Personally, I have, in general, bought every high (and every low, and every price in between) since inception, and I'm up about 20x overall, mark-to-market (as a totally ballpark number).  Some due to value averaging, some due to market making, but most due to underlying appreciation.

This is crypto.  Like Sparta, but less cuddly.

I suspect tifozi got some bad grain.  There is a sort of malaise that can infect the trackers when a market behaves paradoxically (as markets are wont to do, being composed of diverse impulses in stochastic ensemble), a sort of nausea borne of crossing Ising glass domains.

Yeah, we are all airing our dirty laundry on the intertubes.  But you are doing it in pretty good style, sir ( or madam, or mutt, as the case may be ).

Good. In principle, you should be able to reason the more clearly for it.  There is yet more work to done, to that end, however.

Is there anything to refute this:

"There is nothing else on the planet which qualifies as money. Nothing else is fungible, private, and liquid. There can be only one.  The market has chosen, and what we think isn't going to matter one bit."


Yes, but then that's not nearly so interesting as are the consequences of an efficient market, where a natural monopoly controls.  In the short-range, locally, there can be diversity.  But throughout human history, there has always been a global reserve, a fiscal lingua franca, which dominates the backbone of commerce, forms the glue which knits together the limbs of the body oikonomian.  And the efficiency argument seems trivial to me.  In any natural trading domain, or "universe" there should be a corresponding medium of exchange.  It's inherent in the very concept of a medium of exchange.  It's only when there are imposed boundaries or frictions that one domain is split from another, and local conditions can dominate.

I can't consider contradiction to be refutation, but I do invite your refutation - non-beligerently, collegially even.

Not just naive, but also accurate.  There is no present political crisis.  I think the closest we ever came to one was the division and heated discussion of the tail reward.  I consider the outcome to have been a fair approximation to the optimum, so it was a worthwhile use of annealing energy.  While I am critical: "possibly" seems weak.  "Almost certainly"  in the mathematical sense, seems apt.

My dashing foreign friends who brave the English fora might benefit from some linguistic tips.


Some prefer to spell the word thus: "some".  This is a very vivid tale.  I somewhat resemble that remark.  Teacher gives you an "A" for bringing a tear to his eye.


This would be a perfect use of the second-person plural, mostly unknown to the yankees, but beloved in some areas of the American Southeast:  "Y'all must be stupid not to have at least...."

Any deviations from the optimum can be corrected, by improving one's choices.

GBP FTW.

I like cash-like things right now.  Crypto is good.  So are PMs.  It's just a good time to de-risk, and lever only very judiciously.  I see more upside asymmetry in XMR than in anything else, so I want the largest possible position, but I can't put everything in crypto. I can't even put all my crypto in XMR, due to marginal tail risk cases.  Equities, bonds, real estate, all seem very stretched.

If you're levered, he might bankrupt you in a trice.  Alternatively, there is the $5 wrench.

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair.  There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

All of the fevered dreams of bitcoin past become possible again in Monero, because it does not suffer the fatal defects of bitcoin.  The world wants, needs this, even if they don't know it yet.  In 10 years time, I think 200x minimum, or back to a nickel.

Nice. Thanks for the h/t.

I think rationality only goes so far though. You need a bright and Shining Vision in order to cling to a stable point in the distance when the crap storm is besetting you on all sides.

Folks just aren't accustomed to the kind of volatility that we are going to go through. I look around me and all I can see are dinosaurs in their death throes. I am positively pining for bat country.

Stuff is going to get real people. Like Wars and crap.

Sell them now.  You are not worthy.  Yes, it is a game.  You don't have a clue what the game is.  Come back and buy them for ten or twenty times the price when you've learned what the game is.  You could be sitting on 200x profit right now. But you aren't.  Now you want to walk away from another 200x.  Be my guest.  We need this shake-out.

BTW: I'm really not a nice person at all.

Indeed this isn't just cheap, it is crazy, stupid cheap.

Let's get a little perspective:

- Negative interest rates.
- Pervasive electronic surveillance.
- Try moving gold through an airport some time.
- Leading economists and central bankers want to eliminate large denominations of currency.
- Over 50% of the material world economy driven underground.
- Largest bank in the world has more notional derivatives outstanding than the global GDP - name me an asset with less counterparty risk than XMR?
- Generational deflation/hyper-inflation bifurcation impending - good luck with those EUR.

There is nothing else on the planet which qualifies as money. Nothing else is fungible, private, and liquid. There can be only one.  The market has chosen, and what we think isn't going to matter one bit.


What you are not getting is that there is no other money.  Monero is it.  Frankly, I don't get it either.  I am merely human, and hence quite stupid.  But that's the fact, and somehow I have to wrap my head around it, and deal with it, or I will suffer for my limited rationality.  You think this is a game.  It is, but it is not the game that you think you are playing.

XMR is still up 200x from my first purchase, and I think it is good for another 200x by 2025.


This.  Marketcap has to go up and volume has to go down.  Selling XMR at these prices is just insanely stupid.

De-lever and de-risk, people.  Remove your coins from the exchange.  Losing even one XMR is not an option at this point.  Consider it from an effective altruist viewpoint:  Losing one XMR today is like killing twenty people 10 years from now.  That's roughly how many lives you could have saved by spending that 1 XMR wisely at a reasonable future value.  Not to mention the kittens.

Reasonable, I guess.  I have too much FOMO not to buy below 0188.  Gradually, of course.  I consider these cheap coins, discounting from a lower estimate of $25 in 2H2017.

So you can front-run it, of course.  Anyhow, isn't this best relegated to the speculation thread?

Got a pull request?  Complaining accomplishes nothing.  I think everyone understands the situation.  If you can't contribute code, your dev fund contribution is quite welcome.

It's all good.  They'll FOMO later on, or buy some future dip.

0188 is my buy point. Hello again, buy point.

With RingCT Monero will be as close to perfect digital cash as you can get.  I don't see the value of any other coin at that point.  Either they are blockchain apps (not money) or they are scams.