One step closer to the top.
1. 2011-06-09 W. Avg: 29.58
2. 2011-06-08 W. Avg: 27.25
3. 2013-02-16 W. Avg: 27.16
4. 2013-02-15 W. Avg: 26.99
5. 2013-02-13 W. Avg: 25.48
6. 2013-02-14 W. Avg: 25.46
7. 2013-02-12 W. Avg: 25.09
8. 2011-06-10 W. Avg: 24.67
9. 2013-02-11 W. Avg: 24.13
10. 2013-02-10 W. Avg: 23.42
11. 2013-02-09 W. Avg: 23.24
12. 2013-02-08 W. Avg: 22.42
13. 2013-02-07 W. Avg: 21.61
14. 2013-02-06 W. Avg: 21.09
15. 2013-02-01 W. Avg: 20.73
16. 2013-01-31 W. Avg: 20.58
17. 2013-02-05 W. Avg: 20.57
18. 2013-02-04 W. Avg: 20.42
19. 2013-02-03 W. Avg: 20.26
20. 2011-06-13 W. Avg: 20.11
No more sub $20 days in the to 20 days! |
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Quite easily...
and the award for completely sidestepping valid points goes to........ you. not me.  hint: how many algebraic terms do you think one would need to construct a polynomial function that estimates price? That's because I agree with your points about calculus, volume, and momentum. It depends on how much information you have. If you knew everything you could likely reduce it to a very small number of variables (ie big players). If you are trying to tease it out of a bunch of noisy signals, quite a few. Your example was just a quadratic shifted linearly. I've seen those before. i'm glad we agree on something  im not sure if your formulation would work though. i'm talking about a function that traces the actual path of the price, which could be estimated by a function of only one variable with a really, really large taylor expansion (c1 x^n + c2 x^(n-1) + c3 x^(n-3) ... + cn x + C) rather than one which solves for price given multiple parameters f(n, V, N) where n= number of large players, V=daily volume, n=good news or something like that. the beauty of taylor approximations is that they're possible. any differentiable function of one variable can be estimated by a polynomial to any arbitrary precision. but that's besides the point. the original example was a mixed cubic. its derivative was a mixed quadratic. good on you that you know that it has a basic cup-shaped graph but you wouldn't be able to, for instance, immediately tell me what its intercepts and minimum value were without a little bit of math. if you have the graph in front of you, these things are immediately obvious. but this explanation is mostly for other readers anyway, as it seems we are in agreement as to why representing the data graphically is advantageous. If you're going past x^4 and you don't have a damn good reason you are overfitting. Why would you try to model price like that? |
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Quite easily...
and the award for completely sidestepping valid points goes to........ you. not me. hint: how many algebraic terms do you think one would need to construct a polynomial function that estimates price? That's because I agree with your points about calculus, volume, and momentum. It depends on how much information you have. If you knew everything you could likely reduce it to a very small number of variables (ie big players). If you are trying to tease it out of a bunch of noisy signals, quite a few. Your example was just a quadratic shifted linearly. I've seen those before. |
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everyone buying BTC become rich
is there free candy and infinite energy, too? this is such a joke. trading is zero-sum. everyone CANNOT become rich. still following? take the bulls out of your ears. everyone cannot become rich.okay, good. hopefully i've gotten to a few of you finally. While your bold statement is correct, it is entirely possible for everyone that reads this forum regularly at this point in time can become rich. There are a lot more people who haven't even heard of bitcoin yet. |
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ahhh i was waiting for this thread... The squiggly lines only tell you what has happened, not what's going to happen.
you're quite wrong. read on. Avoid [TA subscriptions] and save your money / bitcoins.
this i can agree with because of the conflict of interest between making truthful calls and leading lemmings for personal profit. PRICE and only PRICE should dictate your actions as a trader.
this shows how inexperienced of a 'trader' you are. volume is just as important, as are price momentum and moving averages and plenty of other pieces of data to lesser extents. I think there is some legitimacy in it, in that it gives you a mathematical framework with which to analyze the market. It's not perfect and you'd be foolish to rely on it alone, but it does give some insight into price and volume fluctuations that price data alone cannot give.
+1 Of course you'd need to look on the volume and the temporal pattern as well as on the price.
But isn't that just common sense? Do we really need formulas and graphs to arrive at such a basic insight??
can you visualize the derivative of f(x) = x^3 +2x^2 + 1? of course not. Quite easily... but we know mathematically that it is f'(x) = 3x^2 + 4x. and we can graph this. and then we can visualize it. price is a very, very complex function and graphs are extremely useful at visualizing the relationship between different sets of data. you would be 110% correct if it werent for one important oversight: self fulfilling prophecy.
while this does come into play, TA works even without this mechanism. how? you might ask. technical analysis in general is just applied calculus. as a rule the momentum of the price changes before the price does. this is equivalent to saying that the derivative of an increasing function begins decreasing before the function itself does, and vice versa (which answers the question of how can past performance 'predict' future results). in other words, get your heads out of your asses. you don't need to understand stochastic calculus to understand TA (most algorithms are algebraic transforms of price and volume), so go to chart school and stop shitting on our parade. |
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As for now...
The topic of Wordpress and Reddit "accepting" bitcoin.
They do not. They accept USD from third parties, which in turn sell the bitcoins to obtain the currency or take the equivalent loan for the payment (which has been confirmed at least for bitpay). That this has become the common settlement for accepting bitcoin is irrelevant. Only a complete economic cycle constitutes real economic growth.
In this state Bitcoin acts not as a currency and is essentially a trading game with the possibility to cash out into certain goods and services. The missing essential part are cases where business are paying their expenses to other business as well as re-investing their profits for expansion using bitcoin. Payment processors negate this effect to the extent that it could already be happening, so in a economic sense they hindering development.
The effect this has is that investors get even more entrenched in the idea that all Bitcoin needs is more publicity, think that sites dealing with payment processors will supply it and enlarge their position.
Addendum to yesterdays post: Worse as I mentioned above there is a strong possibility that the payment processors do not sell a large portion of their Bitcoin in order to not impact the market which requires them to get in debt in the fiat economy. Essentially it means that core infrastructure might be affected by the same kind of debt trap some of the private speculators are in. Of course the extent of this happening is all speculative but I am fairly confident that this happens.
We can't jump from here to there. Payment processors will make bitcoin usable to those who aren't willing to take on unnecessary risk. This will lead to more comfort with the idea of bitcoin and eventually to holding part of the income in bitcoin. The processors allow you to set what percentage you want to keep in bitcoin, so merchants can start with 100% USD and adjust is as they wish. |
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over the last two years I have grown to loathe gold and silver in every non-shiny, non-tangible shape and form.
That's one of the objectives pursued through authority "open" market operations, since almost nobody in the West gets the difference between non-shiny and tangible. over the years, the tsunami should build as the shift begins.
Amen to that. Maybe the masses have more trust in electronic means of exchange than I assumed... It doesn't matter to most how it works, so long as it works for someone they know. |
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Nevermind, I see it generates a pdf. I can convert that to a png.  |
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Ok this summarizes it pretty well. Data is from: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitfloorUSD.html http://i47.tinypic.com/107uql0.pngThis R script will generate the above updated according to the bitcoin charts schedule. If someone knows how to host it and have it update in this thread automatically that would be cool:
#Set the estimated proportion payed back
est.payed.back<-.017
#Get Data from bitcoincharts
bitfloor<-read.table("http://bitcoincharts.com/t/trades.csv?symbol=bitfloorUSD&start=0",
sep=","
)
##Convert Times from Unix
times=matrix(nrow=nrow(bitfloor), ncol=6)
time.string=NULL
for(i in 1:nrow(bitfloor)){
timeStamp<-ISOdatetime(1970,1,1,0,0,0) + bitfloor[i,1]
date<-strsplit(as.character(timeStamp), " ")[[1]][1]
yr<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][1])
mo<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][2])
day<-as.numeric(strsplit(date, "-")[[1]][3])
ToD<-strsplit(as.character(timeStamp), " ")[[1]][2]
hr<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][1])
min<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][2])
sec<-as.numeric(strsplit(ToD, ":")[[1]][2])
times[i,]<-cbind(yr,mo,day,hr,min,sec)
time.string<-rbind(time.string,as.character(timeStamp))
}
bitfloor<-cbind(times,bitfloor)
colnames(bitfloor)<-c("Yr","Mo","Day","Hr","Min","Sec","UnixT","Price","Vol")
##Set First Timestamp bitfloor was open after hack
post.hack.open.time<-as.numeric(head(
bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==2012 & bitfloor[,2]==9 & bitfloor[,3]==21),],
1)[7])
##Divide into pre and post hack data
pre.hack.bitfloor<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,7]<post.hack.open.time),]
post.hack.bitfloor<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,7]>(post.hack.open.time-1)),]
#Generate cumulative volume and fees
pre.hack.bitfloor<-cbind(pre.hack.bitfloor,
cumsum(pre.hack.bitfloor[,8]*pre.hack.bitfloor[,9]),
cumsum(pre.hack.bitfloor[,8]*pre.hack.bitfloor[,9])*.005
)
colnames(pre.hack.bitfloor)[10:11]<-c("cumUSD.Vol","cumFee")
post.hack.bitfloor<-cbind(post.hack.bitfloor,
cumsum(post.hack.bitfloor[,8]*post.hack.bitfloor[,9]),
cumsum(post.hack.bitfloor[,8]*post.hack.bitfloor[,9])*.003
)
colnames(post.hack.bitfloor)[10:11]<-c("cumUSD.Vol","cumFee")
#
##Set Timestamp of first payout
payback.time.one<-as.numeric(head(
bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==2012 & bitfloor[,2]==12 & bitfloor[,3]==1),],
1)[7])
##Split into pre and post payout
pre.payout.one<-post.hack.bitfloor[which(post.hack.bitfloor[,7]<payback.time.one),]
post.payout.one<-post.hack.bitfloor[which(post.hack.bitfloor[,7]>(payback.time.one-1)),]
#Generate cumulative volume and fee data
pre.payout.one[,10:11]<-cbind(
cumsum(pre.payout.one[,8]*pre.payout.one[,9]),
cumsum(pre.payout.one[,8]*pre.payout.one[,9])*.003
)
post.payout.one[,10:11]<-cbind(
cumsum(post.payout.one[,8]*post.payout.one[,9]),
cumsum(post.payout.one[,8]*post.payout.one[,9])*.003
)
#
##Get months from unix timestamps
month.labels=data.frame()
for(y in 2012:2013){
for(m in 1:12){
unixT<-bitfloor[which(bitfloor[,1]==y & bitfloor[,2]==m),7][1]
month.labels<-rbind(month.labels,cbind(unixT,month.name[m]))
}
}
month.labels<-month.labels[which(!is.na(month.labels[,1])),]
month.labels<-month.labels[2:nrow(month.labels),]
##Misc
Total.Value.Stolen<-25000*tail(bitfloor[,8],1)
Total.Value.Payed<-est.payed.back*Total.Value.Stolen
##Make Plots
dev.new()
layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,3,2,2,2,4), 2, 4, byrow = TRUE))
plot(bitfloor[,7],bitfloor[,8], type="n", xaxt="n",
xlab="Time",
ylab="USD/BTC",ylim=c(0,(max(bitfloor[,8])+5)),
main="Bitfloor Price History"
)
axis(1,at=as.numeric(as.matrix(month.labels[,1])),
labels=as.character(month.labels[,2]))
lines(pre.hack.bitfloor[,7],pre.hack.bitfloor[,8], col="Green")
lines(pre.payout.one[,7],pre.payout.one[,8], col="Red")
lines(post.payout.one[,7],post.payout.one[,8], col="Blue")
abline(v=payback.time.one)
plot(pre.hack.bitfloor[,7],pre.hack.bitfloor[,11], xaxt="n",
xlab="Time",
ylab="Cumulative Fees Generated (USD)",
xlim=c(min(bitfloor[,7]),max(bitfloor[,7])),
type="l", lwd=3, col="Green",
main=c("Bitfloor Cumulative Fee Revenue",
"Before Hack Rate= 0.5%, After Hack= 0.3%")
)
axis(1,at=as.numeric(as.matrix(month.labels[,1])),
labels=as.character(month.labels[,2]))
lines(pre.payout.one[,7],pre.payout.one[,11],
type="l", lwd=3, col="Red"
)
lines(post.payout.one[,7],post.payout.one[,11],
type="l", lwd=3, col="Blue"
)
abline(v=payback.time.one)
barplot(c(
Total.Value.Stolen,
Total.Value.Payed
),
ylab="USD", ylim=c(0,1.1*Total.Value.Stolen),
names.arg=c(paste("Value Stolen=", Total.Value.Stolen),
paste("Value Payed=",Total.Value.Payed)),
col=c("Red","Green"),
main=paste("Estimated Payed Back=",100*est.payed.back,"%")
)
barplot(c(
max(pre.payout.one[,11]),
max(post.payout.one[,11])
),
ylim=c(0,1.1*max(c(max(pre.payout.one[,11]),max(post.payout.one[,11])))),
ylab="Fees Generated (USD)",
names.arg=c(paste("Hack to First Payout=", round(max(pre.payout.one[,11]),1)),
paste("Since=",round(max(post.payout.one[,11]),1))),
col=c("Red","Blue"),
main="Fees Generated Since Hack"
)
It did take some effort so if anyone finds it useful: 13oEWYh1tEM6voFp2XmBoD6CCCbidkk2Xm If you can make it output to an image file, I'd be glad to put up a link and a cronjob to update it once a week. |
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@notme - which one are you using now? I tried bitstamp, but not really happy
I'm pretty happy with bitfloor. |
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we're here The difference is we made a higher high this time. |
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I am not so sure about that. People seem overly confident right now. Any dissenting opinion is quickly
shouted down with the bitcoin manifesto mantra. This forum allows people to hear what they want to
hear over and over again....
+1 Its a complete Echo chamber/ Hugbox around here lately. Come on! There hasn't been a rocket pic posted for at least a week!  |
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It is stopping about now  Maybe i cannot even get reliable data right now to determine what is going on... mtgox server is terrible eh? You would have thought they could handle such volume by now mtgox is terrible... they clearly don't give a fuck and I've been much happier since I quit using them. |
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So far the current correction has brought us all the way back to..... a week ago. new highs!
C'mon bears, is this all ya got!?
FTFY |
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is goxlive dead?
just goxxed gox is so 2011 |
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It was a massive, cruel beartrap.
I think it was funny.  Not for those in it though. Seriously, if one were even slightly bearish/not bullish enough, he would probably fall for it, it was a bloodbath.
Day trading! a day in the life I see the price fall... i can feel a knife coming. i place a ask at 25.5 on virtex and it fills! Yaye i got out Just In Time Price crashes down! down! Down! Ok watch for bottom... looks like 21's not breaking Quick Quick Place bid at 22 .... out bid Quick Quick Place bid at 22.3 .... out bid Quick Quick Place bid at 23 .... out bid .... out bid .... out bid .... out bid ops i think... i fucked up...  You just described my late spring and early summer in 2011. Fuck daytrading this market. This time I'll just ride and continue to dollar cost average. If I find myself with too much money in bitcoins, I'll spend a few like I've done many times. It's really starting to be easier than credit cards for most things I would buy online. Just an address I can copy and paste and an amount instead of typing in a 16 digit number, a date, and a 3 digit number after I go get my physical wallet. It's going to get even easier with the payment protocol and the lack of product availability is quickly evaporating. To me it makes sense to hold my excess funds in bitcoin, even knowing it will go against me at times. Dollar cost averaging will ensure that I stock up when prices are low. |
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the price chart alone makes no counterpoint to anything. it is the same chart, just harder to see the relative growth rate when you look at absolute values, that's all - not everybody can make the mental exercise of taking log of a graph.
What we are interested here is not an absolute value, but a percentage growth - value % added in a period of time - which is a log chart, meaning the speed at which bitcoin adopters / holders / speculators / users crowd grows.
And about statistics - that bottom line, 4x minimum yearly growth, is being confirmed for three years in a row now, and has yet to be broken. That is somewhat statistically significant, and unless we break below that line ($16 now, $32 in august) it will only be strengthened.
3 samples can not possibly give you a very high significance level. |
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6. Keep balanced between fear, greed and logic
Important. Look around now to see how to not do it. This is independent of whether it turns out OK this one time. People are acting in a contagious mass frenzy. This is not good and not how to do it.I see a lot less frenzy than the last time we were at these levels. I am not so sure about that. People seem overly confident right now. Any dissenting opinion is quickly shouted down with the bitcoin manifesto mantra. This forum allows people to hear what they want to hear over and over again.... True, but this forum is becoming a smaller and smaller portion of market makers. |
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6. Keep balanced between fear, greed and logic
Important. Look around now to see how to not do it. This is independent of whether it turns out OK this one time. People are acting in a contagious mass frenzy. This is not good and not how to do it.I see a lot less frenzy than the last time we were at these levels. |
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