Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

.....

EDIT: Anyone hear from Elwar? Noticed his LND channel with me has been down for some time now.

Judging from his past openness on this thread and bitcoin holdings,
I would venture to guess he's probably taking his opsec more seriously these days and would prefer a lower interwebz profile.
Can't say I blame him.
Just speculating mind you.

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[El duderino_]

Weekend ant
?

[fillippone]

Weekend ant
?

[Insert Stifler pump gif here]

[El duderino_]

Weekend ant
?

[Insert Stifler pump gif here]

Stifler deserting

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Weekend ant
?

[Insert Stifler pump gif here]

Stifler deserting

Seems like he's teasing her 

[ImThour]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1487531793804926981

[JayJuanGee]

arizona is the next el salvador

Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?

Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.

Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.

can you imagine all the future fuckwits like future CSW or future Roger yapping in their ears!.. "we're the real slim shady!" what a nightmare that would be!

Hahahaha

For sure, one funny aspect is that even some smart and resourceful people, institutions and/or governments are going to end up betting on the wrong side.. and it could be costly for some of them, and some might even be able to profit from betting on the wrong side - as we did had witnessed from some of the fall out from the various 2017/2018 hardforks.

I wish I could 'fuck around' with 29 Bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1487150299462647819

That idiot should have waited for that dip that is happening today or tomorrow, and then to have bought.    

Hahaha

Case in point.  Save the RF - (surely can relate to Portnoy in various ways, "for reasons") knows where the BTC price is going to go before it even goes there.  There's a lesson in here somewhere, no?

Well, even if you do not have 29 bitcoins currently, in about 6-12 years, it is quite likely that 0.29 BTC will have a similar feeling to what 29 bitcoin has today... of course, no guarantees.. and of course, if it takes as long as 12 years, each of us will be 12 years older too.. so it is not always easy to defer gratification for that long....    Plugging my fuck you status trajectory.

By the way, currently 29 BTC is about 1/3 of fuck you status... In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status.  In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. again no guarantees.. but good to attempt to prepare for these kinds of seeming eventualities, even if it seems to be taking quite a bit of time for some of the concepts of BTC to really sink in for a large number of folks.. so we are still quite early in bitcoin's journey and increasing influences in the world.

Another by the way, Portnoy has gotten pretty rich through various businesses that he has built in the past several years, but he has also screwed up with bitcoin several times already.  Whether he is starting to "get bitcoin" is still to be understood.  He seems to be unable to control his various gambling tendencies and to play around with an asset like bitcoin in terms of trading it, rather than treating it as a long play.., which likely shows that he still does not get it, and he will most likely cash out upon any kind of mediocre profits.. but hey, you never know, some of the smarter than everyone else gamblers, like Portnoy, are going to end up learning about the value of accumulate and HODL.. sooner or later.. sooner or later.. and, you AverageGlabella, have gotten convinced of bitcoin before some of these traditionally rich folks, including Portnoy... because he still does not seem to get it.

I concur I simply want to do something that would awaken individuals of the world since everybody whines about banks they then at that point remove their cash from the bank and conceal it in cash. I have heard individuals grumble about the interest rates of banks then they take out their money and put it into cash feeling that they are in an ideal situation yet they never fret about inflation and how inflation is keeping everybody including them poor.

For sure, bitcoin provides a already existing vehicle for self-sovereignty over your value, and it likely does not matter how much value that we are talking about because you are going to have the potential of realizing such self-sovereignty with your value (talking about BTC here) no matter the amount - even though the longer that you are in BTC, the more likely that you are going to be able to feel that kind of sovereignty increase... but yeah, it could take 4-10 years for some of the newer entrants to really feel it in a kind of meaningful and substantial way.

I don't care that much about your actual details, but you were talking about your own value in terms of putting enough of your total wealth into bitcoin that you have some initial senses of already feeling some greater empowerment from that - perhaps in terms of both future prospects but also in terms of not having to ask anyone for further permission.. to be able to use parts or all of your value, whether you do it in ways that are "good for you" or not.

Do you have any ideas how we can convince the population quicker that Bitcoin is the answer they have been looking for?

You have been registered on the forum for nearly as long as me, so you likely realize that there have been all kinds of discussions on this topic, and surely some persons involved in bitcoin have considered getting the word out there to be a good use of their time and energies.  So without intending to poo-poo the efforts of various bitcoin evangelists, there is still likely ONLY so much that any of us can do in terms of really increasing bitcoin's adoption rate.  

Gresham's law will ultimately prevail in terms of ongoingly getting the word out there regarding the various ways that bitcoin is superior to other forms of holding value.  Some people just intuitively know Gresham's law by dealing with trading off what ways are the better ways to store or to spend their value.  Of course, they know if their money is losing value within various short periods of time and NOT going to recover or stop in such loss of value that they have to spend those kinds of value first.  So, in that regard, some people do "get" bitcoin quickly, but sometimes bitcoin's own short-term volatility can cause some confusion and ambiguity regarding whether it is the better place to hold value - and there can also be some difficulties in terms of zooming out to see from where bitcoin has come and to misleadingly focus on the short-term.  For sure there are disingenuine folks, no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners and perhaps some other categories of persons who are emphasizing negative aspects about bitcoin, including short term price performance or even some misleading framings such as measuring from tops to assert that bitcoin is underperforming - and for sure many of us who have been in bitcoin longer will not be mislead by such misinformation, but it is not always true that longer term HODLers can also get shook from there coins.

In some sense, it is fair enough to say that current nocoiners (or should we label them as precoiners) will get into bitcoin when they are ready, and there is ONLY so much that any of us can do to attempt to expedite their taking actions to protect/empower themselves.  I frequently consider that merely describing easy ways that precoiners might be able to get into bitcoin might be helpful to assist them in easing into bitcoin, yet we know for sure that it can take a while to transition into a mindset that is ready for active bitcoin investment - rather than either sitting on the sidelines or completely doing nothing.

I am not going to proclaim that I really have any answers because even though in my real life circles, a lot of folks know me as the bitcoin person, there are really small portions of them who attempt even some mediocre attempts to follow some variation of what I have been saying for many years, yet surely there are some who have sometimes taken some small actions (sometimes got involved in shitcoins too) that cause me to believe that maybe I have had some possible positive effects upon their considering some advantages towards establishing some kind of a bitcoin allocation that is comfortable for them.. and even perhaps some level of aggressiveness (no one really goes aggressively in a way that I would consider long term and not gambling).. but anyhow, $100 per week of DCA rather than $10 per week could be considered somewhat more aggressive, and also aiming to put something higher than 10% of wealth into bitcoin (even up to 25%) could be aggressive, even though 1% or 2% could also be reasonable (even though less aggressive).

The receptivity of people towards bitcoin is going to vary, and surely it seems to me that there are quite a few guys in this thread who don't really mind spreading pro-bitcoin ideas in their real life, but there are also several of us who have various reservations to be spinning our wheels with people who are not even close to ready to actually take some action, even if the action might be relatively whimpy in the scheme of things - but each person has to take the level of action that is comfortable for them - and by the way, so many people have troubles tempering their own level of moderation and/or incrementalism - and so many people have tendencies to gamble (even if they claim that they are not gambling), so they might start out with some whimpy allocation into bitcoin because they are hesitant and nervous about it and then all of a sudden they throw in all of their cashflow.. and the price goes down and they want to sell and they end up feeling even more disgruntled about bitcoin than they did when they initially got in coupled with their initial hesitancies to get into bitcoin in the first place.. and then confirmed negativities about bitcoin because they have difficulties in the actual employment of moderation and letting the whole matter play out within the boundaries of moderation.

There is almost no way to save people from themselves.. so to some extent they have to learn on their own, and sure we can attempt to be a resource for them, but still I frequently have to tell bitcoin newbies that they are responsible for their own choices about whether to invest into bitcoin, how much and their employment of various strategies to engage in BTC accumulation and later maintenance (presuming they can even get through BTC accumulation stages without fucking things up).

By the way, one good thing about this forum (and perhaps largely this thread - even though from time to time some other good threads do get created), we have participants who are largely attempting to engage and grapple with the bitcoin topic - even if they are at various levels of financial/psychological preparedness. ... and with the passage of time, they establish varying stages in which they might be in accumulation stage for a while and then get to maintenance and liquidation stages.. and hopefully the whole process plays out well for them, even though several of us in this forum/thread are receptive to bitcoin, we do have varying ways of managing our BTC investment approach to build a BTC portfolio (hopefully) and attempt to learn to manage it better whether we are going through accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stages.

[sirazimuth]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?


 front

 back



GO BITCOIN

[OutOfMemory]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?

I see three things:

1. The upper dash (serif) on the left side of the BTC should be outdent, like the lower one.
2. The PREMIER looks different to the other R's
3. The bow of the upper B-cutout (with the 101's inside) is not looking seamless (unlike the top one)

[El duderino_]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?


  front

  back



GO BITCOIN

The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ??

Very nice piece though

[cAPSLOCK]

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1487509038665502720
Thank god it didn't said above $100k because that's just like me predicting it to go $19000. 

Oh GOD.  Are we ALREADY starting back up with the damn EOY predictions again?  Is less than ONE MONTH long enough to forget all our lessons learned?!?!? lol.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Farmer Bill]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1487531793804926981

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

[ImThour]

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1487531793804926981

Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more.
At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy.

That’s unbelievable. I wonder if he sold some to buy the house back or still homeless with HODLing

[JayJuanGee]

Some peoples situation

It's too vague and ambiguous to have any meaning for this here cat.

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1487509038665502720
Thank god it didn't said above $100k because that's just like me predicting it to go $19000. 

Nope..

Not the same.

As you know, right now, $19k is a bit below the 200-week moving average, and even you had asserted a bit of impracticality for the BTC price to go straight down to such a point, so in some sense if we were to want to attempt some semblance of reasonable probabilities, by the time the BTC price were to get to $19k (if it were to get there), the 200-week moving average would then be at something like $24k or perhaps even above $24k at such a projected time.  In other words, getting to $19k would be around 20% below the 200 week moving average, which seems quite unlikely - especially since we have far from resolved whether we are even in a bear market - and the other extreme of relying on some kind of a blackswan event in order to get to your projected objective would be far from reasonable.

Getting to $100k within this calendar year, on the other hand, is far from unreasonable, and quite reachable without even too much effort.  Of course, I am not suggesting that $100k is in anyway guaranteed, but it is way more reachable than $19k... .. Now, if you are striving to consider $19k and $100k to be equally unreasonable, then you should easily be ready, willing and able to enter into a bet that is structured around such parameters.. such as which one is reachable first,... or maybe somehow limiting such framing of the bet to this calendar year

You going to run away again whenever it comes to having to actually back up your assertions rather than just randomly throwing out one nonsense assertion followed by another followed by another?  Starting to become your specialty, no?  the persistent random nonsense asserter.

[AlcoHoDL]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?

[...]

GO BITCOIN

The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ??

Very nice piece though

I've highlighted it in the photo below -- I guess that's what you're talking about. That's the only thing I can spot too, by quickly looking at the photo. I wouldn't call this OCD, as it's too easy to spot. Unless sirazimuth means something else...

Nice piece sirazimuth.

[Copetech]

Here's a little puzzle for all you OCD folks out there.
There is a subtle error on this piece. (hint....front)
It's a sold chunk of polished steel with a circle pocket milled to house a 1oz silver coin in a capsule, with side set screw to captivate.
Signed on the back.
After noticing it myself, I analyzed the Mastercam cut file, and there it was. Stupid effing me.
Can anyone guess what it is?
Come to think of it, maybe this error will make it copy proof (unless you have access to cut file and know the error.... within a micron, lol)
Then again, who dafuk would wanna copy it anyway?


  front

  back



GO BITCOIN

The FAT 1 looking thing on the upper left under the arm of the BTC logo ??

Very nice piece though

Yea, that 0 is looking pretty fugged... but I thought he was talking about the display case rather than the coin itself. In which case I would point to the appearance of a chip in the middle of the front edge.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.

Are those your actual DCA Buyings or some sort of analysis like If we would have bought at 208 week MA?

You seem to NOT understand the chart.

Let me attempt to reiterate aspects of what the chart is attempting to show.

If we presume $2 million as entry-level fuck you status and we use the 208-week moving average as our measuring point for assessing the value of our BTC, then we can see that in mid-2014, it would have taken 13,223 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.

Currently, it takes just a bit more than 100 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status, and you can see from the chart that historically the 208-week moving average has been moving up approximately 75% per year, so if we keep that trajectory of the 208-week moving average into the future3, then the number of coins that you need for entry-level fuck you status will get lower and lower.. so in 4 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 8.7 BTC, and in 8 years, the number of coins for entry-level fuck you status would be a bit more than 0.68 BTC.

I have already acknowledged that maybe it is too presumptuous to maintain 75% per year as the 208-week moving average, so that rate might need to come down, and also it is likely to be the case that in 8 years, $2 million might not be enough for the entrance into fuck you status.  At some point, I will make some adjustments to the charts - but there are ONLY so many hours in the day, so in that particular chart, you see how I outlined the matter as of December 28.

By the way, your questions are a bit nonsensical because the chart clearly does not show my buyings, and I do not fuck around with trying to time the buying of BTC at bottoms, such as the 208-week moving average.,. but I do find that the 208-week moving average to be a pretty decent way of considering how to value your BTC holdings.. and possible extreme BTC price bottoms that might come.  Surely in BTC we have seen historically that the BTC price tends to remain way above the 208-week moving average, so I don't consider much value for people to be waiting to get into BTC out of hopes that the BTC spot price goes down to thew 208-week moving average.. DCA'ing remains a much better strategy in my opinion.. and sure once you achieve decent BTC accumulation levels, then will likely have more options regarding how to consider your BTC holdings in terms of acquiring more BTC, maintaining your holdings or even shaving off some profits once you might consider yourself in a kind of liquidation stage.. but of course, getting towards the achievement of BTC accumulation and maintenance
can take a while to achieve in terms of assessing your own individual financial/psychological circumstances too.

.....

EDIT: Anyone hear from Elwar? Noticed his LND channel with me has been down for some time now.

Judging from his past openness on this thread and bitcoin holdings,
I would venture to guess he's probably taking his opsec more seriously these days and would prefer a lower interwebz profile.
Can't say I blame him.
Just speculating mind you.

Elwar has not really been shy about those kinds of things... so I don't agree with your theory sirazimuth.. even though it is possible that Elwar is just busy in real life.. which does happen from time to time.