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3381  Economy / Economics / Re: Alternative investments on: March 15, 2018, 06:02:35 PM
It might be said that good investments are defined primarily in terms of growth or long term stability with appreciating value. The basic premise is investing in a position that will be worth more in the future than it is when opting in. This is a broad criteria which can be applied to a laundry list of areas with a very wide scope. Even assets losing value can be capitalized upon and profited from via short selling.

There are many economists and experts predicting doom and gloom in terms of global recession or economic slowdown. Are we in a boom or bust cycle? Is the market bullish or bearish at the moment? Which sectors or markets are likely to decline, which are likely to grow? The winds of change are always blowing and what is a good investment is anyones guess, I don't know that anyone has it down to an exact science.

Buying amazon while shorting retailers who amazon could put out of business could be a good play if amazon's acquisition of whole foods pans out. Recently amazon's offices in japan were raided as an investigation is being conducted. Investing and trading on insider information has no substitute. I've seen people do well daytrading with penny stocks on the stock market. Many altcoins are undervalued and prone towards pump and dump cycles as their trading volume makes them susceptible towards coordinated price movements. There are likely many good investments out there.
3382  Economy / Economics / Re: Stabilising the valuenof crypto. on: March 15, 2018, 09:37:12 AM
It is possible bitcoin will naturally stabilize on its own as time passes and the market behavior of crypto currencies becomes a more thoroughly investigated and quantified phenomena. Potentially positive aspects of bitcoin such as it being deflationary and having a limited supply in terms of only 21 million coins being issued could take months or years to fully kick in and affect its price. The best way to stabilize bitcoin and crypto could be mass adoption. Higher market caps and trading volume would go a long way towards reducing rampant speculation and coordinated market manipulation.

I think growing pains are an integral part of the learning process and of new and emerging technologies like crypto currencies. There is no fast forward button to accelerate knowledge or development on a project like bitcoin and if there were it could upset or stagnate the natural process which is necessary for new and emerging technologies to fully mature.
3383  Economy / Economics / Re: Shitcoins are necessary for the economy on: March 15, 2018, 09:11:30 AM
There are two quotations which come to mind here: "necessity is the mother of all invention" and "nature abhors a vacuum".

Unfortunately, the emergence of numerous ICOs and altcoins we've witnessed are bad for bitcoin and crypto brand name recognition. Long term HODL'ers don't want the store of value role bitcoin represents to be devalued or diluted by spamcoins which are often petty short term get rich quick schemes carrying a potential to diminish the credibility of both bitcoin and crypto currencies over the long term.

There is a question as to whether this phenomenon is random or fueled by necessity or an intrinsic need for a vacuum to be filled.

Altcoins and ICOs may provide best candidates for low network transaction fees as well as additional scaling bandwidth for transactions. Those two aspects may represent the best pros for the uptick ICO and altcoin introductions we've witnessed as well as the major area where they provide benefits for crypto and bitcoin in general.

This could also imply that if scaling issues and transaction fees relating to bitcoin and crypto are solved, we will see the tendency for ICOs and spamcoins to diminish as the necessity they provide and the vacuum they fill are gradually eliminated.
3384  Economy / Economics / Re: Japan to Call for Crypto Rules at the G20 Summit on: March 15, 2018, 07:31:59 AM
Not certain if this is positive or negative news. It could be either. Japan has been content to live under the directives of the united states in the past and mirrored much of US economic policy. At the same time, japan has shown a will to become more independent. They recently built "helicopter destroyers" which are disguised pocket aircraft carriers capable of deploying fixed wing aircraft. This goes somewhat against terms of japan's surrender during World War II which prohibited them from building aircraft carriers. Germany likewise was prohibited from building many types of warships after World War I, which goes to show how ineffective those types of surrender terms can be.

There is a chance japan will echo the sentiments of central bankers with their anti crypto stance.

But there is also a chance japan will announce rules which protect the long term value of bitcoin as part of their recent independent streak. Guidelines which call for a cessation of trading on crypto exchanges if bitcoin's price declines by a certain amount could be implemented. Capital gains taxes or fees which encourage long term HODL rather than short term speculative daytrading could also be standardized to encourage long term value in bitcoin.

No matter how things pan out, we will know the answer soon enough.
3385  Economy / Gambling discussion / Dash paid Rory MacDonald $250,000 Sponsorship Money for his Bellator 192 Fight on: March 14, 2018, 01:57:12 PM
Quote
Rory MacDonald received a lucrative payout for representing a leading cryptocurrency at Bellator 192.

When it comes to cryptocurrency, Dash is one of the rising alternative coins on the market.

Touted for its instant transaction times, anonymity and decentralized model, Dash, previously known as Dark Coin, has made its foray into the world of mixed martial arts.

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts may have noticed that former UFC welterweight title challenger Rory MacDonald, now the Bellator welterweight champion, was represented by Dash in his championship bout with Douglas Lima at Bellator 192.

MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee recently spoke with Dash’s head of network operations, Jeff Smith, who reached out to MacDonald and offered him a unique sponsorship deal for Bellator 192.

Smith, an avid mixed martial arts fan, explained Dash’s unconventional payment model and how MacDonald received $250,000 for representing the cryptocurrency at Bellator 192, which was more than Reebook’s total payout ($165,000) for all fighters on the UFC Austin Fight Night card last month.

“There’s actually a monthly proposal cycle, we call it our ‘treasury system,’ and so every month our treasury budget opens and closes and there’s an amount of Dash that we can use as sort of a positive feedback loop,” Smith explained to Alexander K. Lee. “So we’re using this Dash to reinvest into the ecosystem to do things that we as a network think will be better for Dash. Rory’s play was he had this opportunity to be on prime time TV and that’s something that we as a network wanted to do some advertising for, so he approached the network with the idea of, ‘Let’s get me all Dash’d up and I’m gonna be on TV and you guys can be a sponsor of mine
.’

“But it’s not like a board of directors or a company where there’s just one person that has the call and that’s the big difference here. Usually, for someone to spend $250,000 to sponsor a fighter, there would be some boardroom that made the decision and stamped it for approval; in this case it’s not, it’s approximately 4700 people all over the world voting yes or no on multiple proposals. Last month I think our cycle had 56 proposals, so there were 55 other people with ideas like Rory’s on how to better Dash.”

Due to the highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, the original $250,000 figure has fluctuated since MacDonald’s initial payout, but Smith says ‘The Red King’ and his team at Tristar are enthusiastic about the technology.

“A lot of the Tristar gym fighters have heard about this, like Georges St-Pierre and the boys that are around Rory and Firas (Zahabi), because Firas, Rory’s coach, kind of got this all started. So a lot of the Tristar gym fighters are starting to ask us questions and that was a question Scott Coker had for me too,” Smith said. “We were chatting after the fight and he just said, ‘You’re crazy. When these fighters find out how much money you gave Rory, your phone will not stop ringing,’ and the irony of it is that these fighters deserve it. Of all the people that deserve some payout like that, it’s the fighters.”

While MacDonald was the lone fighter representing Dash at Bellator 192, former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight title challenger Chael Sonnen has proposed that the Bellator cage, fighters and ring girls all be sponsored by Dash, or ‘Dash’d up’ as MacDonald put it.

Chael's spiel:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9hWPGnWmLg

Check out Lee’s full interview with Smith (and MacDonald) for more information about Dash’s potential collaboration with Bellator.

https://www.bloodyelbow.com/2018/3/12/17109028/ufc-bellator-mma-news-interview-cryptocurrency-dash-rory-macdonald-dash-bitcoin-reebok-fight

....

Interesting. I wasn't aware dash sponsored Rory MacDonald when he fought Douglas Lima for the bellator middleweight title. Awhile ago, Rory MacDonald's coach, Firas Zahabi, ran a "win $10,000 in Dash" contest for accurate predictions on what the end Conor vs floyd result would be.

I wonder if dash will continue to sponsor MMA fighters or work out a deal with Bellator. It seems as if they have a considerable amount of m̶o̶n̶e̶y̶ crypto to burn and accept monthly proposals on how it should be spent.
3386  Economy / Economics / Everything Surrounding The New AMD Security Allegations Reek of a Smear Job on: March 14, 2018, 01:52:43 PM
Quote
Earlier today, we covered news that a previously unknown security research firm, CTS-Labs, has accused AMD of 13 serious security flaws within its products. If these security flaws exist, it’s critically important AMD deal with them immediately. Nothing about their provenance or the process by which they were communicated to the press changes that. But we’d be remiss if we didn’t note the perplexing nature of how they were communicated. Security researchers are also raising the alarm regarding some highly suspicious disclosures and framing of the underlying issues.

With Spectre and Meltdown, an early disclosure spilled the beans about a week earlier than Intel, AMD, ARM, and Google had collectively planned. All of the companies in question had been aware of Spectre and Meltdown since June (meaning, for months) and had been working on fixes throughout that time. Google, in fact, had given the various hardware companies an extended deadline to get fixes ready before disclosing the existence of the bugs. That’s standard operating procedure in security disclosures; vendors are typically given at least a 90-day window to implement solutions. But in this case, AMD was notified a day ahead of the disclosure by an Israeli firm, CTS-Labs.

CTS-Labs has hired a PR firm to handle press inquiries and its website, AMDFlaws.com, doesn’t exactly follow typical disclosure methodology. In fact, the text of the site absolutely drips with scareism, with quotes like:



Image link: https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/AMD-Security-Lives.png

Under the section for “How long until a fix is available?” the site states:



Image link: https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/HowLongBeforeFix.png

If you want to know how long it’s going to take to fix a security flaw, you typically ask the company in question after telling them you’ve found one. This just isn’t how security researchers disclose product flaws. Compare the language above from Google’s own work on Meltdown and Spectre, where it details how the attacks work, links to actual, formal white papers that detail how these attacks work, and then goes into an in-depth breakdown of the attacks with code samples and examples.

CTS-Labs website and white paper completely lack this in-depth technical discussion, but the site is stuffed with pretty infographics and visual designs depicting which AMD products are affected by these issues. It’s exactly the kind of thing you might create if you were more interested in launching a PR blitz as opposed to a security notification.

AMD was given so little notice, it can’t even state if the attacks are valid or not. The company’s statement reads: “At AMD, security is a top priority and we are continually working to ensure the safety of our users as new risks arise. We are investigating this report, which we just received, to understand the methodology and merit of the findings.”

Good security firms don’t put users at risk by launching zero-day broadsides against companies when the security flaws in question could take months to resolve. Good security firms don’t engage in rampant scareism. Good security firms don’t use websites like “AMDFlaws” to communicate technical information, any more than they’d use “IntelSecuritySucks” to communicate security flaws related to Spectre, Meltdown, or the Intel Management Engine. Good security firms do not draw conclusions; they convey information and necessary context.

The reason good security firms don’t do these things is because good security firms are more concerned with finding and fixing problems than they are with publicity. When Embedi found recent flaws in the Intel Management Engine and F-Secure discovered problems within Intel’s Active Management Technology, they emphasized communicating the situation clearly and concisely (F-Secure’s blog post does have a touch of hyperbole, but doesn’t approach what CTS-Labs is doing here).

We aren’t the only site to notice. There’s a notification on CTS-Labs site that it may have a financial interest in the companies it investigates (shorting AMD stock is practically a pastime in financial circles). Other security researchers have absolutely trashed the manner in which the findings were communicated, the likely financial entanglements, and the way the brief has been communicated.

If these security flaws are real, AMD has a lot of work to do to fix them. It absolutely deserves criticism for failing to catch them in the first place, and there is at least one security researcher who has seen the code and believes the matter to be serious. But even if CTS-Labs findings are genuine, it has communicated them in a manner completely at odds with best practices in the security community. Its manner and method of communicating its findings have much more in common with a PR firm hired to do a hit job on a competitor or a company looking to make a financial killing by shorting stock than a reputable security firm interested in establishing a name for itself. Finding 13 major security flaws in a major microprocessor was guaranteed to make the news all on its own.

It’s entirely possible that CTS-Labs is a relatively new company comprised of researchers who decided to debut with a splash and sacrificed the best practices of security disclosures to do it. It’s also possible it isn’t. The company has done itself no favors with these shenanigans.

Update:

CTS-Labs has acknowledged to Reuters that it shares its research with companies that pay for the data and that it’s a firm with just six employees. Meanwhile, Viceroy Research, a short-seller firm, has published a 25-page “obituary” for AMD based on this data in which it declares AMD is worth $0.00 and believes no one should purchase AMD products on any basis, for any reason whatsoever. It also predicts AMD will be forced to file for bankruptcy on the basis of this “report.”

We stand by what we said regarding the flaws themselves — we’ll wait to hear from AMD on how that shakes out and what the risks are — but the actual reporting of the flaws appears to have been done in profound bad faith and with an eye towards enriching a very particular set of clients. ExtremeTech denounces, in the strongest possible terms, this scheme’s apparent perversion of the security flaw disclosure process.

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/265582-everything-surrounding-new-amd-security-allegations-reeks-hit-job

....

This is extremely interesting news from a centralization versus decentralization perspective.

Intel versus AMD is one of the best real world examples of how market decentralization benefits consumers, fuels innovation, drives prices down and forces businesses to offer fairer end user terms to the public. If AMD were eliminated from the equation, the CPU market would become centralized. Prices would increase. Innovation would cease.

It is possible that this latest news of false allegations regarding AMD processors having vulnerabilities is motivated by an intent to centralize the processsor market under intel. And also to wipe from the world examples of how decentralization and market competition provide benefits to the world.

Note: market centralization/decentralization may be defined as an economics topic & so I hope I posted this in the correct place.  Smiley
3387  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: "All in Challenge" start with $10 and make $1000 on sports bet on: March 14, 2018, 12:39:03 PM
All in good fun. I look forward to seeing your results.  Smiley The best I've ever managed in sports gambling is 16 times what I started with. I think at that point I grew overconfident got reckless and wound up losing most, if not all of my gains. It certainly is possible to turn $10 into $1,000. The compounding interest intrinsic to gambling has a powerful potential for multiplying wealth if it can be harnessed consistently.

Mathematically if a person started with $0.01 and won 31 straight bets with EV(even) odds, betting all of their winnings. They could theoretically turn $0.01 into more than $1 million dollars. The high growth and profiteering potential of gambling is not to be underestimated.
3388  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin Sinks As Google Moves To Ban All Crypto, ICO Ads In June on: March 14, 2018, 06:44:25 AM
Quote
Mimiccing its biggest rival for ad dollars - Facebook - Google will ban online advertisements promoting cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings, and "other speculative financial instruments" starting in June.

Some aggressive businesses found a loophole: purposely misspelling words like "bitcoin" in their ads. A Google spokeswoman said the company’s policies will try to anticipate workarounds like this.

The reaction was immediate across the crypto space but for now is somewhat subdued...



Link to image: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2018-03-13_21-07-07.jpg

Alphabet’s Google said the new policy will become effective in June across ads bought on its search and display-advertising network, as well as its YouTube unit.

But, as The Wall Street Journal reports, the policy also will restrict ads for nontraditional methods of wagering on the future movements of stock prices and foreign-exchange, such as binary options and financial spread-betting, Google said.

Google said last year it removed more than 130 million ads that were used by hackers to mine for cryptocurrency. That is a very small percentage of the ads run on Google’s ad network.

The company’s director of sustainable ads, Scott Spencer, declined to comment on how much potential ad revenue the company would be turning away by enacting the new policy, saying the decision was made to prevent consumer harm.

One wonders when the crackdown will start on inverse VIX ETFs, or just S&P ETFs, or brokerages? Aren't they all capable of doing consumers "harm"?

As a reminder, here is Facebook's justification:

We want people to continue to discover and learn about new products and services through Facebook ads without fear of scams or deception. That said, there are many companies who are advertising binary options, ICOs and cryptocurrencies that are not currently operating in good faith.

This policy is intentionally broad while we work to better detect deceptive and misleading advertising practices, and enforcement will begin to ramp up across our platforms including Facebook, Audience Network and Instagram. We will revisit this policy and how we enforce it as our signals improve.

We also understand that we may not catch every ad that should be removed under this new policy, and encourage our community to report content that violates our Advertising Policies. People can report any ad on Facebook by clicking on the upper right-hand corner of the ad.

This policy is part of an ongoing effort to improve the integrity and security of our ads, and to make it harder for scammers to profit from a presence on Facebook.

Which roughly translated is "because we know what's best for you!"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-14/bitcoin-sinks-google-moves-ban-all-crypto-ico-ads-june

CNBC link for those who dislike ZH: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/google-bans-crypto-ads.html

....

Recently there have been calls for google to return to its ages old stance of: "don't be evil"? I'm not certain if this qualifies.



This could open the door to smaller and more independent advertisers gaining market share on both google and facebook. It is reported that there are many small crypto exchanges like Robinhood.com who are gaining millions of new accounts due to banks and others banning the purchasing and selling of cryto.

There is clearly a market demand for the purchase and sale or crypto and there is undoubtedly a demand for advertisements. This linked demand could be denominated in millions of dollars. That money has to go somewhere. If facebook and google don't want the cash revenue, it is likely to go elsewhere which could undermine those larger entities over the long term.
3389  Economy / Economics / Re: China ends term limits, Xi Jinping to rule China for life? on: March 13, 2018, 03:35:30 PM

It is interesting how Donald Trump is proposing greater term limits for political office, while in china the complete opposite is occurring with the further removal of term limits. Certainly there is a difference in methodology at the moment with china and america pursuing polar opposites.

It means that when Xi Jinping messes up (and he will, all leaders mess up eventually through either tiredness or hubris or both), they will have to assasinate him to remove him. Whereas before, it would have been a simple matter of saying, "your two terms are up, thank you for your service".

P.S. Donald Trump hasn't got a similar ability to extend term limits in the USA.

The two term limit is part of the Constitution - which means that to change it, you need two thirds of the Senate, two thirds of the House of Representatives AND two-thirds of the states to vote for it. It's pretty hard to do which is why the US constitution doesn't get changed much.

Would "Donald Trump is proposing greater term limitations" have been a better way to phrase it? There are no term limitations for congress or senate. Would introducing term limits be characterized as greater limits or fewer limits? The way things are now, many of them are in office forever. Not unlike what Xi Jinping could eventually become.

I'm wondering if this greater centralization of political power by Xi Jinping could decrease competition which could hurt china over the long term. Could Maduro and Kim Jong's centralization of power in venezuela and north korea be characterized by failure? If the answer to that question is: yes. Then could china face a similar precedent in the future by centralizing power under circumstances where there probably won't be enough competition to streamline operations or incentivize efficiency by those in power, given they're guaranteed their monopoly and likely have little or no motivation to improve circumstances?
3390  Economy / Economics / China ends term limits, Xi Jinping to rule China for life? on: March 13, 2018, 10:21:20 AM
Quote
The roughly 3,000 delegates of the National People’s Congress, China’s legislature, voted almost unanimously on Sunday to end a two-term limit on the presidency, one of the main leadership posts held by Xi Jinping. While the overwhelming approval by the party-controlled congress was not a surprise, the repercussions go beyond just allowing Mr. Xi to stay on longer.

Here’s what is at stake, and why ending the term limit matters.

Why is the limit in place now?
One lesson that China drew from the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution was the danger of concentrating power in one supreme, unassailable leader who ruled for life.

In 1982, when China was recovering from that chaotic era, lawmakers approved a new Constitution that said the president and also the vice president “shall serve no more than two consecutive terms.”

It is sometimes said that Deng Xiaoping, who led China after Mao, introduced the term limit to prevent the top leader from again becoming too powerful. But that’s not entirely true. Back then the Chinese presidency was not such a powerful post. Deng wielded much of his power informally, without titles or term limits, and through his control of the military.

Even so, the politicians and legal experts who drafted China’s 1982 Constitution saw lifelong tenure as a recipe for tyranny, especially in a one-party state.

“If someone stays in office for 15 years, the people won’t dare express their opinions to him,” said Fang Yi, one of the framers of the Constitution. “The French president begins with one term of seven years, with an option for a second term. But that’s different. They have opposition parties who pick their faults every day.”

How did it become important?
The presidential term limit became more important in the 1990s, when Deng prepared to pass power to his successor, Jiang Zemin.

Under Deng in the 1980s, there was turmoil in succession, as two protégés were forced to resign following student demonstrations. Deng tried to ensure the success of his final choice, Mr. Jiang, by setting him up in China’s three most powerful posts: Communist Party general secretary, chairman of the commission in charge of the military and the presidency, which Mr. Jiang took over in 1993.

But Deng also wanted to ensure that Mr. Jiang did not stay on indefinitely. He started a succession cycle by also promoting Mr. Jiang’s younger heir-apparent, Hu Jintao.

Under Mr. Jiang and later Mr. Hu, a new norm formed. The top leader had clear authority because he held all three main posts. But he had to hand them to a successor after about a decade.

“The three-in-one leadership system and form — of party general secretary, state president and military commission chairman — is not only necessary but also the most fitting for a great party and a great country like ours,” Mr. Jiang said in 2004.

That arrangement allowed two of the most stable transitions of power in China’s modern history, from Mr. Jiang to Mr. Hu in 2002, and then Mr. Hu to Mr. Xi six years ago.

Is the presidency powerful in China?
In China, the political job that matters most is the general secretary of the Communist Party. The party controls the military and domestic security forces, and sets the policies that the government carries out. China’s presidency lacks the authority of the American and French presidencies.

This difference is reflected in language. In Chinese, China’s president is called “zhuxi,” which really translates as “chairman.” Foreign presidents get a different title, “zongtong.” So in effect, Chinese people are referring to Mr. Xi as the “state chairman,” though in English his title is officially translated as “state president” to put him on an even footing with other world leaders.

Still, the Chinese presidency is not entirely ceremonial. The president has the power, acting with the legislature, to declare war or a state of emergency. In times of crisis, disagreement between a party leader and president could cause trouble.

The presidency has become increasingly prominent thanks to China’s growing global stature. At home, Mr. Xi usually speaks as party leader; abroad, he appears as president, who is the formal head of state. Mr. Xi relishes the prestige of state visits to the White House or Buckingham Palace, which might be awkward if he were not president.

Why change the system?
The official Chinese news media have said that Mr. Xi wants to abandon the term limit so that he can keep his trinity of leadership posts. According to Xinhua News Agency and other party-run news outlets, having a term limit on just the presidency is unreasonable because neither of Mr. Xi’s other two major posts — party leader and military chairman — has a similar limit.

Of course, this argument does not address the other solution to that inconsistency: imposing limits on the party and military posts. His action leaves little doubt that Mr. Xi is clearing the way to remain top leader for a long time to come, and without clear rivals.

If the term limit remained, Mr. Xi would have to step down as president at the end of his next five-year term, in 2023. Any successor could potentially become a rival.

Mr. Xi seems determined to remain “three-in-one” leader because he sees himself on a historic mission to make China into a great power. Achieving that will take more than a decade, Xi has said.

Last year, Mr. Xi showed his intent to stay in power by declining to promote a potential successor into the new Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s most powerful body. Mr. Xi and Mr. Hu both served political apprenticeships in the Standing Committee before taking over.

Will Xi will be leader for life?
Mr. Xi has produced plenty of surprises in his first five years in power, not least his decision to abolish the term limit before his second term as president had even started. So predicting Mr. Xi’s future steps isn’t easy.

Even so, The People’s Daily said earlier this month that ending the presidential term limit does not “imply a system of lifelong leadership.” The point seems to be that while Mr. Xi may be around for a while, he won’t be another Mao, who remained in power even as he grew ill and incoherent with age.

But Mr. Xi has not specified how many terms he plans on. Perhaps Mr. Xi himself does not have a firm idea yet. Or perhaps he figures he can enhance his power even further by keeping everyone else guessing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-term-limit-explainer.html

....

Not certain what implications this might have for bitcoin in china.  Smiley  There could be postives, or there could be negatives. It might be accurate to say eliminating Xi Jinping's term limit will represent a greater centralization of political power within china. That element could be interesting to discuss within a centralization versus decentralization perspective.  .

How do people see this panning out? It is interesting how Donald Trump is proposing greater term limits for political office, while in china the complete opposite is occurring with the further removal of term limits. Certainly there is a difference in methodology at the moment with china and america pursuing polar opposites.
3391  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is Tiger Woods coming making the come back of all come backs? on: March 13, 2018, 08:31:50 AM
"Why does Tiger Woods wear two shirts?"
"In case he gets a hole-in-one."

 Smiley

I hope he wins. Comeback stories are great. Its always sad to see young and talented people have their lives and careers be destroyed by substance abuse and the temptations that come with success. If Tiger Woods can overcome that I'll be happy for him and hope he can serve as an example to others. Looking at the results of the last round, it looked like Tiger scored -1 under with the leaders being -6. It is possible that Tiger is losing momentum, he did better in the earlier rounds. I hope he can pull it off.
3392  Economy / Economics / Trump Blocks Broadcom Takeover of Qualcomm on Security Risks on: March 13, 2018, 08:09:01 AM
Quote
President Donald Trump issued an executive order Monday blocking Broadcom Ltd. from pursuing its hostile takeover of Qualcomm Inc., scuttling a $117 billion deal that had been scrutinized by a secretive panel over the tie-up’s threat to U.S. national security.

Trump acted on a recommendation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., which reviews acquisitions of American firms by foreign investors. The decision was unveiled just hours after Hock Tan, the chief executive officer of Singapore-based Broadcom, met with officials at the Pentagon in a last-ditch effort to salvage what would have been the biggest technology deal in history.

"There is credible evidence that leads me to believe that Broadcom Ltd.," by acquiring Qualcomm, "might take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States," Trump said in the order released Monday evening in Washington.

The order underscores the tough stance the Trump administration is taking on foreign takeovers of U.S. technology firms. In September, he blocked the sale of Lattice Semiconductor Corp. to a Chinese-backed investor. That was just the fourth time in a quarter century that a U.S. president stopped a foreign takeover of an American firm on national security grounds. At least a half-dozen technology deals have collapsed during the Trump administration in the face of concerns raised by CFIUS.

Broadcom said in a statement it was reviewing the order and that it "strongly disagrees that its proposed acquisition of Qualcomm raises any national security concerns." Qualcomm didn’t respond to requests for comment.



(Link to image: http://i67.tinypic.com/24y4twi.jpg )

The order marked an unprecedented move by the White House to stop a hostile bid for a company. Broadcom didn’t have an agreement to buy San Diego-based Qualcomm. It was fighting to win support from Qualcomm shareholders to gain control of its rival’s board and move forward with its offer. Before waiting for an actual deal, CFIUS opened an investigation to review the risks to national security.

Initially, CFIUS was split on whether to weigh in. Pentagon officials insisted on a review of Broadcom’s proxy battle, while Treasury had pushed back, according to people familiar with the matter.

But then on March 4, Treasury ordered Qualcomm to postpone its shareholder vote by 30 days, saying that a takeover by Broadcom threatened Qualcomm’s leadership in developing the next generation of wireless technology. The government said it feared Broadcom would cut investment in research and development in order to increase short-term profits. That could allow Chinese companies, namely Huawei Technologies Co., to become the dominant supplier, the U.S. said.

Trump’s order came as Broadcom was in the midst of moving its headquarters from Singapore to the U.S. Broadcom had announced the move in November after Tan met with Trump at the White House. After the meeting, CFIUS approved Broadcom’s takeover of Brocade Communications Systems, conditioned on the headquarters move, according to Broadcom.

On Monday, Tan went to the Pentagon to meet with CFIUS officials in a bid to address their concerns. Tan argued that combining Broadcom and Qualcomm would actually further U.S. interests by advancing the development of the next generation of wireless technology known as 5G, according to a person familiar with the meeting.

Tan’s meeting followed a letter from Treasury to the companies Sunday that said national security risks from the takeover may prompt a recommendation to Trump to block the deal.

"In the absence of information that changes CFIUS’s assessment of the national security risks posed by this transaction, CFIUS would consider taking further action, including but not limited to referring the transaction to the president for decision," Treasury said in the letter, which Qualcomm made public earlier Monday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/trump-issues-order-to-block-broadcom-s-takeover-of-qualcomm-jeoszwnt

....

Another business merger block by the Trump administration being given publicity by the mainstream media. The last one to receive this much attention was when the AT&T and Time Warner merger was blocked. It will be interesting to see how this is portrayed by experts. Will it be illustrated as the evils of government meddling in the private sector which results in inefficiencies, stagnates economies and prohibits innovation and growth? It looks as though that's the angle they're taking here:

Quote
On Monday, Tan went to the Pentagon to meet with CFIUS officials in a bid to address their concerns. Tan argued that combining Broadcom and Qualcomm would actually further U.S. interests by advancing the development of the next generation of wireless technology known as 5G, according to a person familiar with the meeting

Qualcomm appears to do defense work for the government which could be the main reason the deal was blocked although there have been a high number of american businesses that have been bought out by foreign corporations over the last few decades which could be concerning.
3393  Economy / Economics / Re: Which type of transactions causes more congestion to network? on: March 12, 2018, 11:14:07 AM
There was a study published on btc network spam in september 2017. It was entitled: The Curious Case of Bitcoin’s “Moby Dick” Spam and the Miners That Confirmed It. It contains interesting information relating to miners and the potential for many bitcoin transactions to be spamware attacks designed to push political agendas relating to blocksize.

It might also be mentioned that at the time of this article bitcoin mining may have been heavily centralized in china with chinese miners wielding great power and influence over the network. That precedent may decline in the future as japan, russia and others move to adopt bitcoin with bitmain's monopoly over ASICs being diluted by nvidia, samsung and others entering the ASIC manufacturing biz.

Quote
The scaling debate has dominated the Bitcoin space for well over two years now. As a central issue, Bitcoin’s one-megabyte block size limit was often insufficient to include all transactions on the network. This ultimately led to the replacement of this block size limit for a block weight limit through Segregated Witness, allowing for up to four megabytes of transaction data. And a group of Bitcoin companies plans to deploy a hard fork to double this by November.

But there is reason to believe the “crisis” may have been fabricated, at least partly. A recent analysis by “LaurentMT,” the developer of blockchain analytics tool OXT, in cooperation with Antoine Le Calvez, creator of Bitcoin statistics resource p2sh.info, shows that the Bitcoin network has had to deal with a load of spam transactions throughout the past two years. Now, in a three-part blog post series dubbing the spam attacks “Moby Dick,” their findings suggest that several major Bitcoin mining pools may have had a hand in this.

“Six or seven pools have played a major role in stuffing blocks with spam transactions,” LaurentMT said. “And charts display what looks like a coordination between these pools.”

The Spam Situation
The very concept of “spam” in the context of Bitcoin is sometimes disputed. Differentiating between “good” and “bad” transactions can be controversial on a network designed for permissionlessness innovation and censorship-resistant payments.

But there is little doubt that certain transactions serve no other purpose than to stuff the Bitcoin network and blockchain. LaurentMT and Le Calvez more specifically define spam as transactions that send lots of tiny fractions of bitcoins to lots of different outputs (“addresses”). These kinds of transactions can’t feasibly have been used to make actual payments, while they do present a significant burden on the Bitcoin network: all nodes need to receive, validate, transmit and (at least temporarily) store all this data.

The analysts found that the Bitcoin network has seen many transactions that fit this category: almost three gigabytes worth of data within a two-year span, adding up to more than 2 percent of the total size of the blockchain, or the equivalent of about a month’s worth of normal Bitcoin use.

“We found that there were four waves of ‘fan-out transactions’ during summer 2015,” LaurentMT told Bitcoin Magazine, referring to the transactions that create lots of outputs. “We think that the first two waves were spamming users and services. The third and fourth waves instead mostly sent the fractions of bitcoins to addresses controlled by the attackers themselves.”

These four waves of spam have been relatively easy to notice, as sudden bursts of transactions clogged up the Bitcoin network for brief periods of time. In some cases these spam attacks were even announced as “stress tests” or “bitcoin giveaways.”

What’s more interesting about LaurentMT and Le Calvez’s analysis is that the two focused on the second half of the puzzle. Almost all the fractions of bitcoins that were sent to all these different addresses have slowly been re-spent back into circulation since. These “fan-in” transactions were not as obvious as the initial waves of spam — but were similarly burdensome.

And, LaurentMT explained, blockchain analysis suggests that most of this spam can be tracked down to one or two entities:

“We’ve identified two wallets that seem to have played a central role in the attacks. They’ve funded long chains of fan-out transactions during summer 2015, and they later aggregated the dust outputs.”

The analysts also suggest that the perpetrator(s) of the spam may have been customers of the Canadian exchange QuadrigaCX. But that’s where their analysis stops.

The Mining Pools
Perhaps what is more interesting is who used this spam to fill up Bitcoin blocks: Bitcoin mining pools.

The spam outputs, generated by the first four waves of fan-out transactions, had been starting to move since autumn of 2015 — sort of. Whoever controlled these addresses had been broadcasting transactions to spend these outputs over the network. However, for a long time, miners did not include these “spam broadcasts” in their blocks; the transactions were ignored.

Up until the second half of 2016, that is. At a very specific point in time, a group of seven mining pools started to suddenly accept these spam broadcasts and include them in the blocks they mined: 1-Hash, Antpool, BitClub Network, BTC.com, HaoBTC, KanoCKPool and ViaBTC.

“So, either these seven pools had an ‘aha moment,’ and suddenly discovered that Bitcoin is about censorship resistance. Or, they had another motivation to fill up blocks with these transactions — perhaps related to the block size debate,” LaurentMT suggested.

For more clues, LaurentMT and Le Calvez looked for notable events that happened around the time of the mining pools’ sudden change of heart. In their research, they did find some correlation with “strange” occurrences. The first is an open letter from HaoBTC (now rebranded as Bixin) to the Bitcoin Core development team. The second was a rumor about a group of Chinese pools planning to end their cooperation with Bitcoin Core: the Terminator Plan.

Of course, something notable happens in Bitcoin just about every week. These events may well be coincidences and, therefore, there could be a very different explanation for the mining pools’ behavior, LaurentMT acknowledged:

“An alternative explanation could be that the different mining pools adopted new mining policies for completely different reasons. I tend to think political motivations are more likely … but that’s just a personal opinion.”

Bitcoin Magazine reached out to the seven mining pools in question. The only mining pool willing to comment on the issue was KanoCKPool, which denied being involved with any sort of manipulation or coordination, stating it just confirms “any and all transactions available.”

UPDATE: After publication of this article (and on reading the comment from Kano CK Pool), LaurentMT pointed out that Kano CK Pool, along with 1Hash and Bitclub Network, are the only pools that had been confirming some of the spam transactions even before the second half of 2016, indicating that the pool could be telling the truth.

UPDATE (2): A representative for Bixin reached out to Bitcoin Magazine to point out that the HaoBTC mining pool had only just started operations at the time when the different mining pools started including spam transactions in their blocks. He said the pool has always confirmed any paying transaction, and denies that HaoBTC (or Bixin) has taken part in any coordination across mining pools.

For a full analysis of the “Moby Dick” spam, read LaurentMT and Le Calvez’s three-part blog post series or watch Le Calvez’s presentation at Breaking Bitcoin in Paris earlier this month.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/curious-case-bitcoins-moby-dick-spam-and-miners-confirmed-it/
3394  Economy / Economics / Re: Can a deflationary currency really work? on: March 12, 2018, 11:01:42 AM
What are the incentives to spend your money if it always goes up in value?
Does this not stunt economic growth?

Were global economies stunted before fractional reserve banking or the modern system of "gold backed" fiat currencies printed without limit out of thin air, were invented?

 Huh

I think its important for people to be skeptical of ideas such as "deflationary currencies stunting economic growth" and not blindly believe in these urban myths without better evidence being provided. Of course bankers love inflationary currencies as it is the best system for fueling wealth redistribution from the poor and middle class upwards to one percenters. Inflationary currencies as a modern analogue to trickle down economics where supposed economists and financial experts have convinced the public that taking on trillions of dollars and euros in debt, the vast majority of which profits the wealthiest demographics--making them richer while everyone else becomes poorer is "best" for society and civilization.

If there was only one currency, and it was deflationary - yes, it would stunt economic growth.

Not to single you out but I'm curious as to how this happens. I have yet to see a good explanation for this and would appreciate it if anyone could enlighten me.    Wink

...

If anyone wants an argument against inflationary policies:

Inflationary policies benefit the rich and do nothing for the public.

  • $1 trillion dollars spent on the F-35. Did the majority of this money go to the public, or did it wind up in the pockets of wealthy wall street demographics who comprise the largest majority shareholders of northrop grumman?
  • Multi trillion dollar bank bailout bill (TARP). This money went to bankers to bail them out of the bad gambling decisions they made with subprime mortgages.
  • War in the middle east. All of the money went to wealthy defense contractors benefiting war profiteers.
  • Healthcare reform / obamacare. It was funded by 20+ tax hikes. All of the money went to maintaining the profit margins of big pharma and medical equipment manufacturers, as well as maintaining state based healthcare monopolies with their price fixing campaigns. None of it when towards benefiting the public good.

This is a short list. Virtually every inflationary program and policy is designed to shift debt further onto the shoulders of poor to middle class working americans while shifting wealth further onto the shoulders of those who are already wealthy. This is the only reason inflationary policies are endorsed. It increases the debt potential of the poor while increasing the profit potential of the wealthy.
3395  Economy / Economics / Re: Invest in BTC vs Invest in Real Estate? on: March 12, 2018, 10:45:49 AM
I've come to realize many have a negative opinion of zerohedge. Having read their articles over the last 10-15 years, I think I have a different perspective from most and know that some of the things zerohedge has published over the years have turned out to be true. Their opinion is often dissenting as they were one of the few independent publications and there were campaigns waged against their credibility in the past.

As this ZH article says, the value of real estate worldwide may be likely to diminish due to wages not growing at a fast enough rate to sustain rapidly accelerating rent or real estate prices. Demand may inevitably decline which could lead to another massive drop in value across the board once government funded home loan programs and foreign demand for real estate dry up.

Real estate may not be a good investment. Who knows for certain?

Quote
London's Property Crash Has Begun

Authored by Damian Reilly via Medium.com,

The average age of a first time mum at London’s Chelsea and Westminster hospital is 37, a statistic that tells you everything you need to know about the choices supposedly affluent city dwellers are being forced to make in the capital. For the middle classes, the cost of living in London — the cost of getting by — long ago went past insane (£17,040: the cost per year of educating a four year-old child at Thomas’s school in Fulham, not including uniform). It’s the incredible price of property, of course, that’s been the engine driving this madness, ratcheting the pressure ever higher on Londoners who don’t own a home while making very wealthy, on paper at least, those who do.

For the last two decades and more, the capital’s property market to all intents and purposes has behaved like a giant Ponzi scheme played on a global scale. Money from all over the world has poured into London bricks, inflating values unrealistically in relation to wages, while the lavish bonuses paid to European bankers working in the City have also stoked momentum responsible for pushing up, for example, the average price of a London semi-detached house by 553 per cent between January 1995 and November 2017, from £133,820 to £873,603.

Over the same period, the average cost of a detached house in the capital went from £257,748 to £1,453,271
.

At last, however, the party is over. London property prices, now still flailing cartoonishly in mid-air despite being well over the edge of a cliff, are at the start of what we can call, for want of a better term, a death plunge. Although the carnage is only just beginning in earnest, desperate homeowners looking to sell are already dropping asking prices by tens of thousands of pounds and more. They know the tide is going out quickly.

The reasons you would have to be clinically insane to buy property in London today are blessedly easy to understand. Describing a modern financial disaster normally requires some pretence of understanding, say, derivatives markets or the myriad immensely complex ways international banks package and trade debt. Not this time.

This time the four horsemen of the capital’s property apocalypse  -  Brexit, knackered oil prices, the threat of a socialist government and absolutely astonishing levels of personal debt  -  are so obvious and easy to see coming they might as well be arriving on bright red London buses.

Quote
1. Brexit is the most obvious factor frightening away potential buyers. Why would anyone purchase a property now in the capital when such an enormous and ominous question mark hangs in the sky? International investors keen to use London as a glamorous base from which to access European markets are understandably cautious — despite some misleadingly high profile 2017 Chinese investments into landmark London buildings — while the threat of a banker exodus is very real (property prices in Frankfurt are spiking as I type). According to the latest report by property data experts Molior London, sales of homes in the capital dropped by 20 percent in the last quarter of 2017. The report added some 15,000 recently completed luxury apartments remain unsold. For market watchers this is an amazing departure from the status quo, when London new builds were snapped up by global investors often before a brick had been laid.

2. The sustained low oil price is also very bad news for London property, chiefly because it means wealthy Arabs — traditionally big-time investors in the capital — are no longer so wealthy. Since Saudi Arabia went tonto on American shale producers in 2015, opening all the spigots to flood the market with cheap oil in an effort to drive them out of business, Gulf Arabs have had a lot fewer disposable petrodollars to put into Mayfair and Knightsbridge pied-a-terres. In fact, virtually all Gulf states are currently running heavy budget deficits, meaning there is significantly less cash washing about at the top of the London property market — bad news for property sellers down the ladder.

Dr Eckart Woertz, an expert in Gulf economies and senior researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, explains: “The low oil price means there is less money to invest. In fact, most Gulf countries are now repatriating money. Look at Saudi Arabia — they have repatriated $200bn of their foreign reserves. The appetite to invest large-scale in London real estate by the big sovereign wealth funds and wealthy individuals is much reduced, which is unsurprising given the yields that are available.”

He adds the recent Riyadh Ritz sheikhdown by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman of 100 or so of the kingdom’s richest men has sent a powerful message to other wealthy Saudis considering investing abroad. “They cannot do it as much now — they cannot wire big amounts. I know someone who has set up a real estate development in a European capital… he has Saudi clients who are telling him they cannot get more than ten million dollars out of the country. Wiring money now raises suspicion.”

3. For those of us who would love to be worried about the difficulty of wiring ten million dollars, the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn waiting in the wings to become Britain’s next Prime Minister is a rather more relatable bad omen for London property values. Corbyn, who at the time of writing was priced at 3–1 to be Britain’s next leader, would head up a socialist government very different in outlook to the nakedly capitalist ones that have presided over the capital’s property boom. Corbyn, for example, has openly advocated large-scale “requisitioning” of homes owned and left empty by wealthy investors in order to give them to the poor. “It cannot be acceptable that in London you have luxury buildings and luxury flats kept as land banking for the future while the homeless and poor look for somewhere to live,” he has said. While undoubtedly a lovely sentiment, Jez, making state confiscation threats out loud isn’t great for shifting houses to minted foreigners.

4. And then there’s perhaps the most overlooked factor affecting the market: after years and years of being squeezed relentlessly, the indigenous London middle class, as it is in the wider UK, is largely skint. According to a recent survey by comparethemarket.com, a person in Britain is on average £8,000 in debt, not including mortgage repayments. Last June, the Bank of England announced UK unsecured consumer credit had gone over £200bn. It’s not all skagheads in tenement blocks running up these debts. Research has repeatedly found that more than a third of people using credit cards on a monthly basis to make ends meet earn between £50k and £70k a year. In London, where living costs are highest, the pain is felt as keenly, if not moreso, as it is anywhere else in the country. With interest rates expected to start rising in earnest this year, that pain can be expected to intensify horribly.
Quote

Over the coming months you will read and hear plenty of commentary from interested parties talking up the prospects for London’s property market. All of it will be bull.

London’s property market has not “plateaued”, nor has growth “cooled”. London property values are right now dropping like a stone and there is little to break the fall. Whisper it: 2018 will be the year smug Londoners finally stopped boring on about basement and loft conversions at smart dinner parties.

By the late summer, these same people will be weeping hot tears into cold gazpacho starters and moaning to anyone who’ll listen about negative equity. At long last, the crash has arrived.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-19/londons-property-crash-has-begun
3396  Other / Meta / Re: Forum on: March 12, 2018, 10:27:30 AM
1) Why should we not have an internal wallet service, where when an individual advertises any crypto for sale, they should be required by the system to have the respective amount within their internal wallet of the respective crypto for the post to be approved for publication. This will help stem out scammers who advertise what they don't have and minimize scam incidences in the forum.

Bitcoin having an open ledger system where wallet amounts are visible to the public could diminish a need for competing wallet services which could be man hour, resource and capital intensive. Many users on this forum have their wallet address listed in their profile and have demonstrated they can move funds from those addresses. It could reduce a need for new wallet platforms to be introduced given how a certain degree of transparency is already built into the system.

2) Why should the system not be updated to ensure that it offers escrow. System escrow can be trusted by everyone. I know individuals offering escrow services may be against this since they earn from it. But think of this, internal escrow creates a sense of security, and everyone involved in the trade will feel safe. The internal escrow can also be used by campaign managers to ensure trust and timely payment.

There are many existing escrow services, some of which could have more capital, better engineers and employees and overall more support.

You have a point in that expansion and one stop shopping are generally good policies to adopt. But I don't know if potential advantages would be cost effective or worthwhile in these cases.
3397  Economy / Services / Re: I need someone to receive PayPal payments and send me BTC in exchange? on: March 12, 2018, 08:37:50 AM
Why not just exchange your PayPal fund with bitcoin through virwox?

There are new KYC checks implemented in Virwox withdrawal via paypal(with larger sums of money). I'm not certain what the cutoff is. Or if it only applies to larger amounts. But if you sell a decent amount of bitcoin on virwox and withdraw via paypal your money will be forwarded to skrill and you won't be able to access it unless you verify your identify and provide all personal information.

If someone exchanges smaller amounts of btc on virwox without a KYC check through skrill let me know, please. I would be interested to know details about this.
3398  Economy / Marketplace / OPERATION BAYONET: INSIDE THE STING THAT HIJACKED AN ENTIRE DARK WEB DRUG MARKET on: March 11, 2018, 11:15:15 AM
Quote
FOR ANYONE WHO has watched the last few years of cat-and-mouse games on the dark web's black markets, the pattern is familiar: A contraband bazaar like the Silk Road attracts thousands of drug dealers and their customers, along with intense scrutiny from police and three-letter agencies. Authorities hunt down its administrators, and tear the site offline in a dramatic takedown—only to find that its buyers and sellers have simply migrated to the next dark-web market on their list.

So when Dutch police got onto the trail of the popular dark-web marketplace Hansa in the fall of 2016, they decided on a different approach: Not a mere takedown, but a takeover.

In interviews with WIRED, ahead of a talk they plan to give at Kaspersky Security Analyst Summit Thursday, two Netherlands National High Tech Crime Unit officers detailed their 10-month investigation into Hansa, once the largest dark-web market in Europe. At its height, Hansa's 3,600 dealers offered more than 24,000 drug product listings, from cocaine to MDMA to heroin, as well as a smaller trade in fraud tools and counterfeit documents. In their probe into that free-trade zone, which would come to be known as Operation Bayonet, the Dutch investigators not only identified the two alleged administrators of Hansa's black market operation in Germany, but went so far as to hijack the two arrested men's accounts to take full control of the site itself.

'We thought maybe we could really damage the trust in this whole system.'

The NHTCU officers explained how, in the undercover work that followed, they surveilled Hansa's buyers and sellers, discreetly altered the site's code to grab more identifying information of those users, and even tricked dozens of Hansa's anonymous sellers into opening a beacon file on their computers that revealed their locations. The fallout of that law enforcement coup, the officers claim, has been one of the most successful blows against the dark web in its short history: millions of dollars worth of confiscated bitcoins, more than a dozen arrests and counting of the site's top drug dealers, and a vast database of Hansa user information that authorities say should haunt anyone who bought or sold on the site during its last month online.

"When a dark market is taken down, everyone goes to the next one. It's a whack-a-mole effect," says Marinus Boekelo, one of the NHTCU investigators who worked on the Hansa operation. By secretly seizing control of Hansa rather than merely unplugging it from the internet, Boekelo says he and his Dutch police colleagues aimed not only to uncover more about Hansa's unsuspecting users, but to deal a psychological blow to the broader dark-web drug trade. "We thought maybe we could really damage the trust in this whole system," he says.

While the Hansa takeover at times involved the close cooperation of American and German law enforcement, neither the US Department of Justice nor the German Federal Criminal Police Office responded to WIRED's requests for comment, leaving some elements of the NHTCU's account without independent confirmation. What follows is the Dutch police's own, candid description of their experience digging into—and ultimately running—one of the world's top online narcotics trafficking operations.

Pulling Loose Threads
Despite its dramatic turns, the Hansa investigation started in a traditional fashion: with a tip. Security researchers believed they had found a Hansa server in the Netherlands data center of a web-hosting firm. (Security firm BitDefender has claimed some involvement in the Hansa operation. But the NHTCU declined to reveal the name of the security company or the web-hosting firm, along with several other details they say they're keeping under wraps to protect methods and sources. Even the names of the two German men charged with running Hansa remain secret, since German law protects the names of prosecuted individuals until their trial.)

As Boekelo tells it, the security firm had somehow found Hansa's development server, a version of the site where it tested new features before deploying them in the live version that handled its formidable load of thousands of visits from drug shoppers every day. While the live Hansa site was protected by Tor, the development server had somehow been exposed online, where the security firm discovered it and recorded its IP address.

The Dutch police quickly contacted the web host, demanded access to its data center, and installed network-monitoring equipment that allowed them to spy on all traffic to and from the machine. They immediately found that the development server also connected to a Tor-protected server at the same location that ran Hansa's live site, as well as a pair of servers in another data center in Germany. They then made a copy of each server's entire drive, including records of every transaction performed in Hansa's history, and every conversation that took place through its anonymized messaging system.

Even that massive security breach shouldn't have necessarily exposed any of the site's vendors or administrators, since all of Hansa's visitors and admins used pseudonyms, and sites protected by Tor can only be accessed by users running Tor, too, anonymizing their web connections. But after poring through the contents of the servers, the police found a major operational slip-up: One of the German servers contained the two alleged founders' chat logs on the antiquated messaging protocol IRC. The conversations stretched back years, and amazingly, included both admins' full names and, for one man, his home address.

Setting the Trap
Hansa's two suspected admins, the Dutch cops had discovered, were across the border in Germany—one 30-year-old man in the city of Siegen, and another 31-year-old in Cologne. But when the NHTCU contacted the German authorities to request their arrest and extradition, they discovered the pair were already on the radar of German authorities, and under investigation for the creation of Lul.to, a site selling pirated ebooks and audiobooks.

That gave the Dutch investigators an idea: Perhaps they could use the existing German investigation as cover for their own operation, letting the German police nab their suspects for e-book piracy and then secretly taking over Hansa without tipping off the market's users. "We came up with this plan to take over. We could use that arrest," says Gert Ras, the head of the NHTCU. "We had to get rid of the real administrators to become the administrators ourselves."

Just as the NHTCU's elaborate trap started to take shape, however, it was also falling apart: The Hansa servers the Dutch cops were watching suddenly went silent. Ras and Boekelo say they suspect that their copying of the servers somehow tipped off the site's admins. As a result, they had moved the market to another Tor-protected location, shuffling it in Tor's vast deck of anonymized machines around the globe. "That was a setback," Ras says.

Even then, remarkably, the Dutch cops didn't simply cut their losses, ask the Germans to arrest Hansa's administrators, and likely used clues from their computers to find the site's servers and shut them down. Instead, they decided to stick with their stealthy takeover plan, and spent the ensuing months poring over evidence—even as the site continued its brisk narcotics trade—in an attempt to locate the Hansa servers again and quietly hijack them. Finally in April 2017, they got another lucky break: The alleged administrators had made a bitcoin payment from an address that had been included in those same IRC chatlogs. Using the blockchain analysis software Chainalysis, the police could see that payment went to a bitcoin payment provider with an office in the Netherlands. And when the police sent that bitcoin payment firm a legal demand to cough up more information, it identified the recipient of that transaction as another hosting company, this time in Lithuania.

Two For One
Not long after pinpointing those servers for the second time, the NHTCU learned of another surprising windfall: The FBI contacted them to tell them that they'd located one of the servers for AlphaBay, the world's most popular dark-web drug market at the time—far larger than Hansa—in the Netherlands. American investigators were closing in and wanted to pull the plug, just as the Dutch were planning to commandeer Hansa.

The Dutch police quickly realized that after AlphaBay was shut down, its refugees would go searching for a new marketplace. If their scheme worked, AlphaBay's users would flood to Hansa, which would secretly be under police control. "Not only would we get this effect of undermining the trust in dark markets, we'd also get this influx of people," Ras says. They'd be able to surveil a far larger portion of the dark-web economy, he says, and instill a sense in users that there was nowhere to hide. Even fleeing to another marketplace wouldn't let them escape law enforcement's reach.

With the pieces of the takeover plan in place, the Dutch police sent a pair of agents to the Lithuanian data center, taking advantage of the two countries' mutual legal assistance treaty. On June 20, in a carefully timed move designed to catch the two German suspects at the keyboard, the German police raided the two men's homes, arrested them, and seized their computers with their hard drives unencrypted. The Germans then signaled the Dutch police, who immediately began the migration of all of Hansa's data to a new set of servers under full police control in the Netherlands.

"We coordinated with the Germans, so that when they busted in the door we immediately started our action," says Boekelo. "We didn’t want to have any downtime."

Under questioning in a German jail, the two men handed over credentials to their accounts, including the Tox peer-to-peer chat system they had used to communicate with the site's four moderators. After three days, Hansa was fully migrated to the Netherlands and under Dutch police control. No users—or even those moderators—appeared to have noticed the change.

Total Control
For the next month, the Dutch police would use their position at the top of Europe's largest dark-web market to pull off increasingly aggressive surveillance of its users. They rewrote the site's code, they say, to log every user's password, rather than store them as encrypted hashes. They tweaked a feature designed to automatically encrypt messages with users' PGP keys, so that it secretly logged each message's full text before encrypting it, which in many cases allowed them to capture buyers' home addresses as they sent the information to sellers. The site had been set up to automatically removed metadata from photos of products uploaded to the site; they altered that function so that it first recorded a copy of the image with metadata intact. That enabled them to pull geolocation data from many photos that sellers had taken of their illegal wares.

As they tell it, the police eventually became so brazen that they staged a fake server glitch that deleted all the photos from the site, forcing sellers to re-upload photos and giving Dutch authorities another chance to capture the metadata. That ruse alone snagged the geolocated coordinates of more than 50 dealers.

In perhaps its most intrusive move of all, the NHTCU says it essentially tricked users into downloading and running a homing beacon. Hansa offered sellers a file to serve as a backup key, designed to let them recover bitcoin sent to them after 90 days even if the sites were to go down. The cops replaced that harmless text document with a carefully crafted Excel file, says Boekelo. When a seller opened it, their device would connect to a unique url, revealing the seller's IP address to the police. Boekelo says that 64 sellers fell for that trap.

Throughout the trickery, Hansa thrived under the NCHTU's secret control. The undercover agents had studied the logs of the real admins' conversations with their moderators and the site's users long enough to convincingly impersonate them, Ras and Boekelo say. In fact, a whole team of officers took turns impersonating the two admins, so that when disputes between buyers and sellers escalated beyond the moderators' authority, undercover agents were ready to deal with them even more efficiently than the real admins had. "The quality really went up," says Ras. "Everyone was very satisfied with the level of service they got."

Springing the Trap
That competence also made Hansa the natural destination when AlphaBay suddenly winked out of existence in early July of last year. As drug buyers became impatient, eventually more than 5,000 a day of them flocked to Hansa, eight times the normal registration rate, the NHTCU says—all of whom immediately fell under police surveillance.

One week after Alphabay first went down, the Wall Street Journal reported that the site's servers had been seized in a law enforcement raid and that its founder, Canadian Alexandre Cazès, had apparently committed suicide in a Thai prison. The news threw the dark web community into chaos. The resulting flood of Alphabay refugees became so large that the NHTCU shut down new registrations for ten days. The police were bound by Dutch law to track and report every transaction occurring on the site under their control to Europol; with roughly 1,000 illegal transactions occurring every day on their watch, the paperwork was becoming unmanageable.

During their time as black market administrators, the Dutch police only banned one product on Hansa: the highly dangerous opioid Fentanyl. All other drugs on the site continued to flow freely, a circumstance over which Ras and Boekelo seem surprisingly unconflicted. "They would have taken place anyway," says Ras without hesitation, "but on a different market."

After 27 days and about 27,000 transactions, however, the NHTCU decided to hang up its ledger. It unplugged Hansa, replacing the site with a seizure notice and a link to the NHTCU's own Tor site showing a list of identified and arrested dark-web drug buyers and sellers. "We trace people who are active at Dark Markets and offer illicit goods or services," the site read. "Are you one of them? Then you have our attention."

Fallout
The Dutch police came away from their Hansa takeover with concrete rewards: They obtained at least some data on 420,000 users, including at least 10,000 home addresses, which they've turned over to Europol to be distributed to other police agencies around Europe and the world. Since the takedown, Ras says, they've arrested a dozen of Hansa's top vendors, with more arrests planned for coming weeks. They seized 1,200 bitcoins from Hansa, worth about $12 million by today's exchange rates. Since Hansa used bitcoin's multi-signature transaction function to protect funds from police seizure, that confiscation was only possible because the NHTCU had taken over the site and sabotaged its code to disable that feature during Hansa's last month online.

The Dutch police say they've also performed roughly 50 "knock-and-talks," in-person visits to buyers' homes to let them know they've been identified by their dark-web drug purchases, though they say only one high-volume buyer has been arrested so far. "We want people to be aware," says Ras. "We have the data. It's here, and it's not going away."

As for the operation's impact on the overall drug trade, the police point to a study by the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, which found that the Hansa hijacking did have a significantly different outcome from previous dark-web takedowns. While most drug vendors who fled AlphaBay showed up soon after on other dark web drug sites, those who fled Hansa didn't—or if they did, they recreated their online identities thoroughly enough to escape recognition. "Compared to both the Silk Road takedowns, or even the AlphaBay takedown, the Hansa Market shut down stands out in a positive way," the report reads. "We see the first signs of game-changing police intervention."

Other dark-web trackers aren't so sure. Nicolas Christin, a researcher at Carnegie Mellon, says it's tough to measure the long-term impact of the Hansa operation, as drug buyers and sellers still flock to alternative sites like Dream Market, the new top dark-web drug site after Hansa and AlphaBay's desmise, and even to invite-only sites created by individual sellers. "I think in the short term, it created a lot of upheaval," Christin says. "Whether it was sustained, I really don't know."

As for Hansa's users themselves, opinion seems split. "Looks like I'll be sober for a while. Not trusting any markets," one user wrote on Reddit's darknet-focused forum the day the Hansa takedown was announced last summer.

But some insisted that the dark web would bounce back, even from the most elaborate sting operation it had ever seen. "Things will stabilize, they always do," that anonymous user wrote. "The Great Game of whack-a-mole never ends."

https://www.wired.com/story/hansa-dutch-police-sting-operation/?retry

Interesting exclusive info.

On the positive side the takedowns of alpha bay, silk road 2.0 and hansa in 2017 didn't appear to affect bitcoin's price very much. In 2013/2014 there were many who were thoroughly convinced bitcoin would be worthless if it wasn't for the utility and support provided to it by silk road. It is nice to see how far bitcoin has come. It may have outgrown the necessity of needing those dark web markets in order to maintain its overall value.

One point which interests me is the tendency dark web admins have to utilize servers which are located in countries that cooperate with law enforcement. In this case hansa's servers appear to have been located in the netherlands. This might be a stupid question but might it be easier to relocate servers to a country which hates the united states and wouldn't be likely to cooperate with an investigation?

(Jokingly) Perhaps in the future north korea will offer server hosting services for dark net sites as a means of circimventing economic sanctions and generating revenue. If the united states or any other nation wants to investigate the servers hosted in north korea to collect evidence that might complicate things, I imagine.
3399  Economy / Economics / Looking Past the Bitcoin Price Dip: Solid Technical Improvements Ahead on: March 11, 2018, 10:47:30 AM
Quote
In the cryptocurrency world, negative trends tend to skew people’s perception. More specifically, everyone is focused on the current Bitcoin price dip. It makes them lose track of the bigger picture, which still paints a very promising future for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. A lot of positive things will happen in the next few years, regardless of the current Bitcoin or future Bitcoin price.

The Bitcoin Price Dip is Temporary
If history has taught us one thing, it is how the Bitcoin price tends to bounce back strongly. We see big dips every single year and often end the year with an all-time high. This cycle has been present for some time and seems destined to repeat itself. Speculators may feel differently about that outlook right now, though. This recent Bitcoin price dip has a lot of people concerned, even though things will be just fine.

More specifically, every Bitcoin price dip is a new buying opportunity. Lower prices will attract new speculators and investors alike. This is the way it has always been in the financial sector. Cryptocurrencies are no exception in this regard. Everyone knows Bitcoin hit $19,000 last year. There is no reason to think we won’t see that price again in the future. It may not happen in 2018, but it will eventually happen again. Some people even predict a BTC value of $29,000 by the end of this year.

Fueling the future Bitcoin price growth will be some major technical developments. Most people already know SegWit adoption is increasing as we speak. This leads to lower fees, normal confirmation times, and transaction batching. All of these trends are incredibly positive for the world’s leading cryptocurrency when looking at it from a long-term perspective.

Other Major Developments on the Horizon
SegWit alone will not make Bitcoin great again, though. It does pave the way for the Lightning Network. This scaling solution seems to be closer to a main net release every single day. When it goes live, it will certainly shake things up for all Bitcoin users around the world. Even so, other technical developments are needed to improve the overall ecosystem.

In the near future, we will see more sidechains such as Rootstock. There’s also the likes of drivechain, Liquid, and a few other sidechain projects to keep in mind. All of these new features will unlock new possibilities for Bitcoin in the future. In time, they will also impact the Bitcoin price in a positive manner.

For those looking for more privacy, Bitcoin will have you covered as well. Tumeblebit and ZeroLink are two projects definitely worth keeping an eye on. Their integration may not necessarily happen in 2018, but the overall improvements will attract fresh capital regardless. The future is looking extremely bright for Bitcoin, assuming people are willing to see it. Looking past the current Bitcoin price dip is difficult, but this is only a temporary setback.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/03/10/looking-beyond-bitcoin-price-dip-solid-technical-improvements-ahead/

....

This article extols the virtues of: segwit, lightning network, rootstock, drivechain & liquid as scaling solutions which will positively affect bitcoin's price in the future. Tumblebit and ZeroLink are also being advertised as future anonymity / privacy solutions(why no mention of chipmixer). With the exception of the most obvious examples here, I have not heard of any of these projects. Can anyone share information or experiences with them or perhaps offer an opinion on how beneficial they are likely to be to bitcoin's future?

It seems as if every few months there's a new technology which claims it will revolutionize bitcoin and blockchain as we know it. I hope some of these projects pan out better than the ones I heard about last year which seem to have disappeared.
3400  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: A Question on: March 11, 2018, 10:30:21 AM
I don’t see why you are interested in getting small sums from other people.

Over the short term, there wouldn't be much potential for gain. It would be the beginning of a process to build a reputation, keep a record of wins versus losses, and try to prove I can deliver on my claims. The low sums would be to make it easier to cover losses in the eventuality of worst case scenarios and ensure that any funds held in trust will be 100% insured.

The long term perspective is where things get interesting. If 6-12 months from now, I can prove the validity of my claims, then there might be an opportunity there.

I've seen a thread on the investor based games or from another section I really can't remember exactly since it was an old thread where he invites users to invest 0.01 btc to him and they would have to choose which coin they want to invest on and he must hold everyone's money for about a year and then give it back to them.

How long are we talking about for this hodl service you're planning to operate in the future?

Edit. : I found the thread it was from Loyce.

Nice link! Almost identical to what I was thinking of.

What do you mean? do you intend to interest us to invest money for your gamble, in return for 15 - 50% per month?

Yes. 100% correct. Also: an accurate description of what banks, hedge fund managers and other investors do.   Smiley  When you deposit money in a bank, any legal guidelines which prevented them from gambling with your money were removed back in 1999. The 2008 economic crisis was a real world example of what happens when banks gamble on subprime mortgages and lose.   Embarrassed  Anyways I just feel like I need to do something for myself and perhaps the community this is the only thing I can think of where I might contribute.  
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