The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days. What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts".
No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end. No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse.
No on can explain why it happened. No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West.
So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much?
The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched.
[ ... ]
Hang on a minute... this is Bitcoin we are talking about? the same one as usual right? volatility is not exactly rare... infact I thought it was more than expected by all? ancd the market goes both ways right? I am pretty sure that it goes up down sideways, up down sideways , etc it has done it as long as I have looked... with BTC even more so... I just do not get the surprise.... [ ... ] Seems I was not clear. Sure there has always been volatility, and large drops before, but until two months ago it was "expected volatility" that fitted the grand model: namely, average 1000% growth every year, through a series of bubbles more or less regularly spaced in time. The drop after the November peak was eevn seen as a good thing because it was seen as a repeat of the drop after the April 2013 peak, and thus confirmed that pattern. And the rise from May/20 to Jun/10 and the following plateau recalled what happened from July through the end of September last year. But this drop does not fit that pattern any more. It is not the panic drop from ~125$ to ~85 on Oct/02, that was quicly reversed. Analists were expecting the next bubble a month ago, but instead got a week of almost steady drop that brought the price down to the same level as the bottom of the "2014 Silk-Road-Like Dip". So, what is the grand model now? err sorry but I disagree totally with the litle box you are trying to paint... this is Bitcoin... it is volatile... and it has had prolonged periods of less volatility and sideways... and this is still totally expected... yes people are "expecting" another large move and still are... you assert that because it has not done it yet, this is "unexpected" ..... maybe you are spending too much time in the echo chamber yourself.... I am expecting more movement ...over the next few years... yeah I am still bullish longterm.. and yeah I am still thinking it is possible we get a large move upwards and moves downwards.... nothing has changed... I have been watching this for years now... and Bitcoin is unexpected... Bitcoin does not stick to hard and fast rules... Bitcoin is developiing in many various ways , and with many various avenues and investments etc etc... just because it has not ticked a box that many may have thought would happen already, including it seems you... and yeah maybe even me... does not mean that "it does not fit the pattern any more" 2011? anyone? also I would put it to you that after the few years thus far there is not pattern yet... this is Bitcoin... the same Bitcoin that has been steadily growing since 2009 , with busrts of growth , spats of sideways , spats of longer sideways and huge waves of volatility... I see no real evidence to state this has now "broken a pattern" that sounds to me like you are trying to fit it into your little box to string your narrative along... but sorry Jorge the market is not just going to go poof just because a winding down prof in brazil thinks the pattern is broken. In the BTC that i have been looking at for the past years... yeah I had hoped for a move already... on a personal level that is... that does not mean jack... I really think it is daft to suggest that this is it... and I will remind you of this when we do get the inevitable move upwards, (and then the one following that downwards) one thing I am sure of.. BTC market will continue to move , continue to surprise, continue to grow in many different ways... until it does not... but we are not at the "it is not" point now, we are........ as I am sure people are aware...only at the start of all of this.... |
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Of all the exchanges which would be the best or most preferred to trade on? Or do people just have accounts on all of them?
MtGox is good....  Thanks I'm not quite that new.. Maybe Bitstamp/Coinbase? where are you based? |
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How miserable is the board? Haven't been here the last day or two.
Just curious. Is everyone prepared for the possibility of retesting 420, 340 and 260? Is everyone ready to test <$260?
Not saying its going to happen, I'm just saying you might want to PREPARE yourself mentally and emotionally with that reality. You might want to have a gut check NOW instead of waiting until one of those scenarios plays out.
A few months ago when we recovered off the lows at 340 there was a lot of optimism around - things were just playing out like normal. Currently, some people STILL think its playing out like "normal" that we won't go below 420 or 340 or lower. Just can't happen. Well that MIGHT be true. But what if its not??? ---> are you ready for that possibility??
If I was you, I'd have that conversation with myself soon. Because within the next month, its a possibility.
Bro Bro..or Sis SiS just make sure you got some fiat to buy the flash crashes and ensuing panic...Unless you never really believed in bitcoin...or are Mr. Psychopath day trader? Then dump dump? all day? It is pretty cliche to say its the internet of its time, but this innovation in securing, storing, transferring wealth, and the things we will build off of it as it becomes mainstream is truly not fully appreciated by many people. I would imagine so because it's been used for a highly speculative purpose, and buying drugs  and some pizza. hmmmm drugs and pizza hmmmmm I will have coke with that. |
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The price may recover, perhaps even in a few days. What will be hard to recover is the credibility of bitcoin, and of bitcoin "experts". No one saw this dip coming, no one could tell where it would end. No one can tell whether it will stop at 460$, keep falling, or reverse. No on can explain why it happened. No one can tell for sure even where it was made in China or in the West. So how could people tell whether and when the price will rise again, and by how much? The "exponential trend" and the "periodic bubble theory" now seem rather far-fetched. Fund salesmen will have a hard time convincing people to invest. How could an analyst honestly recommend it to his clients? Or maybe not, there will always be suckers who will belive a good sales pitch and buy without researching...  Hang on a minute... this is Bitcoin we are talking about? the same one as usual right? volatility is not exactly rare... infact I thought it was more than expected by all? ancd the market goes both ways right? I am pretty sure that it goes up down sideways, up down sideways , etc it has done it as long as I have looked... with BTC even more so... I just do not get the surprise.... I will surprise you somemore.. the market is going to continue to be volatile and go up down sideways on a regular basis... we have not seen nothing yet... and it will continue until of course there is far more liquidity through the exchanges... it was never surprising that we could go down, it was more surprising we stayed sideways for so long, and down before an up was ALWAYS on the cards, when the volatility kicks in, which is needed to jump up the price, then it swings wildly both ways, it is also possible for a down swing followed by another down swing... no shit... and guess what.. after that the price will continue to move... we will get an upswing thrown in somewhere along the line too... markets... they move, BTC especially, everyone here knows this by now right? If you still believe in BTC long term.. this is nothing but either entertainment or opportunity. Set my alarms for $435 - going for a long nap. |
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Of all the exchanges which would be the best or most preferred to trade on? Or do people just have accounts on all of them?
MtGox is good.... |
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How miserable is the board? Haven't been here the last day or two.
Just curious. Is everyone prepared for the possibility of retesting 420, 340 and 260? Is everyone ready to test <$260?
Not saying its going to happen, I'm just saying you might want to PREPARE yourself mentally and emotionally with that reality. You might want to have a gut check NOW instead of waiting until one of those scenarios plays out.
A few months ago when we recovered off the lows at 340 there was a lot of optimism around - things were just playing out like normal. Currently, some people STILL think its playing out like "normal" that we won't go below 420 or 340 or lower. Just can't happen. Well that MIGHT be true. But what if its not??? ---> are you ready for that possibility??
If I was you, I'd have that conversation with myself soon. Because within the next month, its a possibility.
Well I bet that cheered everyone up |
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you know its a busy day when people are quoting trolls However I just beat myself up for not having flash crash money on exchange.. Sadly broken record sounding as I repeat this all the time. However I was just to iffy on holding cash on an exchange for a long period of time despite having full confidence in CaVirtEx that happens everyday around here |
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crap
oh dear god man get a bloody grip you poor sod... seriously, you fool no one, and your account is 2 days old... you have no track record at all of anything... and the "former" you and the people "flocking" to you for "advice" is just all a load of bull , unless you prove it... easy to do, will take you 2 seconds in the following steps Post your old name, proving you are a "well trusted community member" or what ever crap you assert. Post the names of your supposed "flock" (ha ha ha) Then create another spammy account to add to your collection of sockpuppets and you are back to where you are now in the event you get banned "again" and you can start off spouting crap with another account and in two days it will be just as "legendary" as this crap one you use now.. and what is another account to add to the list you already have ? job done.. simple your move put up or really please shut up and go and get a life proof or it never happened. |
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Something to think about: BFX said that 7k btc were dumped to create the long squeeze a few days ago. There are only ~100 people with that many coins. If you take into account that they would not risk more than half of their entire holdings, there are only ~40 or 50 max. If you say they are smart enough not to risk more than 20%, there are very few.
So one of the bitcoin big shots is the one who screwed the market and tried to bankrupt the longs. The 7M USD in coins (probably much more) that he already owned wasn't enough.
Disappointing, isn't it?
They never said all 7k were dumped by a single entity. This was caused by many players *together* cutting their loose. Cut *your* loose before it's too late! you have no credibility unless you tell us who you "used to be" which I notice you declined to do...nor the names of the people flocking to you for advice... everything that comes out of your mouth and that of your sockpuppets is total crapola. |
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Im actually buying some coins, but I wonder if I should sell a few (over a 100) and buy them back since I can almost guarantee that sometime tonight well test 400 and then rebuy.. Ive been burned in the passed doing this, but i think this may be a fairly good bet..
Thoughts?
I am a holder and dont plan on selling, I just think this downward spiral isn't over with and this may be a good time to take advantage of a for sure bear market as this isn't a trap (I think). I know im taking a chance.. but either way, Id buy them back even if I had to take a loss.
Ill probably chicken out and just hold, but im thinking about it..
Only you should answer that question... and if you are going to ask it... here is probably not the place tbh... headless chickens comes to mind. my two pence for what it is worth... there is a very good probablility of a retest and possible further dip at this point...new day dawning in China right about now... and the market is friskey... is it worth trading as you suggest? depends on how risk adverse you are and how much pain you are willing to endure... personally I would go with sitting it out.. Ideally you would wait for a clearer signal, but then if you are going to "short" as you suggest... then you are better off doing so now, catch the less risker $467 down to $435/20 and then rebuy or re-evaluate (personally I would keep my coins though!) But back to your scenario if you sold your 100 coins now and rebought at $400 you would make 16.5 coins approx.. so I guess the answer is how much pain in BTC are you willing to risk if it swings against you? then if you have a figure you can decide if the x amount risk is worth the 16.5 coins you will gain if you trade. If you sold now ($467) with a view to buy back in at $400 , and it drops but we bounce $415- $435 .. when would you buy back in ? $450? or $500? if it swings against you now to $505 say then you will shave 8 ish coins off your stash... or at $525 you would shave 12 coins approx... so there is the trade. How much do you wan the extra 16.5 coins vs how much do you not want to shave 8-12 coins... of course you could get back in before $505 but then it could just snap round on you... I think it may be a good moment to buy some fresh coins though, if you still believe in the long term prospects and you have fiat to hand. Personally I will take note if we go past 435 on stamp, and will look to buy some $380-$420, whilst keeping some powder dry for other possible scenarios. Needless to say , staying well away from leverage too, and for me away from shorting in any way with the market waking up like it is.. not worth the dent in your BTC holdings in my view... sure you may look back in hindsight and paint a perfect trade that you missed, but your 100BTC will be with you still... the swing is tradable for sure, but with a risk, the market is starting to chop, and stops hunted... at somepoint this is going to turn, so it depends on how confident you are the moment is not now.... You could have a few days of swings, in the range you suggest, even a week... or more but you just do not know... I wonder what GABI will bring in 12 days... |
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Bubble isn't going to happen... probably never, but it's certainly going to be a long time at least. People cutting their loose now, Much better places to stick your cash for the next 6 months while we wait to see where this goes.
I wonder where people are sticking their extra cash in the next 6 months? I was going to continue to put my extra cash into BTC. Is that a bad idea? Noooo disengage - step away from the keyboard ... for the love of god man...  |
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Whats up with all the 14 activity posters here telling everyone its over, pack your bags and go home?
uhhh how many times do I need to tell you people. My account was banned by moderators for spreading truth and causing a panic amongst the holdtards. That got me banned, so I was required to set up a new account. I've been through the ups and downs of this market and if there was any justice in this world, I would be "legendary". what was your account name? Obviously I can't say that or I'll be banned again. so? just start another one... to prove you are not talking bs... what was your old account name ledg? just out of interest..but you know I really could not give a crap about it/you... but there is a simple way to prove what you say.. spill the beans, start a new account , you only have like a newbie status anyway so who cares right?  Absolutely not. In this short time, "Chuckee" has become an inspiration for many on here and helped them cut their loose before it was too late. I have received several PMs from users asking for my professional insight on the market, and to leave them in this time of need would be unethical on my part. TOTAL BS! basically - spill the name or it never happened, simple (obviously) just start a new account like chucke2 or chuckeeevenmoreretarded or something like that.. what is another few accounts to add to that collection of yours? ha ha ha ha ha ha ha you .... ha ha ha .. oh my... "inspiration" really you are off your tits.. I feel really sorry for you mate... I really do , your head must be a vapid backward messed up place to be... you must have a really low opinion of people if you think anyone falls for your shyte... again... who has pm'd you? in their time of need for inspiration? names please? numpty. |
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Whats up with all the 14 activity posters here telling everyone its over, pack your bags and go home?
uhhh how many times do I need to tell you people. My account was banned by moderators for spreading truth and causing a panic amongst the holdtards. That got me banned, so I was required to set up a new account. I've been through the ups and downs of this market and if there was any justice in this world, I would be "legendary". what was your account name? I can't say that or I'll be banned again. so? Obviously just start another one... to prove you are not talking bs... what was your old account name ledg? just out of interest..but you know I really could not give a crap about it/you... but there is a simple way to prove what you say.. spill the beans, start a new account , you only have like a newbie status anyway so who cares right? |
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Whats up with all the 14 activity posters here telling everyone its over, pack your bags and go home?
uhhh how many times do I need to tell you people. My account was banned by moderators for spreading truth and causing a panic amongst the holdtards. That got me banned, so I was required to set up a new account. I've been through the ups and downs of this market and if there was any justice in this world, I would be "legendary". what was your account name? |
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Whats up with all the 14 activity posters here telling everyone its over, pack your bags and go home?
Bullshit artists that think everyone is stupid.... their mistake |
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well spotted... we are at bear trap phase |
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but there are a 156 corners up the 4301 meters to the top ; ) Take a look at what a fast ride up pikes peak looks like
http://youtu.be/M6YKqaf4Ao4 |
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Bubble isn't going to happen... probably never, but it's certainly going to be a long time at least. People cutting their loose now, Much better places to stick your cash for the next 6 months while we wait to see where this goes.
You registered here two days ago. Forgive me if i take every word you write with a pinch of salt. If it isn't going to rise again, why do you want to buy in lower? You can trust me because I bring forth an outsider's view of bitcoin. For the past year, people here have been brainwashed by the echo chamber, they have no ability to think rationally anymore! Fairly sure you are a) not an outsider, and b) probably operate more than one similar account on btc. Who are you really? Pretty sure this entire thread is just Adam talking to himself with alt accounts. Even I'm not sure I'm real. Brilliant |
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Why wouldn't bitstamp drop25$ to match btc-e
not enough vol for stamps to care really. probably the arbitrage is done already. edit: just saw the spread.. whoa big dif from stamps to btc-e. dang. i'd almost rather be holding dongs then bitcoin fuck! wat a sore day for bitcoin. i don't like touching dongs at all.. and i especially don't like feeling sore after holding a dong.
http://youtu.be/lspjLG9nHXkSoon I discovered that this rock thing was true Jerry lee Lewis was the devil Jesus was an architect previous to his career as a prophet All of a sudden, I found myself in love with the world So there was only one thing that I could do Was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long Ding dang a dong bong bing bong (Ministry - Jesus Built My Hotrod - 1991) Sounds like high octane trading sounds to me.. |
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