Molde can also qualify with a loss, but it needs to be a one-goal-difference loss only, where Molde themselves have to score, so something like 1-2/2-3/3-4. If they lose 1-0, the H2H will be tied, but Rapid has the better goal differential and take 2nd place in the group. This normally screams over, but a) odds are poor b) Rapid will look to not concede first - they have 90min time to score that one goal. If they concede, they will have to win 3-1+ c) Molde will look for a 0-0 here and they can defend well.

The under is probably more interesting, where you hedge your bet asap, once a goal has been scored


For Alkmaar the calculation is really easy: Win and in They don't need to have one eye in Napoli. With 3 points at Rijeka, it's not possible for both Napoli and Real Sociedad to finish better than them. Same as Trofo I think Napoli will more or less park the bus and look for a draw here in first place. They would most likely lose first place with a draw, but first you have to make sure your qualify for KO phase. Real Sociedad is not super lethal upfront, so I am thinking under here as well. Napoli will probably win this with some late counter-attack...

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I won't make any pre-match bets. In these last rounds with lots of different scenarios and teams having to push more and more as we near the final whistle, there are lots of good bets to be found inplay. Way better bets than pre-match, so keep your powder dry

1.  Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC - 1
2.  Newcastle United FC vs. West Bromwich Albion - 1
3.  Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC - 2
4.  Leicester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC - 1

5.  Valencia CF  vs. Athletic Bilbao - 1
6.  Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC - 2
7.  Real Betis Balompie vs. Villarreal CF - 2

8.  FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Koln - 2
9.  FC Augsburg vs. FC Schalke 04 - X
10. Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim - 1

11. FC Crotone vs. Spezia Calcio - 2
12. Torino FC vs. Udinese Calcio - 2
13. Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma - 2

14. Olympique Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC - 2
15. OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC - X

Betnomi username: tyKiwanuka

Bonus game:
16. Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC - 2

Exactly my thoughts as well and if something looks too easy, you should always think twice, but I am scratching my head I really can't see Dallas winning and the odds for the Ravens are huge imo. For me they have like 90-95% to win this one - so 1.05 to 1.10 in odds - but they are 1.20+. Thinking about what could go wrong, there is a) rusty Lamar b) Ravens still have some key players not available due to Covid c) losing the turnover battle d) in-game injuries to key players.

Odds for BAL have come down a bit during the day, but I am somehow not super convinced although I see a lot of value still. Probably overthinking

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Very divided about the Washington win yesterday. Happy for them/Smith and it was about time that the Steelers got their first L of the season after quite some shaky wins. I was pretty convinced the Steelers would still win this, when they got the ball back with 1:54 and 1 timeout left (odds were PIT - WAS 2.15 1.85 at that point), but they finally ran a bit out of luck with that freakish INT.
And then this win was a bit meh, because of the Giants playoff hopes I would have never thought that I would be able to say the words "PO" and "Giants" in one sentence without embarrassing myself, but they really have improved A LOT. When you win a NFL game with Colt McCoy being your QB, then this tells something about the rest of the team. Defense is super good imo, offensively it gets better little by little and this is without Barkley. With Jones improving more, Barkley coming back and a good draft, it could be an exciting next season.

And everyone is laughing about the NFC East winner hosting a PO game with a poor record, but I wouldn't be so sure about the Rams/Seahawks/Bucs having a virtual bye at NYG/WAS

Falls du erzählen magst, wie schaut diese in etwa aus ? Brauchst keine Zahlen etc. nennen, aber finde ich sehr interessant, denn eine Exit-Strategie ist i.A. wichtiger als eine "Einstiegs"-Strategie. Eher Salami-Taktik bei steigenden Kursen oder bei Datum/Punkt/Preis X alles weg ?


Hier auch die Frage/Bitte, ob du mal erläutern könntest Der Discord ist etwas "anstrengend" und ich habe sonst nichts darüber gefunden^^

Just for clarification: New users are always welcome and I will add them to the table without them having to ask for permission to join - I don’t like to be a judge. So, if you want to join the MM family, just post your picks, maybe write a few sentences, engage in the discussions/cheering, be nice etc.

Who then is eligible for the threads bonus prize is not up to me, that decision is made by rdbase/Steve/SB or by majority decision from the MM family, if that is wanted.

For my side event, I won’t add more eligible users until the 0.01 BTC have been won.

I didn't say it's the toughest - that is probably Group F, if you judge by how contested the top two spots will be - but Group E could lead to an interesting scenario, since you have two high-ranked UNL group winners in there. Lets say FRA/BEL/ITA/ESP/AUT are a safe Top2 in their groups by matchday 7, then Wales and Czech Republic will have secured their PO spot already at least and might not be super interested/motivated in the remaining games no more (if they can't reach 1st place anyway no more, which can be assumed with BEL probably winning all games). Then you could see Belarus/Estonia pulling some upsets against Wales/Czech Republic


Group J is the poorest group actually for me. Iceland has lost a bit of its magic, Romania is struggling since a long time and North Macedonia did qualify for Euro 2020 which is a very nice accomplishment for them, but they are still a small football nation. And Armenia and Liechtenstein, well.....

Yes, it's just speculation on my end, but you always to have speculate a bit; some would call it anticipate But remember that awful showing from PIT in Dallas - the next two games they won with a combined score of 63-13. Then they had this poor showing against the Ravens at home afterwards again. They don't look too sharp today, but teams can have bad days without having to reinvent themselves afterwards. It's a lot of little details that sometimes click and sometimes not. And these divisional games against the Ravens are always hard-fought and it's never easy to play a team that has a lot of fresh injuries (here to Covid). You don't know what to expect from them, they usually grow even more together as a group and you as their opponent have the mental obstacle of this being an easy must-win, maybe underestimating things.

Slightly offtopic, from Basketball a few years ago:

The day before a game one team caught some virus and they didn't get 5 players ready, having to call some youth players to join them on short notice in an away game. In the end they had 7 players, while the home team had a full roster and were like 15pts favs without the overnight injuries being factored in. So I jumped like crazy on that HC and was already counting my profits. The away team played their hearts out and gave one hell of a fight. End of the story, they lost with 10 iirc. And the HC was 30+ shortly before tip-off......

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Don't see any of the big teams struggling to finish in top two places in their group. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Italy with Switzerland/Northern Ireland in the group, who both can be tough to beat. Netherlands have some problems from time to time, but Turkey/Norway too weak in the end I guess. Groups F and H look pretty interesting.

Happy discussing and good luck with your bets

Quite some interesting red cards this weekend, to shed more light into this enigma.

England

West Brom - Crystal Palace
Red Card: West Brom in 34th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-5

First half red card = back the team one man up to win/equalize. It worked again, Crystal Palace totally dominated the second half, scoring 4 unanswered.

Spain

Levante - Getafe
Red Card: Getafe in 7th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

This one was in first half as well, but Levante was already leading, taking nicely advantage as the game went on and securing an easy win. Getafe got another red card in 77th minute, when it was 3-0. Pretty unusual setup all in all, so something to forget fast.

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Alaves - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Alaves in 60th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Second half red card = lay next goal for the team one man up. Worked here as well, Alaves were able to defend the result until the final whistle.

Italy

Roma - Sassuolo
Red Card: Roma in 41st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

This time this strategy (Sassuolo win) wouldn't have worked, but it can't work every time, we are just looking for value.

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Crotone - Napoli
Red Card: Crotone in 50th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-4

Lay next goal strategy would have failed here as well. There is of course a huge difference in quality between these teams and Napoli is a good counter-attack team, but difficult to spot/decide when to better not use this strategy^^

Germany

Hertha - Union
Red Card: Union in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 3-1

First half red card strategy striked again and I actually took advantage of my observations in this game, netting me a nice profit.

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Going forward I will concentrate on the first half red cards and check that strategy each round. To get a bigger sample size faster, I will add FRA1 and NED1.
The lay next goal strategy I will leave aside, since I don't think there is that much value and it's very hard to get it right, i.e. when to use it and more importantly when not

This is what I am thinking as well, lol. I thought the odds are ok, until everyone here fell in love with WAS and now I am suddenly thinking on betting on the Steelers Pittsburgh was really poor against a decimated Ravens team, but in NFL one should never draw any conclusions from what happened the week before (although I do this as well, but you shouldn't in a perfect world). This is a new game and I expect a different Steelers team today. And tbf, yes, they are not super convincing often, but they find a way to win, which is a quality as well. They easily beat the Jaguars/Bengals before and is Washington that much better ? Not sure. Beating Dallas and Burrow-less Bengals isn't that much of an accomplishment.

All in all I think Pittsburgh will find a way to win this one too, but as people anticipate, it could be close again. I wouldn't feel comfortable with +HC on WAS nor with -HC on Steelers, so will just enjoy a NFL game at a very unusual time of the day on a Monday.

In the meantime the odds for the 49ers keep on dropping, but I guess you will be able to get 2.50+ for both teams inplay, so better to wait for that, if you fancy any team.

I or rather my friend received the bonus prize from Sportsbet, thank you very much Steve and SB boss

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I will be re-distributing a part of it here in this thread to one lucky knowledgeable guy next weekend – it will be 0.01 BTC for those who are curious.

To determine the winner, there will be a side event for this weeks MM, which will be to guess the correct number of goals scored in the 15 games in total.

One entry per user, the following users are eligible to submit a guess:



So, together with your picks, just post something like “Total Goals: 45”. If a number is already taken, it can’t be taken again, so check the previous picks from your fellow MMers. I also added a row to the public sheet for people to check/follow.

If there is no winner this week, the 0.01 BTC will carry over to next week and we will do this again until we found a winner -  it’s not “nearest to the number”, if no one gets the exact number.

The BTC will get sent to your wallet by me, not to your SB account.

We had this discussion the other week about players tanking, being told to tank by the coaches, GM's etc. And if you watch the last TD-play from the Raiders, it's crystal clear that the Jets didn't want to win this one.

3rd & 10 on the NYJ46, 13 sec left, no TO left for LV. Here you normally play my beloved prevent defense (and it makes sense there), cover the sidelines and allow plays through the middle, secondary stands deep-ish. What do the Jets do ? They send 7 in a low-effort blitz and even have the safety spying on Carr - as if he would or even could run 46 yards All 3 CB's had to play man-to-man et voilá the hail mary found its target.


I placed a bet on the Giants at HT, so SEA win at least should be safe


During losing runs I often had the idea of just doing my normal analyses and then just bet against them. But never had the guts to go through with it in the end

Very good result overall boys, which is mainly due to the favs doing their jobs this weekend a bit better. From the high-consensus picks only Bayern disappointed. And Flamengo finally didn't spoil the party for most of us^^



If 11 correct picks is enough to top the leaderboard is yet to be seen, but I doubt it. Would surprise me, if the leading guy didn't have the Liverpool/Milan double.

In the all-time table we have notblox1, leea-1334 and me sharing the fame points this week:



Indymoney with a very good average of 8.4 after 5 participations, which is already an ok-ish sample size then.

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Thanks, trying my best to make this a bit more fun If you like these kind of competitions and aren't aware yet (didn't check if you joined), there is a similar one running which is organized by Trofo for Betnomi. There is a new weekly thread, the one for this week is here and the one for next week will be announced there too: Betnomi – Top Leagues Predictor – 1 BTC main prize - 3rd edition

Apart from the obvious one, i.e. the Colts, I could imagine the Jets pulling an upset. NYJ odds are super low imo, since I don't think they even want to win, so something fishy going on there. Maybe it's because the Raiders are usually poor in early games at the east coast. If the odds were higher, I would probably try my luck, but around 4-ish isn't enough for me, I would want 8.

I am not very inspired in general today. Was staring at the odds for quite some time, without finding anything to bet on with confidence. So will just play Titans ML and the over 51.0 in Vikings game to not get too bored. And maybe a little bit of Cardinals ML later, although the H2H looks horrible for them.

If you profit, you are not losing In general bookmakers don't like winning players, which makes sense, because it reduces their own profits. So 99% of them will limit your account sooner or later, if you win longterm (and make frequent withdrawals). There is some threshold though, i.e. if you win $5 per month on average and withdraw them, this won't get you a limit. Things get different when it's $500 or more....

It kind of makes sense or is understandable, but I think bookmakers limiting policies are too strict nowadays. They are greedy just like all their customers are - human nature.


Exbet launched their BTC betting exchange just recently and you won't get limited there for winning. As you anticipated correctly, they don't care, if you win or lose, they make their money with commission. They are still in early stages though and it will take some time until more markets are added and there is more liquidity. But it looks promising all in all.

Fairlay is another one.

Thats my friends account yep, I still don't have any SB account no more, since geo-restricted But he decided to play for himself now, with BTC mooning; I will maybe get some %, if he wins, since I introduced him to this^^. So I asked another friend, but there were some issues with his picks as well, since ManU wasn't graded last night for him, while it was for others like leea:



This has now been corrected and with it the leaderboard, where we have one sole leader with 8 correct picks now

10/15 matches done and after a lot of red in the beginning, the late games brought quite some green:



notblox1, leea-1334 and me top our internal table with 7 correct picks, followed by tomahawk9 and jeremypwr with 6. I didn't check the SB leaderboard yet, but I guess there are users with more correct ones. Fun fact: notblox1 and me have the exact same remaining picks - leea-1334 has only Roma game different than us.

I saw LFC_Bitcoin asking about a live table, but I guess you found it already, because you deleted your post. If not, here is the link to the public table, which I usually update throughout the day: MM Week 49

My record in here gets worse and worse The 1-0 was a deflected shot, pretty bad luck for Mainz. Being 0-1 down in Bielefeld is not easy then.....but as I said, if they only score one, Mainz won't lose this. Problem is, Bielefeld scored two^^

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Super uneventful 30-40 minutes in the second half everywhere, only one goal scored from minute 56 till the end Dortmund kind of disappointed again; it's still pretty entertaining to watch them, but they are poor in creating goal scoring opportunities. I guess not even Haaland could have helped them today, but Moukoko is really super promising. With some more games under his belt, this dude will shine.

And what happened to Wolfsburgs defense ? They conceded 5 goals in first 8 matches and now another 5 in only two matches against Bremen/Köln. They have been scoring a lot as well, but it's pretty unusual for them.

The margin/vig is the same all the time, at least for certain leagues/sports. So you will always have these 107.xx% in EPL and probably in the other big leagues at Sportsbet. For niche/smalller leagues and sports it might be higher, since these markets are more risky for the bookmakers, so they want to have some extra protection. And in outright markets, you generally have lots of vig, because it's harder for the bookmakers to balance their books. In US sports otoh bookies tend to have quite low vig, since these are generally super perfect markets, so not very risky to work with small margins and you get a lot of action, so easy to balance your book.

The odds are further apart, because when you give Tottenham 73.53% (instead of 68.49% for Chelsea) there is less % to distribute on the other outcomes (draw/Antwerp). And the lower the probability, the higher the odds.

1-1 FT, half won, better than half half lost A bit annoying, since the equalizer from Jiangsu was an own goal, but well. To my surprise there is actually a second leg for this one, so I had some wrong information here; chinese sports never fails to surprise.


Iniesta plays in Kobe/Japan.

99% of players go there to have a last big contract and this is often the biggest contract they ever got in their whole career Money is no problem in China - and as it seems in Japan not as well, since Iniesta is said to earn 30mln p.a. there - and thus even average players for european standards can earn tons of money there. I remember when Sandro Wagner (no top player by no means) went to Tianjin from Bayern Munich and basically tripling or even quadrupling his salary. And he was very honest with it and said it was a financially driven decision.

I guess no player goes there for the challenge, at least not for the football-ish one. But there are maybe some who like the challenge of living in a very different country, getting to know another culture, other people and a completely new lifestyle. And they are getting well paid for this adventure

Here is a little article and overview about what the very top players earn in China. Please notice that this is weekly salary


Source: https://financefootball.com/2020/05/03/top-highest-paid-football-players-in-china-2020/

And on top of that they get VIP treatment as well. Like cars, houses/flats.....