 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL153064486Q#0The same pattern is currently happening as what happened in the Weimar Republic, Germany during 1921 - 1923. In the Weimar Republic, almost everyone, literally, whether rich or poor, was trading the markets because it was mania. It’s happening again, I believe everywhere, in every region of the world. But be ready to HODL the back up/fall back asset if the government loses control of the monetary system. |
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I believe, because of COVID-19’s mutation/new variants, that we will be living in one of the most extra-ordinary times in human history, which many of us can’t, or simply won’t comprehend. Society might not go back to “normal” anymore.
We are in a turning point when human civilization is starting to radically shift into a more restrictive environment. If there is an “asset” for censorship-resistance, OWN as much as you can.
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@temple. History repeats and has a tendency to repeat itself. It has been happening in the past when there is a new rising power to challenge the current super power, the current super power will always protect its position. In any case, Beijing has confiscated more than $100k worth of miners and flattened them with an industrial steamroller. https://mobile.twitter.com/btcinchina/status/1415923704375123970?s=12That’s a symbolic action from the Chinese government depriving people from financial freedom. They will sell it if they didn’t believe that there was a need to spread an anti-Bitcoin propaganda. But it’s OK for Bitcoin. It survived its first serious attack from a state actor. |
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after all. if paypal offered payments for micropennies but said it will charge $80 per deposit and $80 per withdrawal.
people will just use vinmo
are you comparing bitcoin with paypal and venmo? i edited it to clear up any misunderstanding im comparing bitcoin to dollars.. and paypal to sidechains/[bb]altnets like LN[/b] im comparing altcoin to euro.. and venmo to an altcoin sidechain/altnet Did you just call the Lightning Network an “altcoin network”? Because that’s a misinformed way to describe it. It needs an onchain transaction to open, and fund a channel in Lightning. In actuality those transactions in Lightning are Bitcoin transactions that have not been broadcasted in the Bitcoin network yet. |
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When the December price outcome is known, I believe pooyah87 and I can claim the top 2 bonehead predictions in this contest if Bitcoin indeed crashes to lower lows. I actually had hoped to be Bonehead No.1. Hahaha.
Good luck!
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There's a long thread in which I was roundly mocked despite calling the top, the first bounce, and having a 3 year long forecast play out pretty accurately until Tether showed up and pumped $60bn of fake dollars into the market. I'm relatively comfortable being wrong at times. There's a certain satisfaction for getting mocked, I know I've had my share in my field(s) and have taken it on the chin, as it is an acknowledgment of sorts that we may know what we're talking about, even if we're not on the same page. I do like the hat gang a lot, I'd throw in my lot with them if this were a 2-sided game, but I'm also highly entertained by the comments of you and others of a different cloth. I confess I never really know the complexities and nuances of all Bitcoin maxis, but I look forward to seeing more of this play out. Also, the various versions of the Bitcoin end game many of us believe in won't be for a very long time, and my belief is we won't any of us be alive to witness any of those ends, but we'll see a lot more years out, and I still rather feel we'll most of us end up winning in various ways. P.S. I do struggle to really understand the CW-tinged sympathies, but I'd rather blank that out and enjoy everything else you talk about. Call me apolitical or ignorant? But the bliss taking refuge behind that is real;) I like the cut if your jib! Pay no attention to my musings on CSW, they are just the ramblings of a mad old fool. OTOH 50k tx/s, virtually zero fees, and instant settler due to no RBF, CPFP and adherence to first seen rule… no wait that’s also mad too. Right? Insert 4 quadrant princess “right!?” Meme  Then who pays for the costs for keeping the whole network together? The miners? But Block Rewards are going down, and it has “virtually zero fees”? Will the miners hard fork, then extend the supply cap? Well gee gosh, I hadn't even considered that... *rolls eyes* Take a very small number such as the cost of a Bitcoin transaction these days: 0.4sats/byte Take a very large number such as the size of the biggest block that has been processed on main-net: 638mb Thats 2.52 Bitcoin in fees right there. Yes, but where? How many transactions does Bcash SV currently have on average per block? As the block rewards go down, it’s being killed because there will be incentive to mine. Next halving will be on 2024.
You probably won't be aware of this in BTC land, but the guys at nChain are targeting *terabyte* blocks. If anything the sat/byte is going to get smaller because a 1TB block would be 4000 Bitcoin in fees at the current rate.
No need for your "sky is falling" scenario - if antything its BTC that is going to have a problem once the subsidy goes away...
Haha. Anyone who has basic understanding of how Bitcoin works knows the folly of that goal, but GOOD LUCK! |
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Don't hold large amount of crypto on your mobile phone and as extra security measure add strong password protection for your phone and for your crypto wallet.
Instead of using trust wallet, I would suggest that you use open source wallets like Electrum and Blue wallet for your mobile phone, or purchase hardware wallet if you want better security and keep more coins there offline.
Or just install Linux and Electrum in an old computer laptop, and use that as your “Main Bitcoin Computer” where you keep large amounts, and never use the laptop for ANYTHING except for the Bitcoin wallet. Cold wallet, or not, it would stlll be very secure in my opinion. |
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It is not about El Salvador being a hub, it is not a hub, it is about how countries started to see bitcoin as a legal tender and that is the reason why people are seeing it as something good and as long as people keep seeing it as something good then we should not diminish the importance of it neither.
No one is diminshing the importance of the El Salvadorian government’s experiment. I was merely pointing out facts, and the differences between El Salvador and Singapore. Which economic environment would the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency industry flourish more? AFAIK Singapore isn't very Bitcoin/cryptocurrency friendly. Do you have any insider information that Singapore is going to become pro-Bitcoin and accept Bitcoin as a legal tender?Are we going to play the guessing game about which country will be "the new El Salvador"?  Isn't this just wishful thinking about what will happen to Bitcoin,if country X(insert random name of a country) adopts BTC? I believe that Bitcoin should be a truly global currency/asset.We shouldn't rely on one,two or several countries to be considered "the home of Bitcoin". I don’t have insider information, but everyone knows Jihan Wu is based in Singapore, Vitalik Buterin and the Winklevoss twins considers Singapore Gemini’s home in Asia. Everyone is looking at El Salvador to be “the home” of Bitcoin, It is the hype making people think like that. The real home of bitcoin is in the heart of the people who use it, not a country. Decentralized is the key word here. Singapore has made a lot of effort on the technological sector. It cannot be said of El Salvador. Japan has the biggest technologically advanced society out there. So why not Japan? In fact the use of bitcoin in japan has increased much in the recent years and I remember a couple of news that came in 2017 which I will link here: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/bitcoin-price-rises-japan-russia-regulation.htmlhttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/29/bitcoin-exchanges-officially-recognized-by-japan.htmlSingapore has clean governance, and almost zero corruption. El Salvador’s government structure might be corrupt everywhere from the bottom to the top. None of that helps unless the governments are willing to allow cryptocurrencies to be used legally or at least with less problems of the "grey area". I know the combo of a corrupt government and crypto is a bad idea but I feel we are lacking information to comment more on this. Singapore’s banking industry is what made the country develop into one of the richest countries in the world. It can further develop by embracing the Bitcoin industry. The skeptic would say that if the fact that banking sector has its roots close, would mean bitcoin would not get any space there. But practically banks can also use blockchain to deliver services and store information at the same time not allowing governments to accept crypto. Japan is advanced in Electronics and Robotics, and they don’t have the same environment for money markets, and investment banking that could provide capital to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency start ups. |
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~
Long-term holders should have sold Bitcoin when the price was above $50000 or $60000, of course holders would also know when to sell it, or maybe 50% of the assets they have sold, and that's a strategy that we should follow, if a DIP does occur. we have to do accumulation, otherwise it is something to regret. Depending on how long they have been hodling or how much they were hodling at that time then probably they can consider selling at that point look at me, I have sold at around the 40k point and then the prices pumped to 60k and I don't have a lot of money to buy back so I just have to save accumulate again. If I didn't have that need back then to sell, I would've probably got more profit but prioritize things that needs to be finished first. hodlers don't have to do anything, least of which selling their bitcoins! that is absurd to suggest otherwise just because price was above an arbitrary number. there are a lot of people who don't trust exchanges so they will never deposit anything there. that means when there is a short term panic sell they also don't participate. instead they hold and enjoy their profit in long term. Understandable why many investors panic. Being subject to real emotions, especially if someone bid with all their capital on an arbitrary number called $60,000. The first rule to HODL-type, and DCA investing is to be right on the first entry, not because for reasons of more profits/gains, but for reasons of maintaining your SANITY. |
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Everyone is looking at El Salvador to be “the home” of Bitcoin, but I believe Singapore is better to be the true hub of the Bitcoin industry, with serious players.
-snip
Singapore’s banking industry is what made the country develop into one of the richest countries in the world. It can further develop by embracing the Bitcoin industry.
Both of these sentences are contradicting each another especially the bolded part. If Singapore rely on their banking industry that means there is no hope for bitcoin to settle in the country. You are probably contradicting between making it a legal tender like El Salvador or turning Singapore as the hub of the bitcoin industry but basically any other country could also be the central hub for blockchain based industry, Malta is probably one of the option for that and it doesnt have to be Singapore In Malta, I believe the serious players in the cryptocurrency industry won’t have the same access to large money markets, and the banking partners they need to grow. Plus billionaires prefer Singapore, if that’s where developers and start ups can source capitall, that’s where they’ll be. It’s not contradictory if Singapore banks are open to the new emerging market. Cryptocurrencies.
Edit : it seems a little bit make sense to call it blockchain based industry rather than bitcoin industry
Yes, the whole industry. Especially with China banning everything, what is the nearest location in the region, that they can call their new “home”. |
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Everyone is looking at El Salvador to be “the home” of Bitcoin, but I believe Singapore is better to be the true hub of the Bitcoin industry, with serious players.
The "legal tender" and the fact that's rather close to US make El Salvador very important. The fact that other countries are Bitcoin friendly doesn't mean that much. And while El Salvador has its place in history now, Singapore will probably have quite a competition into becoming a "hub" (and probably not from El Salvador). Singapore has made a lot of effort on the technological sector. It cannot be said of El Salvador.
Singapore has clean governance, and almost zero corruption. El Salvador’s government structure might be corrupt everywhere from the bottom to the top.
Singapore’s banking industry is what made the country develop into one of the richest countries in the world. It can further develop by embracing the Bitcoin industry.
Imho these don't matter that much and the comparison is uneven. And you tried to compare apples with oranges, making a fruit salad. As long as the banking industry didn't embrace Bitcoin in Singapore, all you are saying is wishful thinking. And the history has shown that the "possibly more corrupt government structure" has already done a step the "almost zero corruption" govt of Singapore was afraid to make. So comparing the corruption may not bring anything useful. I think that El Salvador will probably not become a tech hub for Bitcoin. It may very well be that even Singapore won't be that. Imho, whether we like it or not, US has bigger chance for that. I believe that will change, and the Singaporean government, and their banking industry might soon welcome crypto-exchanges, hedge funds, and start ups and become the safe haven of the whole Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry. Serious players have already made Singapore their home. Jihan Wu, Vitalik Buterin, and the Winklevoss twins made it their home in Asia. Everyone is looking at El Salvador to be “the home” of Bitcoin, but I believe Singapore is better to be the true hub of the Bitcoin industry, with serious players.
Singapore has made a lot of effort on the technological sector. It cannot be said of El Salvador.
Singapore has clean governance, and almost zero corruption. El Salvador’s government structure might be corrupt everywhere from the bottom to the top.
Singapore’s banking industry is what made the country develop into one of the richest countries in the world. It can further develop by embracing the Bitcoin industry.
I don't see Singapore making bitcoin legal tender anytime soon. That's the main difference between the two countries right now. Bitcoin doesn't need no tech infrastructure, no govt approval, no banks to function properly. Singaporean banks are accepting bitcoin to get new revenue streams. Salvadorans will accept bitcoin to become financially independent in the future. I see big differences here  It’s not about Bitcoin as a legal tender. It’s about a country welcoming the Bitcoin industry, to build and develop to be as successful as the banking industry. |
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The sentiment around here seems kinda mixed. WO thread seems slightly bearish but I see people in other threads that are slightly bullish. So.. for the bulls out there, do you guys think BTC will break out of its recent high of 65k USD this year? If yes, please explain why.
we are near coming the mid of 3rd quarter yet there are no sign of Bitcoin climbing up again . for several months now the value keeps on declining. so i believe that it is hard to believe another ATH will come considering that the value is 50% lower compared to what is the All Time High value. Bitcoin is also known for its potentiality to surge twice, or thrice it’s current market value within weeks. 2021 is not yet over.
But still there are couple of years to go so there is possibilities or there may not.
If the pattern continues from previous cycles, next 3 years starting 2022 will be the long bear market, after the end of the current bull market. BUT, if it broke the pattern, and the May - June crashes actually were “a” bear market done quickly, then we are back to the mean? |
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I believe everyone should also start researching on what Singapore, or Switzerland might be planning for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Both of these countries are banking industry giants because of clean governance, and a network formed with other countries through Free Trade Agreements, which opens the opportunity for foreign investments.
Bitcoin is the next evolution of money. I believe the same trade agreements will be developed and implemented in both of these countries, and I believe they will be the leaders in the cryptocurrency industry. El Salvador as a country will never prosper because the government is corrupt.
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Everyone is looking at El Salvador to be “the home” of Bitcoin, but I believe Singapore is better to be the true hub of the Bitcoin industry, with serious players.
Singapore has made a lot of effort on the technological sector. It cannot be said of El Salvador.
Singapore has clean governance, and almost zero corruption. El Salvador’s government structure might be corrupt everywhere from the bottom to the top.
Singapore’s banking industry is what made the country develop into one of the richest countries in the world. It can further develop by embracing the Bitcoin industry.
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In the next Bitcoin price surge going to six digits, I believe we can be confident that there will NEVER be any FUD coming from China to disrupt the bullishness of the market.  RIP CHINA FUD. Buy the DIP, and HODL! |
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If Bitcoin doesn’t hit $115K by year end it will signal a breakdown on one of the most accurate prediction models. That departure alone might be enough to spook the market into a self fulfilling downward cycle of cascading liquidations. I don’t think it would be the end of Bitcoin, just the end of dreams of hitting over a million per BTC in 2025.
PlanB’s Stock to Flow? Bitcoin breaks predictive models. In fact, it doesn’t need a model. If S2F truly breaks down, I believe it won’t cause fear or panic. It will simply be priced in, and become just “another prediction model” proven wrong. It’s only a prediction, it’s not as consequential as the Chinese mining ban. |
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“ To avoid serious social and political discontent, leading to unrest and ultimately sociopolitical breakdown, the authorities will have to burst the bitcoin bubble before its macroeconomic importance becomes much greater. The similarity with bank runs is rather clear. If none of, say, the ten biggest providers of liquidity to Lehman Brothers had withdrawn their funding, in all probability no-one else would have done so. If those ten withdrew their funding, in all probability everyone would do the same. Similarly, as the ratio of “illusory-wealth-to-potential-income” in the economy gets bigger and bigger, the temptation for someone to jump ship and be the first to use their assets to acquire real resources becomes greater and greater.”
“ The longer that central banks wait before taking action to prevent a swelling of cryptocurrency bubbles, the more difficult they will make their task. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned bitcoin “investors” that they risk losing all of their money. But if the bubble first gets much bigger, its bursting will have significant macroeconomic effects, as spending financed by borrowing against bitcoin “wealth” vanishes. Worse, devastating losses will be inflicted on speculators, among whom will be more and more ordinary households. The fact that they have been warned will not prevent potentially seismic reactions.
Central banks and regulators thus now have an unenviable choice. Presumably, they will not want to be blamed by crypto “investors” for a burst bubble. So they may hope that it subsides of its own accord, then regulate it out of existence. But if the bubble keeps growing, they must grasp the nettle and inflict losses now, or face a future sharp-elbowed scramble to convert crypto holdings into goods and services, which will produce hyperinflation and destroy society.”
https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin-crypto/603510/how-a-bubble-in-bitcoin-could-lead-toBernard Conolly, the writer of this FUDticle, judges and blames the players/speculators of the market, and not the rule makers/THE FED to be held responsible if hyperinflation happens. This is Anti-Bitcoin propaganda, and FUD disguised as an objective opinion. They truly feel the threat. Buy the DIP, and? |
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Lmao. This is the nth time that someone has proclaimed BTC dead.
The truth is that there are probably just as many bitcoin holders in China right now who recognise the issue with the fiat monetary system and the central bank digital currency that the PBoC is trying to push out. Only regulated entities are going down.
A lot of miners and holders are unregulated, unregistered, and completely away from the prying eyes of the government no matter how hard they look - that's the beauty of a decentralised asset like BTC.
Plus what many people haven’t truly realized is that everytime there’s an authoritarian government flexing their political muscles to gain more control over the system, the more it gives open, permissionless, censorship-resistant systems like Bitcoin more value. Chinese government widened the gap, Bitcoin is still here to fill it. |
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77% of the population do not consider it to be good decision to make bitcoin a legal tender there.
That’s not good. Plus there’s Article 7 in El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law that states, “ Every economic agent must accept bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever acquires a good or service”. I believe El Salvador should never force their citizens like that. Support it, and make it Legal Tender, but force it? No, that’s not what it’s supposed to be. Bitcoin should be used according to its own good, not because citizens were forced to use it. Of course, the policies of the government are based on the needs of the majority of the population, and I think the pros and cons there are still there, but it seems that all the people there must comply with government regulations. and I think there will be many advantages which will become a reference for bitcoiners to stop by, so that the prosperity of the country will increase The prosperity of a country is not assured just by forcing a country to use a technology that their people are currently NOT comfortable of adopting yet. Encourage the use of Bitcoin through giving tax breaks, but the El Salvadorian government should never force anyone to use it. |
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