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If anything we see a crash after new years since suddenly everyone can close their position and take capital gains in 2014 instead of 2013.
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Bitstamp/Bitfinex is crazy. People will just randomly buy or dump 1000 coins at market and absorb massive slippage when they could have saved about $20 grand if they juat spent a little more time making their trade.
Could be just margin calls from finex Out of nowhere in a stagnant market? |
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* performs blood sacrifice ritual and makes offering to Loaded *
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Bitstamp/Bitfinex is crazy. People will just randomly buy or dump 1000 coins at market and absorb massive slippage when they could have saved about $20 grand if they juat spent a little more time making their trade.
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Regarding US capital gains changes, I doubt many hodlers are looking to trade in dramatic fashion tomorrow to avoid the 2014 hike, but I'm not Nostradamus.
edit: spelling error - holders to hodlers
I am under the impression that day tarders cannot possibly reduce taxes anyway by opening a new position and/or transferring coins offline. Is this correct? |
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Recovery of stolen Bitcoin:
Step 1: Pick up bible.
Step 2: ?
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I've come to the conclusion that a daytrader cannot possibly avoid taxes by buying or transferring bitcoins in a new position before the new year. This is because all the "taxable events" occurred earlier and are finished. The trader's new position is irrelevant to the previous taxable events. If he does happen to incur a loss on the trade then it will be applied next year. Is this correct?
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this is all a manipulated house of cards with no real support.
Every day that passes, and Bitcoin continues to grow, this tired old line becomes less and less true. Pre China we could barely support $200. Post China we are supporting $800. Anyone who thinks its all fluff and puff ... is sorely mistaken. I encourage you "day traders" to start listening to the Podcasts like "Lets Talk Bitcoin" (google it) And to get a Google News app for your phone, enter "Bitcoin" as your news search, and read the articles every single day as they come out. Right now its day after day after day of new industries and companies getting involved in Bitcoin. Whats going on outside your little bubble of buying and selling is what really matters, and I don't see many of you even remotely aware of it. Thats my best advice. That's nice that there are positive developments but it doesn't neccessarily mean that the current price level is stable at present. Honey badger don't care and will boom and bust as it pleases. In fact it only makes sense that whales will accumulate into bad news and sell into good news - otherwise they'd have liquidity problems. |
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Before July, it was very normal for individuals to have 10,000 or so coins.
Some people are under the impression that in 4 months there's been a complete paradigm shift, all the coins have been distributed, and nobody owns coins like that anymore. I think of it more like a well-played hand.
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Shit if crypto was regulated I think half the users of btce would go to jail.
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Back in June we were discussing a theory about a single whale who basically dictates the medium term trend whenever he opens and closes his position. We theorized he was the one who made the gigantic 50K dump at $125 in May, starting that sick downtrend, and that he reversed it when he covered his position in the $60s/$70s. Would this whale happen to be the guy called "Loaded"?
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Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795
Things might get interesting.
It would be interesting to see it get dumped through, again. In fact Id get a real laugh if one of the whales just dumped through the whole book all the way to 400. I'll head to the whale temple. |
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I thought the deadline was irrelevant as all affected parties had already reacted by now and the current payment methods are not affected.
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I can see why some people are still so bullish now. They see action but don't know what huobi is and they think all this is happening naturally.
Interesting analysis. I can see why some people are so bearish now. They can look into the future and disregard new investors in bitcoin as a potential factor in price. They think houbi is the one to rule us all. I'm actually bearish for two reasons. First is huobi and second is even WITH huobi, this still looks like that weak trend in May that fell into final capitulation. So combine those two and I am extra bearish. May is a whole world away now though, don't you think? How much media attention, investment, start ups, countries giving their opinions (most of them quite positive) was there back then? How many key events - pending US clarification (looking very positive) for example - were just a few weeks ahead back in May? Things are very different now aren't they? What is your take on this side of things? These factors are already priced in thus btc is in an overbought state. |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=380690.msg4086673#msg4086673It's all based on psychology.
During a btc bubble, alt/btc tends to move against btc. This is because
1) Traders all want to hold btc to be part of the btc rally, and are willing to sell the alt at any price, to oversold levels, to do so. This drives alt/btc down.
2. Traders have the attitude that alt/usd is a constant and then when btc/usd rises, mathematically, alt/btc must fall, and vice versa.
3) They use the alt as a hedge against btc corrections during the rally.
Summary: Traders want to hold BTC.
During a btc crash after a bubble, alt/btc tends to move with btc. This is because
1). Investors are so bearish that they sell the alt to oversold levels because it necessary to sell btc for fiat.
2) A bearish mindset that if btc can crash then alts must be completely worthless.
Summary: Traders want to hold FIAT.
When these conditions are not met, often btc/usd does not affect alt/btc. This is because
1) Investors are not having trading reactions on one pair based on the other pair and there is no psychological reason to do this.
2) Investors realize that the value of alts rise and fall with the value of btc.
Summary: Theres no strong influence over what traders are holding.
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I can see why some people are still so bullish now. They see action but don't know what huobi is and they think all this is happening naturally.
Interesting analysis. I can see why some people are so bearish now. They can look into the future and disregard new investors in bitcoin as a potential factor in price. They think houbi is the one to rule us all. I'm actually bearish for two reasons. First is huobi and second is even WITH huobi, this still looks like that weak trend in May that fell into final capitulation. So combine those two and I am extra bearish. |
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I can see why some people are still so bullish now. They see action but don't know what huobi is and they think all this is happening naturally.
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Amazing to read all the "IT's MANIPULATION!" posts. Where's that meme of the kid screaming when you need it?
Amazing to see so many naive people (probably young) who think market manipulation does not exist. Manipulators have existed since the creation of markets, in all markets. You're being too idealistic. Wake up. You don't live in a happy altruistic candy world. lol such a butthurt bear I think some of the bulls are being a bit overconfident and arrogant considering they were just rescued by some shady new Chinese exchange sidestepping government laws and the near term price is in the hands of huobi. |
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Now is the time to just turn off the charts for a couple weeks and wait for the bitcoin paranoid alerts to start coming in "btc down 5% to $800" "btc down 5% to $700" etc. It'll happen slowly but surely once the whales lose their patience. I remember how euphoric it felt when I saw the first 50k btc dump at $130, and then that night with all the brilliant fat streams of beatiful red all the way down to $88.
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The current trend is too weak and low volume to reach anywhere near $1000. It will have to be after another capitulation. So, probably not in January.
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