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3181  Economy / Economics / Re: Government slowly open the economy, will it make the pandemic worst? on: October 20, 2020, 04:32:23 AM
The stock markets have rocketed to the pre-COVID levels, and this shows that the economy is back on track. It is still dangerous to go out, but if you don't have any co-morbidities and in case you are in the 18-45 age group, then I would say that it is OK to travel to work (as long as proper precautions such as wearing mask and maintaining social distancing is taken). Children and the elderly needs to stay at home for some more time.
3182  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency: US Election 2020 on: October 20, 2020, 04:22:04 AM
i dont know the background of this guy but lets hope your thoughts were right because we all know what can happen if ever he prohibits it  .

I am not sure about this, but as far as I know the power lies with the state government and not with the federal government. That's why states such as New York came up with regulations regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The American president and the federal government doesn't have much say on these rules and regulations. And that's why I said that the situation is unlikely to change after the elections.
3183  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets on: October 20, 2020, 04:08:12 AM
FiveThirtyEight does more than just aggregating. Their 'election forecast' takes other factors into consideration. According to their site: Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day.

In 2016 they gave Trump a better chance than anybody else. Many people on the left got upset when they said Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton.

Prediction markets and casinos give Trump a better chance because a lot of early money was put on him. At the beginning of the year it was assumed that he would have an easy re-election. Then the pandemic happened and his response to it was a complete disaster. If you only look at recent weeks then we can see that this is more reflective of our current reality. A lot more people are betting on Biden and those numbers are starting to catch up to the odds we're seeing from pollsters.

One of the most important factors this time is the turnout. A few days back, I was told that almost 28 million voters have cast their ballot, through early voting. If we assume that the turnout is the same as 2016, then 20% of the votes have been already cast. But this time, there is evidence to prove that Republicans are intentionally waiting for the election day. The only thing I want to say at this point is that... it is going to be very messy, when they start counting the votes.

3184  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: October 20, 2020, 03:59:19 AM
A great game by CSK yesterday, they have been constantly improvising their defeat in this season of IPL. They have failed as a batting side which was evident by their batting yesterday. Suresh raina was an asset to CSK and it shows now For RR yesterday's match was an easy win after they restricted CSK to 125.

If I am not wrong, Suresh Raina earlier hinted that he was ready to return to the IPL. But N Srinivasan couldn't let his ego go away, and refused the proposal. From what I understood, they are trying to book one or two hard-hitting batsmen during the mid-season transfer window. I am not sure how effective these new additions can be. Replacing Raina is not easy.
3185  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: October 20, 2020, 03:39:08 AM
If you are pointing at Kedar Jadhav then i would like to point out that its not Dhoni's fault or management. I am positive that Jadhav has nudes of Dhoni and CSK management doing something inappropriate and he's blackmailing them Grin Grin.

Although I would not discount the possibility of Jadhav in possession of something like this, it needs to be noted that the strike rate for the other CSK batsmen were also quite low during yesterday's match. Sam Curran scored 22 runs from 25 balls, Rayudu 13 from 19, Dhoni 28 from 28 and so on. ONly Jadeja had a decent strike rate (116). To be brief, CSK had no intention of winning yesterday's match.
3186  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Cryptocurrency: US Election 2020 on: October 19, 2020, 07:08:25 AM
The outcome of the presidential elections never had any impact on the exchange rate of the US Dollar. The United States Dollar is the strongest fiat currency in the world right now, and it is likely to remain at that position for the next few decades. The election of neither Trump or Biden is going to cause a change in ground situation for the cryptocurrencies.
Really? How you can said so. The United States is a big nation and any changes in the politics here have dramatic impacts on the economy in the USA. and the world economy too.

The coming President election and its uncertainty after the day 3th November, Biden or Trump will easily accept result when they are losers, won't they? The uncertainty will cause financial market in a bad situation and crypto market won't be different.

Even if Biden gets elected, most of the economic policies are going to remain the same. Even if he comes up with something new, the impact on the market won't be visible for many years. And that is about the mainstream market (stock exchanges, real estate.etc). For cryptocurrency, the policy will be the same. I don't think that Biden will try to prohibit the usage of cryptocurrency.
3187  Economy / Economics / Re: Government slowly open the economy, will it make the pandemic worst? on: October 19, 2020, 06:58:32 AM
"Sex social workers"?!?Do you live in Thailand? Grin
Yes,of course that opening the economy will make the pandemic worse,but this is inevitable.
I don't think that the lockdowns and quarantines were very efficient in some countries.Most of the people just don't follow the rules and do what they want.
It's all about finding the balance between keeping a big part of the economy safe,while keeping the pandemic under control.That would be very difficult and it will require tremendous amount of efforts,but there's no easy and simple solution.

I believe the OP is from Philippines. Why do you believe that sex workers exist only in Thailand? A lot of people flock to Thailand in search of sex workers, because the system is semi-legal there (still not 100% legal). Researchers claim that this is the oldest profession and yet most of the countries don't want to legalize or regulate it. In the end, it causes the industry to be pushed underground, in to the hands of various criminal gangs and mafias.
3188  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Bitcoin betting on the 2020 US Presidential Election | Trump vs Biden on: October 19, 2020, 06:42:09 AM
Trump is now favorite in Florida.
Fair play Donald, your campaign is swinging the markets in your favor!

Not sure about FL. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden is ahead by 1.4 points. However, the race seems to have tightened there in the recent weeks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Florida is a must win state for Donald Trump. However for Biden that is not the case. Biden can win the elections comfortably even without Florida. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is going to be crucial. If Biden wins PA, then it is over for Trump. He has no chance of winning the elections, if he loses either FL or PA.
3189  Economy / Economics / Re: COVID19 VACCINE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH? on: October 19, 2020, 06:25:19 AM
You cannot know how the governments of different countries will actually behave in the event of a complication of the situation with covid.
Educational institutions can stop accepting children without a vaccine, so you have few choices for action. Either the vaccine and society, or its absence and isolation.

There can be coercive steps from the government, such as the one you posted. But I am not sure whether it is legally valid or not. Can the governments ban children from their classes, just because they are not vaccinated? Can they do that, especially when the side-effects of the vaccine are not well known? Legal challenges will be thrown and it will get complicated for the authorities. At the most, they can segregate the two groups and conduct teaching separately for them. 
3190  Other / Politics & Society / Re: French teacher beheded for anti-sharia teachings on: October 19, 2020, 06:12:00 AM
Why was this being taught in schools?  Was there really nothing secular to teach about? Although its not ok to attack someone for what they express, its also pretty fucking stupid to intentionally provoke an entire religion just for the sake of being offensive.  

Knowing that there are crazy, murderous people out there, using cartoons of the prophet is asking for trouble.  and at what benefit?  Unlike abortions, bikinis, or rebuilding on holy sites, this kind of behavior doesn't even have a use other than pissing people off.

If showing a cartoon offends your religion, then the problem lies with your belief and not with the cartoon itself. France is a secular country, which used to respect the freedom of speech. Now justifying a murder, saying that the victim was "asking for trouble" is unacceptable for me. From what I have seen, Islamists are always on the forefront while claiming the victim card. Just look at the coverage of Uighurs in China and Rohingyas in Myanmar. But they never condemn barbarous atrocities such as this beheading. 
3191  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin used for illegal activities on telegram on: October 19, 2020, 05:52:27 AM
The drug war has failed. I believe if we decriminalize drug use the world would be a better place. It would take power away from violent cartels and the prison population would be drastically reduced, saving tax payers money that could go towards more beneficial things like healthcare and education.

I have already posted about this. Decriminalization is the best way to move forward. But the governments don't want to do that, because it can have a negative impact on multiple sectors. For example, the private prison industry is very big in the United States. If the drug trade is  decriminalized, then the prisons would go bankrupt. Also, the pharma cartels make tens of billions of USD every year by selling synthetic opioids such as hydrocodone and oxymorphone. If the soft drugs are legalized, then they will also suffer huge losses.
3192  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will bitcoin transaction fees be too high in the future? on: October 19, 2020, 05:40:55 AM
When bitcoin supply mining difficulty increases, the mining ability of miners will become slow. Therefore, it might give an additional fee in the future. As we discussed here what happens when the remaining supply will be mined? It is really normal for bitcoin to have higher fees in the future. And I am hoping that bitcoin will resolve this problem because many investors and buyers are killing because of this high fees. If everyone is a millionaire, we easily afford it. But take look at the current scenario. People can`t stop complaining to the problem of high fees in ETH and BTC.

The argument from miners don't have a solid logic. If mining is so unprofitable, why they are still doing it? Most of the mining farms continue to make new investments in new mining rigs and cooling systems. Do you think they will be doing this, in case mining is a loss making exercise? The fees is not extremely high right now. But there is a lot of volatility. And this does a lot of harm to the global adoption of Bitcoin.
3193  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Feels like we are going ICO round 2 all over again on: October 19, 2020, 05:30:23 AM
Just imagine if there is no big hype of DeFi projects today will new developers start switching to DeFi potential or build DeFi projects from scratch? No I guess, this is why I think that majority of DeFi projects will die between now and coming year, a painful death I think because they will turn scam, ICO investment websites are full of unknown DeFi tokens that are targeting uniswap exchange for listing, the DeFi tokens have no ANN on this forum and they have low max supply, what's even more disturbing is that people are investing on these coins, I feel like we are going ICO round 2 again

We had so many bubbles and Ponzis in the past and I would assume investors to behave in a rational manner. There are a lot of people who lost their hard earned money to various ICO/IEO scams such as PlusToken and OneCoin. If people continue to invest in such scams, then they should be ready to face the consequences. The DeFi bubble is going to burst anytime soon. It was too much overhyped.
3194  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: The bounty scam will gradually go away on: October 19, 2020, 04:56:19 AM
Not only are developers who sometimes scam or cheat but currently there are so many participants who cheat by using other people's profile links, maybe to reduce cheating, bounty managers must use Proof of Follow by using screenshots and to overcome scam projects there should be a special community which takes care of the developer data verification to avoid a scam

While doing signature campaigns, the users can't rely on fake profiles. So the vast majority of the cheating cases can be found with social media bounties. Taking a few basic precautions can eliminate 99% of the cheating as far as social media bounty is concerned. But the big question is whether the bounty campaign managers want to put the extra effort to flag these fake profiles or not. In most of the cases, the campaign managers are only interested in their salaries and they are not much concerned whether anyone is doing cheating or not. I have seen cases where the campaign manager refused to disqualify the participants, even after adequate proof was presented to show that they were cheating.
3195  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Are Altcoins getting Boycotted? on: October 19, 2020, 04:39:48 AM
The methodology for calculating market capitalization is flawed, especially for some of the altcoins. For example, XRP was placed at no.2 in 2017, before ending up at the 4th spot. Do you really think that the market cap of XRP can be that high? I would say that the market cap is somewhat accurate only for Bitcoin. For most of the other cryptocurrencies, it is inflated. So the real Bitcoin dominance is much higher than what you see in the coinmarketcap website.
I'm very curious to know the real dominance of Bitcoin. Please help me, where can I check the real dominance of Bitcoin? We know the future is getting more digital than now. The dominance of Bitcoin will be down in the future. The main point is that altcoins aren't getting boycotted. A new transaction of Bitcoin we can see, so we need more privacy coins.

If you want to calculate the real market cap of various cryptocurrencies, then you need to study the daily exchange volumes. For coins such as XRP, the daily volumes are much lower than the assumed market cap, because the vast majority of the circulating supply is held in cold storage. If all these coins come online, then the exchange rate would be much lower than what it is now. I would assume 90% plus reduction in the exchange rate. The market cap will also decrease proportionately.
3196  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: October 19, 2020, 04:28:55 AM
However if there was a way for them to play against lower ranking teams and build some experience, then it could be a very different scenario, but this won’t happen overnight and ICC has lots of work to do to make those small teams play competitive cricket against the top teams.

The smaller teams play against the big three teams once in a while. I still remember the test match between Ireland and England, which didn't end well for the former as they were bowled out for just 38 runs in the second innings. Teams such as Ireland and Afghanistan can be competitive in T20 cricket, and up to an extent in the ODIs. But don't expect these teams to put up a good fight against England or Australia in test matches.
3197  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: October 19, 2020, 04:12:02 AM
As a cricket lover i would be very happy if i could watch cricket at the Olympic games. Almost all sports in theworld are in the Olympiv games. I don't know why the ICC havn't any interest in including cricket in the Olympics.

They probably don't want a global tournament in which they don't have much control. Previously, ECB and BCCI opposed the inclusion of cricket in Olympics, because they thought that it will have a negative impact on the viewership of the T20 World Cup. Also, the potential benefits will be directed towards the associate members, as they will get large increases in government funding. It goes against the Big 3 objective of limiting cricket to a handful of nations.

BTW, it was Shashank Manohar who showed an interest in including cricket in the Olympics. He is gone now and the power is back in the hands of those who are opposed to the globalization of cricket.
3198  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US 2020 Elections data, polls and bets on: October 19, 2020, 03:56:02 AM
Trump's chances continue to dwindle. FiveThirtyEight is only giving him a 12% chance of winning. Two days ago he was at 13% and a week ago he was at 14%. At the beginning of the month he was at 20%. This forecast is only considering the electoral votes each state represents and not the popular vote where Trump's adds are even lower.

Opinion polls never gave Trump a significant chance to win the 2020 elections at any point. However, there is a sharp difference in the odds being given by the opinion polls (FiveThirtyEight just aggregates poll data) and the odds being given by the gambling sites. According to the polls, the probability of a Trump win is within the 10%-15% range. On the other hand, according to the gambling sites it is 30%-35%.
3199  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: October 19, 2020, 03:44:50 AM
I think it too. Personally i don't see any other Test match outside these three series (The Ashes, Border-Gavaskar, and the Trans-Tasman Trophy). I only see the highlights of the other test series. I think the test series should be kept considering the ranking. Now if we have to watch Australia vs Bangladesh or Afghanistan's test series it will not be pleasant for me. Because Bangladesh or Afghanistan will lose against Australia by an innings. If the Test series is kept according to the ranking, then the match will be more interesting

Ideally Australia vs Bangladesh, or India vs Sri Lanka should not be scheduled very frequently. Because if we divide the 12 test nations in to two divisions, then teams such as Australia and India will be in the top division, and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka.etc will be in the lower division. But the ICC has refused to do that, probably under pressure from the smaller boards. And as a result we have one-sided test matches most of the time.
3200  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: October 19, 2020, 03:28:29 AM
Both teams played well. I didn't think the match would go for super over. I thought KXIP could easily win the match. If they had played a little better in the last over, they could have won the match without super over. But the match was really exciting. i think it is the most exciting match in this IPL.
KXIP have won 2 match in a row. They have won just 3 of 9 matches. Do you think they can play in the playoff?

KXIP may have won two matches in a row, but their vulnerabilities remain as such. The middle-order is not performing for some time now, with Maxwell struggling to get in to double digits. Their top order is scoring the runs at a brisk pace, so no one is noticing their middle order woes. Also, if you look at the bowling, they seems to be very dependent on Shami and Jordan. The younger bowlers such as Arshdeep Singh and Murugan Ashwin are not consistent.
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