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3441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 11:21:34 PM
Oh for fuck's sake:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/investing/fed-junk-bonds-etfs-debt/index.html

No, there are no longer any consequences for bad actions, and the government will underwrite any risk you take. Why not?

Like a kid, the only thing that I wanted to ask after reading this cnn article was: "...and then?"
There was no answer, obviously.
3442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 10:47:04 PM
3 trillion here, 3 trillion there

pretty soon...something something


profit?
Kind of interesting actually. At a certain point there simply are no consequences for the worst behavior. Almost as if you had a rich daddy giving you everything.

I have a different question. Why is it working? I don't see anybody objecting, really.
In Japan they were at it for 20 years or so. Did not stimulate much, but did not hyperinflate anything either.
Sending numbers from one ledger to another.
Some people now suggest DEEP negative rates.
Now, that, I think, could be dangerous.
3443  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 10:35:07 PM
It’s not a secular bear market.  Its a secular bull market with a local top.  It’s unreasonable to expect the price to continue to go up as the halvening hype fades. And it will take some time for the supply side constraints to start to bite. 

That may be so, but you've got to say it, boyo,...what's the [local] number?
I gave mine already.
3444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 06:32:44 PM
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1257344002531241984

Quote
If we forget the noise of monthly prices, and focus on the signal of 12-months moving average .. we are at ATH. That is the big picture. Nice set-up for the halving.

Never heard about a 12 mo moving average, but....OK.
...Introducing a 520 wk moving average...We are way above that one.

Mind you, I am still bullish, but planB keeps coming up with something that is tangential at this point.
I understand that he is nervous on whether his models would work or not. It's nail-biting time.
3445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 04:36:55 PM
Bitcoin is in the tenth year of a secular bull market.
The liquid market with rational price discovery began in 2010.


If it is so, man, I don't want to see a secular bear around here.
3446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 04:19:07 PM
According to this chart the past 2 halvings have been followed soon after by an insignificant dip. Insignificant long term but at the time felt like a letdown due to the hope that the price would rise right after the halving. There was a jump right after the first halving due to the scare that the halving would cause the end of Bitcoin due to miners stopping mining. When they didn't stop the price jumped a little. Before easing back down. I remember selling about 400 bitcoins after that quick jump to $12 (all the bitcoins I owned).



This graph has data only until March 20, but if it had current data, then it would look even more similar to 2016, projecting either a small further runup (maybe to 10K) or not, followed by a 1000-1500 points dip post halving to the 7000-8500 band.
3447  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 01:41:06 AM
declining...8699 8719.

Why always on Sunday night? Darned stock futures and Asia trading, perhaps.
3448  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2020, 12:47:59 AM
9mm seems the most reasonable out of the small ones, no?

I mean if you are using it for home defense or maybe self defense (or maybe wanting to be a hero in some mass shooting situation?)
Home defense = 12 gauge shotgun IMO. Handguns are too damn erratic and bullets go all sorts of places. Shotgun is a nice solid can't miss pattern, 8 buckshot pellets are devastating at close range, and if you get a semi automatic shotgun it's a point and click interface.

I will ponder a 12 gauge as a supplement, but in terms of hitting a virus.. maybe a 12 gauge could hit a virus a bit better than a 9 mm, too?

this does not compute...message error...message error...
...I have to undergo an unscheduled reboot.
Cogito ergo sum
Just what do you think you are doing, Dave?
Daveuabwbibohvxkqmkhlhl
<melting sounds>

EDIT: this device calculates that we already passed Vegeta at least 20 times (if you count both directions). Hoping that 21st would be IT.
3449  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] T17e, new price on: May 03, 2020, 11:39:55 PM
bump

with a bit lower price
3450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 09:53:55 PM


Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach...

Is it the fat or what?

Yes it is.
When I was younger I was a scrawny little thing and I was always cold. After my arthritis hindered me from exercising I got more like Mark and now I'm always hot, I wear t-shirts way in to the end of fall.

'tis simple math: body surface area is proportional to r^2, volume is proportional to r^3.
Your body size (volume) increases faster than surface area, hence more difficult to dissipate body heat (from the surface).
BTW, exactly the same for me now vs young me...wifey is making fun of my propensity to be in shorts until November.

I remember as a child stepping on a apparent ground nest of either large wild bees or hornets deep in the woods, then I saw them crawling outta there and starting to get airborne.
I ran like a wind...and escaped. It only takes a few dozen bites to bring you down, I think.
Years ago I was working in the yard sucking leaves with my leaf vacuum. Heard a buzzing and realized I hit a yellow jacket nest in the ground. As they started to come up I thought about running then realized who I was: Top predator. So I started sucking them up and put the nozzle over their nest hole. The noises made by the impeller in the next few minutes were.... interesting but when it stopped there was not a yellow jacket to be seen and I had a quiet summer.....


The silent spring....
...now we know why insects are dropping in ##..too many gd leaf vacuums..

I kid, I kid.
3451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 07:48:00 PM
Im just waiting to scalp longs at the second halving happens

What does that mean?

Let me speculate.  It means that you are planning to sell BTC in the near future because you are expecting a kind of upward BTC price movement and then waiting for some kind of BTC price correction in order that you can buy back (and presumably get more BTC)?

By the way, we are coming upon our third BTC halvening in 8-9 days... the second BTC halvening was in July 2016. You know that, right?

he is saying that he would short into inevitable correction (the very second the halving happens)..well, Mr Market likes to play with those who are cock-sure.
3452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 07:02:54 PM
re Buffett...

1. Is there a job requirement for the successor to have similarly raspy voice..that dude (Abel) is probably in his late fifties.
2. You just know that once in control, he will allocate hundreds of millions to himself as a salary...and if not him, then his successor.
3. Under performance of BRK-A for the next 20 years is inevitable. It is probably a nice short or at least an arb with SP500.

Short BRK, long btc might also work splendidly aka using BRK basically to finance btc long. Not as good as USO short in the last 12 years, but...
3453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 06:04:27 PM
OMG I just cooked the most amazing lasagne.


Send me some over Zoom, please...no, Zoom cannot do it yet?  Cool

[some relatives are engaged in showing their live meals over that app....too much family interaction for my taste]




^^^you can't breeze through the skin, LOL...self-circumcision gone bad.
3454  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 05:52:38 PM
To protect the Bees you need a Metal Housing, the Hornets will not penetrate that. + When you see that Giant ass Hornet , pick up a Tennis Racket and play some Hornet Tennis  Grin

Hornets remember   Wink

Dead hornets won't  Cheesy

they still have their alive buddies, don't they?

I remember as a child stepping on a apparent ground nest of either large wild bees or hornets deep in the woods, then I saw them crawling outta there and starting to get airborne.
I ran like a wind...and escaped. It only takes a few dozen bites to bring you down, I think.
3455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 05:44:56 PM
To protect the Bees you need a Metal Housing, the Hornets will not penetrate that. + When you see that Giant ass Hornet , pick up a Tennis Racket and play some Hornet Tennis  Grin

Hornets remember   Wink
3456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 05:38:51 PM
Clean and simple

Support and resistance zones from the 0.236 to the 0.618 long fibs. Working between the 0.382 and the 0.5 seems like its right where we outta be. #dyor

4h

#stronghands


Scenario: down to the dashed line, up to the dotted line...beats the reverse, IMHO.
What are our chances @Toxic2040? Most probable scenario?
3457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2020, 12:24:11 AM
maybe will buy a chunk of btc...just in case it catches on.


FTFY


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

not sure that underline is enough to distinguish YOUR speech from mine.  Angry

that said, @HM chart suggests a move to 7.5-7.6K post-halving. Only one of the possibilities.
Maybe we will pop to 10-11K before backing down to 8.5-9K instead.
However, I started not to care...due to the virus scare.
3458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 07:38:17 PM
<incorrect quote deleted>
Interesting thought: I could rig the flamethrower to shoot a 5 foot burst. That could work really well if I had to travel to say Florida: I was both following the law, enforcing the law, and standing my ground.

Hm......

hey, No fair!
Those are NOT my words in the quote..they are jojo's  Roll Eyes.
3459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 07:23:08 PM
The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do?

rifle butt to the face

then put the boots to 'em




this is why I don't go out...on advise of council

OK..I need to start wearing them boots  Grin
3460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2020, 07:12:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LqaotiGWjQ The War on Sensemaking, Daniel Schmachtenberger
Quote
What can we trust? Why is the 'information ecology' so damaged, and what would it take to make it healthy?

Rabbit hole stuff. To be clear, finding it pretty hard going.
What's wrong with blogs people? or even books? You're so clever, write stuff down.

That requires the ability and intent to read, which is, sadly, becoming more rare these days.
Now, it's also the f-g Zoom.
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