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3381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market sentiments ? on: February 04, 2022, 05:28:59 AM
Its a continual loop to irritate you or perhaps just a reflection of every day the earth turns and each trading sphere is roughly 4 hours in its dominance before the baton is passed to the next big city set of traders to decide the price and local supply and demand.   I dont believe the whole world is trading equally all at once, its something of a tug of war back and forth.
  There are trends which last but they are surely tested before enduring.
3382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to buy? on: February 03, 2022, 11:52:43 PM
Its just rejected the possible move upwards, at least be cautious at this time.    Wait for price action to move above the weekly average seems best.



Not breaking the fall all the way from the top is really quite bearish.  Further out I do see BTC rising but theres no point trying to guess where that is until it shows the ability to pick itself off the floor and just now its tripped over again.   38.5k is about the point to watch, come back and see if it can hold this as a low in a 4hr bar; till then presume failure I guess.
3383  Economy / Speculation / Re: Goldman Sachs projection regarding BTC on: February 02, 2022, 11:39:33 PM
The only time when a rate hike would cause a massive sudden market move is if it was unexpected and happened suddenly. However this won’t be the case.

The genuine pressure to pricing in any market would be when interest rates exceed inflation.   At present and for many years rates have lagged behind which means currency is predictably weaker every month every year for quite some time.   This is by design as it relieves pressure on government spending and budgets which are also in deficit continually, it means BTC has little pressure on it also from a Dollar exchange rate.   BTC is growing in usage but has less available in circulation then that growth where as Dollar generally allows for more dollars to circulate then actual genuine growth is occuring in economies however it is used worldwide so has a great standing to act loosely for some time.
3384  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 01:29:45 AM
Will Clemente gets it.

Quote
Think there's a fair likelihood that the Fed has been raising monetary tightening expectations so that markets can rally on "less hawkishness" even though the Fed is still marginally raising rates.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1488647456573296640

Thats not even really a theory, its exactly what they are doing herding sheep.   The sheepdog never attacks just threatens in its posture and the flock moves towards the position wanted.   The base line is they cannot raise rates properly to be above inflation, reason being there is far too much debt issued and ongoing deficits.  Keynes own theory was a surplus must be run also, this never happens.

  The QE all needs to be reversed but it never can be, I think Ben Bernanke already said as much; this is permanent dilution and loss to all Dollar holders.   Its a travesty of capitalism and yet I hear people complain we have pure capitalism and poverty exists purely through the greed of the rich; I suddenly understand better how Venezuela (or similar) became enticed into its current situation while sitting on the worlds largest oil reserves.
3385  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [BOXING] Logan Paul vs Mike Tyson on: February 02, 2022, 12:04:29 AM
Tyson probably hasn't got so much money he doesn't need to collect the prize fee for this but there is the question of good management and as ex world champion respected probably forever in his achievements, does it really do him good overall to take this fight.   He has alternate prospects more attractive then a play fight.   There is also the lucky punch aspect which I dont think happens but there's the chance he ends up looking worse off from a wild lucky punch plus training for a fight is a massive deal to put your body through so I  don't blame him for skipping if not fully motivated.
3386  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for Feb on: February 01, 2022, 10:31:33 PM
Feb is a positive month from what I can see so far.    Its been moving nicely for many days now and doing so in a consistent way seems to indicate a reasonably strong move.   I wont say new highs or a greater price target but it would seem Feb is positive as a fair prospect.
   If this trend of gains breaks then perhaps be on guard but its done well so far, perhaps a large regular buyer was taking advantage I dont know the reasons just the chart reflects a continued rise :
3387  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin? on: February 01, 2022, 10:28:56 PM
BTC continues to move rapidly, at present after achieving a low ever since it seems to have a strong trend upwards and as always BTC is far more rapid moving then most assets.   Price tends to spike into periods of positive action and sometimes the opposite but overall its clear that BTC vastly outperforms most normal markets in the range of its gains, this comes with much volatility so beware of relying on regular returns.
3388  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: February 01, 2022, 01:14:18 AM
I noticed Icelandic CSGO matches listed as game valid for bets.  A nation of 300k has its own section of bettable games, awesome but pretty surprising.   They did beat England in the football Euro (wonder what the odds were) so maybe they are sports gods and I didnt realise.

Anyway I dont see many games right now that I recognise, I put down a multi for Dig and Copaghan Flames since they were pretty top class last time I saw them.   It would be better to add during the game possibly, live bets can be better odds depending how it goes.
3389  Economy / Services / Re: Looking for ways to monetize my crypto traffic on: February 01, 2022, 01:07:49 AM
Affiliate links and referrals to other crypto sites would probably earn a decent amount so long as people are clicking on them.  Crypto adverts are not welcome everywhere so your particular demographic is valuable in that sense.   Obviously gambling is a big deal so definitely you want to advertise all those sites if at all possible.

You can possibly increase traffic to your site by streamlining access to be as easy as possible for regular vistors.
3390  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is $30k the bottom for this dip? on: January 31, 2022, 05:06:47 PM
33k was a week ago and if we talking a trading prospect then its not to be viewed negatively right now.   We all know how much BTC can move, do not stand in the way even if you have your doubts how far or how strong the rise could go it also might already have put in the lows and its really hard to say otherwise.
If we close below 34.7k on 4hr bar then that would seem to invalidate this proposition.

It didnt do that, it has to be recognized as trending up.  There's for sure battles ahead of it but also dont ignore the positivity in the pricing that has been clear & present right now for quite a few days consistently.

Its just breaking past or attempting to break the downtrend seems like.    If it fails to do so then yep be cautious how far it can withdraw as bulls are disappointed and close out.   The fact its made multiple attempts and not previously lost much in doing so makes me think something greater will occur.   
  Its been stuck in a range for a while is a fair take also.  I'll be more confident of positive momentum when we are negotiating 40k instead weaving back and forth here.   Lows are a weekly moving average price, we stall if we lose that is my general rule.
3391  Economy / Speculation / Re: Prediction: Low was $34K or will be ~$25K on: January 31, 2022, 04:53:28 PM
Anyone who wants to buy long term should already have been buying at these prices in the 30's.  It doesnt matter so much if we do go into the 20's, it would be good to keep open the option to buy there also but the price isnt dictating success or really doing much more then altering sentiment and some profits or losses for speculators who will always sell no matter what anyway.   
   Theres a good chance we have seen the low for the year however I'd tend to agree we seem like it will take a few months before BTC seriously shakes off the gloom and clouds overhead; it will accumulate.   Overall I dont think anyone whose aware how low BTC was previously (its not ancient history) that trading here remains a positive longer term, boring for the hype traders but also required work and volume to install some stability in price action.
   I never thought 100k would be good before performing repairs to the base of price action like we are, it is a good thing in the end imo.
3392  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 02:06:41 AM
Most notable thing from Brandt there is the chart drawn with channel down which is not close to being broken.  So he is quite bearish for the moment.   I thought we were in the region of breaking the downtrend but not that surprised it wont be so easily done.

SWIFT exclusion would equate to the beginning of a world war is something I've heard a few times.  Might sound like exaggeration but either way its not likely done without consideration to escalation.  I'm not sure it happens even with an invasion, other measures are more passive.   Russia and China have been wanting an alternative to Dollar standard for years anyway, they are net buyers of gold for over a decade and China became the largest producer also;  I dont see crypto in their intended plan.   China making up some digital centralized ledger isn't crypto
3393  Economy / Speculation / Re: Good time to buy? on: January 30, 2022, 11:57:25 PM
Yes be optimistic right now imo its easily possible we can see a rise so long as we break the downtrend from here.  I will post the chart so hopefully its with some clarity its possible to see a trend of rising lows on the daily bars.   As always price wavers and confuses observers as we wane back and forth, this is normal but a pattern notable and sustained is worth taking into account.    As always set out a bullish scenario and also the point at which it is no longer valid, my hope is we break upwards to reverse selling all the way back to the ATH


3394  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is recovering on: January 30, 2022, 09:37:35 PM
Still in decline below a downtrend I think, its hopeful but not yet positive acting imo



We are above the weekly average so with momentum but the price action is being squeezed between these two trends and we'll have to wait for main markets decide during the week I think.
3395  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: On which esports you place bets on: January 30, 2022, 05:08:15 AM
The original Counterstrike was twenty years ago, this is the latest version we are talking about been big time since 2015-.  Its got about a regular 1 million players, hasnt really declined in the last couple years and very long term established teams and leagues.    They really should make a new version again but its not suffering anyway, the structure to the game probably makes it ideal for betting I think.
     Some of these other games are bit too wild in all the options you can do Valorant is nuts to me and its more reactionary then strategy is my guess which I equate to randomness.    CS you literally have to do one single thing to win and every round is about a minute or so which means live betting works with it in a known pace of play.     Any game can work in theory, I just guess a structured game helps betting tbh especially with obvious win / loss conditions & timing.   Even some mainstream bet firms cover CS I think
3396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2022, 12:33:11 AM

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.


I remember that guy. It was not a 'childhood home' for him. He was so dubious sounding about it all, I wouldn't be surprised if he sold. I haven't looked it up.

Unfortunately his thread got locked and it was still being updated by the OP.   We should probably have something besides plain lock, limited access by the people who originally posted on the first page or similar.  I'd like his update if he was still around but I dont have that one bookmarked to know if he is active, I'm fairly sure Im right in remembering he would occasionally come back and say he had continued to hold and it was a 2nd house left in a will yep.
  It was in a newspaper at the time right, maybe a reporter will chase it up.  They always mention the person who buried his old hard disk, literally every rally that dude pops up.


BTC is about upto a downtrend for the last month or so, the pattern of lower highs since the ATH.  If we can maintain 40k in the next week and confirm that as a low in some way then that trend of declining highs each week will be broken and I expect a proper rally to at least the 50 day average or 50 week near 50k ;  we've only really been having waves back and forth that resolve downwards again.
  50 week moving average is now pacing lower each week (slightly) but 200 day is still moving upwards, they do vary some I think because 200 day is more inclusive of weekend action.

[not to be the negative guy but at least some would have voted 40k had it been included on the poll, such is the gloom of negative sentiment]
3397  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Rewards when Bitcoin hits $1M on: January 29, 2022, 11:57:26 PM
Thanks for the reply and yes I do realise you can be in a pool but is seems its not very profitable unless you are using virtually free power. For a dedicated mining company the costs to mine at least one $1M Bitcoin every 10 minutes it would surely mean the cost to get that coin must also be approaching $1M. Presently it takes ~150,000 kWh to produce one bitcoin on average so as the value of the bitcoin increases the cost to produce it must also increase.

People assume power cost and production is linear and uniform when it is not.    We have to remove this assumption first, it is incredible but also true I think that power can be free at times in some parts of the world.    We havent cracked the problem of nuclear fusion just yet to achieve easy free power but phenomena such as geothermal power localised in some areas and other hard to transmit spikes in energy mean power can be far cheaper then simply burning gasoline.
   Energy is literally thrown away in some parts of the world, main reason this occurs is natural inefficiency.   Sometimes a business can thrive purely through increasing efficiency in some way that benefits society, its the basis of capitalism imo.   Transmitting power over great distances causes losses from resistance and cost to build that infrastructure, BTC can be a means to capture cheap energy use and propagate it usefully.   Its not quite the simple argument you might have been sold, alot of things are not simply absolute yes or no as we hear in the news unfortunately.
3398  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: On which esports you place bets on: January 29, 2022, 11:49:28 PM
I would say most people bet on whatever is their own greatest interest, its hard to judge teams and various changes if you are not actively involved and interested in the game.  So I'm totally biased to CSGO and I presume its the easiest to bet on, none of them are predictable exactly but CSGO probably gives me the best chance.  However I dont know all these games available to bet on so I could be incorrect and another esport is a better choice.
   Ideally you want alot of glory supporters who are easy to take money from with your more independent judgement I guess
3399  Economy / Economics / Re: Which business profit model do you prefer? on: January 29, 2022, 11:40:19 PM
Quote
Or the the sort that only attends to the rich, and the poor cannot afford it, that is your profit is from the rich alone and usually huge, and comes occasionally?

The answer to this should be simple, profits from the richest people is a more difficult model (long term).   The margins to top end products have to be far higher because of this risk, because of this cost to attending to a low population larger variance audience; in brief rich people arent always liquid in their finance to buy your product sometimes they are purely paying bills on their mansion etc.
   Always the case should be is that capitalism favors the application of the product to the largest possible audience and so eventually society as a whole benefits.   The greatest profits will come from economies of scale and allowing your product to be made as efficiently as possible and sold to as many people as possible.  Its almost always the case that revenue creates the greatest profits not selective high margin high end only.
3400  Economy / Speculation / Re: What make people panic sell? on: January 29, 2022, 11:33:15 PM
Panic sell relates to being too hot to handle so its dropped.  Its especially true on leverage but even normally a position wont be held if its thought to significantly move downwards from there.   Volatility and volume peak in turning points but in the moment it can be hard to identify from a price that will not return to that point for weeks or months later.
   It comes together with the dangers of having too many market traders involved, if Dollar is a funding currency from QE and other measures to create liquidity and support markets then it also becomes an unstoppable retraction in the price as dollars become scarcer and debts come to term and must be repaid elsewhere hence BTC is naturally sold as a non yielding speculative position.
  The opposite of panic sell is genuine usage and in a regular way, this true measure of BTC use is far lower and slower then the speculative highs which are froth and not subject to last.
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