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3501  Economy / Economics / Trump wants to impose a 'reciprocal tax' on trade partners on: February 13, 2018, 05:05:51 PM
Quote
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would push for a "reciprocal tax" against countries, including U.S. allies, that levy tariffs on American products, but officials did not provide details on how such a tax would be structured or what goods it would apply to.

During his populist 2016 presidential campaign, Republican Trump railed at countries that had trade surpluses "taking advantage of the United States" and he revisited the theme on Monday.

"We cannot continue to let people come into our country and rob us blind and charge us tremendous tariffs and taxes and we charge them nothing," Trump told reporters at a White House event to announce a proposed infrastructure plan.

The United States loses "vast amounts of money with China and Japan and South Korea and so many other countries ... It's a little tough for them because they've gotten away with murder for 25 years. But we're going to be changing policy," he said.

Trump said his administration will impose a "reciprocal tax" to charge other countries - "some of them are so-called allies but they're not allies on trade."

He did not specify how such a tax would be structured, or whether he meant that U.S. tariff rates should be raised to equal to those charged by other major trading partners. Administration officials were not immediately able to elaborate on the president's comments.

Trump cited motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson as an example of the problem of unfair trade. Harley is building a factory in Thailand, partly because its U.S.-built bikes face a 60 percent tariff there.

The United States has pledged to the World Trade Organization a relatively low, 3.5 percent applied tariff rate, compared to 9.9 percent for China and 5.2 percent for the European Union. For some products, the gap is much wider, such as in passenger vehicles, where the United States charges 2.5 percent tariffs, versus 25 percent in China and 10 percent in the EU.

It was also unclear whether Trump was reviving the idea of a border adjustment tax, an idea rejected by congressional Republicans in last year's tax reform effort.

Retailers and some import-dependent industries strongly opposed the plan for a 20 percent tax on imports aimed at offsetting the value-added tax refunds that some countries grant to their exporters. The National Retail Federation at the time called it a "bad tax" that would "drive up the prices of countless products Americans use every day."

Trump asked Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross if he agreed with the idea of a reciprocal tax during the infrastructure event.

Ross said, "sure," and proceeded to say that the United States for too long had offered trade concessions to other countries that were no longer needed.

"Well, we gave away so much unilaterally that we really have to claw it back," Ross added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/us-to-push-for-reciprocal-tax-on-trade-partners.html

....

Looks like a real effort might be made to reverse trade deficits which constitute standard foreign policy for the USA over the course of the past few decades. It'll be interesting to see what the media's take on this is. So far their stance looks neutral. Reading this article, it sounds unbelievable. Nothing like this has been proposed over the past 20 years that I can recall. I can't remember a single nobel prize winning economist, famous investor, real estate mogul or anyone anywhere even hinting at something like this being a legitimate proposal.

That could hint at how much mind control there is in the media & how much control over public opinion is exerted in terms of an effort to control the ideas and opinions people come into contact with. Or it could hint at Trump being insane or a genius to think of this, an idea that no one else has mentioned over the past 20 years.

Would be curious to know what views people have on this. 
3502  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Instead of gambling - run your own fantasy sports website on: February 13, 2018, 04:51:31 PM
If a start up gambling site could consistently offer better odds than larger sports books, I think they might be competitive. Else it might be hard to compete with larger books who can afford to offer incentives, spend more on advertising and offer better support and more attractive deals than a small book with less money to spend could afford to.

There are a lot of gambling sites, fantasy sports sites and crypto based clones of fanduel and draftkings that are completely deserted and eventually shut down over the years. Its very easy to lose money, especially if the only people playing on your site are experts and sharp cappers who are able to win consistently over the long term. There have been many crypto betting sites that have shut down over the years because of this.

Also many fiat based books now offer bitcoin deposits and withdrawal. That makes things extra tough for crypto books to compete due to larger books having more props and betting options. On the plus side, if you can get a successful bitcoin sports book up and running, I think some of them used to bring in more than $1 million per year. That was around 4-5 years ago(if I remember right), things might be different now.
3503  Economy / Economics / Re: Decentralized Exchanges - The Next Frontier on: February 13, 2018, 04:20:06 PM
Google has floating servers, located in international waters, not really subject to any specific jurisdiction.

Or you could just encrypt all of the internet communication. Tor is slowly getting there, but we'll need faster computers or more efficient encryption in order to make this a reality.

Good point. I forgot google did that. I think part of the reason for that is having server farms floating on a literal ocean of liquid coolant was an interesting experiment they wanted to carry out. Many of googles server farms inland are subsidized by taxpayers and subject to tax breaks. There's no reason for google to fund an international projects like floating server farms on their own when they can do it domestically and have taxpayers foot the bill.

VPN's and TOR encrypt communications. What isn't encrypted is the IP address packets are forwarded to. That could be a limiting factor. Also... I think everyone knows state suveillance is hard-wired into ISP's and sniffs all internet traffic with programs like carnivore and echelon long being in operation.

I'm not certain how secure TOR is. Given the crackdown on the original silk road, which law enforcement claimed they were able to track down due to a "configuration error". And given the 2017 shutdown of alpha bay, silk road 2.0 and all those other TOR based markets. It is possible TOR isn't as reliable or anonymous as it was once considered to be.
3504  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What do you think is holding bitcoin back? on: February 12, 2018, 05:26:25 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say the biggest obstacle to bitcoin mass adoption is the media which unfairly portrays crypto currencies with an unjustified negative slant. There's not much accurate or objective analysis of bitcoin in the mainstream media. The only things people hear are that its used by criminals and bad as its money created out of thin air, lacking intrinsic value.

I think if bitcoin had been introduced 10 years earlier, when journalistic integrity was at a higher level than it is now, we would see a more open minded public willing to consider the alternate point of view crypto currencies provide in terms of economic and financial analysis. Also we might see a better informed public, in a better position to understand the issues surrounding crypto without being as heavily subjected to agenda based rhetoric.
3505  Economy / Economics / Re: Decentralized Exchanges - The Next Frontier on: February 12, 2018, 05:06:19 PM
Before "The Pirate Bay" shut down, there was talk of hosting micro servers hosting files inside drones that were built to stay in the air for prolonged periods of time in an effort to escape regulation and government shut downs. I could imagine someone hosting a crypto exchange in a similar manner. Maybe host a crypto exchange on a boat or island in international waters where theoretically there are no governing bodies as no single nation has "jurisdiction" over the territory.

I'm certain there are many loopholes which might be exploited. Given the crackdowns on silk road(Ross Ulbricht aka Dread Pirate Roberts), alpha bay, megaupload(Kim Dot Com), pirate bay, ninja video(if anyone remembers them) and others. Somehow I doubt anyone will go that far.

It would be cool if someone was that crazy though. I wish I had the resources. I probably wouldn't do it but if the right loophole could be found--it is possible to set up a deregulated(decentralized?) crypto exchange, in theory.
3506  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can I buy REAL physical silver? on: February 12, 2018, 04:36:26 PM
It depends upon where you live, as for my country you could find silver on every other shop and it's something that's super common.

Where do you live???

 Huh

edit: Food for thought(note the underlined portion).

Quote
Silver standard

Silver standard, monetary standard under which the basic unit of currency is defined as a stated quantity of silver and which is usually characterized by the coinage and circulation of silver, unrestricted convertibility of other money into silver, and the free import and export of silver for the settlement of international obligations.

No country presently operates under a silver standard.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/silver-standard
3507  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can I buy REAL physical silver? on: February 12, 2018, 03:50:20 PM
This is where you are wrong. Both gold and silver are used in manufacturing. Gold is an excellent conductor, but it is also inert in that it doesn't react with water or other chemicals. That makes it incredibly useful. Pretty much every PC and laptop you use will have gold in the chips (which makes old computers valuable - always remove the gold before discarding)

Good point. That affects gold, silver and assorted precious metals as they're traded on metals exchanges.

It doesn't much factor into the price of gold as its traded on commodities markets.

The demand for metals like gold or silver in electronics markets looks like a flat line, as far as I know. There isn't likely to be a noticeable growing demand for gold in electronics. The cost of precious metals makes them cost prohibitive and its far more likely that they're the first thing electronics manufacturers will seek to replace or reduce in quantity.

The best argument for gold and precious metals could be the protection they offer from fiat overprinting, inflation and potentially: hyperinflation.

Precious metals would be worth a lot more if they could be utilized to buy/sell and make electronic exchanges the way modern currencies are able to.
3508  Economy / Economics / Re: Yuan Is Crashing After Huge China Trade Surprise on: February 12, 2018, 01:15:48 PM
Those are exports not overall GDP growth.
China has surpassed the projected growth, see the article in FT..

Question. What makes FT data is accurate and Zerohedge's data inaccurate? How would you recognize valid data from invalid data?

Here's another source which contradicts the FT's claims on china's imports.

Quote

That data (scrubbed from search results? It should be listed but is not...) verifies china's imports shifting the trade deficit in favor of the united states. A lot of people aren't aware search engine results are heavily censored and manipulated. Wikipedia content many "fact check" websites and many official looking and sounding websites function solely as misinformation platforms, publishing propaganda. Most don't even notice.  Sad

Just as @jaysabi said, the main problem with that it comes from zerohedge. If the exports grow it's bad if imports grow it's bad , there isn't a single positive article on zerohedge, for 10 years they've said we're doom and there will be no tomorrow.
Find one positive article on zerohedge...that would be a challenge.

I have read many positive bitcoin and crypto pieces published on zerohedge. For a long time, sites like zerohedge and seeking alpha were the closest thing to independent journalism of economic and financial topics. Recently zerohedge sold out and publishes pro establishment content which is more political and revisionist in nature than it used to be.

Many university professors and "academics" demonize zerohedge simply due to its independent slant and due to it historically being one of the few financial websites to post accurate and objective news. Those days are gone for the most part unfortunately however the negative stigma remains.

Yeah, imports went up by 20%, the trade balance is still positive by a huge number and there is no chance of it going negative unless this runs consciously for a few years.

As for Bitcoin and DowJones, there is no correlation. Bitcoin was going down from the ATH in December while DJ was getting pumped like there was no tomorrow.
Also Bitcoin stopped sliding down 4 days ago while DJ is barely recovering right now.

Imports went up by 20%?  Huh According to the "Financial Times", china's imports grew 4.5% year-on-year.

Quote
Imports meanwhile grew far less than anticipated, with a year-on-year rise of just 4.5 per cent undershooting expectations of a 13 per cent climb and down substantially from the prior month’s pace of 17.7 per cent.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1a9b2cd-33c5-35c4-baab-5b03dbeaa5d5

I think we agree: the FT's data there can't possibly be correct.
3509  Economy / Economics / Re: Where can I buy REAL physical silver? on: February 12, 2018, 12:31:56 PM
Is silver a good idea to buy now?

I would say: no.

The problem with gold and silver is, they carry no utility other than past history. They can't be exchanges for goods or services. There's no infrastructure in place where precious metals can enable a form of electronic payment. They can be difficult to store and are likely easier to steal than say bitcoin for example. They're can also be difficult to physically transport from one place to another.

In addition to the above, there isn't anyone who actually uses precious metals for anything. It has no purpose. Banks and governments hoard precious metals. Other than that, they can't be used for anything. This reduces their value below where it would be if a gold standard or regulatory system were in place to allow precious metals to compete with fiat and other currencies on an even playing field.

There's a school of thought which says: "gold and silver have intrinsic value, they would still be worth something if a war or zombie apocalypse broke out". Looking at puerto rico which was recently hit with that unfortunate hurricane, I doubt anyone will be exchanging gold or silver there anytime soon. There's no infrastructure in place to support a precious metals exchange market and there probably never will be due to special interests not wanting precious metals to compete directly with fiat currency or electronic money.

Precious metals will never be worth anything simply because there's nothing they can be used for and no infrastructure in place to support exchange. They have no utility and the powers that be want it that way.
3510  Economy / Economics / Re: Yuan Is Crashing After Huge China Trade Surprise on: February 11, 2018, 05:50:30 PM
More problematic than numbers coming out of China is absolutely anything published on zerohedge, which deals in conspiracy theories and other discreditable ideas. They've been calling for a devastating worldwide economic depression for the better part of 10 years. Their ideas are protectionist nonsense and anything they have to say on trade is tinted through a useless worldview. It's been noted the site is run by a known fraudster who was barred from the financial industry for insider trading.

Hi. If you disagree with an article on zerohedge (or wherever else) could you use facts or evidence to dispute which parts you believe to be false, rather than encourage wholesale condemnation which kills intelligent discussion and debate as it exists as a form of censorship which is opposed to dissemination of facts and education.

If you read the zerohedge article, its based on interpretation of chart data. Are you claiming that every chart posted in zerohedge's history is false? I would be interested to know your stance and reasoning here. Could you link me to a solid example of a piece published on zerohedge which contained fallacious information?

Clearly there is a reason for the DOW's recent 2,500 point plunge. And there must be a reason behind bitcoin's decline as well. If you have a better explanation for either I would like to hear it.  Smiley
3511  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Iceland to use more energy mining bitcoin than powering its homes this year on: February 11, 2018, 05:21:28 PM
This isn't surprising. 4 years ago, iceland experimented with auroracoin.

Iceland has also been known to prosecute and imprison bankers who are guilty of high risk ventures which threaten the stability of their economy:

Quote
Iceland is the only nation that put top finance executives behind bars after the 2008 crisis. Still, fears of crony capitalism remain.

Kviabryggja Prison in western Iceland doesn’t need walls, razor wire, or guard towers to keep the convicts inside. Alone on a wind-swept cape, the old farmhouse is bound by the frigid North Atlantic on one side and fields of snow-covered lava rock on another. To the east looms Snaefellsjokull, a dormant volcano blanketed by a glacier. There’s only one road back to civilization.

This is where the world’s only bank chiefs imprisoned in connection with the 2008 financial crisis are serving their sentences. Kviabryggja is home to Sigurdur Einarsson, Kaupthing Bank’s onetime chairman, and Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson, the bank’s former chief executive officer, who were convicted of market manipulation and fraud shortly before the collapse of what was then Iceland’s No. 1 lender. They spend their days doing laundry, working out in the jailhouse gym, and browsing the Internet. They and two associates incarcerated here—Magnus Gudmundsson, the ex-CEO of Kaupthing’s Luxembourg unit, and Olafur Olafsson, the No. 2 stockholder in the bank at the time of its demise—can even take walks outside, like Kviabryggja’s 19 other inmates, all of whom were convicted of nonviolent crimes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/10/24/if-iceland-can-jail-bankers-for-the-crash-then-why-cant-america/

Iceland appears to have a history of prizing independence and justice, it makes sense they would embrace crypto. They also don't cater to special interests or bankers the way other nations do.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Hungary, and whichever other nations booted central banker organizations like the IMF out of their country, will be next to embrace bitcoin & crypto. Mostly because of events like this in their past history:

Quote
Hungary Wants to Throw Out IMF

A long-running dispute between Hungary and the International Monetary Fund escalated on Monday when the head of the country's central bank called on the IMF to close its office in Budapest, saying it was no longer needed.

July 15, 2013  06:12 PM Print FeedbackComment
Relations between the government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the International Monetary Fund have never been especially good. Now they have hit rock bottom.

Orbán's former economy minister and current central bank governor, Gyorgy Matolcsy, wrote a letter to IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Monday calling on the fund to close its representative office in Budapest as it was "not necessary to maintain" it any longer.

Hungary owes its economic survival to the IMF. When the country was caught up in the global financial crisis in 2008, the fund and the EU came to the rescue with a €20 billion ($26 billion) loan. At the time, Orbán's predecessor was in office.

Ever since Orbán became prime minister in 2010, Hungary has had trouble with international institutions. His government pushed through a new constitution and many laws that curtailed democracy, the powers of the constitutional court, the justice system and press freedoms. The EU responded by launching several proceedings against Hungary for breaching EU treaties.

In early July, the European Parliament passed a resolution calling on Hungary to repeal the "anti-democratic changes." Orbán angrily dismissed the demands as "Soviet-style" meddling.

Hungary Says Will Repay IMF Loan This Year

Under Orbán, all negotiations with the IMF about fresh aid have failed. On Monday, central bank chief Matolcsy said the country didn't need the IMF's money and that Hungary would repay the 2008 loan in full by the end of this year.

He said the government had succeeded in pushing its budget deficit below the EU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP and had reduced government debt.

Matolcsy is the architect of Orbán's unorthodox economic policy which is based on imposing heavy special taxes on large companies. He became central bank governor four months ago.

The Hungarian economy shrank by 1.7 percent last year. The EU Commission expects it to return to weak growth in 2013. The budget deficit is expected to rise again, back up to 3 percent of GDP.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/hungary-calls-on-imf-to-close-its-budapest-office-a-911250.html

If I remember right, Hungary did succeed in kicking the IMF out of the country, although it didn't receive coverage from mainstream news.

For nations like Hungary who are looking for routes to economic independence from banks, it may represent a natural progression for them to adopt a pro crypto stance and support bitcoin.
3512  Economy / Economics / Re: Yuan Is Crashing After Huge China Trade Surprise on: February 11, 2018, 05:03:03 PM
Quote
Both could be attributed to economic slowdown in china, and the yuan devaluation which naturally follows.

What economic slowdown , they've just increased exports by +11.1%.

As far as I know, china's growth was projected to increase by much more than +11.1%. The closest figure the article cites is this:

Quote
In USD terms, the China trade balance printed $20.34bn, well below the $54.65bn expectation and collapsing from last month.

Perhaps in an effort to show there is no trade war, January exports to U.S. rose 7.5%, but 'friendly' imports surged 20.5% on the year.

The second sentence above also seems to indicate china's trade deficit with the united states is in jeopardy. "Friendly" imports to china growing @ 20.5% a faster rate than chinese export growth @ 7.5% seems to imply this.

China’s 2017 economic growth fastest in two years
https://www.ft.com/content/9bf532a8-66de-37bf-b515-03589957ada4

Of course I don't trust a single number that comes from China but you can't say there is such a terrible slowdown.

And you have to take into consideration that the us markets are at ATH , they've grown in such a way it was obvious a correction would have to come, it was just stupid to watch those numbers going up and up and up..

Recently the DOW dropped around 2,000 points. This happened days after bitcoin's massive decline. Stock market dips mean absolutely nothing to me. But I did wonder what caused it given the united states economy is looking good at the moment. Info posted in OP is about the closest explanation I could come up with. And of course, its interesting to wonder if the DOW price correction and bitcoin decline are related.

There could be a lot of angles and perspectives to this which are relevent to many of the topics which crop up in this section.
3513  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UFC 221: Romero vs Rockhold Prediction and Info Thread on: February 11, 2018, 04:49:45 PM
I watched almost all of the fights.

My take on the main event, Rockhold looked like he hadn't done much hard sparring leading up to it. He didn't look as comfortable having someone wanting to punch him in the face as he did when he fought Weidman & others. I think Rockhold also switched camps and did his training in florida with some of the blackzilian guys instead of in california in the AKA gym with Daniel Cormier, Cain & the rest the way he usually does it. That might have had something to do with Rockhold's kickboxing not looking as sharp as it has in the past.

I'm bummed about Mark Hunt losing. Was hoping he would win that one. Decent card overall. Was surprised to see every asian on the card except for Dong Hyun Kim lose their fights. I think they call that "asian fade in effect".

3514  Economy / Economics / Re: US senators undecided in their attitude towards crypto-currencies and their regu on: February 11, 2018, 04:35:45 PM
One wonders if politicians own crypto. There is a decent possibility some of them do with their history of insider trading. Of course, given their age and relative degree of computer illiteracy, it is possible they subscribe to the Warren Buffett school of thought which might be summarized as: "if its not old enough to be a fossil, don't invest in it".

Seriously, though. I'm interested in what they have to say on the topic. With the government shutdowns, it is possible they haven't had much time to process bitcoin. If there is anti-crypto currency legislation aside from Senate Bill 1241 making the rounds, I hope the government is too busy being shut down to pass said legalese.

Awhile ago, there was a thread made in this section regarding the forbes article on bitcoin and crypto currency millionaires/billionaires with a rumored net worth of more than $400 million. Hopefully the crypto whales can flex their political muscles and block any crazy anti crypto bills that are laid on the table, although that may be a bit over-optimistic on my part.
3515  Economy / Economics / Re: Do you see the connection? on: February 11, 2018, 04:18:48 PM
I think when it comes to economies and financial markets everything is inter-connected. Its a real world application to the analogy of a butterfly flapping its wings in one country, causing a tornado in another. Events which appear irrelevent and uninfluential on a superficial level can carry sweeping large scale implications.

At the moment, stocks and crypto currencies are competitors perhaps similar to intel versus AMD or coke versus pepsi. To a limited degree this implies that money thrown at bitcoin can't be invested in the stock market or vice versa. In a sense they're exclusive in that fashion. However they also fall under the same categorization in terms of being investments which means during a bear market they could both suffer somewhat equally.

Equities and stocks being denominated in fiat implies they're in lockstep to the value of the US dollar. Over the long term bitcoin versus fiat could become a race to determine whether fiat in terms of federal government based liquidity is depleted before bitcoin runs out of network bandwidth, capacity great enough to sustain its growth.
3516  Economy / Economics / Re: Sages of old "predicting" a world of cryptos on: February 10, 2018, 01:39:00 PM
This isn't a prediction of bitcoin.

It does predict a shortcoming of industry which bitcoin was able to exploit, however(underlined).

Quote
The dogma of ‘increasing wants’ as an indispensible basis for further industrial progress. Instead of the duty to work, we now have the duty to consume. To ensure rapid absorbtion of its immense productivity, megatechnics resorts to a score of different devices: consumer credit, installment buying, multiple packaging, non-functional designs, meretricious novelties, shoddy materials, defective workmanship, built-in fragility.

The aim of industry is not primarily to satisfy essential human needs with a minimal productive effort, but to multiply the number of needs, factitious and fictitious, and accommodate them to the maximum mechanical capacity to produce profits. These are the sacred principle of the power complex. Not the least effort of this system is that of replacing selectivity and quantitative restriction by indiscriminate and incontinent consumption
.

THE PENTAGON OF POWER, Lewis Mumford, 1970

The aim of industries such as the banking sector are not designed to satisfy essential human needs with a minimal productive effort. They are structured to multiply the number of needs factitious and fictitious and accommodate them to the maximum mechanical capacity to produce profits. That assessment of the banking industry with its "trust" based model, appears accurate.

One reason bitcoin is able to compete (and possibly win) could involve it being designed to satisfy essential human needs with a minimal productive effort. Its "trust less" paradigm could do away with the profiteering nature of financial networks, which could be one of the big advantages it has.
3517  Economy / Economics / Re: BTC: Large upward move is emminent on: February 10, 2018, 01:25:45 PM
If you have been watching the recent financial markets you are certainly aware of the large downtrend in the Dow Jones. Just a comparison: one percentage point drop in the dow jones corresponds to a loss of about 70bn in market capitalization. And over the last few days, the Dow is down by 10%.

I haven't seen anyone try to explain why the DOW is dropping.  Smiley

With a price correction that massive, one might suspect there is an important and potentially pivotal reasoning behind it. Possibly resistance was too high and there wasn't enough support. Possibly concerns over the health of china's economy on its recent report triggered a panic sell off. Moody's threatening to downgrade US credit, due to concerns over the deficit, could also have played a role. Maybe I have a tendency to needlessly complicate things but it seems to me that there could be enough concern for the DOW decline to be possibly be justified.

I would be very interested to see someone respond to these points as it seems to me that people avoid addressing potential reasons for the DOW's latest drop. No need to avoid the topic, it should be educational and everyone should learn something. I'll definitely learn something even if every point I tried to make about it is 100% wrong.
3518  Economy / Economics / Re: bank on australian allow customers to purchase cryptocurrencies on: February 10, 2018, 01:12:40 PM
Hopefully as time passes we'll see bitcon and crypto diversify further away from china and south korea towards greener pastures. Australia is a good prospect for this as are japan and russia. It wouldn't be surprising if iceland, hungary and states which have policies against central banks embrace crypto in the future. Independence movements in catalan, brexit and elsewhere could also embrace crypto as they are cracked down upon by global banking cartels and the "establishment".

With many banks and financial brokers refusing to sell crypto to customers, the crypto market becomes more lucrative in terms of competition diminishing. The potential profits and opportunity present could guarantee someone in the world will sell crypto no matter how much the practice is shunned by central banks.
3519  Economy / Economics / Re: You missed all the trains, not just bitcoin on: February 09, 2018, 05:32:56 PM
There are always opportunities everywhere which could have been profitable to average people. Amazon's stock opened at $18 under its IPO and is now worth more than $1000. If the venezuelan bolivar recovers from its hyperinflated state, the growth potential could represent an investment opportunity to rival the gains of many crypto currencies over the past 16 months. Someone could have made good money betting on the Philadelphia Eagles to defeat the New England Patriots in the 2017 NFL Superbowl.

Certainly, those are all opportunities lost.

Its ok. There will be other opportunities in the future! The important thing is to learn from experience and do better the next time! There may be other opportunities similar to bitcoin. Don't get discouraged and don't give up.  Wink
3520  Economy / Economics / Moody's Threatens US Downgrade Due To Soaring Debt, "Fiscal Deterioration" on: February 09, 2018, 05:11:26 PM
Quote
Back in 2011, Standard & Poors' shocked the world, and the Obama administration, when it dared to downgrade the US from its vaunted AAA rating, something that had never happened before (and led to the resignation of S&P's CEO and a dramatic crackdown on the rating agency led by Tim Geithner).

Nearly seven years later, with the US on the verge of another government shutdown and debt ceiling breach (with the agreement reached only after the midnight hour, literally) this time it is Warren Buffett's own rating agency, Moody's, which on Friday morning warned Trump that he too should prepare for a downgrade form the one rater that kept quiet in 2011. The reason: Trump's - and the Republicans and Democrats - aggressive fiscal policies which will sink the US even deeper into debt insolvency, while widening the budget deficit, resulting in "meaningful fiscal deterioration."

In short: a US downgrade due to Trumponomics is inevitable. And incidentally, with today's 2-year debt ceiling extension, it means that once total US debt resets at end of day - unburdened by the debt ceiling - it will be at or just shy of $21 trillion.



(Link to image: https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/total%20us%20debt%20feb%202018.jpg )

We expect if not a full downgrade, then certainly a revision in the outlook from Stable to Negative in the coming  months.

Here's Moodys:

Quote
The stable credit profile of the United States (Aaa stable) is likely to face downward pressure in the long-term, due to meaningful fiscal deterioration amid increasing levels of national debt and a widening federal budget deficit. However, the US economy is very strong, wealthy, dynamic and well diversified, and its role in the global financial system is unmatched. These factors help compensate for the impending fiscal weakness, Moody's Investors Service says in a new report.

Moody's has already indicated that rising entitlement costs and rising interest rates will cause the US's fiscal position to further erode over the next decade, absent measures to reduce those costs or to raise additional revenues. The recently-agreed tax reform will exacerbate and bring forward those pressures.

Moody's current baseline forecast is that the sovereign balance sheet will continue to weaken over the coming decade. Absent corrective fiscal measures, the US's Aaa rating will rely increasingly on its unparalleled economic base and the central role it plays in the global financial system.

The US economy's dynamism, competitiveness, rich resource endowment, high income levels and relatively supportive demographic trends underpin its economic strength. While evidence of declining growth potential, coupled with emerging aversion to open trade and foreign labor during a period of rising global competition, suggest that this level of relative strength could erode over time, we expect the US' broad economic strength to support its credit profile for the foreseeable future.

Moreover, the role of the US dollar in global financial markets and the depth and liquidity of the US treasury market remove all but the most extreme government liquidity and balance of payment risks. They insulate the US from external shocks and shifts in financing conditions in a way not seen with other sovereigns.

Moody's research subscribers can access this report, "Preeminent financial, economic position offsets weakening government finances", at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1108357

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-09/moodys-threatens-us-downgrade-due-soaring-debt-fiscal-deterioration

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I'm not certain if Trump or "Trumponomics" deserves all of the blame here. To suggest all the evils and bad policy the united states has been subject to over the past 3 decades is all to blame on a single man who has only been in office for close to a year seems a bit unfair to me. The media hasn't been completely honest or accurate in a very long time. Even zerohedge which used to carry an independent slant and pride itself on its objective stance appears to have sold out and regularly publishes pro establishment propaganda.

Its an interesting time to be alive. Whether you blame Trump or not, it is possible that deficit and debt are real issues the entire world must contend with. If the US federal government ever defaults on its debt, it could drag the economies of the world down with it. Wish this issue had more coverage and scrutiny, its important and somewhat neglected it would seem.
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