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321  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: February 15, 2014, 09:47:02 PM
It's basic economics guys, the rate is dictated by the market. It will always find it's level where it is both low enough for traders and high enough for lenders. That level will constantly be shifting.

The flash return rate option is anything but market, and how much money is currently at the flash return rate?  If it's a lot, then that means the interest rate is determined by the few who lend / borrow at fixed rate.  Here are my proposals once again for changing flash return rate option.

Treat it like a market order, it'll hit everything on the "liquidity request" until there's nothing left with unfilled amount returned.
Completely cancel that option, one must lend at at fixed rate (my preferred approach).
A limited version of above, flash return rate is only available as long as it compose less than 10% of the lending market. (you want 90% turn out rate in the 'vote' for interest rate)
Re-do the FRR calculation, instead of calculating base on all fixed rate loan, the top 10% and the bottom 10% of fixed rate loans are ignored for calculation purposes to avoid manipulation, and borrower at FRR needs to pay some markup base on BTC / USD volatility and lending duration.
322  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: February 15, 2014, 09:00:14 PM
Just don't lend for long periods. Your offers will be taken anyway and you can adjust rates better. Much better than scamflash rate Wink

Explanatory screenshots (currently lending in btc, but same situation with usd usually, personal experience):





I once again advocate for removing the flash return rate option, it is the main driver for depressed lending rate, and used for manipulation, this is not good for bitfinex itself (which I wrote about before).  High lending rate both drives fees from the lending itself and trading, you can't hold a position at 100%.  With lending rate below 30%, it's not enough to compensate the risk for lenders.
323  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MUST WATCH: Account Holder Flies To Japan And Confronts MtGox CEO on: February 15, 2014, 04:07:24 AM
I wonder can you start suing them.
324  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ego Pay just got shut down by the US Gov't...Go Bitcoin!! on: February 14, 2014, 05:46:59 PM
egopay is just another okpay.
325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dont fall for Marks strategy. Read b4 making any trade decision. on: February 14, 2014, 06:00:59 AM
Interesting. Is there any exchange that hasn't suspended withdrawals?
Kraken. Super tiny volume, but it works.

what's the situation at btc-e?
326  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / 796 怎麼一回事? BTC 過 1000 USD on: February 11, 2014, 11:31:18 PM
796 怎麼一回事? BTC 過 1000 USD
327  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading on: February 11, 2014, 06:03:12 PM
bitstamp blocked withdraw.  Not sure if bitfinex withdraw first from their own stash or from bitstamp.
328  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: BTC-e Flash Crash 10/02/14 on: February 10, 2014, 09:21:32 PM
BTC-e has been prone to flash crashes.  Their depth on the bid side's rather low, would not be a smart move to do a large market order.
329  Economy / Speculation / Re: POLL: MtGox's Monday announcement on: February 10, 2014, 04:43:37 PM
mtgox just never cease to give us negative surprises.
330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt Gox RallY? Seriously. Well ok. on: February 10, 2014, 03:42:26 PM
Given their issue, it's almost a certainty that the amount of BTC they owe their customer is more than the BTC they have.  However, now that they engineer the plunge, have they bought enough BTC to cover the shortfall?

I can see how some frustrated with USD withdraw will take a chance and buy BTC, with the discount relative to other exchanges.  If they ever resume BTC withdrawal, do we see a plunge in BTC value on stamp and elsewhere?
331  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt.Gox SCAM? $38million disappeared. Large sums affected. on: February 07, 2014, 06:53:34 PM
for the advancement of bitcoin, mtgox need to fold
332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crashing Bitcoin on: February 07, 2014, 08:34:11 AM
btc-e refusal to budge kind of stabilize things a bit.
333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox crash! on: February 07, 2014, 07:41:25 AM
I think it's quite obvious that gox leads this gox and gox has been pretty much acting as a cap on BTC price.  Except the Chinese are not listening!
334  Economy / Speculation / Re: MASSIVE options order on apex.co on: February 07, 2014, 04:05:41 AM
Are those puts on the price?

That is someone selling puts to the MPEX bot.  They are going short 25,000 PUT contracts that are deep in the money. Note, that the contract is for the price of 0.1BTC.  So they are shorting puts with at strike price from $4100 - $5000 / BTC

About an $8,000,000 notional value on those contracts now.  Looks like a pretty smart play actually.  Current BTC price is $847.  It is extremely expensive to purchase calls or puts on MPEx due to the huge volatility premium.  But you can sell to the market maker for more reasonable mark up if you have additional backing capital deposited to cover the short risk.

Let's run the numbers :
If expiry happened today, simplifying calculations as if all contracts were P500Ts...
 (5000-847)/847*.1BTC = .490 price, or break even. 

But expiry in end of month, so by then,
If BTC drops to $700, (5000-700)/700*.1BTC = .614, or about a 25,000*(.49-.614) = 3100BTC loss
If BTC rises to $1000, (5000-1000)/1000*.1 = .4, or 25,000*(.49-.4) = 2250BTC gain

Love or hate MPEX, it is the only place in the world that has proven it can handle this sort of exposure. In fact, this is a pretty small position in BTC terms compared to what people were throwing around in march 2013.  I believe they paid out 19,407 BTC that month to people that bought calls, of which 15,000BTC was personally covered by Mr. Popescu, which appears to have wiped out all of the profits he made from the first 2 years of operations of MPEx.

He's deep under the water right now.
335  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: BTC China BTC 充值刷新很慢 on: February 07, 2014, 04:03:32 AM
不是 mt gox, 不過也沒有關係, blockchain 有多個確認就該沒問題

還說一個確認
336  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / Re: BTC China BTC 充值刷新很慢 on: February 07, 2014, 03:43:43 AM
laji 平台
337  Local / 中文 (Chinese) / BTC China BTC 充值刷新很慢 on: February 07, 2014, 03:18:42 AM
BTC 充值已經七個確認!

账户可用余额還是
฿0.00 BTC


找客服就只有廢話, 說耐心等候!
338  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: February 07, 2014, 02:40:52 AM
Not enough to stamp the tide.  Until people realize gox is completely irrelevant, they'll serve as a cap on the prices.
339  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price hits $10,000 on bitfinex on: February 06, 2014, 05:50:01 AM
well, you've a ask of $500 as well, looks like a technical glitch.  The loan book looks somewhat stable.
340  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Mt.Gox SCAM? $38million disappeared. Large sums affected. on: February 06, 2014, 05:45:04 AM
BTC vs USD exchange rates are currently on a free-fall..... So something serious is going on...

gox had been acting as a hard cap on prices on all other exchanges, I suppose when people realize that it is not possible to withdraw btc from gox, they'll completely ignore their trades.
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