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3341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 03:46:35 PM
/\12OO:::HERE WE GOOOOO//^BITCOIN TAKE US HIGHERRRR!!!;-)
//^$$$LOVE YOU GUYS!$$$^\\


This is the 5th account you have registered in the last month. Why do you need so many accounts?
Pure spam fever... ? Huh
3342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 11:49:46 AM
There's a chance some of us here are the ones who really manipulate the market. Chances are we'll never know without one being really honest (or plain fool) just to let us know. As per crashing the market; I find it idiotic and rather inequitable to it's main purpose and concept.

We must understand that it's a 2-way game - either a new economy, or a total bust of the inflated money out there. In either case, it's a win-win situation for the people behind its orchestration, or the banks who might just paid some experts to "invent" it.

Check each other's point of view and don't trust anyone. Usually, the devil is in the details. Roll Eyes
3343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 09:50:34 AM

Edit: I think I can speculate on the answer. With dt limiting to zero you get a maximum for the raise, decreasing to a minimum possible raise for a 60min dt period.

In other words it's not possible to establish a single value for Mr. Magoo's raise, just a function dependent on the number of bets he placed.

Or, perhaps the constant bets size permits you to establish the period...

Damn, now I'm going to have to do this properly when I get some pen and paper. Nerdsniped.
Attaboy!!! That's the spirit! Grin
BTW: rpietila must be buying!  Grin Grin Grin
3344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 09:12:42 AM
Looks fun... I'm assuming the rate of loss is all that matters here, not the bets size. So we get a differential equation for the rate of loss related to the amount of cash...

dC/dt = -qC where q is some constant.

Integrating we get delta t = -(ln(Cend)-ln(Cstart))/q

Solving q for 2hrs, 2 = (ln(180)-ln(135))/q

q = 0.14384103622

Now 3h,

3 = (ln(Craise)-ln (135))/.14384

Craise = 207.845

207.845 - 180 = $27.845

Was I even close?  Grin

I'd try with 3 Dt's
- one for 15m period
- one for 30m period
- one for 60m period

Then I'd solve the same equation and see what happens... Wink
What do you think it means?
Is it linear?
3345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 08:09:54 AM

Now THIS is some interesting analysis.  So much more satisfying that people drawing red and blue trend lines on a chart.  Can you explain exactly what is plotted on that graph you posted back there?  I'm guessing Z is price and one of the axes is time?  What is the other?  Why does it look like there are two different data sets being graphed (smooth vs noisy)?

Enjoy Wink
http://www.pnas.org/content/suppl/2007/04/23/0702871104.DC1
3346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 08:01:18 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Wink

Nicely done.  Is that Mathematica?

Most possibly yes. It refers to Free-Surface Synthetic Schlieren (FS-SS) an optical method developed for the measurement of the instantaneous topography of the interface between two transparent fluids (search in google for: Bubbles and Spikes in the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability). A great article can be found here:http://www.fast.u-psud.fr/~moisy/sgbos/tutorial.php
Oh one last thing:

(looks familiar doesn't it?...)
You'll be amazed how many things econo-metrics and fluid mechanics have in common. Grin
3347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 07:33:41 AM
i have to agree, ive noticed this ones as well, really nice observations there
Thanks! Sometimes it "pays" to be a physicist. Wink
3348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 07:11:18 AM
You guys are great-- you make really good points. I'm glad to be here, and I'm always learning something new. Maybe this is just another consolidating pennant, with a new floor and solid bids lined up?  Smiley
Yep; it could be. But if you look here http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd and notice the 15m chart you may be able to observe the most common thing I've noticed the Bitcoin does; it's called "wave turbulence pattern" or "surfwake".

The thing is; it usually recovers *very* fast after such a turbulence due to the huge buying demand. Then again a big player decides to sell and goes on and on, causing -somewhat- harmonic oscillations. Again; this is only what I have observed. I don't claim it's 100% true.. Smiley
3349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 06:51:54 AM
If the rally continues on, then the level where it bounced off the ema (840) is the new FLOOR when it actually crashes.

This is important. I would agree.
Yep, +1...
3350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 06:37:59 AM
Good morning people. I thought we were heading higher within the weekend; I'm glad that I was wrong and this correction came through though. I find it "healthier" than the exponential continuance to an infinite "top" (a Gauss Bell Curve always comes down as steep as it goes up). I seriously believe that it will start growing higher until the end of the week. Slower; but healthier than before...

...at least I hope so; but since the very beginning, I'm full BTC and holding anyway Wink

3351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 07:31:40 PM

I personally follow and post here the 5 rules of success for you:
1. Don't get emotional from other's people thoughts.
2. Not everyone here is a "nice person" you can trust.
3. IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO, DON'T TRADE.
4. HOLD!!!
5. Until you desperately need the money follow rule #4.

Good Luck!
3352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 07:24:36 PM
Shite this goes fast.  Look at chart, ponder buying, put in buy order without finalizing, look at chart again to double check.   Price is already $100 higher  Undecided .
This things are not for everyone... Only some are "lucky enough"... Wink
3353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 07:16:10 PM
Well we're seeing some action.  Anybody panic sold yet?
The other way buddy... the other way... Wink
3354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 07:11:20 PM
WOOT!!! CHEAP COINS!!!!!!!!!!!
3355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 05:52:16 PM
This was a great tripple bottom!

and their mother in front on black!!! Grin
3356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 02:31:20 PM
Real supporters take loans and slam-dunk buy at $1337
Indeed... cause $1337 ~ 1000 Euros (1euro = $1.35926 to be precise)
3357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 12:37:19 PM
Spoiler warning... Legit TA follows:
Double Bottoms @ $1100 fellas...
Let's watch the bull rally now!!!!!

3358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 09:45:23 AM
I'd actually like to know how many writers that published positive BTC news articles actually own BTC and neglect full disclosure. Curious if that would violate some laws due to conflict of interest. You know things might shift when you get the media doing the pumping for ya.
what about the ones that have bank accounts and promote banks and have money in tax havens.  Oh and also most banks are in a tax have, it's the Square mile called the city of london corporation, that's not even london it's a completely different thing, has different laws and so that's why all the banks are HQ'd there.
+1 Grin
3359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 09:08:33 AM

Not sure how valid it is, but if it's true it sounds orchestrated.

It's true that there were some very large donors. But my guess is it went like this: Some whales quickly realized that they could buy huge publicity for bitcoin by sending large amounts to this kid. I do not believe the kid himself was involved in any orchestration.
Nah I don't think he is either, I just mean someone with some money to spare saw an opportunity to manipulate the media and they capitalized. Not exactly ethical, and if the media does any research (I know, laughable), they might reveal the news as such. That'd play into their "pump & dump" rhetoric quite nicely.
Ethical; VERY overpriced word really. What is ethical? Any ethics is "stored" within one's pants IMHO. Is media ethical? Is the human community ethical? Are you or me? Ethics is scarce these days (and from what I can recall, we haven't seen some pure ethical people since the golden age of Pericles).

On the matter now: Any publicity is a good one. So pros for whoever orchestrated this. Wink
3360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 01, 2013, 09:00:23 AM
It is possible that we are entering in the same kind of phase now, but if that happens, everybody is just so rich anyway that I rather hedge my bets and do comfortably in both scenarios.

This is entirely reasonable. I've spent many years trying to beat the traditional markets and diversification is not lost on me.

Besides, if you can guarantee financial security without significantly diluting your position, that is always the correct decision.

Now there should be selling, because the price is objectively high, but many delay the selling until bubble has popped, steepening the decline.

I disagree with this. By no means is the price "objectively high", especially if we're using early 2013 data. The run-up started at ~$15 in January, and the bubble terminated around ~$130 in March. This most recent movement started around ~$140 and we are now around ~$1160.

On a comparative basis that makes $1160 seem fair, if not a little on the low side.

It's true that the timescale is compressed as compared to January-March, but the newscycle is compressed also.

My wild speculation is that we're going to camp out somewhere near this price into early 2014, and then we'll have another wild ride around February.

+1
My guess is we're gonna have a new ATH later today (before the weekend is over). Let's see.
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