This is something I ponder on and off. That 1-3% figure is pretty far out. I'll bet there are people who've been reading this thread for longer than most of us have been here who've never even registered, let alone written anything. I'm sure it's easy to be intimidated by the astonishing power and paint-stripping insight of titanic intellects such as the one I happen to possess. I still think they should make themselves known. We need a lurker amnesty. Come on out. We won't hurt you. Finally, someone polite enough to invite the guy in the corner. I've been lurking since Spring 2012. AMA. 1. When did you first find out about Bitcoin and how? |
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I'm out at the site. Moored up for the evening after getting the spar anchored.  how is the bandwidth out there? We are at around 3Mbps download and 1Mbps upload with just a small pocket Wifi device. I have an antenna booster that should get that up closer to 20Mbps. The key here is distance. not bad just how far out are you? I think it’s madness. But Bitcoin is madness so why not. Watching with great interest. What did you decide to use as a tender? Can you show us some shots of the seastead now that it is in position? |
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Disagree with Realized Value being an indicator? Or some other aspect? Yes I disagree with the assumptions that underpin Realized Value. It assumes that UTXO = sale. In practice that is not the case. Coins move for a lot of reasons which have nothing to do with sellling. And coins which never leave exchanges are not counted (or perhaps more accurately, counted too often due to exchange UTXO management). To give an example, I moved all my coins to harvest Bitcoin Gold. Realized Value would treat this as a sale, applying an artificially high cost base. Basically, it is the approximation of the average price of BTC when it was last moved/bought. It's calculated going through the blockchain state, mapping all UTXO in a given day, and multiplying their value by the price of BTC on the time the block they are was created. |
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Well it enables rule breaking.
So the real question is what rules are you going to break on your seastead?
About rule breaking: interview with Bittorrent guy (4-series) “Why BitTorrent Mattered — Bittorrent Lessons for Crypto (1 of 4)” by Simon Morris https://link.medium.com/ZnJUFMOerT Pretty sure that was what Hairy was vamping on. That article has got me thinking as well. If you aren't going to break any rules...what is the fucking point. Or put another way, it is not a matter of being in trouble or not, the state encroaches on everything, but choosing the best kind of trouble to be in. That article got me thinking, too - a great new way of looking at game-changing innovation. It shifted my perspective from thinking of a use case, to looking at a use case that breaks existing rules. It made a lot of sense and the precedents to prove it are pretty obvious and convincing. Yeah that’s the article I was referencing. Great article. Has actually shaped my thinking a bit. Put permissioned blockchain to the sword in a way that I was struggling to articulate. |
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Volatility dropping hard. Calm before the storm. Expect an explosive move within the next 48 hours.
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Well it enables rule breaking.
So the real question is what rules are you going to break on your seastead?
No AML would apply to Elwar while he is on his seastead so he could LocalBitcoin to his hearts content. Maybe he will run ICOs from the seastead.
If gets a bit more iffy once you go to port though. And the USA will seek to apply their rules to you if you do business with US residents, use US dollars or the US banking system. Which basically means any bank anywhere in the world. Not Bitcoin tho.
So an interesting proposal.
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Jbear
In your opinion, what are the odds that CSW is Satoshi?
I would be interested in you stating in clear terms what probability you consider this to be true? I appreciate that certain things may be unknowable with present knowledge, but that is why we assign probabilities.
So please tell us what is your probability that CSW is Satoshi.
I dunno. Maybe one in twenty? In fifty? Hard to place odds on something in which most of the variables are not available to be seen. Ok. So in broad brush strokes you would place the odds of CSW being Satoshi between 2 - 5%, which is “highly unlikely” in statistical terms. Thank you that’s helpful |
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Just bought some on the spike down to $3590. While I don’t think the bottom is in, I am also being very defensive.
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I can think of at least one strong reason why satoshi would like to sow doubt about his existence. So in your example of a possible scenario he (Satoshi) would come out and pretend to be a total dick to not be outed properly as a genius? Or perhaps satoshi is a total dick. I mean, why not? As I recall, the initial outing was not uttered by CSW. Yes he did, he told various people 'in confidence' and left clues lying around in the hope they would be picked up. https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/bizarre-saga-craig-wright-latest-inventor-bitcoinA particularity dickish thing to do. Jbear In your opinion, what are the odds that CSW is Satoshi? I would be interested in you stating in clear terms what probability you consider this to be true? I appreciate that certain things may be unknowable with present knowledge, but that is why we assign probabilities. So please tell us what is your probability that CSW is Satoshi. |
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$3625.
I hope that is not too bearish for you Mic.
closest on the day itself e HM just for clarity (not the highest t'ill then, cause i see you take the price of the moment)  Yes I understand the rules  . |
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$3625.
I hope that is not too bearish for you Mic.
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So, while things are not in the bull zone yet, do you not think it 'possible' (as my hopium-addled brain thinks) that this is finally the beginning of the end?
Yes it is definitely the beginning of the end. The problem is, "the end" is quite a large mind space. It will likely take up most or all of the 2019 calendar year. Personally, I am thinking a dull sideways, but slowly upward grind (sure, with fits and starts) from here to the end of this year. Not a bull run yet - but past the definitive end of the bear market.
Too optimistic for me. We have no foundations on which to build a bull run yet. And we need to break the bearline. Those foundations could form tomorrow, but they are missing for now. I think too many people would rather buy at 3XXX and risk it dipping than be forced to buy at 4K or 5K if Bitcoin has a French Weekend when they aren't watching. Yes, it is critically important to be hedged against the upside. If there is to be a new ATH, according to pattern - with the order of increase we saw between the last two, then (to extrapolate) what is the difference buying at 3K or 2K if it might hit 50K inside 2 years?
I have said before, we could hit $280k by December 2021. I still think this is possible. |
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 The general purpose public blockchains out there might best be understood as platforms for rule-breaking apps. (For if there are no rules being broken it becomes tempting to ask why a decentralized architecture is the best tool for the job.) If I were an investor I’d be asking any apps (or dApps) on top of these platforms the question “what rules are you breaking?”. Start reading here: https://twitter.com/udiwertheimer/status/1083850679863648261?s=21 |
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Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year  Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows. Thank you in advance. Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it. Much more profitable. I have thought about this, thats why I said I have orders to buy 3 more coins at 2k. Thats all I can afford to lose. It will bring my total investment to almost 40k. I will not invest another dollar after that. All ive known investing in Bitcoin is a terrible bear market and its hard not to worry as early adopters dump on my face  , but thank you for the advice. Im interested in hearing other Bitcoiners best argument(s) as to why the bottom is not in yet(i believe it isnt but hope im wrong). If you have one id love to hear it. If not thanks anyway. The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close. It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in. We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market. So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.  If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200. This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market. The taupe and purple lines (50 and 100) were the last to uncross in November 2016. It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest. All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter. To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so. This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler. |
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Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows. Thank you in advance. Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it. Much more profitable. |
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Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy  |
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