So much this. Once you get through your first bubble to the next one, it's hard to be too upset about any drop when it's still hundreds of % higher than what you bought at before.
I dont see a rise of hundreds of % at these levels. That was possible on single and double digits. But at three digits I cant really imagine that BT will ever trade for five digits. Really? Human psychology of dealing with large numbers aside, bitcoin could easily rise several thousand % from here. Will it rise anytime soon? I would say unlikely. I expect several months of meandering back upwards and once we retake 800 then its off to the races. But who knows, it is bitcoin right? There are optimistically say 2 million bitcoin 'users' globally. From Rpietila there are perhaps 14,000 people with more than 100 coins, another 85,000 with between 10 and 100 coins, and all the rest holding below 10 coins individually. Let's think about that for a moment - globally there may be less than 100,000 people holding more than 10 coins which comprise the overwhelming majority of all coins in existence. And really it is probably closer to 20,000 holding more than thirty coins. There are approximately 7.2 billion people on the planet. In 2011 there were 6 billion mobile phone active sims globally. There is a film floating about called 'The rise and rise of bitcoin'. There should be a film called 'The rise and rise of the smartphone'. What is happening right now is the creation of - in my view - internet 2.0. There are over a billion smartphones globally and in the next five years this technology will have spread like wildfire connecting everyone irreversibly. The internet has destroyed, altered or disrupted everything it has touched thus far. Postal services -> email. Conventional telephone -> VOIP. Conventional printed media -> blogging and 24 hour news sites. Hard films and digital media -> commercial streaming media (netflix) and torrents. Finance is next. Voting may follow that. Many think about the current price as a very high but they dont start doing calculations, we are still in a innitial phase, only investors and tech entusiast are in, IMAGINE when the people just start to buy bitcoin expecting nothing from it besides commodity and security in the payments, Curently we are all thinking about making profit but at the end (100,000 usd) people wouldnt even know that there was a time when bitcoin was worthless and only was bought by fortune hunters We are the wall street investors of 1940 We just need two more years untrammelled by US regulatory constraint and anyone holding bitcoin will be rewarded many times over. Nice market action overnight. |
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As Bitcoin proponents, is it not a little hypocritical for us to criticize "pump and dump" as something only applicable to alts and not Our Coin?  A pump and dump for an alt is usually a single and final act before that altcoin disappears from internet prominence. Bitcoin has bubbled several times over the last five years, but each time the price settles higher than its previous rise (2011 excluded). This is different to the altcoin sphere in general. So no i don't think it is hypocritical!  You never know darkcoin could be around in five years though, lets see! |
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So much this. Once you get through your first bubble to the next one, it's hard to be too upset about any drop when it's still hundreds of % higher than what you bought at before.
I dont see a rise of hundreds of % at these levels. That was possible on single and double digits. But at three digits I cant really imagine that BT will ever trade for five digits. Really? Human psychology of dealing with large numbers aside, bitcoin could easily rise several thousand % from here. Will it rise anytime soon? I would say unlikely. I expect several months of meandering back upwards and once we retake 800 then its off to the races. But who knows, it is bitcoin right? There are optimistically say 2 million bitcoin 'users' globally. From Rpietila there are perhaps 14,000 people with more than 100 coins, another 85,000 with between 10 and 100 coins, and all the rest holding below 10 coins individually. Let's think about that for a moment - globally there may be less than 100,000 people holding more than 10 coins which comprise the overwhelming majority of all coins in existence. And really it is probably closer to 20,000 holding more than thirty coins. There are approximately 7.2 billion people on the planet. In 2011 there were 6 billion mobile phone active sims globally. There is a film floating about called 'The rise and rise of bitcoin'. There should be a film called 'The rise and rise of the smartphone'. What is happening right now is the creation of - in my view - internet 2.0. There are over a billion smartphones globally and in the next five years this technology will have spread like wildfire connecting everyone irreversibly. The internet has destroyed, altered or disrupted everything it has touched thus far. Postal services -> email. Conventional telephone -> VOIP. Conventional printed media -> blogging and 24 hour news sites. Hard films and digital media -> commercial streaming media (netflix) and torrents. Finance is next. Voting may follow that. Half the world is unbanked and will soon be clutching a powerful unix workstation which is permanently connected to the net. If bitcoin can simply continue to exist, at current user adoption rates it must rise massively in value. Even if total bitcoin users rises from 1-2 million to just ten million the price will rise many fold. If by some wonderful stroke of luck bitcoin can survive and actually become a true transacting currency of the internet then todays prices will appear incredible. I know this is a speculation forum but patience is a virtue! |
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So. When we look at present price situation we can easily see that OP chart is looking more realistic than a week ago. Isn't? :-)
We haven't seen such rally from weeks ...
I am getting excited :-)
Rather late to the party aren't you? Bitcoin has stopped dead below the long term down trend from Dec 2013. Volume has been dying back all the time and the 1 day momentum indicators look to be maxed out. I think you are the only bear still posting since we broke out. I have been buying heavily down in the low 4xx's. It will be interesting to see how far this runs before it stalls and pulls back. I would be surprised if this is actual beginning of the next bull rally - seems a bit too easy tbh. Here is hoping we do get back up to the 8xx's on this run though. Did you buy back in Mat? |
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In the past, price has always went UP after any stable period.
I'm not sure how much longer the price will pretend to be stable, it may be weeks or months.
If the price drops from here and doesn't come back up, it would be a first in bitcoin history.
In 2013, the price may have went up after stagnation but that was because it was getting a lot of media attention and average Joes were buying in, this year, after many average Joes were robbed by exchange owners (not only MtGox) - 2 exchanges in my country stole the coins and money, this year my boy, its going to drop after stagnation.....is has been doing so since the beginning of 2014. then don't waste your time here, go do something with your life instead of wasting it on a dead horse... Shorting BTC, making hard cash USD, buying yo momma, kid. Welcome to ignored. Says the newb who registered on this forum just days ago? It's YOU who is on ignore. Also Cpt. Illiterate, it's "the price may have gone up after stagnation..." Kid with stupid logic. Also on ignore. New profile != newb. I will take profits from shorting over having good grammar any day, bagholder. Jeez. I am fairly sure you are a reinvented troll of the past. Anyway, /ignore. |
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With the dropping volume, the only chance to avoid another drop would be if some bitcoin salesman get some simpleminded rich person to buy a lot of coins from the market.
The only thing that keeps the price from dropping is the overheated mining bubble. Most don't want to sell this low, and admit that they don't see any ROI with their mining equipment.
But this is not a solid hold, but a desperate and fragile hold. When the first miners will start to think "fck it, I'll cut my losses and move on", then their sells will trigger an avalanche. Most of the miners who are holding are nervous and they will be motivated to cut their losses if it seems like it's best to sell higher now, then lower later.
I think that everyone who are holding bitcoin's at the moment for investment purposes are fools who are taking a needless risk. You could always buy back when there will be any news that give a real reason why bitcoin price should rise. Right now they are betting against the odds, because if nothing important happens, then the volume will continue dropping with the price.
Finally, a sane person here. "Anyone holding bitcoins at the moment for investment purposes are fools" Sounds like you don't hold any then, Mervyn. "Most of the miners who are holding are nervous" Not sure who elected you a spokesman for the mining community! The only conceivable reason you would hang around posting negative tosh on here every day - is the same reason the other newbie account trolls do likewise - you desperately want to buy bitcoins at a lower price than today. Come to think of it: fonzie, cosmofly, igorr et al seem to have gone awfully quiet. You have as much idea of which way the price moves as everyone else simply watching the price on here - that is none. Anyway, good luck in your accumulation! Kids watch the price and praise talk, big boys watch the volume and fundamentals. Yes well the fundamentals are something that seem to have been forgotten in this forum for several months. |
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There are no big investors coming. not at all.
What sane investor would buy bitcoin?
The long term chart for bitcoin looks terrible, it has CLEARLY been declining since it was created in 2009.
There never were any bubbles that surpassed the previous ATHs.
These past days/weeks it has NOT been stable.
The market cap is WAY too high. no room for growth.
No merchants and businesses are accepting bitcoin or are taking it into consideration whatsoever.
Bitcoin is not an innovation in technology.
In fact, the simple fact that there are rich people in the world who could buy bitcoin is a myth.
Nothing to see here. Now if you will excuse me, I gotta go at the casino and get rich playing slot machines.
Bravo |
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With the dropping volume, the only chance to avoid another drop would be if some bitcoin salesman get some simpleminded rich person to buy a lot of coins from the market.
The only thing that keeps the price from dropping is the overheated mining bubble. Most don't want to sell this low, and admit that they don't see any ROI with their mining equipment.
But this is not a solid hold, but a desperate and fragile hold. When the first miners will start to think "fck it, I'll cut my losses and move on", then their sells will trigger an avalanche. Most of the miners who are holding are nervous and they will be motivated to cut their losses if it seems like it's best to sell higher now, then lower later.
I think that everyone who are holding bitcoin's at the moment for investment purposes are fools who are taking a needless risk. You could always buy back when there will be any news that give a real reason why bitcoin price should rise. Right now they are betting against the odds, because if nothing important happens, then the volume will continue dropping with the price.
Finally, a sane person here. "Anyone holding bitcoins at the moment for investment purposes are fools" Sounds like you don't hold any then, Mervyn. "Most of the miners who are holding are nervous" Not sure who elected you a spokesman for the mining community! The only conceivable reason you would hang around posting negative tosh on here every day - is the same reason the other newbie account trolls do likewise - you desperately want to buy bitcoins at a lower price than today. Come to think of it: fonzie, cosmofly, igorr et al seem to have gone awfully quiet. You have as much idea of which way the price moves as everyone else simply watching the price on here - that is none. Anyway, good luck in your accumulation! |
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I'm only perceived as a bear due to the contrast that appears between me and uberturbobulls like rpetelia.
Actually you are perceived as a bear because all your posts are negative or bearish. |
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blah blah blah .....tin foil hats and area 51 ....alien invaders & the great jewish conspiriacy for sept 11
I live in the real world and @ this point crypto NEEDS to interact with fiat
Unitil we live in a utopian society where crypto is used for everything ... I will fill out my KYC forms so I can access mainstream instruments
or
Dont
You don't though. You live with your head rammed firmly up your arse. You are up the wall hyper. I can smell the caffeine and Prozac from here. Pots and kettles etc |
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Anyone want to ask me if I am still holding my 1200 BTC shorts now?
Chessnut? Are you online?
hehehe, good call, but don't get too cheeky real question to me is now: will we break 420 (which provided some minor support recently) on this leg down or not. daily lower BB sits at ~413, that's as low as I can see it go in the next days, in all likelihood. I actually do not know. It is possible that we will make a higher low and confirm ourselves in a consolidating channel - which will correspond with the consolidating longer term wedge. And then we will have the "come to jesus" breakout sometime later this month. That's a scary thought for bulls, because to breakout to the upside we need FRESH FIAT. Meanwhile this strong impulse down is screaming follow through, so we may get a chance to test this consolidation theory very soon. Bitstamp order book look scary - for the bulls Alot of the "bids" on Stamp and Finex are just for show. As soon as the market goes down 20-25% of them usually disappear. I just meant the totals of fiat waiting and btc for sale. Much worse ration than anytime recently How pray tell do you know the quantity of fiat on bitstamp in order to calculate that ratio? |
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Fuck. I should have listened when they told me Bitcoin was a pyramid scheme.   I appear to be firmly at the bottom of the pyramid but bitcoin has returned around %400 of my original investment. |
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OKAY
Here we go...
9:00 PM
Wednesday, May 7, 2014 (BST)
Time in London, UK
From what I am told There should be a huge volume over the next 72 hours.
Fill shorts and down we go !
(watch the accounts)
(fake breakout)
Stay safe!
Wannabet?
Yawn. |
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What makes bitcoin valuable: Distributed network, blockchain technology, anonimity, bitcoin community,etc. I think the 'era' of decentrilized mining is coming to an end, therefore the chance of attacks is highly likely. This is just waiting for the bomb to go off. We will see a slow decrease in value as this(the centrilization+losing of trust) is a gradual process. followed by a sharp drop after a 51% attack. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjtgp5h-jEY&list=PLzctEq7iZD-7-DgJM604zsndMapn9ff6qSo dump everthing while you can. ..so you can buy it? |
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You are repeating yourself. From "I have no idea where price is about to go" you conclude "Nobody can know where it'll go". Some form of Dunning-Kruger corollary, I suspect.
Re: $266. I never said we'd go there with certainty. Neither did windjc. He described a scenario where we could hit a price that low. But don't worry, I know: you don't think of events in term of (conditional) probabilities. "He said 266, so that means he thinks we will go there." I got the impression windjc is smarter than to think in binary terms.
I didn't say nobody can know where it will go. I said you don't know where the bitcoin price will go. You could admit that rather than spouting faux intellectual nonsense about cognitive bias. (Ironically enough I do think in binary terms when it comes to the eventual outcome of bitcoin.) |
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Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing. He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.
Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2.
Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).
Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.
You can predict the future price from the orderbook? The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend. Then you will see buying, and when miners see the price rising they will hold out for higher prices and supply will dry up, prices will rise, sentiment on here will magically follow price action and.. you've seen what happens next no doubt. Do i pretend I know when it will happen? No. But it does not require the intervention of a tooth fairy and I doubt any whale(s) entering the market and triggering a trend change will give advance notice to the trolls on here. Look, it's not our problem you're unable to read charts, or wrap your head around even the most basic aspects of TA. Furthermore, if you find yourself in a position where you accuse a (sometimes confrontational, but rarely trolling) user like windjc to be a permabear, who is posting just to manipulate the market, you can be pretty sure you will be one of the many suckers in this game who will learn the hard way that the rules of the market don't stop for Bitcoin. To be clear: There is disagreeing with someone's opinion or analysis, and then there is sticking your fingers into your ears shouting 'I can't hear you'. For more than a month now, the latter is the dominant response in here by the investors that were lulled into a false sense of security by the various loglinear trendlines that keep being posted in here so often. They will be in for a rude awakening: if they 'hodl' as advised, they will continue to spend many more uncomfortable hours and days seeing their net value decline. If they finally give in and sell, most of them will note that they haven't equipped themselves with the necessary tools to be effective traders, so they will lose as well. As a result, the majority will tend to hold, but they will become increasingly vitriolic at any suggestion that the return to the magic exponential growth trendline is not imminent: "Fuck you, reality! Why can't you already fall in line with my wet dreams of being a billionaire next year?" So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic. I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course. The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past. It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game. |
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Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing. He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.
Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2.
Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).
Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.
You can predict the future price from the orderbook? The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend. Then you will see buying, and when miners see the price rising they will hold out for higher prices and supply will dry up, prices will rise, sentiment on here will magically follow price action and.. you've seen what happens next no doubt. Do i pretend I know when it will happen? No. But it does not require the intervention of a tooth fairy and I doubt any whale(s) entering the market and triggering a trend change will give advance notice to the trolls on here. |
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This place is a vast improvement after putting the pothead on ignore. Or crack. Or whatever he blew his single digit coins on.
LOL @ Ibian the fkn noob retard who has a net buy-in price of around $800! Bought in at $100. But all the way up 'on the dips'...cos every dip is just a temporary retrace! Enjoy sitting around for months, if not years with your capital tied up in one of the most risky assets on the face of the planet just in order to break even. Doubling your money is your worst case scenario for the last 6 months... ouch!
Only a fkn arsehole would cherry pick such a 'fact' and broadcast it. If someone bought in 6 months ago, and have held all this time, then they are a fkn idiot. Not sure why holding an asset which has doubled in six months with the potential to once again go much much higher makes you a 'fkin idiot'. You managed to lose money in that timeframe by playing with leverage. In terms of managing risk there is a lot of room for the price to move south and for buyer of 6 months ago to still exit with no loss. If all bitcoin holders are stupid then why not sell all of yours and make this forum a brighter place by leaving? You won't because at the back of your mind, despite the recent price action, you know there is a good chance that the price will surge upwards on its next run and you don't want to miss out. Because though you won't admit it, bitcoin remains a great disruptive technology which could still change the world, and if it does, it is just about the strongest assymetric trade out there today. With all the price specific commenting on this forum that is something that i think gets lost in the noise of the shrill bearish chatter. That is why everyone is here, right? |
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Pretty much. There is less support (bid depth) now than there was then. Its just a matter of time before we make a run at 340. 3-5 posts earlier you were talking about 270, now it's 340, you have no clue what will happen, you just would like to see low price to jump on train. What? Ok, since you don't want to actually look at my post history in more detail, let me clarify for you ---> soon, we could make a run towards 340. If that does not hold, then we are in position to fall to 270 in the intermediate future. If all the chinese exchanges closed within a few days of each other, we could make a run at 270 even sooner. I don't know if we will, but I have been preaching for weeks, that unless we get some fresh fiat in here, we will continue to go lower. Look, its Monday - the best day of the week for bitcoin and the market is going lower. Whoduthunkit? Blah blah blah. You are a perma bear who posts constant clap trap to try and manipulate others on here to sell. You don't have the power to move the market, therefore you have no idea in which direction the market is going to move. You simply react. Any plonker can draw a downward sloping line on a chart and prognosticate, but the truth is you dont actually know and when the market turns upwards it will catch you out as always. Not sure why I took you off ignore, but that has now been remedied.  |
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Just a reminder that we are entering the 2-year downtrend now. Remember: financial decisions based on nothing but emotions are not good decisions. How will you feel when your 648 coins will worth about $1296?
Believe what you want, but all the SMART money is now buying up these cheap coins. One year from now, after another ATH and the inevitable downturn thereafter, you'll be writing the same FUD, while the bulls will be relaxing on their yachts in the Mediterranean. Yes someone is accumulating right now. No there is not going to be an ATH this year. We escaped from that type of trend a couple months ago. There may a large rally into the existing trading range, almost to ATH, but not a new ATH till the year after that. It is interesting how everyone on this forum can see the future so confidently (and yet so differently!). What is annoying is pretty much every person on this forum is a bitcoin bull, yet we have to wade through awful FUD from wallies like 'fr33d0miz3r' who are plainly bulls badly disguised as bears (because they are trying to lose their shirts short selling or have sold with the aim of rebuying in lower, which works until oops!). I will continue to trickle accumulate a few each month as always. |
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