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Here is a real life situation for you...
Was standing in front of a window to deposit something (came out for the first time in a few days, apart from walking around)
The 'tard to the left (not a protestor) had his mask hanging at his belt while loudly proclaiming something...
I had some cheap mask on (as the pic said, potentially just 30% protection).
Did not pay much attention...but today have scratchy throat..took some vits, we shall see.
The question is: if someone mouth something close to you while having no PPE, what to do? Do I politely tell him to STFU, or do I tell him/her to move away or be silent (if retreat is not possible).
Or do i simply think positive thoughts?
Choices, choices.
Another choice are homeless, which are dime and dozen at the intersections.
As we know, at least half of them are infected.
Do I help a fellow man in a calamity or do I drive away, windows closed, AC turned on inside only?
What a bummer.
maybe will buy a chunk of btc...just in case.
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I sent you a PM...
re-read your PM |
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That is called speculating. Yet people like marcus keep presenting "second wave of covid-19" as a sure thing, that's coming 100%. When it should be treated as a wild speculation. When it's just a hypothesis with no scientific evidence to back it up.
Now, who is exaggerating? People study these kinds of things, so yes there is science... but whether you believe the science is credible or adequately backed by facts and logic might be another question, but asserting that there is "NO" science is inaccurate. People study other viruses, but for covid-19 specifically there is no science on the "second wave". Not a single country is experiencing "second wave" right now, despite very different lockdown policies. Enough time passed since the first peak. Honestly anyone who is still on about millions+ of people dying from this Covid-19 "plandemic", or a "second wave" of massive # deaths, needs to rightly STFU. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/Provisional-Death-Counts-COVID-19-Pneumonia-and-Influenza.pdfCDC U.S. death prediction: ~480,000 Actual U.S. deaths to date: 11,356 (btw pneumonia/flu killed 5X as many during the same period) ...and to think that they shut the whole fkn world economy down for this.  The high number would be probably shown as incorrect in the end, but the low number does not seem credible, or rather your interpretation of the table is iffy (the table does not say what you think it says). Why? Because that number would not compute in comparison with the european ##. It's just not realistic to say that there is no impact. |
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my interests in talking about:
ideas>>events>>people
on the "stahs" market: finally, some proper thinking is taking hold and a major "fake" TSLA is finally cooling down to 701 from 880.
btc is disconnecting for now, which is GREAT!
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The market is so freaking dumb right now, so I am not sure if it is pure giddiness, but would not be surprised if some economic number would really stink tomorrow and "stahs" reverse, pulling down btc as well. These were 2k out of 'nothing'. We shall see if it holds or not. I give it 50:50, but @Marcus could be right about a trap.
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Bump, new (lower) price.
Bitmain is increasing prices (don't forget to add the shipment and the tariff on the whole order sum)...
...I don't (yet).
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Enjoying it, but outside of bitcoin, almost EVERYTHING is fake. I am long the market, mind you, but it does not present a believable picture.
fake #1 GOOGL earnings
fake #2 FB earnings
and the most egregious
fake #3 TSLA earnings...reported some tiny stupid profit with current minuscule demand and NO production (in US), jumped to even more ridiculous number.
BTW, I am not short TSLA (or other two) since this stock is insane.
Why I call it fake? because all those numbers are backward looking while stocks supposed to be forward looking.
Well, with 50% jobs being affected (currently) worldwide, what kind of earnings would there be in 3-6 mo or later in 2021?
Half of 2019?
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....(risk/reward ratio is through the roof compared to bitcoin).
That’s where Maximalists are going to miss out. Big Time. I am getting ready to draw the line... the denigration of maximalist is getting close to a step too far... I can feel the anger building up... Watch out, if you happen to be a pencil:  Don't get in my path!!!!!!  me?  Mindrust  Makes me feel sad. I am back to my roots. Win small but risk small. No. Win or lose. If you are going to win, might as well win big. If you are going to lose, better not to lose anything. It is, ultimately, a choice. Are you a winner or loser? I'm kind of thinking in the same terms. Win big, replace the wife with a harem of sluts, and live on a yacht. Or lose, and work at McDonald's until I drop dead, face first into the fryer, at age 83. BTW, j/k about the yacht. ...not kidding about the wife, I see  win/lose depends on a personal situation re shitcoins-I agree with @Wekkel. You spend very little on them, you ride them into the bull and if you are smart, you sell when they go 10-100X and then you use the resulting fiat for consumption or wait a bit (if sold at the peak) and re-invest into btc. Easier said than done, but if you invest just 1% of your btc value, then it is all just 'change' either way. Wait a minute: Shitcoins are good?  good-bad is a wrong axis. Short term profitable with a very small % of investment. Why not? That said, I thought that you admit to having some shitcoins, DIDN'T YA? |
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Goldman’s Chilling S&P 500 Crash Prediction Makes Bitcoin Vulnerable in Mid-2020According to the firm, the major US stock index will eventually retest 2400 points around mid-year before a stronger rally back to nearly 3000 points takes place. However, due to Bitcoin‘s continued correlation with the S&P 500, not only could this point to another stock market collapse but another epic crash in the cryptocurrency market. https://bitcoinist.com/goldmans-chilling-sp-500-crash-prediction-makes-bitcoin-vulnerable-in-mid-2020/By then the decoupling will be complete. Are you suggesting, VB1001, that Goldman is coming off as a bit desperate in their lame-ass bitcoin doom and gloom correlation assertions? Goldman did not say anything about btc, that's bitcoinst author's interpretation. IMHO, GS is about to start temporarily shorting the SP500 or, maybe, QQQ... 61.8% retrace and all (for SP500, more for QQQ) Very large volumes at the close today with a small dip. Someone was definitely unloading into a rally. |
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I am back to my roots. Win small but risk small. No. Win or lose. If you are going to win, might as well win big. If you are going to lose, better not to lose anything. It is, ultimately, a choice. Are you a winner or loser? I'm kind of thinking in the same terms. Win big, replace the wife with a harem of sluts, and live on a yacht. Or lose, and work at McDonald's until I drop dead, face first into the fryer, at age 83. BTW, j/k about the yacht. ...not kidding about the wife, I see win/lose depends on a personal situation re shitcoins-I agree with @Wekkel. You spend very little on them, you ride them into the bull and if you are smart, you sell when they go 10-100X and then you use the resulting fiat for consumption or wait a bit (if sold at the peak) and re-invest into btc. Easier said than done, but if you invest just 1% of your btc value, then it is all just 'change' either way. |
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Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?
is it the new scam?
You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle
You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle
They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.
I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening. Thereby possibly screwing those account holders vis-à-vis their reported taxes (for 2017). not sure about that..they were ONLY informed in 2019? (or is that not how it works) I thought it had to hit your 'address' you control in the USA anyway...no control because you did not know this existed would be my stand on this then again I may be 'naive' on this whole tax stuff Brad you are probably right, but this is more of the 'interpretation' scenario. A discusson of what 'control' means. |
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Anyone else getting weird emails from circle?
is it the new scam?
You have received 0.00056197 BTC from Circle
You have received 0.00069818 BTC from Circle
They look legit in source and links, but while I may have made an account there years back I surely never deposited that I can recall.
I just looked into it, and it appears that they are crediting for BCH and BSV based on whatever BTC balance that you would have had in your account on August 1, 2017... the snapshot time of the BCH forkening. Thereby possibly screwing those account holders vis-à-vis their reported taxes (for 2017). |
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I was thinking yesterday quite a bit...about whats going on in the world and specifically about bitcoin and its current price action. All of a sudden I had one of those moments of clarity that you strive for but so rarely come across.
I was thinking about the price correlation between bitcoin and legacy markets and all the negative economic news that will be coming down the pipe over the next 6 months as the world adjusts to post covid-19. I started to think about what if bitcoin was unable to de-couple and gets dragged down in the huge inflation crisis that is already baked into fiat and has been exacerbated by this pandemic. I wondered what my reaction would be if bitcoin fell below $5k...and kept falling...down to $3k...and maybe..maybe it got really bad...like total collapse..how would I handle it?
Thats when I had the epiphany. I realised that even if bitcoin fell down to $1k...or less...even down to $100 dollars..I would continue to do what I have been doing for the last 8 years...keep stacking sats. Then the moment became crystal clear for me..even if the price tried to go to zero..it never would. And when I say never...I mean that...bitcoins value will never be zero. If it drops down to a dollar or less...I would buy as many as I could...if it kept dropping..I would buy all of them. Yes...all the coin..I would scoop them up just to have them..just to say 'Look at me! I have all the coins now! I win!'
Now..maybe this is a character flaw...maybe Im a little bit nuts..but hand to God..in that moment of clarity..I knew it to be true...without a shadow of a doubt.
Then my keenly focused subjective reality expanded outwards...and I thought...'Well sheeeit'...there are at least 20 to 30 other crazy mofo's that I know personally who probably have the same plan. They will be trying to scoop up cheap coins by the bucket load if ever the price really tanks..its just not going to happen, I wont be able to get all of them...dammit.
The profound sense of relief that rushed through me was almost indescribable and was followed by a relaxed sense of euphoria that is still reverberating throughout my soul.
As the moment faded..more thoughts poured through my head. Out of the 8 billion people on this planet..I wondered if 21 million of us could or ever would put the value of a bitcoin at 7 figures or higher. Could there be enough other crazy ass fools out there who would pay almost anything to keep at least a million of their wealth secured by a bitcoin. I felt the answer shift from possible..to probable...and then to likely on large time scales. In terms of decades it seems almost certain...and with how things are going...maybe sooner.
Just my two sats for the day. #dyor
tc
#stronghands
That's a very good fundamental analysis. The only thing that I would say to this is that you don't really know since you are not in that situation and, hopefully, never would be. For all current disbelief, almost everyone can be in a "mindrust state" (sorry for the pun) IF the price change is catastrophic. It is somewhat easy to discuss this during a strong rally, but I know myself well. I could possibly hold to a very low number, but ONLY if I already took profits that cover my initial investment. That part in non-negotiable for me after I essentially lost a large (for me) account during the 2001-2002 crash. Bought some very speculative stocks on a small margin and as these stocks were cratering, I had to sell EVERYTHING so my account had some positive value (and not negative). That was a lesson to NEVER invest more than 20% (usually just 10%) of my portfolio in anything at ALL. 20% is a mechanical rule. I promised myself never to exceed it. In fact, when something does approach 20%, I eventually take profits so invested [$$-profit] approach 10% (or even lower) back from 20%. I do let profits run otherwise, don't care what % of the overall portfolio one item represents aka no rebalancing. The 10-20% rule only refers to the original investment. |
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Re btc, I intensely dislike the low volume smooth ascending triangle in every measure, but price.
Not going to predict btc price here, but increasing correlation of btc with the stock market is a nagging concern of mine.
Many (like JJG) think that it is very temporary and fleeting.
Maybe, but if institutional traders are the one's that drive current appreciation, than this correlation has some fundamentals.
Some stock market bears like Albert Edwards were poo-pooed for a couple of decades, but in one aspect he was right, we DID plunge into an "Ice age" condition in bonds first (with negative yields), then commodities (oil, copper, corn, sugar) just recently. The last "men" standing are equities, but he predicts that we eventually bottom up at below 2009 levels in SP500 (that is below 667)-crazy, I know, but what if he is right?. Every other long term trend this guy predicted panned out (in eventuality). After the ultimate bottom in equities, he predicts a furious equity rally together with higher inflation-thawing of the "ice age" and the start of the new "Spring". BTW, Raoul Pal posts something similar, but Edwards was at it since at least 2000 (he modeled it after the Japanese fiasco that started in 1989).
Now, the potential of an "ice age" in equities together with a stronger correlation between btc and equities is the main factor that bothers me the most.
Alternatively, could it be that strongly (and maybe even intensely) rallying bitcoin would be THE factor that brings the whole world out of the "ice age"/deflation/low activity?
Maybe, and that's the hope.
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The big question really for the long term is how much does this virus mutate ? If catching it previously is not a defence as is common with the normal cold humans get every year then we are in for a load of trouble, I imagine that road is alot longer then presently anticipated. If it is just one and done phenomena then its not quite as bad despite the unfortunate lethality ongoing at present.
The whole possibility to a second bump to the curve and how big that might be is what scares me more then the current problem, bad as it is. The longer term is the bigger worry because it cant be dodged forever, we dont know the full picture yet. Maybe we get a vaccine and this enables human populations to perfectly counter this threat just like we have bubonic plague occur naturally every year but we also understand and can counter it now, Im not wanting to presume any negative just thats my concern over the unknowns. Its also wrong to presume (imo) that its not a big deal, most will get past it just fine so whatever will be will be.
BTC approaching 200 DMA at 8000 and theres a slight stop here at 7777 which was previously seen on the early March lows. Price on 1 hour bars has kept closing above 2 day average since the 25th
Germany opened up and it seems that almost immediately R0 went from 0.7 to 1.0 I agree with the supposition that we don't have a full picture yet. One thing is for sure-we can design medicines (drugs+vaccines) against it. How long they would remain efficacious -that's another story. However, I believe that with a multibillion $ effort one of several dozens (if not more) approaches would work, at least initially. |
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A game...PlanB suggests that btc will be at around $288K somewhere between 2020 and 2024, maybe more later, but let's focus on the $288K number.
Considering that it WOULD happen, what would be the $$ amount that you might accept right now for, say, 20% of your btc without the ability to re-buy btc or other crypto again until at least 2 years later (this condition is needed for an obvious reason):
a. 30K
b. 60K
c. 100K
d. 150K
e. 288K (that would be unrealistic, but, whatever)
My choice:
c. 100K
For me, there seems to be something wrong with your hypothetical because the only limitation is that I cannot reinvest into bitcoin or other crypto for 2 years, and therefore I am locked into not buying any more of my BTC holdings for 2 years (April 27, 2022), and if I take the deal, I can shave off 20% immediately and put into dollars. So, I have 80% left. And, sure, you are trying to test our resolution and conviction in regards to our belief of the stock to flow model, but I suppose part of the unrealistic aspect is that your scenario guarantees that $288k is happening somewhere between now and 2024, but since I am surely overinvested into bitcoin, anyhow, I don't mind getting an immediate and guaranteed return, now, even at the lowest level of the options - the $30k. So, I am thinking that the flaw of the hypothetical dilemma (inspite of the seemingly guarantee of $288k in less than 5 years.. with any exact time frame) is that there are likely a lot of other people who would be willing to get the immediate return on their BTC at even a lower price because of the guaranteed immediate return... Jesus that lowest option is about 3.9x return on 20% of my BTC holdings, and immediately, and I am only locked into my sale for 2 years. I am willing to do that even the lowest amount that you provided, so I think that the dilemma that you present is not very compelling because people will chose lower amounts, and your choice of $100k just seems pie in the sky greed, or lacking in really grappling with the hypothetical that you presented. Don't get me wrong because if there is an immediate and guaranteed return of 3.9x, then I cannot see rational for NOT shaving off 20%. I don't need higher returns, especially when guaranteed in such hypothetical. Also, don't get me wrong about my eagerness to sell BTC because even though my regular BTC selling scenario sells bitcoin all the way up, it takes the BTC price to rise all the way up to $584k before my formula seems to have sold 20% of my BTC from my current stash, so even under my current projection of my BTC sell scenario, I don't reach those high of a percentage levels of BTC sales until $584k. a. $30K - 5.52% b. $60K - 8.75% c. $100K - 11.42% d. $150K - 13.3% e. $288K - 16.6% f. $584K - 20% ** By the way, you (Biodom) caused me to create a new % column in my Excel spreadsheet that shows my already existing BTC/fiat projections. That new % column seems to be a helpful thought experiment to project my current holdings and my future projections. On a fairly regular basis, once a month or sometimes more, I update those projections based on my actual BTC/fiat holdings and sometimes just trying to make the projections more realistically attached to what has been happening or what I expect to happen. The projections of my BTC/fiat holdings plan continues to be completely incremental and does not have lump sum expectations within the projections, yet it does not stop me from employing a a lump sum change amount at any time, if I believe that the terms of employing such lump sum are agreeable (or seemingly favorable to the circumstances), whether the circumstances had come from a quick rise in the BTC price or to deal with some kind of hypothetical presentation, such as the one that you just presented, Biodom.So maybe there is something wrong with me? I have no problem taking 20% off right away at $30k with a guaranteed 3.9x return from today's BTC prices (of $7,700), and then I have to tweak my otherwise BTC selling plan because if I shaved off 20% with an immediate 3.9x returns, I surely would not feel like selling more BTC until the BTC price were to go up to $50k or higher... with the stipulation that I would not be able to buy any BTC back until at least April 27, 2022 or later.... My thinking with this hypothetical remains that a bird in hand is better than two in the bush, and gosh immediate 3.9x returns seems like a great deal, even given the imposed restrictions that you provide - and probably a lot of that is due to my already feeling that I am more than overinvested in BTC... but I don't have any plans to sell BIG chunks, but if I am given an immediate return, I am willing to shave some off. Am I getting something wrong with the hypothetical, Biodom? Nothing wrong or right, I just suggested a game of hypotheticals. I sometimes run these scenarios (if ->then), mostly for amusement, but I appreciate your analysis. So far there were only two takers, though |
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I have friends asking how to convert money from their IRA to bitcoin.
Is this possible yet?
Possible, not easy. You have to open self-derected IRA, like bitcoinira.com or bitira.com, then do funds rollover, then buy btc. As far as I know, they have high annual fees. In the rest of IRAs GBTC is probably the only choice. I know, not a real bitcoin in the same way as GLD is not real gold. |
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A game...PlanB suggests that btc will be at around $288K somewhere between 2020 and 2024, maybe more later, but let's focus on the $288K number.
Considering that it WOULD happen, what would be the $$ amount that you might accept right now for, say, 20% of your btc without the ability to re-buy btc or other crypto again until at least 2 years later (this condition is needed for an obvious reason):
a. 30K
b. 60K
c. 100K
d. 150K
e. 288K (that would be unrealistic, but, whatever)
My choice:
c. 100K
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$7750
Attack on $8000?
Busy.... as the dude was for the last 40-ish minutes  High five! |
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