That's not a source that says Bitcointalk is the biggest influence there is on Bitcoin.
Well you can still look at the correlation of bitcoin price and new forum users, i have thread about that: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1249771.0No I don't admit bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, it isn't. What a ridiculous argument, trying to put words in my mouth. I said that getting a marketing team to promote a cryptocurrency not your personal investment would make it look like a scam (ponzi scheme, pyramid scheme, etc). It's very easy to make an uneducated person think Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, even though it isn't. And I don't think we need a PR scheme for simply promoting it like the people who use Bitcoin already do.
Ok sorry I didnt mean to put words in your mouth, but your argument surely sounded like how I described it. However there are some inconsistencies here look: If Joe promotes Bitcoin to Bill, in whatever fashion. Then you got +1 member if Bill joins. So that is 1->1 promotion. If you scale it to 100->100, 100 random people promote it to 100 other random people, you got the same. Now if you have 1 marketing team promoting it to 1,000,000 people, how is that not the same as the 1-1 promotion, it's just only scaled to a higher level. So you accept that 1->1 ,you accept 100->100, but you don't accept 1->1,000,000 , therefore your logic is inconsistent. |
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Get Ron Paul or Rand Paul to start talking more about it in the media. Lots of people listen to Ron Paul's views of the economy. He would be a valued celeb to advocate it...
I`m not sure if the audience is correct .Many libertarians are silver and gold bugs, they rarely care about bitcoin and they stand strongly by their precious metals. I was thinking more about popstars or celebrities that are "trendy", and can have a massive impact on younger people. Bitcoin needs to be advertised as something easy to use and trendy, otherwise people won't like it. Now this might make bitcoin look less important, so we need to find a balance there, but I just believe this is a good way to start. Now you might disagree and its ok. |
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Gambling firms do a lot of things to try and remove the player edge, be it as simple as table limits/max bets or cross selling you more profitable games all the way up to refusing any further business for consistent winners. So while mathematically I think you are correct, in reality it can be very difficult to be in the long tail of profitable winners due to random chance.
Half true. The casinos usually put those measures in place to protect the house profit, but they can still win eachother's money. Like in a roulette for example you have maximum bet size so that a guy with 1 billion dollar cannot martingale itself to infinity and bankrupt the casino. However if he bets flat, he can still win the other people's money. |
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He keeps trolling my thread, and insulting me without any sense or reason. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=196289Insult #1 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12953024#msg12953024Insult #2 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12953070#msg12953070Insult #3 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12953113#msg12953113Insult #4 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12953139#msg12953139Insult #5 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12953182#msg12953182Insult #6 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12958075#msg12958075Insult #7 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1171565.msg12969253#msg12969253and many more since... He is also a big racist and anti-semite:Are you a fat fucking jew?
Spondoolies is owned by BTCS who is very soon by their own admission going to be bankrupt. The debtors of BTCS own Spondoolies assests - not that dude Guy. This is ALL BAD for the jews. I'd say Spondoolies is finished. What a fuck up.
New York jews have long believed they have the right to be in complete control of everyone's money. Jews love control of money. So, just don't deal with those New Yorkers who love regulating other people's financial activity.
I actually lucked out - got a bunch of S3s just for the fun of it - and I am totally shocked how good they are. Rock solid. Just running, running, running. Making BTC. I can't believe it. I thought that was just more Chinese shit. Not true. I got fucked by BFL (American), I got fucked by KnC (Sweden), and I got fucked by Spondoolies (Jews). But I didn't get fucked by the Chinese. What I got from the Chinese is pure, solid, rocking hash power for a very cheap price.
I guess the pendulum swings. Who'd have predicted fucked up shitty engineering from Americans, Swedish and Jews, with kick ass reliable engineering from the Chinese? Not me. The world turns.
Is it necessary for one to rotate his schtick yearly? I was unaware of this.
Besides, I don't know what is so shocking about Ploshay being a jew. I wasn't shocked when I found out. Jews love being in control of money. What about this shocks you?
He's Chinese. Maybe not as bad as a pedophile, but nevertheless pretty bad.
Look, I am no advocate for the wierdos, but the way I see is we've got a chink, a goxer, a money launderer, and a pedophile. At least we don't have a jew.
As for racism - all you stupid jackoffs who think you are not racist are just fucking dumb. All humans are racist. Jews are the most racist of them all - way to go Stirling! Blacks are racist too. It is human nature. You don't like humans? Don't complain to me - take it up with your maker.
Jesus! I hope you are not a fat jew - you'll probably come and steal my shit. (joking!)
Finally - an intelligent jew who understands. Oh wait, is it also racist to call SirWilliam intelligent? Jews also have that stereotype.
Holy shit what a bunch of hog-wash.
Archived his anti-semitic comments in case he removes his post later: https://archive.is/qZhxUhttps://archive.is/AGzYBhttps://archive.is/03Qkihttps://archive.is/FiqTmhttps://archive.is/4C2emhttps://archive.is/rSjxYhttps://archive.is/SfzTFhttps://archive.is/wuasJ |
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Updated post #1, I try to explain it better because people dont understand what a probabiltiy distibution is: This is not necessarly accurate representation, but it's an illustration how a negative expectancy game's probability distribution looks like. Gamblers winning is a tail event with low probability, nontheless it's mathematically possible to happen: You just need to calculate that area and you got the probability of your scenario set to happen:  You can calculate that area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-test |
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What is the probability of the event "1 out of infinite" happening ?Let's prove this by using some basic probability formulas
It is not 1 event, it is infinite events. You can variate my example in post #1 infinite times. But i`m sure it can be quantified if you calculate the tail probability of it. Gambling distribution is gaussian, so you just need to measure the probability of a tail event happening and you got it. But again there are infinite variations of that scenario and each one is ranked on different probability levels. So you need to calculate that area actually. So I would illustrate it like this:  The orange area is my example, it's a tail event, and there are infinite variations of it, in that space. However nontheless it's a measurable subset of the probability function that can be calculated if you have spare time. |
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You also need to factor in the type of game being played. So for example Poker and Sports betting are the gambling games with the best chance of being profitable in the long run, with casino games having the lowest chance of long run profitability.
But it still requires you playing perfectly (poker) or taking advantage of mis-pricing (sports betting).
All games could be profitable, even if you have a house edge of 99%. It is only a matter of right probability distribution. Please read up on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution |
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All those figures are based on assumptions and doesn't have to be possibly true.In mathematically terms your assumption is not a corollary but a theorem.I agree that is proved with various predictions but those situations won't actually happen in real life.
It is based on mathematical facts. How likely it is? I dont know, but it can be calculated if you have spare time for it. However it is possible. Moreover, my example was only 1 out of infinite variations how that scenario could play out. Given how random walks work, eventually all paths will be crossed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk |
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Your review may be true that there is also, all that could happen if our luck is very strong and a lot of funds. Most players lose large funding shortfall if according to my experience playing gambling.  Yes a larger fund may increase your chance of survival but it also increases the risk, as you can lose it too. But it all depends on luck, you can win the jackpot on your firs bet: a lottery ticket of 5€ can bring you 500,000,000€. So its not always the case of large funds needed. |
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You have no source for this.
Really then what about the last hacks and DDOS-es of the forum. The price went down immediately after. And then what? We "market" Bitcoin and make it look like a Ponzi scheme? Do you know how dodgy it will look if suddenly this PR team starts pumping Bitcoin out of nowhere?
So you basically admit that advertising is useless and it has never helped anything? Do you really think that a competent marketing team cannot promote bitcoin it a normal way? Whats with all these ponzi scheme arguments. You youself degrade bitcoin by this, because you also admit that bitcoin is a ponzi scheme by saying this. We market bitcoin as a new form of currency, and tell the truth only. There is nothing shady in telling the truth. It doesnt have to be misleading in any way. These are not the best tools. That's like saying if you have a problem with Judaism you should kill the entire race because it's the best option aaaaaaaand just like that you're Hitler. Granted, it's an extreme example, but your point is kind of silly.
Thats a very fucked up response,I wont even respond to this. |
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I assure you that Bitcointalk is not all there is to the Bitcoin community, although it is a large part of it. I see plenty of people pop up on chatboxes on Bitcoin-related websites who have never even heard of Bitcointalk who have found the site through other sources. There are plenty of other forums as well. We don't particularly need to start trying to hire a PR team, Bitcoin becomes more and more legitimate each day on its own.
Ok but BCT is currently the biggest influence there is, this might change in the future if other forums take over, but currently this is the stance. Again you dont understand my words, I dont say that marketing is crucial, I`m only saying that it can accelerate bitcoin's growth, so why not use it? Do you prefer using campfire or oven? Washing board or washing machine? Leafs or toilet paper? Why not use the best tools available to help bitcoin? Why waste time and energy? |
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it's impossible , when we talk about long term we aren't talking about one year where are talking about mathematical concepts
the house will keep making money and the players at the end will run out of funds , it's impossible to beat -EV games unless there is a +EV bounty or Jackpot
even Einstein said about roulette that No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking
Yes we are talking about 5-10 years because nobody gambles infinitely many times. It is possible to beat negative expectancy if you have a favorable probability distribution. If you bet on Red chip in roulette and the distribution is this: R , R , R ,B , R , R , R , R , R , R , R , R , R , R , R , R ,B ... You just ended up a net winner. |
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 In all fairness, anything more than that is a joke. If you just want Bitcoin to become mainstream and then lose the ideals behind it, then go ahead. But who is going to pay for it? Again, it'd be something like the Bitcoin Foundation, and a lot of people in the Bitcoin community do not agree with them. Hahaha that picture is not exactly the best marketing material  Well look my opinion is that bitcoin has to have some sort of organization, not necessarly a leadership as I see many people dont like that, but some basic organization. For example like this forum. Without this forum there would be hardly any use to bitcoin. So the scenario of headless chicken running around and screaming bitcoin to the world is not the best promotion either. So I think a PR team therefor is highly recommended. |
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I'm sorry, I find the point that you've added here quite ludicrous. Bitcoin is simply a decentralized currency, there shouldn't be a PR team trying to pump it. I think organisations like the Bitcoin Foundation are grossly out of their depth, indeed, they've screwed us over quite a lot like I said earlier in the thread mentioning how a board member stated they were at one point "essentially bankrupt" due to frivolous spending. The point of Bitcoin is not to hire a damn PR team. If Bitcoin becomes truly successful then we have succeeded, we do not need a PR team so we can get Bitcoin "mainstream" to increase the price for all these greedy speculators.
It can become succesful without it too, I`m not saying that these are critical requirements. However why not speedup the process? Why wait 30 years to become mainstream when we can do it in 5 years? We know that advertising and marketing works, why not use this tool to speedup bitcoin's progress? |
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This is a response to the threads:Topic: Everyone looses in the long run https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1199744.0Topic: Can gambling be profitable in long term ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1186546.0
Yes gambling can be profitable in the long run. It is a mathematical possibility. I`m not a gambling shill, but i`m very frustrated when people put out misleading information. The truth is important. So here are a few outcomes:1. Gambling can be profitable in the long term for the gambler 2. Gambling cannot be profitable in the long term for the gambler 3. Gambling can be profitable in the long term for the house 4. The house can go bankrupt All of these 4 scenarios could happen,under different circumstances. They are not impossible. It all depends on luck. Take the following scenario for long term profitability for the gambler:1000 gamblers gamble 100$ every day on slotmachine. The house edge is 1%. The total money wagered is 100,000$ every day. The house makes on average: 1000$/day So the rest of the 99,000$ is changing hands between gamblers. So the following scenario could happen: 400 gamblers win consistently for 1 year for example, and 600 gamblers lose consistently for 1 year. Now the 400 gamblers wager 40,000$ and the 600 gamblers wager 60,000$. The total profit of the 400 gamblers thus is 59,000$ since 1000$ goes to the house. Thus divide that by 400, each gambler wagers 100$, and wins 147.5$ every single day for 1 year. Or it could be that 200 of that 400 wins only 73.5$/day consistently, and the other 200 wins 295$ /day consistently. Or many other, infinitely many other variations of this scenario.
Look it's all possible, only luck will tell, so don't tell me that winning consistently on the long term is impossible. In infinity all gamblers would lose, and only the house would win (if it doesnt get wiped out by some big jackpots in a row), no doubt about that, but how much does the average gambler play 5-10 years? In that time range this scenario that I described is totally possible. In the example above, your probability of winning long term is: (40% * the probability of the probability distribution happening that is required to have the 1 year consistency).
This is not necessarly accurate representation, but it's an illustration how a negative expectancy game's probability distribution looks like. Gamblers winning is a tail event with low probability, nontheless it's mathematically possible to happen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution#Continuous_probability_distributionhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distributionYou just need to calculate that area and you got the probability of your scenario set to happen: You can calculate that area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-test
Now this doesn't mean that you, the gambler will win, you can end up in the 600 gambler group and always lose. However if you luck is good, then you can win consistently. Basically it all comes down to luck, lucky is the only variable that determines weather you are a loser or a winner, nothing else matters really, only luck.Luck is the only thing that matters in gambling
So I wish you all good luck gamblers!
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Everyone looses in the long run
Let's be honest.
False, there is a probability that you can end up profitable in the long run. There are 2 ways to make a profit from gambling : Bet a few times and win big, or Bet many times and win small and consistent. Both scenarios are possible, although the probability is not high, however it is possible. Ex: 1000 gamblers play slots for 100$ /day each. 600 of them might lose 100$ every day. The house wins from 100 players 10,000$/day, and the rest of the 400 gamblers win the money of the 500 losers (as 100 goes to the house). So the probability is about 40% that you end up winner in the long run in this scenario. This scenario is totally possible. |
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Part of my point is more or less exactly the opposite of what you are asserting to be possible. You are asserting that a bunch of us could affect the direction of the bitcoin price if we could get on the same page and push in the same direction at the same time.
I do not disagree with that assertion as a possibility, but your assertion really seems to be out there in LA LA land.
I maintain my assertion that you cannot really get a bunch of forum members to agree, even if it were in their own best interest to agree - it's a kind of prisoners dilemma, because every person would continue to act as an individual in his/her own best interest and to tend to deviate from the direction of the others in order to attempt to get an advantage, which in the end would cause the whole proposed coordinated effort to fail.
Don't believe me, do you own reasearch, and you will find interesting things, just like he responded:
This is the signle biggest forum for bitcoin.
Every post, thread, article is influencing the price of bitcoin, that originate from this forum.
I`d guess about 0.8 correlation between bitcointalk activity and bitcoin price.
So if the majority of guys agree from here, it will go there probably.
There is correlation between bitcointalk activity and bitcoin price. The former is affected by the latter. When there is Price rise, there more activity here. When the price is low, people are quite here. After all we are the bitcoin community, of course we influence price. Whatever things go in this forum does affect the bitcoin price. |
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Its probably the lack of security and the narrow selection of where you can use it.
It will probably expand, but after some time
Lack of security? Bitcoin is perfectly secure, more secure than bank accounts. Of course if the user is newbie and he himself cant keep his PC secure, thats another problem, but that's not bitcoin's fault. Just like if you fall down the stairs, it's not the stairs fault. |
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Austria didn't plan a world war. There were many wars in the region for several years before ww1. The year before, 2 years before, etc. And it was like that in many other places in europe too. But no one predicted that last war would affect so many countries. Not sure about hitler planning a world war either. But don't know about that for sure.
Yes Austria always wanted to conquer Serbia back then so war was most likely inevitable, it was a royal dispute that went back decades between different royal houses. What they didnt calculate that was the other superowers would join, because they wanted a piece of something too. They just needed a trigger, because they already wanted war. In ww2 hitler wanted to expand germany and its influences from the start, and you can hardly do that without war. It's not like you ask the soviets nicely and they will give you land.
Don't believe this is true. England was always dependent on its colonies for example. Maybe one of the main reasons for germany to expanded to the east was to get farmland. To be self sufficient without depending on trade or colonies. Japan did the same thing for farmland and other resources. Countries are more interdependent today but they weren't self sufficient then.
Yea but put things in perspective what did they import from colonies: Exotic tree, minerals, exotic fruits and vegetables, silk, and other luxury items. Yes they were precious but they are not critical to their economy. But now if you cutoff the coal or oil imports literally all countries are fucked because their entire economy collapses. Not to mention about food and vegetable. Hardly any countries have agriculture left, its all imported from those that specialize in it. What will those people eat? Bread and water? |
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Sound reasonable, I know a few germans where I live and they love technology, no wonder why they are the technology capital of europe. If we can get them to join NXT they can bring valuable experience and capital to NXT. It will definitely be a very interesting project for technology lovers. |
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