So in order for a TA analyst (I won't judge the TA science per se, I'll keep it with the people) should make correct predictions most of the times (or at least, correct enough to break even).
So here is my suggestion: Every TA in Btctalk keep a note about his predictions in a text file (sure you'll post about it here, but I don't want to go through hundreds of posts) and then present them to the btctalk society to judge his TA skills.
The file format is quite simple
dd/mm/yyyy: (predicted price for the day) | (predicted future trend)
Who's in?
We should do better than that, and create a speculation game/competition. Everyone starts with 100 virtual bitcoins (is that an oxymoron too?) and trades them using mtgox prices. After a few months, we see who comes out ahead. |
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unbelievable in this day and age. I was going to argue against bitinstant, but by the looks of it, its virwex that doesnt even offer 2FA? And apparently the password reset procedure doesnt require a security question or anything else, withdrawls arent fixed to a specific address (or with time delay)...
Sheesh.
Is there really nobody who can do exchanges right?
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What the hell arepo?
Why do you talk about the difficulty of disproving TA, when you provide nothing to prove it.
There is his prediction track record. I just browsed his posting history. Some semi random quotes. Note the date, and if you have any doubt, look up the charts: merry christmas to all, and to bitcoin's value, goodnight.
i'm targeting $12.50 before a bullish correction to $12.85 and then only down from there...
short term targets: $13.00, $13.10, $12.85, in order
the smaller picture you mean.
right now we're bouncing off of the 61.8% mark from the low of $15.63 to yesterday's peak of $17.81.
unless we break through there is no way but down.
clear consolidating market making new lows in the ADX
I'd buy, but I'm out of USD.  you and all of the other irrational bulls. ready for the squeeeeezedown we go
yes, i suspect that this move is far from over and that the 'real' correction is starting. we should settle into a downtrend and continue until we bounce off of a strong support like $21.
...
i called down. the next move was down.
etc, etc. And yet bitcoin doubled and tripled during this period despite his endless strings of predictions of imminent crashes, bulltraps and what not. Proof enough for me that reversing Alepo's predictions so far has demonstrated a statistically higher chance of paying off than throwing dice. |
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@adamstgBit
Perhaps its time to lock this thread and start a new one? Screen is almost filled with page numbers as this thread is getting a bit too long.
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Sorry if this has been asked and answered before, its a long thread; Doc, whats your policy regarding block size limit and satoshidice transactions?
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I took an $80 gamble - I will keep you guys updated....
Date Registered: Today at 02:51:53 AM Yeah, I wouldnt be surprised at all if you will "win" your "gamble". Kinda curious what rubbish proof you will post though. |
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How long do you think this game is going to last?
As long as everyone of us is happy to have some of those (100$ notes). As long as our bosses give us a couple of those at the end of the month. As long as we can buy booze and hookers with it. All of those we can't with Bitcoins. Therefore: All we do with Bitcoins is go to MtGox and change into $$$ to do the above. you cant do any of the above with paypal either, and so all we do is transfer from your paypal account to your bank and vice versa. Does that mean paypal is pointless and worthless? |
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Dear Paypal,
Item does not produce the promised amount of the irreversible virtual currency thats set out to destroy Paypal.
please reverse transaction.
thx.
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huge even compared to accepting credit cards.
1% commission + 2% to convert btc to dollars/euros in your account =3%.
Thats actually more than large merchants pay to Visa/mastercard.
How many of the merchants that BitPay is servicing are able to get rates below 3% for card not present transactions? Im guessing most. What I read, average fees are between 1.95 and 2.5%. http://www.cardfellow.com/blog/average-fees-for-credit-card-processing/If you have data that suggests otherwise, id love to see it, but afaict, using bitpay you lose one of bitcoins key selling points for merchants. Now I understand bitpay have to make a living too and those prices will come down over time if adoption increases, but today it still is what it is and its kinda hard to make the point to a retailer that accepting bitcoin is both cheap and easy. Its one or the other. |
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Who's TA have expected the price to jump again to $42 after that crazy drop?
Nostradamus' did. At five and forty degrees dollar, the sky will burn,
Fire approaches the great new city,
Immediately a huge, scattered flame leaps up,
When they want to have verification from the Normans.
Those at ease will suddenly be cast down
The world put into trouble by three brothers,
The enemies will seize the marine city,
Famine, fire, blood, plague, all evils doubled.
Two times put high, two times put low,
The East also the West will weaken:
Its adversary after several battles,
Driven out by sea will fail at the time of need.. Quite obvious and much less open to interpretation that all that TA nonsense. |
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So he has 500 in stock but will only start selling Monday.
Reality check guys, if he is not mining on them, he is missing out on ~$200,000 per day.
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This carries huge TX costs.
Huge compared to what? huge even compared to accepting credit cards. 1% commission + 2% to convert btc to dollars/euros in your account =3%. Thats actually more than large merchants pay to Visa/mastercard. |
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...you're wrong in each point by the way. You can buy pizza with Bitcoin and BitPay just figured out how to provide service for sellers with goods in an amazon warehouse.
I am at Olivia Plaza Hotel, Barcelona, Spain at the moment. I have 12BTC in a wallet on my smartphone. I am hungry and want a pizza. Question for you: What do I do now?Send me the 12BTC, and I will make sure a pizza of your choice is delivered. I will throw in a free bottle of wine. |
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Cheap coins soon  Thats what Im betting on. $20-25 would be nice, but Ill start buying from $30 onwards. |
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Bulls put up a good fight, but there seems to be too much downward pressure right now.  |
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Yes, countries do not own resources. People do.
So how could US or brittish companies have bought these resources from Venezualian or Iranian governments? By your logic that wouldnt have been legit to begin with. Anyway, feel free to disagree, but I see far less evil in a democratically elected leader doing what his own electorate wants him to do (I guess you call that "populism"?) than in a puppet dictatorship oppressing and massacring their own people and acting only to serve the financial interests of the foreign companies that put it in power. |
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You are right it is likely the latter. And certainly injustice has been done both during and after the war (to Germans and Dutch people alike).
But I have to say I think there are large differences, the fact that Venezuela is not occupied, the fact that property and businesses weren't seized and resold but bought by foreign investors and the fact that those investors have owned the property and business for a far longer time than the duration of WWII being three of them.
Whats the big difference between foreign occupation and a puppet regime or dictatorship imposed by foreign countries if they both serve to steal a nations resources? As for duration, if WW2 had lasted 20 more years, would german "enterpreneurs" have a had a more valid claim on your countries resources? |
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Yes much worse.
really now. Either you are oblivious to the history of those countries, or you are insane. I assume you are dutch, after your country was liberated in WW2, did you buy back everything from those german entrepreneurs, or did your governemt "steal" it? |
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Im selling too. Im going to keep half my btc for a few years no matter what, the other half is mostly sold now as I do expect a major correction. If Im wrong, then thats good news for my remaining half. Cant lose either way.
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Concerning Chavez? He is a thief. He stole companies from entrepreneurs in Venuzuela for his own populist agenda and kicked them out of the country.
I guess you think that is somehow worse than foreign companies overthrowing democratic leaders to install puppet regimes to steal Venezuelan (/Iranian/Iraqi/etc) oil? Chavez gave back to Venezuelans what belonged to them in the first place. Much like Mossadeq before him. |
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