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3181  Economy / Economics / Re: The Role of Government in Crypto on: August 30, 2021, 09:01:39 PM
The role of government in crypto should probably be no different from its usual role as regulator, however the devil is in the detail: how is crypto going to be regulated without hindering innovation, what is going to be considered crypto, how is that control going to be implemented and perhaps we could even go as far as saying what is going to be legal and what is not. Obviously, governments need to act on this promptly for fiscal reasons and to avoid the already thriving scandals.
3182  Economy / Economics / Re: what makes us good investors. on: August 30, 2021, 08:16:28 PM
This is rarely mentioned but one of the keys is patience. It has been said that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a calculating machine in the long time. Thus, the first bit of being and investor is "to be right", that is, choosing wisely and successfully the assets you buy, however you also need to allow enough time for the rest of the market to realise that you were essentially right. This may take from a few days to a few years. The later may require plenty of conviction on your ideas.
3183  Economy / Economics / Re: Enjoy communism (II): Venezuela to cut 6 zeros from its currency on: August 29, 2021, 11:36:40 PM
I am going to update this thread, so that it is not forgotten, because a parallel thread has appeared wanting to deny the obvious, and saying that hyperinflation in Venezuela has nothing to do with Communism.
The incompetent government in Venezuela is certainly partly to blame. But not exclusively. Venezuela has a long and troubled history due largely to its oil wealth. Communist states are a bad idea, but they don't tend to arise out of nowhere; they are a misguided attempt to fix the failures of the preceding system. I think it's overly simplistic to blame everything on the Red Menace. Reality tends to be coloured more in shades of grey.


hyperinflation is characteristic of communist countries
If you are trying to make a general point that hyperinflation occurs exclusively in communist states, and is an inevitability, then this statement is misleading and untrue.


Certainly, +1 on that. Again, not a defender of communism as a viable and likeable way of governing and tbh I do not think Venezuela is truly communist. But, beyond that, you will certainly admit that Erdogan is not a communist leader precisely, and you may see how the Turkish Lira is in hyperinflation. A few countries in Africa y, this is me guessing, Afghan currency are on the same path and none of these could be classed as communist regimes.

Inflation is a hidden tax from an irresponsible government to their citizens.

It does not appear that Biden is willing to invade the country. Not for a humanitarian issue and not for oil. And the little opposition left in the country is too weakened by hunger to mount a revolution. .

Why would anybody even want to invade that crap hole?

It would turn out just like Afghanistan. You cannot fix these people.

Deleting zeros from a currency is just another way of saying "our currency is dead". Turkey did the same thing few years ago and the first "0" already came back.

"That people" of which I happen to know a few do not need fixing. They are mostly tired of their government and what they are doing to the country. Venezuela was one of the best LATAM economies not that long ago - a place that anyone would like to live in.
3184  Economy / Economics / Re: Nigeria leads sub-Saharan Africa’s P2P bitcoin trade on: August 29, 2021, 11:13:26 PM
In other circumstances, I would congratulate all Nigerian nationals and residents for achieving that marvellous record. The reason why I cannot do that is that usually bitcoin is mostly used and traded outstandingly or in a larger proportion compared to the economy of the country, in countries where the governments are acting so irresponsibly in monetary and fiscal terms that people just choose to accept the volatility of bitcoin rather than just experience the volatility of their own currencies.
3185  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Every altcoins has chance on: August 29, 2021, 11:06:06 PM
The opposite of the title of this post is actually true: Most altcoins do not even stand a minimum chance of success - not even of the most modest success and not even by any measure you ever try to use. The fact is that most coins lack a serious use case that is actually demanded by a community of users. Those that could potentially have a use case are obscured by a million stupid proposals and some are simply an idea with the wrong people behind it.
3186  Economy / Economics / The lending problem on: August 29, 2021, 10:57:07 PM
A simple question to the forum - I hope that people can provide sensible answers, since it would be way too easy to preach rather than to reason.

It has been mentioned many times in the forum that banks can be killed by bitcoin and that crypto is a threat for central banks, etc... One of the reasons that make me doubt about that possibility is the worldwide need of having a strong lending and borrowing system. I think that currently DeFi does not offer a realistic solution and that lending eventually has to rely on an intermediary. That, in some way or under a different name, is a bank.

How is this problem addressed currently and how could it be solved at large scale without a "bank" of shorts?
3187  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Dead Coins on: August 29, 2021, 10:51:43 PM
Do I hold dead coins? You can bet your ass that I hold probably a dozen of those Smiley I do not think that anyone that has been around crypto trying here and there for enough time could answer that question differently. What surprises me is your question about how to manage these. You do not need to manage them, what you need to do is print a list of dead holdings and stick it in a visible place near your cryptoworking place and take a look at it everytime an ICO looks too good to be true.
3188  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: An alternative to Poker on: August 29, 2021, 10:46:28 PM
Poker is a game in which math is heavily involved in weighting odds and understanding the risks and rewards on a certain situation, particularly Texas Hold'em has been studied over and over and many of the great players are also kind of chess masters in terms of ability. However, the OP saying that poker has been "solved by algorithms" does not make any sense. An algorithm can estimate odds probably better than any person, but estimating odds is not enough to win systematically.
3189  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: August 29, 2021, 10:41:19 PM
Transfer rumours:

Real Madrid have given Paris St-Germain until Sunday to accept their bid for France forward Kylian Mbappe, as the Spanish club are not willing to offer more than 190m euros (£163m) for the 22-year-old. Will the clubs eventually agree or will this saga continue until next year?  Grin
Portugal forward Cristiano Ronaldo, 36, will become the highest-paid player in Premier League history when he completes his move from Juventus to Manchester United. Will he also become the greatest player in Premier League history?  Grin
Manchester United are planning to make a late move for 30-year-old England right-back Kieran Trippier, with Atletico Madrid said to be demanding 40m euros (£34.3m) for the former Tottenham player. Manchester United are bringing in a lot of new players again but will it help them to finally win the national championship?

Source: https://www.bbc.com/sport/58371837

What Real Madrid did was right by not raising the offer for Mbappe, PSG should have accepted an offer from Madrid. Because Madrid's offer is very high
for a player whose contract expires soon, if PSG do not accept Madrid's offer. PSG will release Mbappe next season for free, it's a very bad decision
in my opinion. Cristiano Ronaldo is a great player, he will set many records in the Premier League, I can't wait to see Ronaldo's debut with Man United.
For Kieran Trippier's transfer, it seems difficult to realize, because Man United objected to Atletico's asking price.

I agree, sometimes is just better to keep your coin rather than keeping a player with a short contract and even Mbappe is not as good investment from a marketing perspective than other players with which the Spanish public may better identify themselves. That is quite important on these time in which the teams use much less their own home grown players and tend to overstretch. Real Madrid could start looking overseas... meaning the Americas, as Europe is a far too expensive market today.
3190  Other / Off-topic / Re: La Liga huge investment - up to 15% for players - predictions change on: August 29, 2021, 10:35:43 PM
It seems that Barca was not able to defend Messi after all, or perhaps it no longer made sense to do so. I think that at least they are keeping a good war chest, but, as I understand the situation, they are not going to be able to solve their strategy for this year. I think that the problem should not extend further. Madrid however is less dependant on an specific player, not that Ronaldo was not excellent.. it is that he was mostly excellent at selling t-shirts.
3191  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2020/21 on: August 29, 2021, 10:21:22 PM
Barca is still trying to find itself and failing miserably. Messi has left a space that seems impossible to fill, even if they get someone half-decent in the market, the shock is too big and I think that is quite safe to overload the bets against Barca for now and I think that will keep being so for at least the first half of the season if not longer. You can surely bet that it won´t win La Liga and we will see if they are even able to have a chance next year.
3192  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto is not limited till buying Bitcoins, it is beyond this. on: August 29, 2021, 09:46:25 PM
We saw threads where discussions sparked about how will the poor take the advantage of crypto and all of them limit their thinking to what will happen if BTC skyrockets. There were lots of great answers, but we have a different approach here in this matter. Even if the poor believe that they have missed the BTC train, why don't they spread their vision and look around?

We have:
+ NFTs (we know about one user who sold an NFT for $60k that he won for free - a life changing experience)

+ DeFi tokens (liquidity pools, staking, farming are all giving huge returns for small investors)

+ P2E (Play 2 Earn is another way to make money by playing games online and getting tokens or NFTs as rewards, some games have different types of rewards)

NTFs make sense only under certain conditions. The "art" NTFs that do not confer exclusive use of anything, just a proof of "ownership" are, in my view, worthless. NTF that confer use of in-game items and skins are valuable, but only while the game is in trend and games typically have a limited life span.

DeFi is a problem on itself. The "dividens" for staking are the cost of keeping the net safe, and usually those networks are not being used sufficiently. P2E... I have not a view.
3193  Economy / Economics / Re: Do Bitcoin moving average (EMA/SMA) derivatives exist? Would they make sense? on: August 29, 2021, 12:28:52 AM
I am not aware of these existing for bitcoin nor for any other asset to be honest. However, it is mostly a question of how much money would there be to be made, since you can potentially encapsulate any formula on a CDS contract and start playing with it. One of the keys to actually create a market is to have a use case that goes beyond speculation: example, the futures contract on oil are used by companies to stabilise their costs or income regardless of the price.

Would there be a use case for this derivative?
3194  Economy / Economics / Re: Bullish? Bankers Issue ‘Seismic’ Warning: crypto could replace USD in 5 years on: August 28, 2021, 05:36:43 PM
When these people speak I always tend to "translate" what they say. For example, "stock X will raise a lot" means that they are loaded and they would like you to buy to pump it. If they say bitcoin will replace the USD, they mean: "we are loaded of bitcoin and our clients have bought big time, so now we want you to buy a pump". Most of the estimate and forecasts that are made public are so simple to read that I am still amazed that people fall for these over and over.
3195  Economy / Economics / Re: Would you be able to take an additional work if required? on: August 28, 2021, 05:33:51 PM
It seems that in the UK now there is a labour shortage - not for all jobs, but for those that were usually taken by the Eastern Europeans and the Polish. With BREXIT, you need to have a Visa to work in the UK, so many people who took seasonal jobs without any friction now are in their countries while UK farmers and hospitality business owners are having to raise the prices to pay for the increased salaries for retaining the workers.

There were comments of "foreigners taking up English jobs"... it seems that the English never wanted those jobs anyway.
3196  Economy / Economics / Re: Baltic - Black Sea Union as an alternative to the EU. on: August 28, 2021, 12:01:35 AM
You could put together any number of names and it would not look as unlikely as this union which lacks any strength or meaning. There is nothing that would make this stick together to be honest. You may want to check the history of economic unions and particularly what makes these worthy of that name. The old hanseatic union or some other trade alliances were not very strong, but there were clear interest aligned on these and clear limits to the union.
3197  Economy / Economics / Re: Cuba the next country to accept cryptocurrencies? on: August 27, 2021, 11:57:50 PM
Despite the idealistic view of Havana, keeping the ruinous unpainted buildings from the view, there is an underliying system that is happy to keep the people poor. Some people would argue that while someone is looking for food and money, they are not planning a revolution - at least that´s a friend of mine theory. Anyway, Cuba is a lot about control, bitcoin is a lot about self control and self sovereignty etc... I do not see these two things matching and the government there has a fresh supply of strong currency from turism.
3198  Economy / Economics / Re: Masters in Blockchain and Digital Currency on: August 27, 2021, 01:05:17 AM
There is a case for a Master on blockchain, crypto and all the ecosystem. To be honest, to properly understand bitcoin and crypto you would need to dig into psychology, history, economy (micro and macro), computer science (particularly cryptology), electronics and perhaps a few other disciplines. My take is that most of the formation out there is going to be focused on programming and computer science, so if you have studied BA or and MBA, you would not need a full master, but rather and understanding on the inner workings of these systems from the programming and logic view to complement your understanding of the microeconomic and finance side of it.
3199  Economy / Economics / Re: Enjoy comunism (III) rats eating dead people and people eating rats in NK on: August 27, 2021, 12:57:33 AM
There is a general misunderstanding about Capitalism and Socialism governments. The fact that a state provides some free services does not make it communist.

I have never said that. But I tell you what I usually say when they talk to me about "free" services. They are never "free". You don't pay for them on a bill, but you pay for them via taxes.

In the case of health care, I think it is right that it should be universal (not free), because demand is inelastic: you can decide not to buy clothes or mend old clothes or not to go out so much, etc., but if you have a heart attack you have to be treated now. The demand side is totally different in health issues.

I am afraid that the precise definition is quite fluid and there is a grayscale of possibilities.

And we will agree that the best system is a mixture of both: free enterprise, respect for private property, etc., combined with some redistribution. Which from what I understand you are more in favor of taxation and redistribution than I am (I would say there are a few forumers of a similar opinion to yours, such as Cnut237 and suchmoon).

For me, there is clear proof that those "thin states" cannot provide safety, continuity and opportunity for all, just as communism cannot either.

I would say that they are essentially different because the history of mankind shows the opposite: the great states that are dedicated to redistribution arose precisely from "thin" states that created wealth. If you put a huge state where there is no wealth created, you are not going to have anything to redistribute. States are extremely inefficient at creating wealth. I would say that the more regulations and taxes they put in place, the more efficient they are at destroying it.

If you take the UK as example during the XVIII and XIX centuries, the state was anything but thin. If you take Germany, same case.


I was more in line to people saying socialist and communist to anything that implies redistribution, perhaps not your case. About how much is redistributed, who pays for it and what is "included" (obviously paid with taxes, I did not even think that had to be said), that would be where I would focus a discussion and the adjustments that different economic cycles may require.

RE thin states, please notice that I said they cannot provide safety and stability on a continuous basis. If you look at an initially very thin state (US) a few of the first things that had to be setup was the ability to collect taxes, the centralisation of money emission, a pan-state law,... It was simply impossible to run a country if you had to ask all the states for permission and money to, for example, pay an army to defend it.

State structures cost money and, I believe that there is enough proof of these being required.
3200  Economy / Economics / Re: Enjoy comunism (III) rats eating dead people and people eating rats in NK on: August 26, 2021, 11:37:31 AM
-snip

Yes, that's why I said in a previous post, that in reality, many times what we call capitalism is actually social democracy, a mixture of free enterprise and individual initiative with regulations and redistribution. I find it very funny to hear people complaining about capitalism in countries where the public sector accounts for more than 50% of GDP, they have high taxes, public health care (which I am in favor of), etc.

Quite capitalist is a country like Singapore, but in general it is not the European countries.


basically both are like aiming for social, where they help each other. in a capitalist country, someone is allowed to work so that they have a lot of income until finally the state collects taxes to equalize development which will later be for the equality of society. and for a socialist country, this is purely in the hands of the government, so that citizens' lives are equal


There is a general misunderstanding about Capitalism and Socialism governments. The fact that a state provides some free services does not make it communist. I am afraid that the precise definition is quite fluid and there is a grayscale of possibilities.

Particularly, there is a tendency to confuse economic liberalism and the Austrian School of though with Capitalism. I my very humble view, that is only a version of Capitalism. The basis are right to individual property, free enterprise and the possibility of  investing for a return. This has nothing to do with the liberal versions that propose a thin state or zero intervention.

For me, there is clear proof that those "thin states" cannot provide safety, continuity and opportunity for all, just as communism cannot either.



Only their leaders and the rich ones are enjoying this kind of government. The hunger in NK is caused by poor government who's crazy in building weapons rather than producing food added by economic sanctions given by international community. Their leaders are having their best lives while their constituents where hungry and having no opportunities to have a good life. I feel sad for these people.
Of course that's how it is, communism is just an illusion so the real tyrants can trick the population into believing that they're going to deliver them the paradise ..

Yes, just as Capitalism sell the paradise of material goods, the "opportunity for all", the self-made millionaire dream... Is there a system that is not promising utopia?


People do know what's going on in Venezuela for the most part, everyone just ignores it because we're not allowed to talk about how socialist countries fail hopelessly with their economic situation, and how hyperinflation spirals out of control when you put all your eggs in one basket. With Venezuela, the price of oil dropped and their economy crashed because there wasn't enough economic activity to pick up where the oil left off, thanks to the government.

The mainstream media is mostly left-wing (with a few exceptions such as Fox news) and want us to believe that Socialism will result in rivers of milk and honey. But in reality, it results in the slavery of 99% of the population by the 1% elite (similar to the case in North Korea and Cuba). It is very interesting that most of those who praise socialism nowadays are those who have no experience of living in a socialist country. Hopefully these guys will get an experience to enjoy the wonders of socialist rule, when Kamala Harris is elected as the POTUS in 2024.

And that may happen only thanks to your marvellous version of Capitalism has failed millions of people. on the promise of milk and honey. You do not get the moral high -ground on undelivered promises. N

Totally agree with this one, there's no such thing as equal in communism, it's just a tyrant replacing another tyrant with the current tyrant saying that they're the savior of the people even though it's not the case. It's just so sad that this is also a test of loyalty because you won't suffer from the wrath of communism if you are utterly loyal towards the tyrants in power.


Communism has killed more people than any ideology other than organized religion in the recorded history. Mao Zedong caused 80 million deaths, while Josef Stalin is close behind with 60 million to his name. Then there are a few others like Pol Pot and Kim Jong Il, with a few millions to their name. If people still support this horrible ideology even after all this, then I have to say that they are delusional. Communism is an ideology that needs to be wiped out from the surface of earth, just like other horrible ideologies such as Nazism and Wahhabism.


That is not true. Imperialism  and expansionism of the capitalist countries has killed more people that any other ideology. Kaiser´s Germany was not communist, Hitler was certainly not Socialist and  Japan was not communist nor the US was socialist when dropping Fat Boy on Japan, nor UK was communist when setting Hamburg in fire. I do not mean to make a  competition of this, and I am certainly not a supporter of tyranny in any manifestation,  but I am tired of  propaganda and the  attempts to compare and elected government with authoritarian  despots.
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