un envio a la wallet más grande, no?
Saludos
natxo
No es cuestión de tamaño del wallet, sino la cantidad de "inputs" y "outputs" tiene una determinada transacción. Cuando recibes 10.000 veces 0,0001BTC, esa cantidad no se "fusiona" en 1BTC... A la hora de gastarte ese saldo, el cliente recoge todos los 0,0001 y los combina en una solo transacción que tiene que retransmitir y por la que tiene que pagar una comisión, que depende de la cantidad de elementos que componen esa transacción. Se podría dar un caso extremo en el que podrías llegar a pagar una comisión de 5BTC (10.000 x 0,0005BTC) para gastarte tu 1BTC. Más info: http://bitcoinfees.com/ |
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Hmm, I have to install the ripple client? I only find source code on their website...  I don't use bitstamp no, at least not yet  No, there's no Ripple client yet AFAIK, you can do it through their web. |
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Speaking of the devil: my XRPs' BTC value has appreciated more than 20% in last two days.
Don't shoot me...
EDIT: before you call me names, I hold both BTC and XRP. And I ain't selling any.
At 6000 XRP per BTC, that would make the Ripple market cap 16.66 million BTC or ~2 billion USD. Surely not a bubble. Wait, what? 6000 XRP per BTC, and I got 20k for free, that means they're worth 3.3 BTC now or about 400 bucks? LOL... where's the best place to sell em? Inside Ripple, they have their own exchange built-in. Just be sure you get BTC/Bitstamp, and not BTC/Tradefortress |
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Wow. Less than $14m on Goxs order book.
And on Bitstamp, just a little over $900k.
When fiat goes away....
....cheaper coins ahead.
There will be nice buying opportunities. Wow. Less than 113k bitcoins on Goxs order book. When coins go away... ....more expensive coins ahead. There will be nice selling opportunities. Never forget to look at the other side of the coin.  That's wishful thinking. As I told you on May, 31st, when BTC was traded at $128/$130: All the indicators are screaming "down" ATM.
Now even more so, as $125 fell with no resistance whatsoever. There's no buying pressure. New investors are vary aware of the fact that we may very well be in the middle of post-bubble burst correction, and there is no hurry to buy. At all. |
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Goomboo is correct. Kinda..
Yeah, kinda. While an immediate sell on crossover would have protected you from a 7% drop, it would have cost you a fortune in fees and slippage in the last few days:  I do appreciate the knowledge Goomboo is transmitting, but I think this is not a good example. Also, the EMAs did not recross. The price could go back up before the next crossing. Are you using hourly candles in that chart? |
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Wow. Less than $14m on Goxs order book.
And on Bitstamp, just a little over $900k.
When fiat goes away....
....cheaper coins ahead.
There will be nice buying opportunities.
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To big a gamble to stake way over $12k on. Good luck though, I admire your balls, and I thought I was risky putting $900 into 3 x BFL 5 g/h miners (15G/H) to arrive this side of Xmas.
I've calculated I will make back the BTC spent on this outlay within the next 120 days, even accounting for difficulty increases (And to be clear, am reinvesting previously mined BTC accrued over the last couple years) Am OK with that. I've tried to run the numbers but the very best case scenario I've calculated for your setup is break even in aprox. 200 days, and that with a ridiculously optimistic 0.5 yearly profitability decline (which means that in the next 12 months difficulty would only double, and we know that won't happen). Could you share your numbers, Xian? I'm very curious about them. |
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Speaking of the devil: my XRPs' BTC value has appreciated more than 20% in last two days.
Don't shoot me...
EDIT: before you call me names, I hold both BTC and XRP. And I ain't selling any.
At 6000 XRP per BTC, that would make the Ripple market cap 16.66 million BTC or ~2 billion USD. Surely not a bubble. Crazy shit indeed. And look at the volume: is nothing. You buy/sell XRPs for a mere 50BTC value and you move the price by 30% LOL |
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