[XMR] Monero Speculation

[vokain]

The biggest issue Monero has pricewise is lack of liquidiy. Sure there are decent amount of btc bidding XMR but it is not enough to catch the dumps. Bitcoin is currently fairly stable and actually is in nice bull run.
I hope the volatiliy will not harm the adaption. For me I do not care my stash, it is too small to care but I am more worried about the adaption.

How can you possibly have liquidity when the marketcap is only 130m and the coin is the second most traded since bitcoin? The trading/marketcap coefficient is 1/11, while in bitcoin is 1/70, in Eth 1/100 and in dash it is also 1/100. Only after 7-10 times increase in Marketcap or 7-10x decrease in trading volume the liquidity will get more stable.  

How would it look like if there is a buy order of 13 000 000 XMR near the current price when there is only 12 900 000 XMR in the whole universe currently?
To be low volatile the market cap has to exceed the current marketcap of bitcoin. There are bitcoin whales who can dump bitcoin to the bottomless pit.

One thing I do not understand: why the big guys dump their Moneros? What is the point? Isn't it better simply to drive the price higher and higher and higher. Those same whales will benefit because new people will adapt Monero and once the new people hold it for some time they are also happy with the increase in purchasing power.

Why not just drive the price higher than the price of bitcoin...? It is possible but it requires a lot of dollars obviously. But the dollars will come when there is a bull market.

Prisoners' (bagholders') dilemma?

[rpietila]

I made a scenario analysis on XMR price (scenarios weighted with their probabilities).

In 365 days, my expected value is 4.5x the current price. This includes scenarios ranging from total loss to unexpectedly large rise.

The thing that makes cryptos a premier asset is the asymmetrical risk and reward. It is in my view equally probable for the price to either crash, boom, or stay roughly the same, in a period of 12 months. The nice thing is that a boom means multiplying the current wealth by a large factor, but the risk "only" means losing it. As a result, it is wildly positive expected value (+EV).

ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.

Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.

[Anon136]

You know. I'm doing escrow with this guy. Or rather he just keeps sending me bitcoins and then asking for them back because "his buyer isnt coming through". Which of course could be totally true, I don't know, but I cant help but feel the existential dread of "maybe he is just trying to use me to clean his bitcoins". It's the first time its been personal rather than just intellectual. Monero adoption will not be propelled by intellectual musings, it will be propelled by that unpleasant gut feeling.

*edit* Starting this day forward I am probably going to begin segregating my bitcoin into trusted unsure and likely dirty. Isn't that just sad? Can you imagine segregating your dollar bills out by how likely you thought they were to have microscopic specs of cocaine on them?

[Dafar]

Not convinced that his is a return to the bullish uptrend


More like a bull trap before continuing downwards


Yup...


0.0168 right now though... can we reach 0.018 today? If we can I'm out, I'm more convinced of a BTC spike during the next month over a XMR spike so I don't feel safe holding XMR. Could probably buy back a lot more if I sit on BTC

Lets go morning bump! It's possible that BURST profits are finding its way to a good XMR entry point (~0.016). Dream marketplace following the other DNMs to accept XMR is also great news.. but nothing that should re-ignite a pump. Great news nonetheless, and for the record I get my coke and ecstasy from Dream so it's nice to have an option to pay with XMR now

[coinism]

It's hard not to be disconcerted about the lack of a GUI after more than two years. I know it's coming "soonish", as it has been for 1+ years. However, at this point it's certainly holding back adoption at a time when adoption is poised to explode.

Got a pull request?  Complaining accomplishes nothing.  I think everyone understands the situation.  If you can't contribute code, your dev fund contribution is quite welcome.

I have contributed to the dev fund. Can you please direct me to the thread where I can speculate about how the lack of basic UI features may affect the price? Perhaps a Monero speculation thread?

I understand the GUI gripes are tiresome (here's looking at you, N-rG). The "Fuck you. Go code a GUI." responses are getting old too.

Make stupid posts, win stupid responses!  

The more the bratty moonchildren pout about the lack of an Official GUI, the funnier it gets to me.

As if stomping their feet and repetitiously asking "are we there yet?" will speed up development.

These high time preference neurotypicals are like the Gavinistas, unwilling to wait for proper Layer 2 Bitcoin scaling and loudly demanding Something Be Done "Right Meow!!!!1!"

When I watch my friend's kids and they start being overbearing about a request, I tell them further nagging will result in penalty delays.

Despite being only a few years old, they understand instantly and stop whining.

I propose we cancel the GUI project entirely, to buy the community a few more precious months off putting of our Eternal September.

infofront, just filter out icebreakers childish response. Read his trust summary for entertainment instead

And right on cue, ^^^there's a moonchild from the failed BlackCoin pump, crying because he can't learn to use a CLI.

If coinism wants to ignore someone because of scam accusations from 2014 that ultimately went nowhere in Court, that's fine.

But he shouldn't presume to police the interactions of infofront.

Coinism is a noob that backed the wrong (black) horse, so I understand why insecurity compels him to challenge Monero elders.

So to make a point, I've left him negative feedback for pages of shameless, extensive BlackCoin (LOOL) pumping, scam site exco.in shilling, and "zomg XMR y u no have GUI" FUD.  

Looks like i hit the spot you love to get personal with people and throw insults - that's not good, helps nobody. just makes you look childish and insecure. I've got no beef with nobody and certainly not going to spend anymore time on your negative responses. i try to stop people attacking others, especially new adopters of XMR. you assume too much.   

Fact 1: most of your posts on BTCT are pumping the BlackCoin scam
Fact 2: you helped advertise the failed exco.in scam
Fact 3: you've been needling the XMR community about 'zomg where's the GUI we need it RIGHT MEOW' since 2014
Fact 4: you presume to tell others who they shouldn't interact with

Now say "childish" again, because I know that's your favorite personal insult.  Enjoyed your well deserved negative trust.

You're a nasty vicious little bugger aren't you?
Look iB, when you get angry and frustrated it is only yourself who is feeling those emotions. it's like drinking poison and hoping that the other person will be affected. That's not how it works, tell this to my students all the time. Actually impressed how much effort you put into this after you got triggered. Now, think about how others feel when you bash them.. it's not a nice feeling, right? do you feel better now? I don't feel good myself when i see another person suffer.   
I'd much rather work together than hate together. We are all in this XMR ship together. I'd rather put my energy into something useful.
and yes BLK was an epic scam i agree. i have no idea what happened with excoin, haven't been that active on cc's for over a year now.

[aminorex]

I made a scenario analysis on XMR price (scenarios weighted with their probabilities).

Nice. Thanks for the h/t.

I think rationality only goes so far though. You need a bright and Shining Vision in order to cling to a stable point in the distance when the crap storm is besetting you on all sides.

Folks just aren't accustomed to the kind of volatility that we are going to go through. I look around me and all I can see are dinosaurs in their death throes. I am positively pining for bat country.

Stuff is going to get real people. Like Wars and crap.

[nioc]

BTW: I'm really not a nice person at all.

Now you tell me?  But kittens!  Although mine is a killer.

Anyway back on topic.  After all this is the official GUI speculation thread.  When the work needed for the completion of the GUI was funded by donations from the generous Monero community earlier this year I estimated that it would be ready by the end of September and stated Oct 2 as it is a Monday.

[TrueCryptonaire]

denial is making me baghold. i could have gone out with 4x profit at 0.02.. but im holding still even now.

Sell them now.  You are not worthy.  Yes, it is a game.  You don't have a clue what the game is.  Come back and buy them for ten or twenty times the price when you've learned what the game is.  You could be sitting on 200x profit right now. But you aren't.  Now you want to walk away from another 200x.  Be my guest.  We need this shake-out.

BTW: I'm really not a nice person at all.

Am I reading correctly, are you calling 2000 usd/XMR?
Do you think it will be the future ATH or are you seeing an opportunity to go even beyond that? 

[aminorex]

Am I reading correctly, are you calling 2000 usd/XMR?
Do you think it will be the future ATH or are you seeing an opportunity to go even beyond that? 

All of the fevered dreams of bitcoin past become possible again in Monero, because it does not suffer the fatal defects of bitcoin.  The world wants, needs this, even if they don't know it yet.  In 10 years time, I think 200x minimum, or back to a nickel.

[vokain]

Am I reading correctly, are you calling 2000 usd/XMR?
Do you think it will be the future ATH or are you seeing an opportunity to go even beyond that?  

All of the fevered dreams of bitcoin past become possible again in Monero, because it does not suffer the fatal defects of bitcoin.  The world wants, needs this, even if they don't know it yet.  In 10 years time, I think 200x minimum, or back to a nickel.

The best part is that Monero can walk the path that Bitcoin has paved, meaning Monero can piggyback off/improve upon everything Bitcoin has mothered while avoiding many wrong turns, and where that road ends we have the means to go further.

[wachtwoord]

ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.

Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.

I disagree and the above is my tactic. Monero is my diversification from Bitcoin but I still think it's way less likely to win than Bitcoin. Seriously people, I strongly advise against selling all your Bitcoin.

Monero is my only other crypto holding other than Bitcoin however so that's a huge compliment. The only other 2 I held were  LTC and PPC which I sold after the previous bubble.

PS: Mimblewimble holds great promise and don't buy ZeroCoin

[aminorex]

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair.  There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

[infofront]

ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.

Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.

I disagree and the above is my tactic. Monero is my diversification from Bitcoin but I still think it's way less likely to win than Bitcoin. Seriously people, I strongly advise against selling all your Bitcoin.

Monero is my only other crypto holding other than Bitcoin however so that's a huge compliment. The only other 2 I held were  LTC and PPC which I sold after the previous bubble.

PS: Mimblewimble holds great promise and don't buy ZeroCoin

I see Zcash as the largest short to medium term threat to Monero. They're likely to have a sizeable PR/advertising budget, and there will be a small army of Z-tards promoting it everywhere. It'll be like DASH on steroids, except that Zcash is actually anonymous, inevitable bugs notwithstanding.

[Dafar]

ADD: Aminorex was correct with his thesis that one should rather sell all his BTC and invest 1/3 in XMR and 2/3 in USD, than keep 95% of the BTC and buy a small XMR position with the rest.

Since XMR is still only 1% of BTC marketcapwise, the above still holds.

I disagree and the above is my tactic. Monero is my diversification from Bitcoin but I still think it's way less likely to win than Bitcoin. Seriously people, I strongly advise against selling all your Bitcoin.

Agreed with this. I'm very surprised that rpietila of all people would suggest selling all your BTC... what happened to the dream man? 

[aminorex]

I strongly advise against selling all your Bitcoin.

theres nothing you can do to stop me.

If you're levered, he might bankrupt you in a trice.  Alternatively, there is the $5 wrench.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair.  There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

Bullish on XMR.

[mambamanagement]

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair.  There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

Bullish on XMR.

haha same exact thoughts!

[vokain]

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair. There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

Bullish on XMR.

Bullish on life

that Knowledge Age is coming on pretty nicely

[infofront]

I am thinking a Trump presidency could crash USD.  Either way, the next administration is going to go full-on fiscal stimulus, and USD is near its peak.  I like market-making in XMR because it is back and forth between BTC and XMR.  Another appealling trading venue is the Gold/Silver pair.  There is no taxable event until/unless you take out some USD, and you are always in PMs, worst case.  But for the moment, USD is where it is at.  As long as oil is crashing, PMs are going to have a huge drag.  I like shorting all the things right now (except XMR).  Also GBPJPY is a good bet.  I nibble whenever it dips under 130.

The best thing about XMR profits is that the IRS will never know about them. 

This reminds me of a conversation yesterday with my wife, who told me that her friend had to pay nearly $10,000 in income taxes last year.
The kicker is that her income is 100% cash.
I was like

[elrippo]

.....
XMR is still up 200x from my first purchase, and I think it is good for another 200x by 2018.
.....

Let me correct that for you