🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[wheelz1200]

I wonder if Cam is having one of the worst seasons for a starting QB with his 9 INT and 4TD and his spectacular ratio of 0.44 TD per INT.

Carson Wentz this season:

-15 INT (most in the NFL)
-46 sacks (most in the NFL)
-95 off-target incompletions (most in the NFL)

source: https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1333634903305572352

Ravens@Steelers

Postponed i don't how many times already, Ravens with missing players at all positions and a spread currently valued @ +10.5, which i'm not feeling they can cover but at the same time i don't trust Steelers can blow them out...totally passing on this one. Ravens have to be with RG III at QB, funny last time he started for BAL it was last year in week 17 vs. Steelers and got the dub, not happening today though.

Have a small bet just for the sake of it:

Roethlisberger 1+ pass TD + McFarland 15+ rush yards + Ravens U24.5 pts total odds 1.80 edit 6 yards short
Big Ben is very likely getting more than 2 but i'm playing it safe, no Conner for PIT, so it's going to be Benny Snell and the rookie McFarland, i can't see Ravens scoring more than 17pts today.

Seahawks ml + Wentz 1 pass TD + Metcalf Anytime score + Goedert 25 receiving yards total odds 3.68

I can't believe this did not hit, you will hardly ever see someone get 177 receiving yards and not score a TD, and that stop at the 1-yard line, my god.  

Yeah wenz is definately having a terrible season for sure.  His Oline isn't giving him any help.  I don't knwo the stat but I wonder the average time in the pocket he has.  That was Eliannings issue at the end of his career, the giants online was putrid and Eli never had more than a second before he had to bail on the play.  Either way wentz isn't helping himself either.

[xxjumperxx]

Wow them Steelers sure did have a hard time yesterday beating them Ravens...
I was so back and forth on that game that I decided not to bet on it, and well lose my money on NCAAB

Steelers were very rusty looking and to top it all of that 4th Quarter 70 Yd pass to Marquise Brown to put that Dagger into that Steelers Spread...
3 Minutes before end and its the typical Spread Destroyer play... 

[wheelz1200]

Wow them Steelers sure did have a hard time yesterday beating them Ravens...
I was so back and forth on that game that I decided not to bet on it, and well lose my money on NCAAB

Steelers were very rusty looking and to top it all of that 4th Quarter 70 Yd pass to Marquise Brown to put that Dagger into that Steelers Spread...
3 Minutes before end and its the typical Spread Destroyer play... 

Yeah but nothing beats that monday night eagles back breaker on the spread.  Seattle up 14 with about a minute to go and favored by 6.5, no way they lose on the spread....then eagles desperation drive and for some wierd reason they went for 2 pts instead of extra point and made it only losing by 6.  I read someone lost $500k on that play.  That was one of the worst bad beats of the year

[bbc.reporter]

NFL experts! What are your analysis on the Bills versus San Francisco? Why is the odds beginning to favor San Francisco when they are not playing in their home stadium and they do not yet have Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury?

I want to bet on the Bills but I will wait for everyone's advice hehe.

[tyKiwanuka]

Why is the odds beginning to favor San Francisco when they are not playing in their home stadium and they do not yet have Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury?

Probably some uncertainty about Allens ankle, which he injured a bit against the Chargers; he looked fine the rest of the game though. Adrenaline always helps in such a situation, the severity of the injury you only realize the day(s) after. It's said to be not bad, but you never know (what other punters know^^).

Main reason though is imo the 49ers getting more healthy on defense and this showed already in the Rams game. Offensively they are still struggling, but if their defense clicks, it's always hard to beat them. Bills are still a bit overrated and/or not super convincing, so with a FF or INT here and there, the odds look ok-ish to me.

[nutildah]

Gonna take Miami at -10.5 this week for 1.98x, which I think is a good deal. I tend to do a little bit better toward the end of the season because teams that are really fighting for wins to get into the playoffs have more of an incentive to get extra points than those who have no chance. Additionally, if they tend to cover in the past, that trend should continue into the playoffs, is my rationale.

I also like Washington Football Team to finally hand Pittsburgh a loss. I was going to place one bet on Washington with the spread and a smaller one on Was. to win outright, but its not listed at my sportsbook of choice, at least not at the moment.

[ralle14]

Picking the Titans handicap (-4) for this week it opened at -6.5 now it's down to -4 might go down even more before kickoff. Expecting they'll win by at least 6 or more since the Browns nearly lost to the Jags.

For my survivor picks i'm going for a safe play and burn the Chiefs as they'll face the Broncos later today. I'm getting nervous heading in to the last four weeks it seems way to easy.

[morvillz7z]

My 'what could go wrong' 6 team parlay backing the favorites to win, i just don't see any major upsets happening today, but that's not how it usually works. lol

Redemption ticket features Colts and Bears to cover ^{(edit/update, ahh dammit, misclick instead of Bears spread i've pressed on Lions ml haha i'm an idiot, let's go Detroit  )} , Trubisky sucks but Lions just have fired their HC, Colts got trashed last week, they absolutely need the win here vs. awful Houston defense.

Also have the Chargers/Saints moneylines + Raiders to cover, Carr hasn't had a good game as of late, and Jets have to stay on the right path of losing.

I'm confident at least one of those three will come through for me...and yeah gl, everyone!  

[tyKiwanuka]

'what could go wrong' 6 team parlay

Apart from the obvious one, i.e. the Colts, I could imagine the Jets pulling an upset. NYJ odds are super low imo, since I don't think they even want to win, so something fishy going on there. Maybe it's because the Raiders are usually poor in early games at the east coast. If the odds were higher, I would probably try my luck, but around 4-ish isn't enough for me, I would want 8.

I am not very inspired in general today. Was staring at the odds for quite some time, without finding anything to bet on with confidence. So will just play Titans ML and the over 51.0 in Vikings game to not get too bored. And maybe a little bit of Cardinals ML later, although the H2H looks horrible for them.

[Hueristic]

Picking the Titans handicap (-4) for this week it opened at -6.5 now it's down to -4 might go down even more before kickoff. Expecting they'll win by at least 6 or more since the Browns nearly lost to the Jags.

For my survivor picks i'm going for a safe play and burn the Chiefs as they'll face the Broncos later today. I'm getting nervous heading in to the last four weeks it seems way to easy.

Careful, Denver has a QB this week!

There needs to be a straight up odds on whether the Steelers will get rescheduled every week!

[nutildah]

My 'what could go wrong' 6 team parlay backing the favorites to win, i just don't see any major upsets happening today, but that's not how it usually works. lol

Yikes, that's really balls to the wall there and I wish you good luck. That's the thing about upsets: nobody sees them coming! Maybe we're due for a week of few upsets for once.

There needs to be a straight up odds on whether the Steelers will get rescheduled every week!

Did it get moved from today to Monday or what happened? Whatever happened explains why I couldn't find the odds last night. It's up there now though: line looks to be about Steelers -6.5. The Washington ML for this game is ~3.45x, which I think would make for an exciting bet. This is one upset I'd like to see happen: the team without a name defeats the only undefeated team.

If I win today's game (Miami needs 2 more points or 4 more yards and I'll be up) I'm gonna put a little on Was. ML.

[morvillz7z]

Apart from the obvious one, i.e. the Colts, I could imagine the Jets pulling an upset.

Man, i'm dodging bullets like Keanu lol, you almost called both upsets, nice. I really didn't see it being so close.
Jets are indeed going for that 0-16 record, Colts were so close of losing themselves, and the Vikings barely won in OT vs. mighty M. Glennon and the Jags.

Yikes, that's really balls to the wall there and I wish you good luck.

Thanks, nothing has gone wrong yet, we are still alive and kicking, all i need is Wentz and Giants backup QB to throw a few interceptions each.

Redemption ticket features Colts and Bears to cover ^{(edit/update, ahh dammit, misclick instead of Bears spread i've pressed on Lions ml haha i'm an idiot, let's go Detroit  )} , Trubisky sucks but Lions just have fired their HC, Colts got trashed last week, they absolutely need the win here vs. awful Houston defense.

I've never won a misclick bet before, but i will take it. hehe  

edit;

I placed a bet on the Giants at HT, so SEA win at least should be safe

Good one! Who would've thought that Seattle will lose at home vs. Colt McCoy haha, no TDs for Metcalf/Lockett is total bs.

[tyKiwanuka]

Jets are indeed going for that 0-16 record, (...)

We had this discussion the other week about players tanking, being told to tank by the coaches, GM's etc. And if you watch the last TD-play from the Raiders, it's crystal clear that the Jets didn't want to win this one.

3rd & 10 on the NYJ46, 13 sec left, no TO left for LV. Here you normally play my beloved prevent defense (and it makes sense there), cover the sidelines and allow plays through the middle, secondary stands deep-ish. What do the Jets do ? They send 7 in a low-effort blitz and even have the safety spying on Carr - as if he would or even could run 46 yards All 3 CB's had to play man-to-man et voilá the hail mary found its target.

Thanks, nothing has gone wrong yet, we are still alive and kicking, all i need is Wentz and Giants backup QB to throw a few interceptions each.

I placed a bet on the Giants at HT, so SEA win at least should be safe

I've never won a misclick bet before, but i will take it. hehe 

During losing runs I often had the idea of just doing my normal analyses and then just bet against them. But never had the guts to go through with it in the end

[suchmoon]

Did it get moved from today to Monday or what happened? Whatever happened explains why I couldn't find the odds last night. It's up there now though: line looks to be about Steelers -6.5. The Washington ML for this game is ~3.45x, which I think would make for an exciting bet. This is one upset I'd like to see happen: the team without a name defeats the only undefeated team.

The way they've been playing recently it's bound to happen sooner rather than later. I'm not much of a football fan but there was nothing else to watch last Wednesday when Steelers barely beat Ravens B-team... they would have lost against any team with an actual quarterback.

OTOH it was like 5th undeserved win they got this season so what do I know.

The Washington game is Monday.

[DireWolfM14]

Did it get moved from today to Monday or what happened? Whatever happened explains why I couldn't find the odds last night. It's up there now though: line looks to be about Steelers -6.5. The Washington ML for this game is ~3.45x, which I think would make for an exciting bet. This is one upset I'd like to see happen: the team without a name defeats the only undefeated team.

The way they've been playing recently it's bound to happen sooner rather than later. I'm not much of a football fan but there was nothing else to watch last Wednesday when Steelers barely beat Ravens B-team... they would have lost against any team with an actual quarterback.

OTOH it was like 5th undeserved win they got this season so what do I know.

The Washington game is Monday.

I like Washington in this game, I'm actually surprised to find the odds so high against them.  Their defense is stout, and now they finally have a real quarterback.  And like you said, the Steelers looked off last week.  I believe the Steelers have been skating by on an easy schedule.  This year's NFC adversaries are the East, and the south for the AFC.  Not the toughest divisions.  The only team with a winning record they've beaten by more than 7 points was Cleveland in week 6.

[nutildah]

I like Washington in this game, I'm actually surprised to find the odds so high against them.  Their defense is stout, and now they finally have a real quarterback.  And like you said, the Steelers looked off last week.  I believe the Steelers have been skating by on an easy schedule.  This year's NFC adversaries are the East, and the south for the AFC.  Not the toughest divisions.  The only team with a winning record they've beaten by more than 7 points was Cleveland in week 6.

Washington's last couple wins were from opponents that were more or less pushovers, but they really ran up the score big last time and seem to be on a hot streak. Which is what Pittsburgh's been on all year long. But I just feel like Washington needs this one while Pittsburgh doesn't, although I'm sure they want to keep their streak in tact, of course.

I put a bet in on Washington to win the ML, and a bigger bet to cover @ +6.5 (in retrospect I should have gone with +7). So if they just cover then I'll still be up a little, we'll see.

[bbc.reporter]

Did sportsbet.io presently remove the betting for quarterback passing yards? I made a bet on this maybe only 2 weeks ago.

In any case, there are many injuries for San Francisco. The passing yards for Josh Allen might be good for over?

[xxjumperxx]

Wow terrible day for me yesterday...
I missed the early games, so I bet on some of the late games... I should have probbaly missed them as well...

Seattle losing to the Giants... to the GIANTS! 

Then I thought, Hey the Chiefs have been on a roll, they should cover the -6.5 at Half against the Broncoss... NOPE.

Chargers getting shutout, Jets losing to that Hail Mary in the very last second (Tank mode still in full mode).

Crazy day of NFL.

[DireWolfM14]

Jets losing to that Hail Mary in the very last second

That one really bugged me.  I put a small wager on the Jets in the early 4th, and was counting my winnings with less than two minutes left.  All they needed was one first down, just ONE FIRST DOWN!  Ugh!

The Chiefs game really surprised me, I really didn't expect the Denver defense to make Patrick Mahomes' life so difficult.  

[ralle14]

I'm also taking Washington later i've bought some points and pushed the spread to +7.5 . Confident in them to keep it close since half of the Steelers home matches came down to a single possession while the other half that ended in blowouts are against weaker teams like the Bengals and Jags.

Seattle losing to the Giants... to the GIANTS!  

This was one of the big upsets this week I nearly took them in my survivor pool too luckily I decided to avoid them knowing the Seattle's defense isn't that great. Now i'm having second thoughts about their match next week against the Jets.

Edit : Wow, what an upset by Washington.