Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

Rumour time!

TIL that a major US hedge fund investor will announce a significant position in #bitcoin within the next several days. Happy New Year!

Source: https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/417769054326108160

More details here:

The investment firm has apparently raised even more money than SecondMarket's Bitcoin Invesment Trust. I'll repost with details and firm names once the full story is pieced together.

if someone buys a Significant amount of bitcoin all within a couple days, will that make the price dip or spike?
I read in another post someone saying that it would cause the price to spike but that doesn't make sense to me. Someone buying a lot would cause the price to spike, that's logical, right?

Depends if someone dumps it in their lap but usually yes - if someone really wants to buy then they will buy upwards!

Depends on what significant amount is. Usually 1000 will do it. But won't raise price by much.

Well, if its MORE than Secondmarket it will be more than 80,000 bitcoins worth.

[Voodah]

I recently learned I am one-degree of separation from a great whale manipulator.  Manipulation is happening.  I also learned that the exchanges realize this and are cracking down on it behind the scenes (they obviously don't want to come out and discuss this openly).  And besides, as the market grows, manipulation is becoming more difficult anyways.

But it's important to note that the great whales do not want bitcoin to crash to the point where it truly damages confidence.  They know they cannot quickly cash out 100,000 BTC and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.  

In fact, the more I think about "manipulation" and "whales" the less I see it as manipulation in the first place.  What's wrong with putting up a 1,000 BTC sell wall to try to drop the price?  By doing this you are risking a larger whale eating your wall in a single bite--live by the sword and die by the sword it seems.

In conclusion, the great whales--more often than not--are allies of bitcoin.  

I agree. I'm not sure why "manipulation" is seen as illegitimate. Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

In my current naive mind, I can see a "manipulation problem" only when "unfair advantages" are being played, like in the case of naked short-selling, for example.

I completely agree and I'm merely stating it exists and that it is naive to deny it.

I'm not talking about legitimacy. In fact, manipulation is part of the natural dynamics of any zero-sum game (as markets are). Everyone should read about Nash equilibrium, game theory and the such.

To win in the market it pays to think n moves ahead of your adversary, same as in chess.

Manipulation is just the art of tricking your opponents into picking the next wrong move, and then taking advantage of that.

Traditional market studies with successful traders has shown it goes much further than that, where some traders claim to be thinking and basing their strategies off of the analysis of 5 "moves ahead".

Chess players think as far as 10-15 moves ahead with all of their possibilities branched out.

Manipulation IS part of the game.

[Richy_T]

Nice, how did you create this cool chart?

100% custom code.

[Richy_T]

my bee brothers order come in just now

Much honey
Very gift
Such Delicious

Buy all the bitcoins, and live off honey and caramels!

Just get some bees. Hmm, there's an idea for a new altcoin.

[windjc]

I recently learned I am one-degree of separation from a great whale manipulator.  Manipulation is happening.  I also learned that the exchanges realize this and are cracking down on it behind the scenes (they obviously don't want to come out and discuss this openly).  And besides, as the market grows, manipulation is becoming more difficult anyways.

But it's important to note that the great whales do not want bitcoin to crash to the point where it truly damages confidence.  They know they cannot quickly cash out 100,000 BTC and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.  

In fact, the more I think about "manipulation" and "whales" the less I see it as manipulation in the first place.  What's wrong with putting up a 1,000 BTC sell wall to try to drop the price?  By doing this you are risking a larger whale eating your wall in a single bite--live by the sword and die by the sword it seems.

In conclusion, the great whales--more often than not--are allies of bitcoin.  

I agree. I'm not sure why "manipulation" is seen as illegitimate. Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

In my current naive mind, I can see a "manipulation problem" only when "unfair advantages" are being played, like in the case of naked short-selling, for example.

I completely agree and I'm merely stating it exists and that it is naive to deny it.

I'm not talking about legitimacy. In fact, manipulation is part of the natural dynamics of any zero-sum game (as markets are). Everyone should read about Nash equilibrium, game theory and the such.

To win in the market it pays to think n moves ahead of your adversary, same as in chess.

Manipulation is just the art of tricking your opponents into picking the next wrong move, and then taking advantage of that.

Traditional market studies with successful traders has shown it goes much further than that, where some traders claim to be thinking and basing their strategies off of the analysis of 5 "moves ahead".

Chess players think as far as 10-15 moves ahead with all of their possibilities branched out.

Manipulation IS part of the game.

Then why the hell were your bitching that you wanted to stop trading because there was too much manipulation. Lol. Come on. Do you even read your own posts?

[DaSheep]

Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

It's one of my biggest fears I have because it could work with bitcoin given the limited and well known supply.

[Voodah]

I recently learned I am one-degree of separation from a great whale manipulator.  Manipulation is happening.  I also learned that the exchanges realize this and are cracking down on it behind the scenes (they obviously don't want to come out and discuss this openly).  And besides, as the market grows, manipulation is becoming more difficult anyways.

But it's important to note that the great whales do not want bitcoin to crash to the point where it truly damages confidence.  They know they cannot quickly cash out 100,000 BTC and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.  

In fact, the more I think about "manipulation" and "whales" the less I see it as manipulation in the first place.  What's wrong with putting up a 1,000 BTC sell wall to try to drop the price?  By doing this you are risking a larger whale eating your wall in a single bite--live by the sword and die by the sword it seems.

In conclusion, the great whales--more often than not--are allies of bitcoin.  

I agree. I'm not sure why "manipulation" is seen as illegitimate. Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

In my current naive mind, I can see a "manipulation problem" only when "unfair advantages" are being played, like in the case of naked short-selling, for example.

I completely agree and I'm merely stating it exists and that it is naive to deny it.

I'm not talking about legitimacy. In fact, manipulation is part of the natural dynamics of any zero-sum game (as markets are). Everyone should read about Nash equilibrium, game theory and the such.

To win in the market it pays to think n moves ahead of your adversary, same as in chess.

Manipulation is just the art of tricking your opponents into picking the next wrong move, and then taking advantage of that.

Traditional market studies with successful traders has shown it goes much further than that, where some traders claim to be thinking and basing their strategies off of the analysis of 5 "moves ahead".

Chess players think as far as 10-15 moves ahead with all of their possibilities branched out.

Manipulation IS part of the game.

Then why the hell were your bitching that you wanted to stop trading because there was too much manipulation. Lol. Come on. Do you even read your own posts?

So now you agree?

You still haven't answered the question you proud little man.

Yes, manipulation is too heavy right now. I consider it best not to make any big decision.

What exactly do you not understand? You're getting dumber by the minute..

[Peter R]

Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday

It's one of my biggest fears I have because it could work with bitcoin given the limited and well known supply.

Thanks DaSheep.  I though this was interesting:

"But on January 7, 1980, in response to the Hunts' accumulation, the exchange rules regarding leverage were changed, when COMEX adopted "Silver Rule 7" placing heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities on margin. The Hunt brothers had borrowed heavily to finance their purchases, and as the price began to fall again, dropping over 50% in just four days, they were unable to meet their obligations, causing panic in the markets."


Seems it was a change in COMEX regulation that triggered the panic.

[windjc]

I recently learned I am one-degree of separation from a great whale manipulator.  Manipulation is happening.  I also learned that the exchanges realize this and are cracking down on it behind the scenes (they obviously don't want to come out and discuss this openly).  And besides, as the market grows, manipulation is becoming more difficult anyways.

But it's important to note that the great whales do not want bitcoin to crash to the point where it truly damages confidence.  They know they cannot quickly cash out 100,000 BTC and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.  

In fact, the more I think about "manipulation" and "whales" the less I see it as manipulation in the first place.  What's wrong with putting up a 1,000 BTC sell wall to try to drop the price?  By doing this you are risking a larger whale eating your wall in a single bite--live by the sword and die by the sword it seems.

In conclusion, the great whales--more often than not--are allies of bitcoin.  

I agree. I'm not sure why "manipulation" is seen as illegitimate. Maybe I should read up on history. Can someone point me to something in history that meant trouble and triggered all the regulation we have in the "regulated" markets?

In my current naive mind, I can see a "manipulation problem" only when "unfair advantages" are being played, like in the case of naked short-selling, for example.

I completely agree and I'm merely stating it exists and that it is naive to deny it.

I'm not talking about legitimacy. In fact, manipulation is part of the natural dynamics of any zero-sum game (as markets are). Everyone should read about Nash equilibrium, game theory and the such.

To win in the market it pays to think n moves ahead of your adversary, same as in chess.

Manipulation is just the art of tricking your opponents into picking the next wrong move, and then taking advantage of that.

Traditional market studies with successful traders has shown it goes much further than that, where some traders claim to be thinking and basing their strategies off of the analysis of 5 "moves ahead".

Chess players think as far as 10-15 moves ahead with all of their possibilities branched out.

Manipulation IS part of the game.

Then why the hell were your bitching that you wanted to stop trading because there was too much manipulation. Lol. Come on. Do you even read your own posts?

So now you agree?

You still haven't answered the question you proud little man.

Yes, manipulation is too heavy right now. I consider it best not to make any big decision.

What exactly do you not understand? You're getting dumber by the minute..

It depends on what you define as manipulation. Do I think there is manipulation that makes it too hard to trade. No. Are there people trying to influence the market. Yes. Do those people all act in the same way. No. There is counter balance. If these influences are actually having a major effect, then it creates trading opportunities even more than would be there without.

Do I think traders over analyze? Yes.  We are just in a flat market now.

[Voodah]

[...]Are there people trying to influence the market. Yes.[...]

Let it be known.

[virtualfaqs]

Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795

Things might get interesting.

[Peter R]

Gentlemen (windjc and Voodah), I respect both your opinions, but I don't see why you're arguing.  I think Voodah is saying that "manipulation" is happening and he'd prefer not to actively trade it right now, while windjc is saying that "manipulation" is happening and that he feels he can profit from it.  There does not appear to be an argument here (edit: except maybe the definition of "manipulation.")

[TERA]

Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795

Things might get interesting.

It would be interesting to see it get dumped through, again. In fact Id get a real laugh if one of the whales just dumped through the whole book all the way to 400. I'll head to the whale temple.

[aminorex]

Market manipulation is generally understood to mean trading for purposes of effecting a price impact, not otherwise in the interest of the trader.  For example, sham sales, in which the counterparties have pooled resources, or one party takes both roles, so that transactions occur at their preferred prices, can be used to create a trap for speculators, who trade at prices not determined by market forces, but by the collusion of the manipulator(s).  The phrase is meaningful, regardless of your opinion on the moral or legal status of the act.

[T.Stuart]

Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795

Things might get interesting.

It would be interesting to see it get dumped through, again. In fact Id get a real laugh if one of the whales just dumped through the whole book all the way to 400. I'll head to the whale temple.

Make offerings at the Whale Temple for successful bear trading!  

In fact I should add an address.

[mellowyellow]

Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795

Things might get interesting.

It would be interesting to see it get dumped through, again. In fact Id get a real laugh if one of the whales just dumped through the whole book all the way to 400. I'll head to the whale temple.

I'd love to push the button on something like that... the power... the 'I think I may just have a cup of tea before I unleash chaos, muahahaha'.

[Voodah]

Gentlemen (windjc and Voodah), I respect both your opinions, but I don't see why you're arguing.  I think Voodah is saying that "manipulation" is happening and he'd prefer not to actively trade it right now, while windjc is saying that "manipulation" is happening and that he feels he can profit from it.  There does not appear to be an argument here (edit: except maybe the definition of "manipulation.")

His view is clear only now, once he's changed his argumentation:

Do I think there is manipulation that makes it too hard to trade. No.

Which is, incidentally, what he should've said right from the bat. Instead he used another tone and message with the such:

Lol. So this secret manipulation, it always works against you?

[vdcc]

I love it how you just disregard everything and oversimplify things.

I'll say it again in case you haven't read it: Recognizing something is not the same as identifying its purpose.

Which means NO, I don't see its effects and can automatically extrapolate all the information needed. No one can. What makes you the oracle?? "Then I will help you determine why".. Really??? Where do you get off?? Who made you trader of the century?

"This isn't rocket science." so you must be a multi-millionaire right? right??

I encourage you to use you're amazing foresight skills in other fields: see Cancer, extrapolate, Cancer defeated, profit. See quantum forces, extrapolate, time travel achieved, profit.

I read all of your posts and enjoy them, but this "know it all, EZ mode" attitude I cannot understand. I know you're a intelligent person.

Just answer me this with your most honest point of view: is there manipulation in Bitcoin markets?

a) Yes
b) No

Because that is what it boils down. I don't truly believe you, an intelligent person from what I've seen in your posts, thinks there is NO (and it means NO, not a single shred) manipulation.

Lol. So this secret manipulation, it always works against you?

Disregard everything and just answer with a stupid question?

You didn't answer my question.

I'll take that as "a) Yes, plus I'm too proud to admit it".

And it's no secret either, you just choose to blindly ignore and disregard (quite the modus operandi you've got there).

Manipulation, yes? Are you talking about someone happily selling to a happy buyer? Or are you talking about someone happily buying from a happy seller?

Yes, but happy buyer and happy seller are probably the same person/company/bot.

Or are you talking about someone using fraud or violence to aquire coins or fiat?

No violence, but fraud yes. If you pump/dump coins (or even fake volume and trades) for financial gain, then you are defrauding honest traders.

Maybe you are talking about trading for the effect, like selling a lot to lower the price, then take advantage of that? Well that may be forbidden in some markets, but not with bitcoin, and we don't want it to be.

Maybe you don't want it to be, but i do.

[aminorex]

2 hour 144 and 72 bar linear regressions.

I think the first meaningful triangle of 2014 is 680-820 on 1 Jan to 775 on 7 Jan (bitstamp). If the price is in that range with the new year, then the direction in which the price exits this region is likely to prevail over the following two to five days, and it may move quickly.

[Peter R]

Interesting debate guys regarding market manipulation.  I think aminorex's definition below is a good one (regardless of one's views on the ethics of such an activity):

Market manipulation is generally understood to mean trading for purposes of effecting a price impact, not otherwise in the interest of the trader.  For example, sham sales, in which the counterparties have pooled resources, or one party takes both roles, so that transactions occur at their preferred prices, can be used to create a trap for speculators, who trade at prices not determined by market forces, but by the collusion of the manipulator(s).  

According to this definition, I believe that market manipulation is indeed happening.  The next question is "is this wrong"?  vdcc says this is fraud:

No violence, but fraud yes. If you pump/dump coins (or even fake volume and trades) for financial gain, then you are defrauding honest traders.

I'm not convinced, but I'd like to hear further arguments.  Here's what I think is fraud:

A whale calls up the owner of an exchange and, says "I want to put up a 5,000 BTC ask wall to scare the fish into selling to me for cheaper, but I don't actually want to risk a bigger whale buying all my coins.  Can I pay you 50 BTC to ensure that if someone tries to buy my wall that your trading engine encounters 'technical difficulties'?"  If the owner agrees, this is fraud and we have laws that would apply in such a situation.  

But if two colluding whales buy and sell to each other on the open market to try and make it appear there is more volume at a price higher or lower than what they believe to be the market price, then could not one argue that this is simply "strategy"?  Is not everyone still playing by the same rules?