Gambling can be profitable in the long run! It is possible!

[RealBitcoin]

This is a response to the threads:
Topic: Everyone looses in the long run  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1199744.0
Topic: Can gambling be profitable in long term ? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1186546.0

Yes gambling can be profitable in the long run. It is a mathematical possibility. I`m not a gambling shill, but i`m very frustrated when people put out misleading information. The truth is important.


So here are a few outcomes:
1.  Gambling can be profitable in the long term for the gambler
2.  Gambling cannot be profitable in the long term for the gambler
3.  Gambling can be profitable in the long term for the house
4.  The house can go bankrupt

All of these 4 scenarios could happen,under different circumstances. They are not impossible. It all depends on luck.


Take the following scenario for long term profitability for the gambler:

1000 gamblers gamble 100$ every day on slotmachine. The house edge is 1%. The total money wagered is 100,000$ every day.

The house makes on average: 1000$/day
So the rest of the 99,000$ is changing hands between gamblers.

So the following scenario could happen: 400 gamblers win consistently for 1 year for example, and 600 gamblers lose consistently for 1 year.

Now the 400 gamblers wager 40,000$ and the 600 gamblers wager 60,000$. The total profit of the 400 gamblers thus is 59,000$ since 1000$ goes to the house.

Thus divide that by 400, each gambler wagers 100$, and wins 147.5$ every single day for 1 year.

Or it could be that 200 of that 400 wins only 73.5$/day consistently, and the other 200 wins 295$ /day consistently.

Or many other, infinitely many other variations of this scenario.




Look it's all possible, only luck will tell, so don't tell me that winning consistently on the long term is impossible.

In infinity all gamblers would lose, and only the house would win (if it doesnt get wiped out by some big jackpots in a row), no doubt about that, but how much does the average gambler play 5-10 years? In that time range this scenario that I described is totally possible.

In the example above, your probability of winning long term is:  (40% * the probability of the probability distribution happening that is required to have the 1 year consistency).

This is not necessarly accurate representation, but it's an illustration how a negative expectancy game's probability distribution looks like.
Gamblers winning is a tail event with low probability, nontheless it's mathematically possible to happen:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution#Continuous_probability_distribution
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

You just need to calculate that area and you got the probability of your scenario set to happen:



You can calculate that area:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-test

Now this doesn't mean that you, the gambler will win, you can end up in the 600 gambler group and always lose. However if you luck is good, then you can win consistently.

Basically it all comes down to luck, lucky is the only variable that determines weather you are a loser or a winner, nothing else matters really, only luck.

Luck is the only thing that matters in gambling

So I wish you all good luck gamblers!

[SyGambler]

it's impossible , when we talk about long term we aren't talking about one year where are talking about mathematical concepts
the house will keep making money and the players at the end will run out of funds , it's impossible to beat -EV games unless there is a +EV bounty or Jackpot
even Einstein said about roulette that No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking

[RealBitcoin]

it's impossible , when we talk about long term we aren't talking about one year where are talking about mathematical concepts
the house will keep making money and the players at the end will run out of funds , it's impossible to beat -EV games unless there is a +EV bounty or Jackpot
even Einstein said about roulette that No One Can Win at Roulette Unless He Steals Money from the Table While the Croupier Isn’t Looking

Yes we are talking about 5-10 years because nobody gambles infinitely many times.

It is possible to beat negative expectancy if you have a favorable probability distribution.


If you bet on Red chip in roulette and the distribution is this:

R ,R ,R ,B ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,B ...

You just ended up a net winner.

[amrulshare]

Your review may be true that there is also, all that could happen if our luck is very strong and a lot of funds.
Most players lose large funding shortfall if according to my experience playing gambling. 

[syamster]

Lots of thing to before doing betting, first of all you must have a strategy, then money management, even though you have both the things, its possible to loss, so it is important dont do over betting....

[icaruz]

gambling is addicting,you wont stop until you will loose everything.!!!

when you gamble you must know when to stop.

[RealBitcoin]

Your review may be true that there is also, all that could happen if our luck is very strong and a lot of funds.
Most players lose large funding shortfall if according to my experience playing gambling. 

Yes a larger fund may increase your chance of survival but it also increases the risk, as you can lose it too.

But it all depends on luck, you can win the jackpot on your firs bet: a lottery ticket of 5€ can bring you 500,000,000€. So its not always the case of large funds needed.

[Joel_Jantsen]

All those figures are based on assumptions and doesn't have to be possibly true.In mathematically terms your assumption is not a corollary but a theorem.I agree that is proved with various predictions but those situations won't actually happen in real life.

[RealBitcoin]

All those figures are based on assumptions and doesn't have to be possibly true.In mathematically terms your assumption is not a corollary but a theorem.I agree that is proved with various predictions but those situations won't actually happen in real life.

It is based on mathematical facts. How likely it is?

I dont know, but it can be calculated if you have spare time for it. However it is possible.


Moreover, my example was only 1 out of infinite variations how that scenario could play out.

Given how random walks work, eventually all paths will be crossed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

[DonFintoni]

You also need to factor in the type of game being played. So for example Poker and Sports betting are the gambling games with the best chance of being profitable in the long run, with casino games having the lowest chance of long run profitability.

But it still requires you playing perfectly (poker) or taking advantage of mis-pricing (sports betting).

[RealBitcoin]

You also need to factor in the type of game being played. So for example Poker and Sports betting are the gambling games with the best chance of being profitable in the long run, with casino games having the lowest chance of long run profitability.

But it still requires you playing perfectly (poker) or taking advantage of mis-pricing (sports betting).

All games could be profitable, even if you have a house edge of 99%.

It is only a matter of right probability distribution.

Please read up on it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution

[Joel_Jantsen]

All those figures are based on assumptions and doesn't have to be possibly true.In mathematically terms your assumption is not a corollary but a theorem.I agree that is proved with various predictions but those situations won't actually happen in real life.

It is based on mathematical facts. How likely it is?

I dont know, but it can be calculated if you have spare time for it. However it is possible.


Moreover, my example was only 1 out of infinite variations how that scenario could play out.

Given how random walks work, eventually all paths will be crossed:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

What is the probability of the event "1 out of infinite" happening ?Let's prove this by using some basic probability formulas

Lets assume our sample space is not infinite and say its  10,000.

Lets assume "A" is the event of 1 person getting a "win in the long run" from the available sample space.

The probability is as follows :
P(A)=n(A)/n(SampleSpace)
       =0.0001

So the chances of satisfying this event is point zero zero zero which is next to impossible but hey doesn't mean its totally not impossible as considering total probability being 1.
 

[RealBitcoin]

What is the probability of the event "1 out of infinite" happening ?Let's prove this by using some basic probability formulas

It is not 1 event, it is infinite events.

You can variate my example in post #1 infinite times.


But i`m sure it can be quantified if you calculate the tail probability of it. Gambling distribution is gaussian, so you just need to measure the probability of a  tail event happening and you got it.

But again there are infinite variations of that scenario and each one is ranked on different probability levels. So you need to calculate that area actually.

So I would illustrate it like this:



The orange area is my example, it's a tail event, and there are infinite variations of it, in that space.

However nontheless it's a measurable subset of the probability function that can be calculated if you have spare time.

[rivoke]

AFAIK you can win gamble if you know when to stop otherwise house edge will "killing" you.
I learn math on elementary school that lossing chance is greater than winning one

[RealBitcoin]

Updated post #1, I try to explain it better because people dont understand what a probabiltiy distibution is:

This is not necessarly accurate representation, but it's an illustration how a negative expectancy game's probability distribution looks like.
Gamblers winning is a tail event with low probability, nontheless it's mathematically possible to happen:

You just need to calculate that area and you got the probability of your scenario set to happen:



You can calculate that area:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z-test

[DonFintoni]

You also need to factor in the type of game being played. So for example Poker and Sports betting are the gambling games with the best chance of being profitable in the long run, with casino games having the lowest chance of long run profitability.

But it still requires you playing perfectly (poker) or taking advantage of mis-pricing (sports betting).

All games could be profitable, even if you have a house edge of 99%.

It is only a matter of right probability distribution.

Please read up on it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distribution

Gambling firms do a lot of things to try and remove the player edge, be it as simple as table limits/max bets or cross selling you more profitable games all the way up to refusing any further business for consistent winners. So while mathematically I think you are correct, in reality it can be very difficult to be in the long tail of profitable winners due to random chance.

[RealBitcoin]

Gambling firms do a lot of things to try and remove the player edge, be it as simple as table limits/max bets or cross selling you more profitable games all the way up to refusing any further business for consistent winners. So while mathematically I think you are correct, in reality it can be very difficult to be in the long tail of profitable winners due to random chance.

Half true. The casinos usually put those measures in place to protect the house profit, but they can still win eachother's money.

Like in a roulette for example you have maximum bet size so that a guy with 1 billion dollar cannot martingale itself to infinity and bankrupt the casino.

However if he bets flat, he can still win the other people's money.

[DonFintoni]

Gambling firms do a lot of things to try and remove the player edge, be it as simple as table limits/max bets or cross selling you more profitable games all the way up to refusing any further business for consistent winners. So while mathematically I think you are correct, in reality it can be very difficult to be in the long tail of profitable winners due to random chance.

Half true. The casinos usually put those measures in place to protect the house profit, but they can still win eachother's money.

Like in a roulette for example you have maximum bet size so that a guy with 1 billion dollar cannot martingale itself to infinity and bankrupt the casino.

However if he bets flat, he can still win the other people's money.

I may have misunderstood you, but that's not how roulette works, you don't win the money from the other players but from the house.

You are absolutely right, the max bet on the roulette table helps prevent the martingale system from working and also reduce the variance on house profits. The free drinks keep the player at the table longer etc etc

[RealBitcoin]

I may have misunderstood you, but that's not how roulette works, you don't win the money from the other players but from the house.

You are absolutely right, the max bet on the roulette table helps prevent the martingale system from working and also reduce the variance on house profits. The free drinks keep the player at the table longer etc etc

No you win it from the other gamblers ,where the house acts as the medium of exchange. The house keeps it's comission, the house edge, and the rest of it is distributed through other gamblers.

[DonFintoni]

I may have misunderstood you, but that's not how roulette works, you don't win the money from the other players but from the house.

You are absolutely right, the max bet on the roulette table helps prevent the martingale system from working and also reduce the variance on house profits. The free drinks keep the player at the table longer etc etc

No you win it from the other gamblers ,where the house acts as the medium of exchange. The house keeps it's comission, the house edge, and the rest of it is distributed through other gamblers.

Nope, that's not how roulette works. Every player at the table is betting against the house. For example, if every player bets on red and wins, the house pays.

Poker is where the players are playing against each other and the house takes a "rake" as a fee for hosting the game and there is no house edge.