Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wekkel]

I'd go for a XPS13.

Still best of the pack.

[OutOfMemory]

That means nuttin.
Which manufacturer?
Mind to share the disk sector size and count, too?    

And did you already patch and configure the firmware?

Nothing too exciting. It was a WD My Book Duo with two 14 TB reds. They were immediately whipped out and rammed into me NAS. It's now being refilled with my real time rail journey videos. I tend to point the camera towards the carpet as the changing light and the sound of the train, plus passenger coughing, lulls me to sleep.

I stuck to WD once Seagate got shit and Maxtor kept producing increasing numbers of drives that died after a few years.
Sadly, i only could get WD Greens for my NAS, but i configured them to head parking / energy saving plans of Blues. Otherwise they also won't have lived too long in a NAS that gets used on a daily basis.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is in the tenth year of a secular bull market.
The liquid market with rational price discovery began in 2010.

If it is so, man, I don't want to see a secular bear around here.

It's a crazy-ass word choice.

Secular.

What the fuck is "secular" in this context?  

Just on the face of it, "secular" does not seem descriptive of what is actually happening in bitcoin, especially if we attempt to bitcoin from its beginnings and therefore even ascribing the beginning of its market as 10-years.. but probably more accurate than using 11 years or 11.5 years because bitcoin did not even really have a price for a bit over a year after it was already in existence in terms of being mined, and then the next year (during 2010), it was very budding and niche in terms of its finding a niche amongst very early nerds and perhaps finding some initial prices, without hardly any spread amongst the population (or regular peeps).

Even right now, many of us, including yours truly, speculate regarding so many people in the world not knowing what the fuck is bitcoin, in its first couple of years, the group of people kind of knowing what bitcoin was or might be was even smaller - and bitcoin was way the hell less, including largely networkless nerd speculation... and probably we have to go at least two years after its inception and beginning to mine before we can even come close to trying to ascribe any kinds of asset qualities to it.. which might then be attempted to be considered with the use of market / trading language terms.

[JayJuanGee]

I hope you never change, Jay.

You forgot to put #nohomo.


 on purpose??..??..??




 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

9000 getting close.

Come on Vegeta, you can do it!

[JayJuanGee]

Zoom the fuck out, ToxicMoxic!!!

D




----
M

strong hands

I will concede that Rome was not built in a day.

[Toxic2040]

Will we Vegeta short time frame-ish??

         YES                 NO

[jojo69]

3 trillion here, 3 trillion there

pretty soon...something something


profit?

[HairyMaclairy]

It’s not a secular bear market.  Its a secular bull market with a local top.  It’s unreasonable to expect the price to continue to go up as the halvening hype fades. And it will take some time for the supply side constraints to start to bite. 

[Biodom]

It’s not a secular bear market.  Its a secular bull market with a local top.  It’s unreasonable to expect the price to continue to go up as the halvening hype fades. And it will take some time for the supply side constraints to start to bite. 

That may be so, but you've got to say it, boyo,...what's the [local] number?
I gave mine already.

[lightfoot]

3 trillion here, 3 trillion there

pretty soon...something something


profit?

Kind of interesting actually. At a certain point there simply are no consequences for the worst behavior. Almost as if you had a rich daddy giving you everything.

Speaking of which looks like people are starting to shoot others over wearing masks. Yep, it's worth someone ELSE dying over.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/security-guards-death-might-have-been-because-he-wouldnt-let-woman-store-without-mask/

[P_Shep]

That means nuttin.
Which manufacturer?
Mind to share the disk sector size and count, too?    

And did you already patch and configure the firmware?

Nothing too exciting. It was a WD My Book Duo with two 14 TB reds. They were immediately whipped out and rammed into me NAS. It's now being refilled with my real time rail journey videos. I tend to point the camera towards the carpet as the changing light and the sound of the train, plus passenger coughing, lulls me to sleep.

Neat hack there. 2 WD Reds for pretty much the price of a single!

[Biodom]

3 trillion here, 3 trillion there

pretty soon...something something


profit?

Kind of interesting actually. At a certain point there simply are no consequences for the worst behavior. Almost as if you had a rich daddy giving you everything.

I have a different question. Why is it working? I don't see anybody objecting, really.
In Japan they were at it for 20 years or so. Did not stimulate much, but did not hyperinflate anything either.
Sending numbers from one ledger to another.
Some people now suggest DEEP negative rates.
Now, that, I think, could be dangerous.

[gentlemand]

Neat hack there. 2 WD Reds for pretty much the price of a single!

Yes. And they pop straight out and they're official reds. Shucking the Elements disks often comes in a little cheaper but they're relabelled reds so might be ones that didn't quite cut it. I read that WD have been sneaking SMR into their smaller capacity reds but left the big 'uns alone. Luckily I'm a size queen.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1257344002531241984

If we forget the noise of monthly prices, and focus on the signal of 12-months moving average .. we are at ATH. That is the big picture. Nice set-up for the halving.

Never heard about a 12 mo moving average, but....OK.
...Introducing a 520 wk moving average...We are way above that one.

Mind you, I am still bullish, but planB keeps coming up with something that is tangential at this point.
I understand that he is nervous on whether his models would work or not. It's nail-biting time.

I think that PlanB is just active in posting, and engaging about the bitcoin topic in a variety of ways that are largely helpful to educating people about bitcoin, and probably he has a goal of bringing people into bitcoin based on seemingly strong fundamentals.

Being bullish, giddy and excited about bitcoin is not the same as being nervous.

The BTC price would have to go way the fuck out of wack for such Plan B's model to not be helpful and informative in a variety of ways, such as even contributing to understanding whether the model is broken or if it needs to be tweaked (or just thrown completely out).   It is way too early to even consider that Plan B's model might be broken in some kind of way, and so the fuck what, if it is?  I mean, yeah, let's say that fiat money printers spend a trillion or more into just dumping on bitcoin on an ongoing basis (yeah as if that is going to happen?) and then BTC prices stay down in the sub $1ks for months or years, then maybe we might start to consider that there is something wrong with Plan B's model, and would we throw it out, or would we just have to tweak the model in order to account for a kind of unexpected exogenous occurrence?

[HairyMaclairy]

It’s not a secular bear market.  Its a secular bull market with a local top.  It’s unreasonable to expect the price to continue to go up as the halvening hype fades. And it will take some time for the supply side constraints to start to bite.  

That may be so, but you've got to say it, boyo,...what's the [local] number?
I gave mine already.

Local top? 9.4k

Local bottom to follow?  I dunno.  I think it’s fair to say that Trump will move heaven and earth to keep the US stock market awash with liquidity between now and November.  That means lots of hot money washing around, some of which will invariably end up in Bitcoin.

Volatility will remain high so have set out some staged low ball limit orders and will see what fish get landed.   If I am wrong and the price happens to just go straight up from here, that would be fabulous.

[lightfoot]

Oh for fuck's sake:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/investing/fed-junk-bonds-etfs-debt/index.html

No, there are no longer any consequences for bad actions, and the government will underwrite any risk you take. Why not?

[JayJuanGee]

It’s not a secular bear market.  Its a secular bull market with a local top.  It’s unreasonable to expect the price to continue to go up as the halvening hype fades. And it will take some time for the supply side constraints to start to bite.  

That explains everything.  

Buying support is not keeping up.  

Unsustainable.... etc etc..  

Hopefully, you are not leaning too much on that theory - just in case.

Edit:
I see that you, hairybairie, largely answered my last question (regarding your preparedness for either BTC price direction) in your above post (two posts above this one).

[Biodom]

Oh for fuck's sake:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/investing/fed-junk-bonds-etfs-debt/index.html

No, there are no longer any consequences for bad actions, and the government will underwrite any risk you take. Why not?

Like a kid, the only thing that I wanted to ask after reading this cnn article was: "...and then?"
There was no answer, obviously.

[JimboToronto]

I took delivery of 28 TB of spinning hardness today. Nothing gets my watery sap rising more than quality storage these days.

2nd millennium mechanical storage? How about magnetic tape and paper punch cards?

Do you also use vacuum tubes (Eccles-Jordan bistable multivibrator circuitry) and revolving drum memory?

SSDs have been around for over 40 years, mainstream for 20, consumer/retail for well over a decade.

I concede that mechanical HDDs have some archival value but they're so slow and so fragile.

I guess they're cheap though. You get what you pay for.