Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cech4204a]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

any clues ? gox was so obvious that even policemans would see the scam. 1-2 months of delays for withdraws ...cmon where is that in exchanges out there today ? nowhere.

[windjc]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

Pretty much.

There is less support (bid depth) now than there was then. Its just a matter of time before we make a run at 340.

[cech4204a]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

Pretty much.

There is less support (bid depth) now than there was then. Its just a matter of time before we make a run at 340.

3-5 posts earlier you were talking about 270, now it's 340, you have no clue what will happen, you just would like to see low price to jump on train.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

Pretty much.

There is less support (bid depth) now than there was then. Its just a matter of time before we make a run at 340.

3-5 posts earlier you were talking about 270, now it's 340, you have no clue what will happen, you just would like to see low price to jump on train.

What? Ok, since you don't want to actually look at my post history in more detail, let me clarify for you ---> soon, we could make a run towards 340. If that does not hold, then we are in position to fall to 270 in the intermediate future.

If all the chinese exchanges closed within a few days of each other, we could make a run at 270 even sooner.

I don't know if we will, but I have been preaching for weeks, that unless we get some fresh fiat in here, we will continue to go lower.

Look, its Monday - the best day of the week for bitcoin and the market is going lower. Whoduthunkit?

[rpietila]

I don't need hours. I need minutes. That how long it takes to sell a bunch of shorts and buy some longs. 

I am not man enough to do short speculation in this market. Perhaps going speculatively long is my way to go, or just forget about it until there is low-hanging shortable fruit at $7k...

Meanwhile, while we go to 270 and maybe below, your idea of "buying all the bitcoins" is exactly what we don't need. We need more bitcoins in the hands of more people, not less.

When the price goes down, the ownership concentrates (manipulator/whale accumulation, large speculator buying). It's during the booms that new people buy trickles and coins are dispersed. Both are good to keep the coins in the hands that value them the most.

[akujin]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

any clues ? gox was so obvious that even policemans would see the scam. 1-2 months of delays for withdraws ...cmon where is that in exchanges out there today ? nowhere.

Is bankruptcy the only possible reason for an exchange to close?  

[windjc]

I don't need hours. I need minutes. That how long it takes to sell a bunch of shorts and buy some longs. 

I am not man enough to do short speculation in this market. Perhaps going speculatively long is my way to go, or just forget about it until there is low-hanging shortable fruit at $7k...

Meanwhile, while we go to 270 and maybe below, your idea of "buying all the bitcoins" is exactly what we don't need. We need more bitcoins in the hands of more people, not less.

When the price goes down, the ownership concentrates (manipulator/whale accumulation, large speculator buying). It's during the booms that new people buy trickles and coins are dispersed. Both are good to keep the coins in the hands that value them the most.

I don't think a lot of big coin holders are going to buy more coins. Maybe a few.

There might be money on the sidelines, smart people waiting to come in - in a semi-institutional way if the price drops too low.

But if you look closely at the exchanges you can see that its the same players passing the coins back and forth - some losing money (because they are in denial) and some making money (because they aren't).

[cech4204a]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

any clues ? gox was so obvious that even policemans would see the scam. 1-2 months of delays for withdraws ...cmon where is that in exchanges out there today ? nowhere.

Is bankruptcy the only possible reason for an exchange to close?  

still asking, any clues or you are just affraid ?

[rpietila]

I don't think a lot of big coin holders are going to buy more coins. Maybe a few.

There might be money on the sidelines, smart people waiting to come in - in a semi-institutional way if the price drops too low.

But if you look closely at the exchanges you can see that its the same players passing the coins back and forth - some losing money (because they are in denial) and some making money (because they aren't).

The total value in the exchanges is less than $1 billion (WAY less). Your observation is very much true concerning the current state of affairs, and there is nothing that would prevent it from continuing several more months. The prediction contest will quite soon (tomorrow, actually) reveal the crowd opinion about when the rise would start. But similarly as there is nothing that could force it go up now, there is also nothing that can prevent the coming rise when it is due.

If you think I am amongst those in denial, at least I am seasoned enough not to trade now

[cech4204a]

Just to think about... There was 4 days no fresh fiat on bitstamp, at least 3 days on kraken (don't know if fidor worked on friday) and and other exchanges inside EU zone, 2 days (weekend) on other exchanges. Here is also china FUD... So bottom line, we didn't even fall so much  

More optimistic then ever  

very good point, fresh fiat can cause some jump, and people had some time to reconsider investing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

Pretty much.

There is less support (bid depth) now than there was then. Its just a matter of time before we make a run at 340.

3-5 posts earlier you were talking about 270, now it's 340, you have no clue what will happen, you just would like to see low price to jump on train.

That's how bears roll. Pulling random numbers out of their ass while screaming and crying how the crash is coming. They're not even putting any effort in it.
It's sad. They have no shame.

[TeeBone]

Just to think about... There was 4 days no fresh fiat on bitstamp, at least 3 days on kraken (don't know if fidor worked on friday) and and other exchanges inside EU zone, 2 days (weekend) on other exchanges. Here is also china FUD... So bottom line, we didn't even fall so much  

More optimistic then ever  

^ Exhibit 38492

Windjc, i voted Denial as well. Twilight-zone level. We've got a ways down to go.

[Amechan]

What happened to Loaded?

[akujin]

What if another gox-like dump happen? 62% drop from 430 = hello 266.. LOL!  

any clues ? gox was so obvious that even policemans would see the scam. 1-2 months of delays for withdraws ...cmon where is that in exchanges out there today ? nowhere.

Is bankruptcy the only possible reason for an exchange to close?  

still asking, any clues or you are just affraid ?

Afraid of what? LOL!
It's been hammering bitcoin's price for more than a month now... I can't believe you're too stupid to see that..

Anyway, I'm gonna spoon-feed the moron so here you go. Here's one  
 http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/chinese-bitcoin-exchange-fxbtc-closing-510-unprecedented-pressure-peoples-bank-china/2014/05/02

[JayJuanGee]

For example?   If I call your ideas or your conclusions "stupid-ass," I am NOT calling you stupid ass... I am suggesting that your argument is baseless or lacking facts or lacking logic or does NOT follow from the information that is known. 

So I am NOT sure what you mean about me NOT leading by example? I rarely engage in personal attacks of other posters, besides suggesting some of their ideas are fucked (or some other explicative).  ONLY sometimes I get pissed off a little bit more than may be necessary at someone pursuing a bunch of silly ass ideas and/or seeming to want to argue, just for the sake of argument.

You may be correct that from time to time I go too far  in my comments, and I could be a little more polite.  That is possible.  However, a problem with having a forum without rules is that it becomes contagious to engage in this kind of conduct (or potentially a disadvantage if a poster refrains from it) or even irresistibly tempting to throw out a few extra explicative, here and there.   

You know the expression that it may NOT be very useful to bring a knife to a gun fight.  Accordingly, the rule of the community sometimes affects conduct.

Ultimately, I believe for the most part I am fairly restraint in the area of personal attacks that I make or my stating conclusions without some basis.  I am pretty minimal with FUD-like spreading... so I would like to hear what you believe from you assessment of the situation that I do or say that is NOT leading by example?

What I mean is calling my conclusions "stupid-ass" doesn't serve much purpose but to antagonize, especially when I haven't drawn any real conclusions (other than the joke one that I gave you the little wink on and everything). You can word that a lot better and still get your point across.

Yes, it is possible that I used words that were stronger than necessary to make my point; however, without really being able to put my finger on the situation, exactly, I am getting the sense that you are being quite disingenuous with your pursuit to engage me in various topics, including this one.  So maybe my language was a bit stronger than it needed to be - even though I was attempting to be descriptive of my frustration that you seemed to have been purposefully missing various points attempting to describe matters in ways other than what they were.  In the end, I think my response was appropriate and within a context in which the response seems to fit.

I honestly am not bothered by a little bit of antagonizing. Then again, I'm not the one who wants stricter moderation.

I am NOT bothered by some antagonism, too, b/c I expect some of this to take place whether forums are strict or not there is going to be antagonism b/c we are dealing with quasi-anonymous posts. 

Yes, I stated my opinion that the forum would be better with more policing and/or elimination of trolls.  However, I do NOT really expect it to change anytime soon b/c there seems to be considerable tolerance for trolls in this forum.  I will deal with the antagonism, but I remain unafraid to express my preference for better moderation.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't think of the upcoming drop so much as a prediction, but as a painfully obvious feature of the chart that I thought we all agreed on.

I did NOT know that there was any one chart that everyone agreed upon.  I am NOT even sure if everyone agrees that the sun is coming up in the east, tomorrow.   

[JayJuanGee]

Just a little disappointed in myself that I did not short more. I had plenty of time to do so and I was a little too cautious, as bulls have been putting up a fight (sort of) and I hedged my bets, so to speak.

There is still a chance we get a bump before the crash, but I'm not too optimistic.

There are major storm clouds on the horizon right now.

At what price point would have you shorted?  We have been floating between $430 and $460 for more than 2 weeks, so if you really expect a crash, what  is the difference between shorting now at $430 instead of $460.. NOT much different.

Personally, i am NOT as confident as you are purporting to be about some inevitable fall in prices - even though a fall in prices is possible, I do NOT want to get screwed in the event that prices do NOT fall... safer in my view to HODL...

[rpietila]

For those who are reasonably well-informed about where the price is going, check out the odds at this competition:

After your entry, you have 50mBTC at stake, and there is 1,400mBTC in the prize pot, divided among 8 contestants.

That's 3.5x return (+250% EV)!

Compares pretty well with the negative-sum games of shorting bitcoin..  

About 14 hours left.