Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

hot girls love bitcoin.

and you bears are selling ahahahahahaha

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

hot girls love bitcoin.

and you bears are selling ahahahahahaha

Those 2 mouths have too many teeth to consider them as a valid entry point.  

[oda.krell]

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

I know that this is your favorite stuff , about bitcoin "cultist" , but shouldn't a mod know that it has already been posted 10 times in this thread?

Thought it was worth reading once again considering the current climate.

And as time passes and the inevitable fizzle-out of Bitcoin becomes visible, those believers will splinter. More will drop out of the cult. And the ones who remain will only grow more convinced, more zealous, more eager to share the good news.

Remind you of anyone?

Should I start posting usernames or just the link to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist ? =))))))

Although I believe there is a bit of truth behind that article you can't argue that is comes from a person who is against BTC from the start and it doesn't even care to view the benefits the bitcoin protocol might bring.

+1

The article is onto something (many in here *are* cultists), but in their total dismissal of BTC the author isn't any better either.

It is misleading baloney to suggest "many in here" are cultists...   By many do you mean 100?  It is also degrading and disingenuous to suggest "many in here" are cultists.  

Try to stay objective, okay?

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

- Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.

- The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the /possibility/ of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0 (or at least, close to it), in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses /should/ be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses /are/ actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!". Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like, and look at the reactions. That's cultish.

- The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound like rallying cries, to keep the troops in line. It's like military esprit de corps, or, well, a cult.

In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception. To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

[chriswilmer]

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/doomsday-cult-of-bitcoin.html

I know that this is your favorite stuff , about bitcoin "cultist" , but shouldn't a mod know that it has already been posted 10 times in this thread?

Thought it was worth reading once again considering the current climate.

And as time passes and the inevitable fizzle-out of Bitcoin becomes visible, those believers will splinter. More will drop out of the cult. And the ones who remain will only grow more convinced, more zealous, more eager to share the good news.

Remind you of anyone?

Should I start posting usernames or just the link to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=mlist ? =))))))

Although I believe there is a bit of truth behind that article you can't argue that is comes from a person who is against BTC from the start and it doesn't even care to view the benefits the bitcoin protocol might bring.

+1

The article is onto something (many in here *are* cultists), but in their total dismissal of BTC the author isn't any better either.

It is misleading baloney to suggest "many in here" are cultists...   By many do you mean 100?  It is also degrading and disingenuous to suggest "many in here" are cultists.  

Try to stay objective, okay?

So now it's "degrading" to use the word cultist for, well, cult like behavior? I don't think so. As for the numbers, I don't have hard data, and I cannot have data because what I would call "cultish" is hardly a set-in-stone definition, but to give a few examples:

- Remember the guy who sold his house to invest it all in btc. Zero risk control, just puts all his wealth into one of the riskiest assets on earth. What's the overwhelming response in his thread? "Good on you! You won't regret it!". The dissenting voices are in the minority. That's cultish, in my book.

- The kneejerk reaction to mentioning the *possibility* of total failure of our little experiment. Please note, the exact likelihood of total failure (as in: price approaching 0) is up for debate, but I'm pretty sure a rational observer will admit that there is a real chance for the (publically traded) price to go back to 0, in case of catastrophic failure of parts of the network (like a major flaw on the encryption side), or some other event that causes an absolute loss of trust in the safety of the network. Try talking about that in here. The responses *should* be "Okay, that's possible, but unlikely." The responses *are* actually "No! Absolutely impossible! Logically invalid!". Go back a few pages when TERA suggested offhandedly what a blockchain "reset" would look like. That's cultish.

- The sense of "We're in this together, on the way up, and on the way down." It's only human to band together, but the article is spot on when it points out the phrasing of those "public messages" by well known BTC community members, that sound a lot like rallying cries in times price goes down. That's looks a lot like military esprit de corps, or, well, cultish behavior.

In case this is important to you, I still believe BTC has a real shot at success (where the exact type of success is up for debate). But I completely agree with Blitz: a lot of arguments in here are very clearly not motivated by rational analysis, but by make believe and selective perception. To call it "cultish" is confrontational, but not wrong, in my opinion.

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.

[inca]

Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing.  He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.

Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2. 

Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).

Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.

You can predict the future price from the orderbook?

The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend. Then you will see buying, and when miners see the price rising they will hold out for higher prices and supply will dry up, prices will rise, sentiment on here will magically follow price action and.. you've seen what happens next no doubt.

Do i pretend I know when it will happen? No. But it does not require the intervention of a tooth fairy and I doubt any whale(s) entering the market and triggering a trend change will give advance notice to the trolls on here.

Look, it's not our problem you're unable to read charts, or wrap your head around even the most basic aspects of TA.

Furthermore, if you find yourself in a position where you accuse a (sometimes confrontational, but rarely trolling) user like windjc to be a permabear, who is posting just to manipulate the market, you can be pretty sure you will be one of the many suckers in this game who will learn the hard way that the rules of the market don't stop for Bitcoin.

To be clear: There is disagreeing with someone's opinion or analysis, and then there is sticking your fingers into your ears shouting 'I can't hear you'. For more than a month now, the latter is the dominant response in here by the investors that were lulled into a false sense of security by the various loglinear trendlines that keep being posted in here so often.

They will be in for a rude awakening: if they 'hodl' as advised, they will continue to spend many more uncomfortable hours and days seeing their net value decline. If they finally give in and sell, most of them will note that they haven't equipped themselves with the necessary tools to be effective traders, so they will lose as well.

As a result, the majority will tend to hold, but they will become increasingly vitriolic at any suggestion that the return to the magic exponential growth trendline is not imminent:

"Fuck you, reality! Why can't you already fall in line with my wet dreams of being a billionaire next year?"

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.

[oda.krell]

[...]

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.

You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?

[N12]

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.

Nice strawman, I see we have departed from the discussion at hand. Or do you believe this accusation for real?

[chriswilmer]

[...]

I think what you feel is healthy skepticism I (and perhaps others) feel is unnecessary pessimism. For any new idea or technology, it's basically a given that it almost certainly won't work -- and there are hordes of people who will trip over themselves to be the first to say "that's a stupid idea." In the early stages (and Bitcoin is certainly in its early stages), the most useful observations and discussions about a technology are its potential benefits, not its pitfalls. The opposite is true for well established ideas / technologies. It is not interesting or useful to say "computers are great!" or "the Internet is great!" today because it is obvious, but if you have reason to be critical of these things, then you have an independent idea worth listening to!

People who think Bitcoin is stupid VASTLY outnumber those who are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's potential. I think being optimistic about Bitcoin, despite enormous social pressure to be otherwise, is quite noble.

You have a point there (that crossed my mind as well, but I decided against mentioning it to keep it simple)... for any group to overcome overwhelming odds, some form of 'extreme group cohesion plus unwavering belief in ultimate success' is necessary.

Still, from my point of view, this unwavering belief in the /success/ of Bitcoin that is so common in here is just as irrational as the unwavering belief by the general public in the /failure/ of Bitcoin.

Can you appreciate this distinction, between the perspective that I understand might be necessary for Bitcoin to have a chance at success (i.e. the "cultish" fervor), and what I hold to be 'objectively true' (or an approximation of objective truth)?

Sure... some people posting here may be irrationally optimistic. I wouldn't call them cultists though (even if that's what I thought), because it's derogatory. If I thought that people were over-valuing Bitcoin, I would probably make a few posts along the lines of "You guys should stop buying and start selling, Bitcoin is cool, but it's not THAT valuable" and then if nobody listened to me I would just stop posting.

[oda.krell]

Windy is hardly a perma bear, he's one of the few here who actually changes his opinion after weighing up what the market is doing.  He was very bullish for the second half of last year, even before the upturn in November.

Everyone seems to be in denial (cue pictures of Egyptians) at the moment but what he is saying is pretty basic -- people have to buy BTC for the price to go up and there is no new currency on the order books, the bid/sum ratio is creeping back to 1:2. 

Everyone seems to think the toothfairy is going to wave her magic wand and buy 50K BTC out of nowhere (but I suspect she is a bit disillusioned with BTC and its associate fraudsters, dodgy exchanges, bans and bad press).

Now, more than ever, its time to realise BTC is about the technology not the currency.

You can predict the future price from the orderbook?

The price has fallen back from the ATH. Last month it hit the low 3xx's. It takes a relatively modest amount of buying to improve the technical picture and break us definitively out of this down trend. Then you will see buying, and when miners see the price rising they will hold out for higher prices and supply will dry up, prices will rise, sentiment on here will magically follow price action and.. you've seen what happens next no doubt.

Do i pretend I know when it will happen? No. But it does not require the intervention of a tooth fairy and I doubt any whale(s) entering the market and triggering a trend change will give advance notice to the trolls on here.

Look, it's not our problem you're unable to read charts, or wrap your head around even the most basic aspects of TA.

Furthermore, if you find yourself in a position where you accuse a (sometimes confrontational, but rarely trolling) user like windjc to be a permabear, who is posting just to manipulate the market, you can be pretty sure you will be one of the many suckers in this game who will learn the hard way that the rules of the market don't stop for Bitcoin.

To be clear: There is disagreeing with someone's opinion or analysis, and then there is sticking your fingers into your ears shouting 'I can't hear you'. For more than a month now, the latter is the dominant response in here by the investors that were lulled into a false sense of security by the various loglinear trendlines that keep being posted in here so often.

They will be in for a rude awakening: if they 'hodl' as advised, they will continue to spend many more uncomfortable hours and days seeing their net value decline. If they finally give in and sell, most of them will note that they haven't equipped themselves with the necessary tools to be effective traders, so they will lose as well.

As a result, the majority will tend to hold, but they will become increasingly vitriolic at any suggestion that the return to the magic exponential growth trendline is not imminent:

"Fuck you, reality! Why can't you already fall in line with my wet dreams of being a billionaire next year?"

So just to be clear: anyone who doesn't think the price will imminently fall to 266 or lower is neither able to read charts nor understand 'even the most basic aspects of TA'? Interesting logic.

I am failing to hear any meaningful arguments as to why the price will drop another 60% to your desired target. Other than you want it to and are positioned appropriately of course.

The truth is you have absolutely no idea where the price will be in a month, a year or further out. Unless you can move the market you are simpl making a guess based upon the past.

It is probably worth remembering that this is the speculation (not trading) forum my good chap. Trading is for most people a mugs game.

You are repeating yourself. From "I have no idea where price is about to go" you conclude "Nobody can know where it'll go". Some form of Dunning-Kruger corollary, I suspect.

Re: $266. I never said we'd go there with certainty. Neither did windjc. He described a scenario where we could hit a price that low. But don't worry, I know: you don't think of events in term of (conditional) probabilities. "He said 266, so that means he thinks we will go there." I got the impression windjc is smarter than to think in binary terms.

[octaft]

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one.  So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were.  In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I'm beating around the bush heavily, but with no intent to troll. It's just that people don't really know what they want until you make them think about it. I'm asking you questions to make you think about it. Imagine it an effort to open your eyes to my opinion -- that it's harder than it seems to moderate a forum and judge what is acceptable -- without gracelessly shoving it down your throat.

That's ridiculous.  NOW, you are being patronizing.. attempting to suggest that you are somehow coming from a place of higher knowledge.  You certainly do NOT know enough about me in order to come to those kinds of conclusions, even if you did happen to read all of my posts on this forum  Additionally, I have already experience several of your responses that tend to inform me that even if you had read all of my posts, either you did NOT understand half of their content or you are purposefully failing to take into account half of their content.

You seem to be wasting my time, your time and the time of anyone who may happen to be reading this interchange between us with your purported attempts to teach.

Want me to be blunt about it? Over-moderation is dumb, no forum worth posting on does it, and I often skim your posts for relevant material because I feel they tend to ramble on, sometimes incoherently, so forgive me for missing an important sentence or two every now and then.

Was that straight-forward enough for you?

[Bronstad]

Why is everyone all butthurt in this thread yet again? All this bickering is such a downer. It's a beautiful day, Bitcoins are great!

People are willing to give you over $400 for just one!!

Ripple got a bank, doge got a car, crypto-currency is becoming more and more a normal daily thing.

Brighter days are ahead my friends, just be mindful of the bumps.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KFR]

Why is everyone all butthurt in this thread yet again? All this bickering is such a downer. It's a beautiful day, Bitcoins are great!

People are willing to give you over $400 for just one!!

Ripple got a bank, doge got a car, crypto-currency is becoming more and more a normal daily thing.

Brighter days are ahead my friends, just be mindful of the bumps.

+1   

I'm with Blitz on Ripple though.

[aminorex]

Use of the term cultist is definitely pejorative and dismissive.  

Referring to bitcoin as a risky asset is questionable.  If you refer to it as a volatile asset, that is objectively true.  In ordinary English, as in a clear conceptualization of the space, riskiness and volatility are distinct.

[boumalo]

Why is everyone all butthurt in this thread yet again? All this bickering is such a downer. It's a beautiful day, Bitcoins are great!

People are willing to give you over $400 for just one!!

Ripple got a bank, doge got a car, crypto-currency is becoming more and more a normal daily thing.

Brighter days are ahead my friends, just be mindful of the bumps.

Adoption takes time, most people that know about Bitcoin probably learn about it in the last 8months

I went into hibernate mode with my bitcoins. I don't even bother look at the price that much. Once every few weeks I reckon. I will consider getting excited once the price is over 1000 again or it goes to 0 and I can finally remove the client from my PC.

See you in a month or two. I am just mining litecoins right now. Not bother selling/trading them either.

A lot of people think like you; people that stress out every time there is a 10% drop will end up selling too early

[aminorex]

A lot of people think like you; people that stress out every time there is a 10% drop will end up selling too early

or 50% for that matter.  the hype cycle is a brutal ride.

[adamstgBit]

Why is everyone all butthurt in this thread yet again? All this bickering is such a downer. It's a beautiful day, Bitcoins are great!

People are willing to give you 1BTC for only a bit more than $400

Ripple got a bank, doge got a car, crypto-currency is becoming more and more a normal daily thing.

Brighter days are ahead my friends, just be mindful of the bumps.

FTFY    

[adamstgBit]

poeple appear to be more fearfull this week.

[UglyTroll]

The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha