kinda seems shady.. Why not just buy from mtgox?
Because here in Brazil, to send money to another country, we need to pay 17% taxes!!!! Then how are you going to pay for the bitcoins you want someone to send you? I suggest setup an ASICminer satellite mine in Brazil. Pay for Space, Electricity Internet and Security with BRL, and in return sell Space, Electricity Internet and Security for the ASICminer satellite mining operation in XBT . Net result export local consumed services import XBT. (Obviously ASICminer's produce is virtual and is not part of the business.) Good call. You could even make it a generic mining hardware hosting service. |
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How much cash do you own? Not value of your house, but real cash. Anyone got saved up for investing? Or we all broke and borrowing? Who's actually got money to invest in bad economy?
Are you asking how much USD I have that I could spend on Bitcoin or the USD value of the Bitcoin I hold? |
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They are arbitrarily aligned
Hmm... Right, they seem arbitrarily aligned even on the X-axis, with search volume data shifted to the left. Just noticed that. This chart actually proves that it's mostly price spikes that cause the search volume spikes, rather than the other way around, since if you align them properly, price spikes would come first. Whether the data series have different units is irrelevant if you are trying to establish a correlation / causal relationship. Correlation is always up to a factor, and it doesn't matter if that factor is measured in (USD * month) / (BTC * Searches). But you do have to align them on the X-axis properly. And, again, search volume might be an indicator of demand, but since BTC supply was reduced at the end of 2012, and price is determined by demand _and_ supply, OP definitely needs to take that into account if he is trying to make a point. These two data series have different units. They are arbitrarily aligned, so "above" and "below" have no significance.
I made no mention of causality, only that crosses are not significant. I personally believe price causes search volume but the reverse does not hold. There is a stronger (though still weak) case for the term "buy bitcoin" since this is an indication of someone specifically looking for a source of bitcoins (usually a new user, although existing exchanges having problems can also increase the search volume). |
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Is it true that if you say Atlas's name three times in a row he will appear out of the ether?
Atlas, Atlas, A... I'm scared. You first. I'm afraid the consequences will never be the same if someone summons him...  Atlas Atlas Atlas I am here bro You are not him. |
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Sorry, I made a typo and was talking about deflation in the Yen, not inflation in the dollar. And yes, you always have to pay the piper in the end. If it doesn't come in cash, it will come in blood.
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Is it true that if you say Atlas's name three times in a row he will appear out of the ether?
Atlas, Atlas, A... I'm scared. You first. I'm afraid the consequences will never be the same if someone summons him... Atlas Atlas Atlas |
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WTF 3 Edit: Not Edited Edit2: Not edited Well, shoot, it used to. Edit3: Again not edited. Not edited at all Strange, I see it on your post above. |
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With a password-protected file that is dl before an event is supposed to happen does not really need a timestamp.
If I'll read this thread next year then I will not know if you edited your post or not. But you cannot edit block chain. Posts show last edit if you hover over the time... I'll edit this one. Edit: Edited Edit2: Well, shoot, it used to. Edit3: I still see it on other posts, maybe it just doesn't show on your own posts. Edit4: I'm no longer a ninja  . |
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With a password-protected file that is dl before an event is supposed to happen does not really need a timestamp.
If you trust the admins here, posting the hash is easy enough. Putting it in the blockchain is complicated, but it allows for a trustless timestamp. |
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kinda seems shady.. Why not just buy from mtgox?
Because here in Brazil, to send money to another country, we need to pay 17% taxes!!!! Then how are you going to pay for the bitcoins you want someone to send you? |
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It's easy to prove you were right if something happens tomorrow without revealing so called "insider information" today. Create a document describing what's going to happen, and upload the hash to blockchain. This way we can verify that cause of the crash was known to you before. Otherwise... you know. GTFO  That is a really interesting use of the Blockchain. It is like mailing a letter to yourself, but a bit more secure.  I'm naive here. Once the hash is on the blockchain, how do you unlock and share it? Or? A hash is a different thing entirely from encryption. A hash takes data and scrambles it. It will always scramble the same data the same way, but there is no way to recover the data from the hash. By publishing the hash you establish that at the time of publication you had access to the data. When you later reveal the data, the hash can be verified. So a hash is used to prove the timing of the message, and it is not the message itself? Just want to be clear on this methodology so that noobs can better put it into practice... The message can be used to verify the hash, but the message can not be recovered from the hash. |
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Actually, since money is only "printed" by issuing government debt and because interest rates are still above 0% in the long run they are creating more demand than they create supply. When assets fall cash is king. Markets are pushing up interest rates for both governments, which means they have to sell assets to keep rates in check. They can't afford to let them rise, Japan especially so. That said, I'm holding onto my Yen for at least the next few months. I only buy USD when I need to pay bills.
I'm not sure if you're misunderstanding QE or I am misunderstanding your argument. When the treasury issues debt almost none of it is bought by traditional buyers (banks and other financial institutions) at this point in time. You have primary dealers who buy the debt when it is issued and then immediately sell it to the fed. The fed doesn't actually have the money to buy this debt so it instead adds credits to the accounts that these primary dealers keep with it. While this isn't actually printing money, most money today isn't printed anyway, it only exists electronically it has the same effect, the money supply increases. Money isn't printed by the issuing of government debt, it is only printed when the fed adds to the accounts of primary dealers, the two are not the same. It is added to the accounts of the primary dealers yes, but the government also has to pay it back to the fed. When the Fed buys these treasuries from the primary dealers (ie prints money) it has the double effect of reducing the amount of treasuries available for sale on the market. This lowering of supply increases the price which in turn lowers the yield. So not only is the fed monetizing the debt it is also forcing down the rate that the treasury has to pay, regardless of the risk/reward ratio perceived by the market. Currently the 30-year treasury is yielding about 3.3% a year nominally which means unadjusted for inflation. The real (inflation adjusted) yield on those bonds is much closer to 0%. I'm not sure how familiar you are with zero interest rate policy but that is the trap that Japan has been in for the last 20ish years. Once a government commits to a near 0% interest rate it is almost impossible for them to go back to anything else. debt service payments soon outstrip all tax revenues and even a 1% rise in rates would destroy the government's budget. Thus the central bank has to monetize more and more debt and a vicious cycle is born.
These primary dealers then take this money and have to do something with it, they are profit oriented they cant just sit on this cash. The hope at the federal reserve is that the primary dealers will take this money and invest it in the form of loans which will in turn spur economic growth and lower unemployment. Instead these primary dealers are investing in risk assets (stocks and corporate debt primarily) in order to get some yield off all of the new found cash. Thus we have the risk asset bubble, sponsored by the fed, that will, at some point int he future, come crashing down.
This is why their has not been much inflationary price pressure even though the fed is currently printing $85 billion a month. The money isn't going into circulation, instead it is being used to bid up the price of risk assets. This is exactly what happened during the dotcom and housing bubbles. Easy credit from the fed was invested in risk assets which eventually came tumbling down when the fed was forced to turn of the spigot.
I'm not sure what you mean by they are creating more demand then supply so I cant address that directly. Also what assets have you seen either government sell? their is no need to sell assets when the central bank is perfectly willing to monetize the debt. Interest rates have largely been rang bound since the financial crisis and in the grand scheme of things are significantly lower than they have ever been for this long of a time period. ZIRP is like crack for governments, once you get addicted your hooked for life. While Japan and the US both cant afford to let rates rise that is still compatible with devaluing the currency as I have outlined above. What matters is who is able to devalue faster Japan or the US.
The demand is created because the US government now owes the value of the treasury to the fed. Yes, before the maturity date it is inflationary, but the debt eventually comes due. I'll just leave this here:  Debt levels in Japan are still as high as they were when deflation began. |
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... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now.
re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!"
... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.
Higher price leads to higher difficulty. Higher difficulty does not lead to higher price. |
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 Its the first time in History that the Bitcoin price is significantly above general public's interest for a lengthy time period. It could mean that only bitcoin owners adding to the existing stock and broader public moved on. If this is the case, price can not be sustained on the long run. Of course it could mean a whole lot of other things. Anyone is free to digest this info in the preferred way. Its just another piece to the puzzle . These two data series have different units. They are arbitrarily aligned, so "above" and "below" have no significance. |
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It's easy to prove you were right if something happens tomorrow without revealing so called "insider information" today. Create a document describing what's going to happen, and upload the hash to blockchain. This way we can verify that cause of the crash was known to you before. Otherwise... you know. GTFO That is a really interesting use of the Blockchain. It is like mailing a letter to yourself, but a bit more secure. I'm naive here. Once the hash is on the blockchain, how do you unlock and share it? Or? A hash is a different thing entirely from encryption. A hash takes data and scrambles it. It will always scramble the same data the same way, but there is no way to recover the data from the hash. By publishing the hash you establish that at the time of publication you had access to the data. When you later reveal the data, the hash can be verified. |
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Impossible. Bitcoin does not scale to over 7 tps at the moment, and there's a significant controversy among influential people on whether the limit should ever be altered. Many influential developers do not want bitcoin to scale up. At the very most, Bitcoin could replace some "official" fringe pseudocurrency, such as the SDR. At the moment... The core Bitcoin network can scale to much higher transaction rates than are seen today, assuming that nodes in the network are primarily running on high end servers rather than desktops. Bitcoin was designed to support lightweight clients that only process small parts of the block chain (see simplified payment verification below for more details on this). A configuration in which the vast majority of users sync lightweight clients to more powerful backbone nodes is capable of scaling to millions of users and tens of thousands of transactions per second. https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/ScalabilityFrom the "Current bottlenecks" of your own link: Today the Bitcoin network is restricted to a sustained rate of 7 tps by some artificial limits. These were put in place to stop people from ballooning the size of the block chain before the network and community was ready for it. Once those limits are lifted, the maximum transaction rate will go up significantly.
This is the optimistic viewpoint, but as mp420 points out, there is likely to be a lasting hard fork if anyone tries to raise this limit. Unless the new, unrestricted chain takes a new name there will be fighting and confusion over which chain is "bitcoin". The good news is if such a fork happens any coins you have at the time of the fork will be spendable on both chains. |
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Now that you have a question I can answer:
First Choice: USD
Everything I need to pay for to survive requires USD, and short term it should remain fairly strong.
Second Choice: Yen
The long term deflationary trend looks to be holding on strong. I don't see an end to it until government debt levels come down in Japan. Yen would have been a horrible choice 6 months ago, but it is looking good today.
My fear with both of these currencies is that their central banks are undertaking a policy of aggressive devaluation. While right now this might not be a problem their is a huge potential for inflationary pressure especially 12-24 months down the road. I'd rather take my fiat out in a stable currency, then convert to USD (since that's what I use every day as well). Actually, since money is only "printed" by issuing government debt and because interest rates are still above 0% in the long run they are creating more demand than they create supply. When assets fall cash is king. Markets are pushing up interest rates for both governments, which means they have to sell assets to keep rates in check. They can't afford to let them rise, Japan especially so. That said, I'm holding onto my Yen for at least the next few months. I only buy USD when I need to pay bills. |
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I agree with your overall point, but the data doesn't quite tell the story you are trying to portray. The piece you are missing is that the 2011 run up and the recent run up in difficulty were both triggered by a new technology that dramatically improved the efficiency of mining. In 2011 it was GPUs and in 2013 it is ASICs. ASICs are still being deployed and I expect a minimum of triple the current hash rate before we see difficulty top. As much as 10X the current difficulty may happen, depending on how the price goes. <-- Again, I agree price ultimately drives difficulty, but technology improvements shift gears. That being said, as soon as 28nm ASICs make up the majority of the network, we will see technology improvements capped by Moore's Law. We will then be in "top gear" and we can drive this thing like we stole it.
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$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)
Difficulty is not measured in dollars. |
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Now that you have a question I can answer:
First Choice: USD
Everything I need to pay for to survive requires USD, and short term it should remain fairly strong.
Second Choice: Yen
The long term deflationary trend looks to be holding on strong. I don't see an end to it until government debt levels come down in Japan. Yen would have been a horrible choice 6 months ago, but it is looking good today.
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