God willing.

You are assuming that we will stay at $60k or above during the next 3 days? 

Today is pretty much a done deal that we will stay above $60k; however, we will need to complete two more days of staying above $60k after today in order to successfully kick off the remaining $50ks.

I think that the odds are somewhere in the ballpark of greater than 73.6129446% that we will stay above $60k in the next two days, but I probably would not want to place higher odds than that give or take 1.5%, in terms of my own personal approximation of the matter.

I had not been online in the past 15 hours or so, and so I had not know about this, so I did a quickie google search and found a few links, and yeah it is all over the news, and yeah sure maybe several of the on-the-spot articles are saying the same things, and probably there is going to be all kinds of discussion of the significance of these kinds of matters and potentially ways to fight what the US Govt is deeming to be crimes..

And yeah, is the USA Govt going to be successful in terms of going after individuals who are going to get put in jail and faced with potentially expensive legal fees (and perhaps in need of some pretty good lawyers, which surely we likely realize that even the lawyers might have difficulties arguing against overreach, injustices and rights to privacy, self-sovereignty and financial freedoms), and sure when you identify individuals, that will scare others away from developing and working on such privacy services, including like you suggested, the potential of ramping up the kinds of targets all the way down to node operators and perhaps the operators of private wallets too... so yeah, overreach and desperation of the USA hegemony tends to have snowballing effects.

1) https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/04/24/samourai-wallet-founders-arrested-and-charged-with-money-laundering/

2) https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/federal-prosecutors-charge-samurai-wallet-founders-with-money-laundering/

3) https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/04/25/samourai-wallet-charges-raise-existential-questions-for-privacy-tech/

4) https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/samurai-wallet-gets-the-chop-as-feds-twist-the-knife

5) https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/the-state-of-things-open-source-developers-arrested-for-writing-code

hahahahaha

Stay the fuck calm!!!!!!!!!!!

Of course, it is hard to build and maintain an emergency fund, reserves and a float, so if you cannot do that, then you are using your BTC investment as a form of trading and/or gambling rather than investing, since for poor people it is more important to build and maintain an emergency fund, reserves and float asince they are going to need those kinds of funds in order to avoid dipping into their bitcoin investment.. and if you don't do it, then your bitcoin investment will likely never build because you will keep dipping into it, and it will never end up building up to much of anything to actually make any BIG difference in your life.


Why are we talking about rich and poor? Yeah it is true that both need to have those extra funds, but a rich person may have a variety of investments to choose from, so it seems to me that the point that I was attempting to make was about the greater necessity for the poor to develop better financial practices in order to build and create excess funds even if you are not sure what you are calling them and perhaps they are even inadequate, but they are better than nothing, yet in the mean time you have to figure out your own balance, and even though I am saying a minimum of 3 months for your emergency fund, you can do what you like, even if you might be engaging in emergency fund numbers that I might conclude to be inadequate.. but you are the best judge of your own situation and hopefully it all ends up working out for you if you are intending to build a bitcoin investment.. and you are wanting to give it priority, so if you screw any of the things up, then you are going to be the one that has to live with those screw ups whether that is under-alllocating into bitcoin or under-allocating or over-allocating into an emergency fund..


The only thing that I was saying about a a rich person was that if he already reached fuck you status, then he may well already be drawing upon his bitcoin investment (or other investments that he has), so if he might have to draw 3-6 months rather than just 1 month, that may likely not really affect him very much, since he may well already have extra... so when we are talking about rich, there are levels, and someone who is not quite to fuck you status, may seem rich to a poor person, but he could damage his investment into BTC a lot if he is not managing his balancing of his cash and including his maintenance of various emergency funds..

I cannot tell you.  Since part of the justification for diversification is that you don't necessarily have all of your value in one thing, and I am not even suggesting that diversification is a good or necessary thing until maybe you start to get to the point that you have more than a year's income/expenses in bitcoin.

Sure, there are going to be some people who decide only to invest in bitcoin and cash an to maintain a bit of a narrow set of assets, but that surely could end up getting them in trouble if something ends up happening to bitcoin.

So  yeah, you are investing money into bitcoin that you don't need for 4-10 years... but you are expecting bitcoin to still be alive and well in those later times after you had invested so much into it, and surely I can understand that, and I cannot exactly tell you what to do, except for just say that bitcoin is not guaranteed, and if you are not protecting yourself, then no one is going to bail you out... so you have to figure out some kind of ways that you are happy with the level of balancing that you are doing regarding what kinds of things that you have besides bitcoin, and if bitcoin is the ONLY thing that you have, then you might be in a situation in which you are not diversified enough.. and no one can tell you what other things to invest into, whether it is property, stocks, bonds, cash equivalents, commodities or whatever (and surely I am not suggesting shitcoins at all, but some folks might keep some value in shitcoins - hopefully not more than a few percentage, but there is no way to stop people from coming to conclusions about what they are able to do based on what kinds of resources they have).

Maybe you don't even really need to be thinking too much about diversification in the first 4-10 years of your bitcoin investment, and there surely are some rich folks who likely are not diversified enough, but that is how they live.  There is a famous quote from Warren Buffet in which he says that you gain your wealth through concentration, yet you preserve your wealth through diversification.

I have not updated my own chart that describes wealth distribution recently (since it was last updated in mid-2022), but even though I have a lot of value in bitcoin, I started out with enough wealth in other kinds of assets that they would be able to support me, so even though my bitcoin has become greater than 80% of all of my other holdings, the other 20% of everything else could support me if bitcoin were to go to zero.

So, no one can tell you what to do or how to do it, but hopefully as you invest and you grow your investments and you learn along the way, your own portfolio and your decisions along the way will inform you about how to make those kinds of distribution, allocation and/or redistribution and/or reallocation decisions.

Yes.  Newbies make all kinds of mistakes, and there is ONLY so much handholding that anyone can do.

If I say get started as soon as possible, I am not saying put everything you have into BTC, so that would  be dumb, and maybe for some people, getting started right away will be working on buying $10 worth of BTC, and they are still going to have to figure out their own level of disposable/discretionary income in order to know their budget, so I am not personally talking about getting in and out, I am referring to an investment into BTC that is 4-10 years or longer, which should mean that they are both using money that they are not going to needs, and they also realize that the investment could end up going down rather than up, including going to zero, so there is a need to both invest accordingly, but to study bitcoin and your own personal circumstances, even if there is a suggestion to get started right away.  Anyone who invests too much, tries to trade or gamble or does not figure out his/her own budget and psychological situation will end up suffering the repercussions of that if such negativity outcomes end up playing out.

Forums like this provide opportunties to brainstorm and interact, but each person still has to figure out his own situation, make his plan and apply his strategy in accordance with his own circumstances.


Yes.. a lot of people are irresponsible with their finances and with their emotions, so it can sometimes take a while to figure out some good balance that involves investing rather than gambling.  If someone has an income of $1.5k to $3.5k per month, and $1.8k worth of expenses (and perhaps mostly an income of $2.5k) , he already should know how to maintain a budget so that he is able to pay his expenses even during months in which the income is lower than the expenses.   He also might realize that he usually has $700 per month of discretionary income, but he has to figure out ways to make sure that he has various cash cushions, so maybe he might start out by investing $350 per month into BTC rather than $700 per month.. So he has to figure out the details of how to manage his cash including some of the inconsistencies of income and perhaps some inconsistencies in terms of expenses too...

So yeah, if he has no financial cushion of emergency fund, reserve funds and/or float, then he should put those systems in place, and if he does not do it and gets all excited about bitcoin, then he is likely going to suffer the consequences of not building and/or maintaining financial cushions.. which can be learned in the event that common sense does not exist for such a person..  which I presume an overwhelming majority of folks are able to learn skills of personal financial management, even if a lot of folks might exercise bad practices and are somewhat unable/unwilling to moderate their financial management (and emotions).


That is their problem is they are engaging in gambling practices rather than investing practices.  Who is going to hold their hands? 


Investors with good practices have abilities to profit from those folks who develop and employ bad practices.  I see no reason to pander to the folks with bad practices, and they can have fun getting reckt over and over.. If we aspire to good plans and good practices, then some folks will learn from those, and there is ONLY so much that we can do to help or to feel sorry for folks who have inabilities to control their emotions, to make plans and to follow through with solid plans and practices.

I already gave an example, and someone like the one I described above with around a $700 per month discretionary income, who might be very skeptical of bitcoin might decide to ONLY invest $10 or $20 per week into bitcoin, and others might decide $100 and the one that is overly aggressive might decide to invest close to $200 per week into bitcoin, and it is only feasible and or reasonable to become more aggressive with their income after they make sure that they have good and solid personal financial management systems into place, but if they do not have good and solid systems (including their emotions), then why should we be overly sympathetic to them?  They need to get their shit together and exercise personal responsibility in terms of managing their finances and their emotions and if they have never learned those kinds of things, those kinds of things are within the realm of self-teaching and there should be a lot of common sense elements to them, even though there may be some needs to put good practices into place and practice the good practices over and over in order to learn how to discipline ones own self in his/her finances and emotions..


I am going to blame them, and I am going to call them dumb and I am going to call them gamblers... who may well have had overly invested and failed/refused to put their own financial/emotional management systems in place.  I see no reason to defend such persons or to suggest that any of us need to aspire to being sympathetic to such poor people who are engaged in processes of failing/refusing to establish an appropriate position size (perhaps through DCA), gambling and self-sabotage rather than building of themselves and/or their finances.

By the way, some folks might be investing into bitcoin with funds that they believe are discretionary income, yet it is not.. so they are investing with money they need or they believe they need for expenses (or wants), so if they don't have discretionary income that they are able to set aside for 4-10 years or longer and even be prepared that whatever they invested into bitcoin could go to zero, then they probably should not be investing into bitcoin.. or at least they cannot call themselves investors, rather than either traders or gamblers (yes, trying to play a less than 4 year wave in bitcoin is trading and gambling rather than investing), and maybe if someone gets through a whole 4 year cycle, then maybe at that point they might have had started to accumulate enough BTC in order to switch away from BTC accumulation and perhaps into some other kind of a strategy, that still might include BTC accumulation but might have a bit more flexibility, versus perhaps the first 4 years may well be best to ONLY focusing on buying BTC and forget about selling BTC, which means choosing a position size that is within their discretionary income and not money they need in the short term, and perhaps money that they never need. .even though surely we all invest because we believe it is a good place to put our money and to increase our options in the future, but no investment is guaranteed, including bitcoin, even though bitcoin is likely amongst the best (if not the best) investment available to normies around the world.. but the normies still need to temper their behavior to an appropriate position size and reasonable/prudent approach that fits their own circumstances... and perception of BTC prices is only one of the 9 factors that I already mentioned (cited/linked in the first paragraph above).


Even though it is good to have abilities to get out of BTC, so that you maintain ways to get in and to get out, but at the same time, there may well need to be an creation of a BTC exit strategy from the start, especially if the investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, there could be ways to figure out various exit (or withdrawal) strategies after having had been in the investment for 4-10 years or longer.. and surely some young folks may well take 4-10 years or longer just to build a position, and they might not even have enough BTC after 10 years, so they still may figure out that they are in the building stages 10 years  from now.


People can figure out ways to tap into their BTC - especially after they have spent time building their position, but there are needs to be careful about ways in which a person taps into their investment, especially if they are still building it, yet each person has to figure out their own balancing in regards to when they might be in a position to start tapping into their BTC rather than continuing to build it.


Your emergency fund is something you build up and would be 3-6 months of your expenses/income and it is not a continued expense that you have.. even though while you are building it, then it might be  certain percentage of your income until you get up to an amount that you have contained in such fund.

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers, but many folks have a hard time even putting away 10% of their income for savings and/or investing, so that can be why it could take so long, even 10 years to build up a whole years worth of savings/investing.
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The more that you are able to save/invest, then the faster that you can build up your investment portfolio, but people frequently are not in positions to save/invest such large amounts, so they have to make sure that they have their discretionary income in order prior to even being able to invest anything... discretionary income is the difference between income and expenses, so it is money that you do not need.. There are some rare folks who are able to save/invest higher than 25% of their monthly income.. but that is not too common.. but it is possible if you can get high income and lower your expenses.  those are not typical, so it is better to attempt to describe situations that are more realistic... even though sometimes folks could either increase their income or descrease their expenses in order to have more money for savings/investing.

According to the article, it looks like April 30 is the date of the actual sentencing.

Edit:  Similar to what Biodom and AlcoHodl pointed out...

I don't give too many shits about the 200-DMA. (Daily)

However, I do remain quite a bit obsessed with the 200-WMA. (Weekly)

Think about it, the 200-DMA is the average BTC trade volume price for nearly 7 months, so that is a fairly short-term indicator, and the article describes it as a "long term indicator" which may well be true for traders, but fuck traders.  hahahahahaha  #nohomo

So yeah, the 200-WMA is tracing the 4-year BTC traded average BTC price, and so it is a much longer period of time, and so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY been trending up (and so it is continuously making ATHs), and from my perspective, it is both important for long term holding and for valuating your BTC stash, which also might help you in terms of managing your BTC stash, too..

I do get a tiny bit excited about the 100-WMA, but still not as excited as I do about the 200-WMA, since the 100-WMA is an indicator that is based on 2-year weighted price averages rather than so many advantages that come from the 200-WMA since it is over a whole 4 year BTC cycle... so yeah, those shorter indicators are of lesser interest to me, even though sometimes I might glance at some of them, but I don't really care too much about them since any kind of strategies that I attempt are mostly either completely neutral to indicators, which would be the employment of raking practices, or they revolve around the 200-WMA, which I have been working on honing some of those ideas through my discussion of sustainable withdrawal ideas and/or discussions around fuck you status.

Each person should be tailoring his investment to his situation, and surely there should be less ability to aggressively invest into bitcoin if you are brand new to investing and brand new to bitcoin, and so if you don't have your shit together, including having some consideration of the 9 individual factors.

And, surely I m not even suggesting that someone needs to know all his/her 9 fatoprs prior to getting started, since one of the most important things in bitcoin is to get started, yet merely because you should get started, does not mean that you should go all in, yet a newbie can consider creating a target of anything like 5% to 25% of his income to go into bitcoin, but yeah, that won't work too well if he had not figured out his discretionary income (in order to not go beyond it) and to perhaps create an emergency fund that is 3-6 month of income/expenses, but I am not even saying that the newbie guy has to create an emergency fund prior to getting into bitcoin, but if he does not have one, then he may want to pace both his entrance into bitcoin and his establishing of his emergency fund, which could cause some delays in terms of getting any kind of decently sized starting bitcoin allocation... but yeah, everyone is responsible for himself, including if he fucks up, he overinvests, and he has to sell at some time that was not in his initial plans, but there still might be ways to recover his situation, even if part of the solution might be to regroup and to sell a bit of BTC, and hopefully at least the portion that is sold is profitable (minimally) even if it might not have been a good idea to sell it,  there are sometimes needs to regroup and reasses and maybe some of that can be done slowly over time (which tends to be my favorite way of doing things), and other times, there may be needs for more extensive and quick measures in order to get things back to a more balanced state of being.

This is a weird way of talking about an emergency fund, and sure you may well be including the idea of emergency fund with the idea of reserve funds and cash floats, yet one of the things about an emergency fund, it is generally not a part of something that you take from your income as a percentage, because once you have established it, you don't need to keep adding to it... .. so yeah, whatever you are doing might be working for you, but it might not be workable if a true emergency were to come, then usually you would need 3-6 months of income/expenses within such a fund in order to be able to get through the emergency situation (such as loss of cashflow and/or some high expenses that had not been anticipated). 

I surely don't have any problem with the idea of replenishing your emergency fund, even though emergency funds should almost never be used absent a true emergency, so usually you would be using your float and/or your reserves prior to even needing to dip into your emergency fund.

By the way, the management and maintenance of emergency funds, reserves, and floats tend to be way more important for poor people even though it likely is difficult for poor people to establish such funds and such good personal financial management practices.  Rich people may well have a variety of investments and they can actually use one of them for their emergency funds, and also if someone is at or near fuck you status, then they can actually use their investments as emergency funds, since maybe they are already able to draw from their investment at a monthly rate, so they are able to draw an extra 3-6 months from their investment without much of any problem, presuming entry-level fuck you status could be anywhere between 12-25 years of income already in your investment (and with BTC I am valuing the BTC holdings at the 200-WMA rather than at BTC spot price).


If you been in bitcoin since your forum registration date of August 2016, then surely it is possible that you have accumulated enough BTC, yet to me, you sound like you are looking at bitcoin like a trader, and you are ultimately likely to be ending up selling too many BTC too soon, because you do not recognize and appreciate that long term investing and building wealth takes time, and when you get there, you are likely able to recognize an ability to start to make withdrawals... but yeah, if you are fucking around and trying to figure out when to sell in order to buy back cheaper, then you are playing a different game, and you are likely going to have fun staying poor because you are selling too many BTC too soon instead of having a plan that ultimately results in being able to either engage in sustainable withdrawal practices or raking practices. Raking practices can usually be started quite a bit before sustainable withdrawal practices, but guys can come to differing conclusions in regards to employing such practices.


Sure.. so what.. there are people who overinvest, and they don't know how to treat bitcoin like a long term investment rather than worrying about playing the price waves.  Those are temptations that each of us have to overcome in terms of putting practices into place in which we make sure that we have long term accumulation plans that don't necessarily involve selling until after we might have already created a decently sized BTC stash.


It is not understandable to use part of your BTC as your emergency fund, unless you have already reached near or close to your fuck you status... but yeah, people use a lot of things for their emergency fund when they have not established a good practice in regards to their emergency fund, their reserves and their float... which should be part of any sound investment in which you want to choose which assets to sell instead of being forced into selling your BTC at a time that is not completely of your own choosing.


We are not talking about trading in this thread.  Don't let the "buy the dip" throw you off.

The year is with 4 digits. #justsaying you fisherman wannabe.  


You sound like a "Jam tomorrow" kind of guy.

No problem.  You do you.


There should be dashes (like this "-") between the year, the month and the day... otherwise, your report might not get picked up by the script, if one of your goals might happen to be to have your information included in the table... oh and include number of days of pushups like Mayor of ogba mentioned.


How is your report going to get included if there are too many numbers in there.  You are going to mix up the script. or the script will skip you... probably you need to go back and read what should be included in the report because that particular report is gobble-dee-gook in terms of being inconsistent with your past reports.. think 1) total days.. think 2) total pushups... and maybe then you might get it in the ballpark of being correct like a true pusher trying to actually catch fish.   

---

Here's my latest:
100k,JayJuanGee,79,14775,2024-04-23

For sure, I would like to point out that historically bitcoin has had compounding effects over each cycle and also even more compounding effects over several cycles, yet I would like to also assert that compounding effects are not guaranteed merely because a person stays invested in bitcoin for more than one whole cycle. 

There is always a risk that bitcoin might not go up in value and even that it could go down or go to zero, so even though many of us appreciate that bitcoin seems to continue to have one of the best investment theses, even perhaps the best, it still is not guaranteed to go up, and I think part of the reason regarding having an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer is to make sure that you are considering bitcoin as a long term investment rather than merely trying to trade waves, and sure everyone is free to do what they like in terms of their approach to an investment, even though there are probably plenty of us who would consider that you are not investing in bitcoin if you cannot at least come to it with a minimum of a 4-year investment time line... and yeah, maybe when I came into bitcoin in late 2013, it might have had been more difficult to actually commit to at least a 4-year investment timeline since bitcoin was ONLY less than 5 years old at that time in terms of how long it had been running, and maybe only 3.5 years or even less in terms of having (and growing) some kind of a market price.

So various bear case scenarios should also be included in terms of any thoughts to get into bitcoin and to build a bitcoin stash, and are non-bullish cases are not eliminated merely because the timeline is longer... so be careful both in terms of suggesting that compounding value is guaranteed and/or that negative scenarios (or less bullish scenarios) are no longer applicable, merely because you choose a longer investment timeline, whether that is 4-10 years or even longer than that.

I am kind of seeing a similar thing while at the same time starting to feel some kind of a tinge of an attack on the bitcoin network and transactability of regular folks, but I still am tentatively considering that they are not going to be able to keep it up, becuase there would have to be buyers on the other end, so sure maybe for a while the hype can keep going, and maybe even several months, but is it sustainable in any kind of way that it is really going to break transactability?  or maybe this is just the beginning of variations of similar kinds of ways to remove lower paying transactions for these ones who are apparently willing to spend a lot of money on variations of their crap.. and then maybe it gives other actors (such as governments and financial institutions - even miners) more information about ways that they can drive bitcoin fees up and to discourage normies from getting involved in bitcoin, including that normies could become frustrated by not being able to engage in on chain transactions and normies are then tending to use third party providers and also realizing that they are not really directly using bitcoin, but they may well be able to get bitcoin price exposure.. ..

but then price dynamics that are partly motivated by a bunch of scams on top of bitcoin and contributing to confusion in terms of whether bitcoin is any different than any other shitcoin, which we should still realize that bitcoin is still different from various other shitcoins, just that the fees cost a lot to transact (rght now) and maybe we have to make sure that we are transacting in the thousands of dollars in order to justify the fees that we are paying.. although even if we might have to send $1k to $2k to some kind of a lightning network wallet, then maybe we would thereafter be able to have cheaper transactions on that wallet that we had initiated with $1k to $2k worth of bitcoin.


Is it worth it to try to stop it rather than just letting it run its course.  I am having trouble considering that it breaks bitcoin, even though it is quite inconvenient, and it stacks a lot of cards in favor of rich people and against poor people and even normies wanting to get into bitcoin. .but there frequently is misinformation (information asymmetry) that normies newbies to bitcoin have to sort through in order to still recognize/appreciate bitcoin as a powerful investment that they should get rather than not getting, even though transaction fees happen to currently be high, and "we" seem to be going through a period of excitement in regards to how to propagate various scams on the bitcoin main chain.


Sure.. I am kind of thinking that too.. and so you are implying that rich people, governments, financial institutions, anti-bitcoin folks will just keep throwing their money at bitcoin to clog it up.. and suggesting that they have enough money to actually accomplish their mission..

I understand the idea, and I have similar fears, but I think that we cannot necessarily presume such a thing without possibly letting it play out for some additional time, so in that sense, I cannot see what kind of a "rush" change would be good enough to NOT damage more than it solves, and I am kind of thinking that these high fees might be inspiring various kinds of developments that might be able to inspire some kinds of solutions that had not previously been considered.. How long these solutions take?  Who knows, but there are variations of them that already exist, even though they seem to have more centralization characteristics. 

Many of us who hold bitcoin privately are likely made aware of these matters, and there may well be some folks who hold bitcoin privately who have not yet become aware of these current high fee issues, and surely some of them could become inspired to sell their coins because of such matters or maybe fail/refuse to buy more bitcoin because of such matters, and yeah, they will become low coiners or no coiners, and maybe they will regret their decision later.. so yeah, we each make decisions about our own bitcoin holdings if we believe some of our use cases are being interfered with. and/or that we might have transaction sizes (UTXOs) that have become uneconomical to spend.. or marginally economical to spend, and some folks might panic based on these kinds of issues and misread them as more sustainable than they actually are.. and I am not going to proclaim that I know the solution, but I am not much of a fan of emergency measures based on even what seems to be currently going on.

Another thread closed prior to my ability to respond.. .So I will put my response here, since I cannot help myself, sometimes.


Personally, I do not take the position that it is always a bad idea to trade, and surely the idea of trading can sometimes be a bit ambiguous in regards to the objectives.

Frequently, I do suggest that it is way better to build up your BTC holdings prior to even considering whether to sell any of them, and so any time that you are selling your bitcoin, you are either spending and replacing, or you are selling such a small amount that you are not necessarily expecting to be able to buy back, so part of the dilemma becomes when your stash has reached such a size that you are able to start to sell on the way up without necessarily expecting to be able to buy back on the way down, yet at the same time, perhaps considering that if the price does go down, then you will use the proceeds from the sale to buy back.

I consider those kinds of practices to potentially be considered a way of engaging in insurance plays rather than expecting the BTC price to go down.

In other words, there could be a point in your bitcoin journey that you have already considered that you have enough, or you have more than enough, and so at that point, you can project out various BTC prices and even consider yourself able to sell some of you bitcoin as the price goes up.. perhaps even something like around up to 10% for every 100% the BTC price goes up, which may well translate into selling up to 1% every 10% that it goes up.  Yet you would be engaging in those sales and not necessarily expecting the BTC price to go back down so it is a kind of raking of profits  (I talk about raking ideas in this post and other parts of the same thread), but no expectation that the BTC price goes back down, yet at the same time you have to have had reached a certain level of over accumulation in order to engage in such practices... and yeah those practices of raking can be compared with trading, but I don't consider them to be trading because they are not engaged in any attempts to predict price, but just sells as the price goes up and buys as the price goes down with little to no variation in the plan based on expectations about what the BTC price will do.. so the price is coming to you rather than trying to figure out where it might go.

I guess that some of the points that bother me about many of the traders is the employment of sales of BTC in order to buy back lower, which I find problematic in regards to ending up in positions of selling too much too soon.

Another thing that bothers me quite a bit is the idea of ongoingly raking off profits in order to live off of those profits, so the profits are measured in dollars, and those kinds of practices tend to really screw up abilities to either compound value (profits in bitcoin) and likely results in quite mediocre performance as compared to just leaving those profits in bitcoin and figuring out other ways to support yourself.. which largely means that there is not enough allowance upon the BTC holdings to continue to grow since in those kinds of circumstances it would be being used as a source of income .. rather than a long term investment to allow to grow.. .which would end up giving the greater value.. and yeah, of course, no guarantees, but at the same time bitcoin has been and likely will continue to but amongst the best, if not the best, place to hold your value, even though there can be a lot of uncertainties in the relatively short term periods, including some of the high prices and difficulties in transacting in recent times.


Of course that is largely the correct conclusion, and I may well be mostly just quibbling with your use of the term "never" when you were talking about trading.. .. yet of course, I am largely sympathetic to the idea of never trading for the more beginner folks who may well need up to a whole cycle to really start to build a decent stash, unless they are able to front-load their investment.. For most normies, it can tend to take more than 10 years before they have more than 1-2 years worth of income/expenses invested into anything whether bitcoin or anything else, so getting to a position of having enough to start to play around with skimming off the top or having enough might mean at least having some kind of minimum level of a few years worth of income already accumulated into their investment portfolio, whether bitcoin or otherwise.


For sure, bitcoin remains very powerful in the direction or price appreciation, and there is no real evidence to suggest that it is not going to remain that way... and so one of the dilemmas that newer investors tend to have is to figure out how to play their first whole cycle, since there can be some kinds of anticipations of the BTC price getting overheated, and from my perspective, it is likely going to be better just to DCA through the first 4 years of investing into bitcoin, even though there could be some ways to attempt to tailor those kinds of matters, but if someone is a common man, then part of the presumption would be that he does not necessarily have a lot of spare money that he can invest at any one time.. like lump sums and/or front loading, even though surely we cannot necessarily paint all new investors (and/or common men) with the same broad brush.. but the idea of the common man who is a newbie to bitcoin would either be that he is starting out with investing and building his investment portfolio with bitcoin, or that he had been investing for a while with other kinds of traditional investing and he just recently heard about bitcoin or decided to add bitcoin to his investment.

You may or may be right that it could take time for the bitcoin price to go up; however, you have to consider the possibility that it might not end up taking as much time as you are speculating that it might take, and some of the dips that you are expecting to be likely to take place might not end up happening when you expect them to happen.

There are a lot of no coiners and low coiners who were waiting for lower BTC prices at $27k, and they are still waiting for a "proper" dip, and they become disgruntled.  The same is going to happen at today's prices with guys who fail/refuse to stack enough sats because they are too  busy thinking about dips that might happen or that they still have a lot of time to stack sats in these prices, which may or may not be true.

And, you need to shake your idea of lumping bitcoin in as just one other "crypto currencies".. since you are likely failing and refusing to understand bitcoin since you want to classify it as just the best of the crypto currencies.. which technically is not incorrect, but it is still a bad way of thinking about the bitcoin matter.

I understand that recently, there has been so much crap on bitcoin, especially referring to runes and ordinals, that makes bitcoin seem like just another shitcoin, yet there still remain strong foundational elements in bitcoin that still distinguish it from the various shitcoins that are out there.


Of course if you have an average price per BTC that is $16k to $40k you are going to have more options than someone with a higher average cost per BTC, yet you still should be attempting to consider your situation in terms of the total size of your BTC stack and if you should keep stacking, rather than how much you are in profits, and sure, if someone has an income of $40k per year, and he has around 10 bitcoins, he might think differently from someone who has 1-2 bitcoin. 

And there are people of similar levels of income with even fewer income who are not even adequately considering how many BTC that they might need.  Yeah we cannot completely know how many we need, except for maybe valuing our stash using the 200-WMA rather than spot price, especially if we are trying to project into the future and considering projecting that the BTC price is likely continuing to go up, whether referring to the 200-WMA or the spot price.

You are correct about the "Casey missed the ride" being 5 syllables, since missed is considered ONLY 1 syllable.. I just looked it up...

Yeah, but where is your report so that your information can be included in the table?


In order to not screw up Dirty Keyboard's system, I am afraid to correct you with the proper format, yet from your description (and as Mayor of agoba mentioned) your "50" should have had been a "16"... 16 days of 50 pushups, and not 50 days of 16 pushups.

HODL seems to mostly apply to when you have run out of money to buy more.  If the BTC price is dipping or just staying flat, then it seems that there should be some additional emphasis upon continuing to buy.. just continue to buy until you have enough or more than enough.. and ONLY you will know when you reached such a point in terms of your own individual factors.. and if you are thinking in terms of long term, then that should help to guide you regarding whether you have "enough" or more than enough.

Getting to fuck you status need not be the ONLY measure, and there are other ways to measure in terms of likely your having gotten to a spot that you have multiples of years of income into BTC, then you are on the right path of getting to fuck you status, even though there can be some controversy regarding how many years you need.. under traditional systems, you would need around 25-ish years of income, yet I am currently thinking that in the ballpark of 12 years of income in bitcoin (using the 200-WMA as your value measurement), may well be enough to reach entry-level fuck you status.   Guys who have been in bitcoin for a while have to make these measures for themselves, and hope that they are able to calculate how much is enough and/or the extent to which there can start to be some moves away from strict BTC accumulation.. .. even though surely in the first several years in bitcoin strict BTC accumulation (such as in a practice of aggressive DCA) likely would be the route forward for an overwhelming number of normies and even if their circumstances may well vary, DCA should still fit into any such newbie approach.. whether rich or poor... even though rich have other options that may or may not be as good as DCA... but that's another story.


You are talking about trading not investing, and deviating from the topic of this thread which surely should be focused on building your holdings, and you don't build your holdings by selling... .. yeah, sure there might be scenarios in which you have over-accumulated, yet that also is not the topic of this thread..

Not only is taking profits the language of a trader, there is a bit of a presumption that it is good to go from bitcoin to dollars and if dollars is the profits that we need to be in..   

I am not going to deny that it is NOT healthy to be 100% bitcoin, so sometimes we have to be careful in regards to making sure that we hold enough dollars for our expenses and so that we never run out of dollars for our expenses and perhaps to be able have those dollars to be able to buy more bitcoin from time to time, but most folks are likely under-allocated to bitcoin and in this thread, we are talking about ways to build up your bitcoin allocation.


yeah, never sell all of your bitcoin, but it is even more ridiculous to be talking about these here current prices as if they might be tops..


Yeah, sure BTC prices might touch $100k in the next 3 months. .and maybe that shows that it might be better to be buying now, if you are able to buy now, rather than having to buy when the BTC prices are in the $100k territories.


You still have to attempt to budget, since there is no guarantee that the BTC price is going to end up coming back.

Sure, the odds might be low that the BTC price might not ever recover, but the odds are not zero, so you have to temper your own investment into bitcoin and to balance your cashflow, and if you were already convinced about bitcoin, you might not have any extra money when the BTC price ended up dipping below the 200-WMA because you had already been investing aggressive and/or overly aggressive prior to the BTC price even dropping below the 200-WMA, so part of the reason that it is difficult to know is partly based on your own situation, and if you had been accumulating all along then why would you have extra dollars merely because the BTC price happens to be down. 

Sure, you could have some extra dollars coming in during times like that, so you can use much if not most of those extra dollars to buy BTC, yet many times when the BTC prices are very low, there might also be other things going on in which you don't have a lot of extra cash, and whether or not you earn extra cash or there might be some places in which you could draw some extra cash may or may not be possible or you might not be willing to do it.  It frequently can be difficult to get into a position in which you obviously have a lot of cash available during those kinds of times, even if you may well recognize them as great opportunities to buy, each of us also have our limits in terms of how much cash we are able to conjur up.


You should be able to have some confidence, but it still remains up to you regarding how much conviction that you have and no one is going to save you if you end up estimating wrong in terms of how you choose to balance your own cashflows.  You are also going to be the one who is going to have to suffer if you make the wrong balancing choices.


Also imagine that you are talking like a trader who tries to time the bottoms and the tops, and yeah a guy might be investing $100 per week, and then during June 2022 to October 2023, he might increase his weekly buys to $200 per week... so yeah, he will be more profitable, but it still takes a long time to build wealth.

There might have been some folks who just heard about bitcoin during that time, yet I doubt that they were backing up the truck and buying bitcoin, many of those newbies were waiting for the BTC price to go to $12k rather than buying in the $16k to $20k prices, or alternatively they waited until the BTC price went higher.. Even though some folks try to talk about how they are killing it, yet normal people do not tend to have abilities to invest like that, and even a newbie to bitcoin, might decide to divide his investment amount into three parts of DCA, lump sum and buying on dips.. so he may or may not go all in with the amount that he decides that he has available, and there is nothing wrong with that, especially if we are thinking and investing like an investor rather than like a trader... and if we are investing 4-10 years or longer, then it may not make a lot of difference if we have several buys that are spread out between $16k and $30k, which can be part of the challenge for anyone establishing their initial stake in an investment like BTC.

Even if you look at Saylor, he has been buying BTC for nearly 4 years, and sure maybe he is starting to feel like he has a decent stake in bitcoin, although he cannot help himself in terms of his using financial instruments to leverage his bitcoin investment... and even normal people could take several years to establish their BTC position, even if they might not be as aggressive as Saylor, but they still could be somewhat aggressive in getting a stake into BTC, but still take a decent amount of time to establish their stake.. 1-2 years or even more might not be unusual.. Of course, I could give some examples, but we have already gone through several different kinds of examples where a guy might take time to establish his position and use lump sum, DCA and buying on dips to accomplish such BTC position establishing practices.


ETFs are not the same thing as ICOs. 

You are getting distracted into shitcoins. 

Fuck shitcoins.

Or maybe you were referring to my comment about runes and the BTC blockchain getting filled?

With the runes thing, there may be some similarities to ICOs, and surely there could be some of the same folks working bitcoin to try to make some money and/or otherwise creating hype, but there are differences as well... so yeah, similarities and differences, and I would be careful to attempt to say that "it is just like ICOs" because then you likely are just getting some kind of a superficial interpretation regarding what is happening.


Oh gawd.. your analysis sucks.

We have the runes thing on bitcoin that are surely like adding shitcoins to bitcoin, and it may or may not last, but it is interfering with abilities of normal people to transact on bitcoin.

and we also have the BTC spot ETFs that are creating additional demand for BTC, and those are opening up channels to most likely longer term investors, but those investors do not hold their BTC, instead the ETF providers hold the BTC...

But both is going on at the same time and they have some affects that differ from each other in terms of having some ideas why folks are involved in them, but there is also some convenience in terms of causing transaction fees to go up, which might cause more folks to want to buy ETFs or to use third party services rather than for individuals to directly hold their own BTC (UTXOs).


There are some folks, institutions and/or governments who would have never been ready, wiling and/or able to invest into bitcoin directly, so the ETF provides an onramp to bitcoin that had not previously been available to certain kinds of investors to get exposure to bitcoin.


Sure, direct bitcoin ownership is more powerful and better than owning ETFs because you do not own your own UTXOs, and in many ways ETFs seem to have perverting effects on the power of BTC and BTC's incentives and also including what makes bitcoin valuable is the ability to own it directly.  So yeah there are some tensions in regards to the existence of the ETFs, but there is no way of really stopping ETFs from happening and for people to use them, whether they end up being a kind of attack on bitcoin might be another story, yet at the same time, they are pumping bitcoin and they are even telling us that they have plans to pump bitcoin more and more and  more, so they would prefer NOT to have to tell us about their pumping of bitcoin, but in several senses, those companies have disclosure requirements.. so there is good and bad and hopefully, people are still building on bitcoin's being able to be used and held directly since those investment vehicles are not really using bitcoin in a lot of the self-sovereignty ways that bitcoin remains powerful.


Exactly.. keep an emergency fund that hopefully you will never have to ever touch (except for an actual emergency), and then you have a float and reserve funds that would be available to you and what you would draw from prior to having to touch your emergency funds... so if you have various shortages in cash then you would exhaust your reserve funds and float prior to touching your emergency funds, and if you get to a point in which you are exhausting your reserve funds and float, then you better already be trying to take measures so that you don't have to dip into your emergency funds... which surely should be pretty extreme circumstances before you ever have to touch them, since you should not want to be dipping into your emergency funds, and then an actual real emergency comes, and you have already been fucking around with dipping into your emergency fund... and then you have nothing left to draw from and so the next thing comes dipping into your BTC at a time that was likely not of your own choosing.

I'm gonna beat up upon you some more, but you seem to deserve it.  To "for sure" believe that BTC prices would be at or near $100k is a bit ridiculous, and it seem to be the opposite in regards to whatever any newbie should be wanting, especially if they were an investor rather than a trader or a gambler wanting a quick buck and to try to play some kind of a bitcoin wave.

You can be what you want, but it seems the better path is to consider a long term horizon, especially anyone in bitcoin less than 4 years, and look at your forum registration date (nearly a year and a half into bitcoin).  If you had been aggressive from the start you would be in a pretty good position, and surely it is not easy to be so spoiled in terms of the BTC price going up the whole time that you had been registered on the forum.

And, no I am not just talking to you, but I am talking to all of the guys/gals who got into bitcoin in the last year and a half.. you have been spoiled by bitcoin's price going nearly exclusively up...and yeah, maybe quite a few of you made the mistake by being overly whimpy in the way you started to invest into bitcoin, and I cannot really blame you since psychologically, bitcoin has been in pretty low historical places, especially in reference to the 200-WMA.

Maybe I have a hard time relating?

Probably the best thing to do would be to continue buying, yet perhaps there are a lot of relative newbies who are sitting on their hands and waiting for a payoff to the upside, rather than what probably would be the best the to keep buying and not be overly focused on short term prices.. and yeah maybe if BTC prices get to $200k or more this year, or maybe $400k or more next year, then perhaps at that time, you might have to reconsider if you are going to buy or if the price might be overheating..

not that I am suggesting to sell, but I realize that there can be a bit of a dilemma to continue to be buying bitcoin during your first whole cycle, which probably is the solution in terms of getting to a point that you are not overly obsessed about relatively small short term price moves, especially given the likely size of your BTC stash (unless you had been able to greatly front-load your BTC investment in the last year and a half.. yet I am not even sure if that is enough.. remember Micheal Saylor seemed to have had front loaded his investment in mid-to-late 2020, and he seems like he can never get enough - but then maybe he is not a typical example in terms of his being a bit of a psycho.. .. yet I think that the point still stands that it is not unreasonable for any normie to largely be focusing on stacking sats for their first whole cycle and maybe even longer than that, depending on their financial situation..


You seem to be talking about traders, not investors.  Investors do not need any kind of short term reward like that.  Think about Tim Draper who bought around 30k bitcoin for around $600 each in mid-2014.. He looked like a fool for more than 2 years, and it seems that he mostly still continues to hold those coins rather than trading them. Sure, he might move some value around from time to time, but investors will be playing for terms that go quite a bit beyond just one cycle.. so you seem to be misusing the term "investor"  and thinking about yourself wanting to sell some (or maybe all your BTC) and hopefully, for your own good, you don't end up selling too many too soon. .that happens to a lot of newbies who act out of emotion and think that they are going to outsmart BTC price moves.. and think they got it figured out (how to play the wave.. blah blah blah).


speak for yourself.


If you are just coming into bitcoin now, and you want to prepare for UP, then you have no choice except to buy.. the same will be true at $70k, $80k, $100k and even at higher BTC prices.

You have more freedom the longer that you have been into bitcoin and perhaps the more coins that you were able to get earlier.

One of the problems that applies to a lot of people is that they are not able to front load their investment, so even if they have been in bitcoin for a year or two or even longer, even if they are trying to be aggressive with their bitcoin investment, they may well were not able to accumulate a lot of bitcoin during the time that they have been in, so they likely are going to just need to continue to buy bitcoin regularly and even if the BTC price keeps going up.. because there is really no knowing if the BTC price will come down or not.. so then one of the questions is regarding if you have enough BTC, and if you don't have enough BTC then the most logical desires would be for the BTC price not to go up too quickly and to continue to buy, since I doubt that selling is a solution for those who do not have enough BTC..

and how long will it take to have enough.. ?  10-15 years or longer?  How long it takes partly depends on how much disposable income a person has, how aggressive they are able to be without over doing it and perhaps also whether they have other assets in which they are able to front load their BTC investment rather than merely relying on disposable income amounts as that comes in... which sometimes can take a while to really build with those kinds of levels - maybe 5% to 25% of his income. but even that would be difficult, and sometimes people struggle to dedicate in the ballpark of 10% of their income towards investing/savings (and here talking about putting such amounts into bitcoin).


Well said.. This also would have had been a good response to SexyLizzy.  In sum. .it takes a long-ass time to build up a bitcoin holdings, even if you have been being fairly aggressive in your bitcoin accummulation for several years.

If you are thinking about investing, then you should be thinking in terms of a longer timeline, such as 4-10 years or longer, and then you should be ONLY investing from your discretionary income, so it is from money that you do not need for those 4-10 years or longer. 

If you are trying to play the waves, you are not investing, you are trading and/or gambling.

If you invest money from what you need for expenses,  you are gambling and not investing.

So yeah, if you overinvest, then you likely will need the money before the timeline that should be assigned, and those are all examples of mistakes... including attempting to value their assets from spot prices and presuming that the spot price will always stay the same and./or go up rather than valuing their holdings from bottom prices, such as using the 200 WMA to figure out the value of your BTC holdings.

You can get into bitcoin in a variety of ways, which include that you can heavily attempt to front load your investment, which could lead you to be in a different position from the person who comes into bitcoin more gradually and using discretionary income, and there is nothing wrong with front-loading your investment or even engaging in lump sum investing in the beginning, but you also have to be using money that you do not need, and also potentially be prepared for the BTC price to move against you if you were to have had to invested a lot at one time, then if the BTC price goes down rather than up, you should hopefully be in a position to continue to buy, and so yeah, stacking up your stash may well take a couple of cycles before you might start to be in a position to start to shave some of it off, and so in that case, you have to make sure that you are able to live during that time that you are either building your bitcoin holdings and/or your bitcoin holdings might well be growing during that time too. ..

In essence the idea is to build up your stash first before starting to sell any of it, and then once you start to sell some of it later down the road, sell in such small quantities that you don't necessarily expect to be able to buy back at lower prices whatever you had started to sell.


Not only holding is important, but continuous and persistent buying is important to reinforce conviction in the investment, and also to build up the BTC stash to a meaningful amount. 

And, sure I am not saying that everyone has to be aggressive in his bitcoin approach, but there are advantages to figuring out some reasonable amount that is extra money that a newbie can invest, whether it is $100 per week or $10 per week or some other reasonable amount that fits within his budget of extra money that he is not going to miss because he has his expenses figured out.. and he is sufficiently comfortable in terms of ongoingly putting that amount into bitcoin.


You are speaking out of both sides of your mouth since you are already suggesting to hold for a long time, but then you are talking about a fantasy of trading and trying to figure out the waves in BTC prices, and presuming that trading is better than just buying BTC and not trying to figure out when to sell, except maybe figuring out when to sell after having had been in bitcoin for at least a couple of cycles.. and maybe by the time that a person has been into bitcoin for a couple of cycles, then they can can start to think about possible selling strategies without necessarily selling large amounts.. so that would be to prioritize long term, investing rather than trading and not trying the figure out the shorter term waves, especially in the first cycle (the first 4 years of investing into bitcoin).. If you are thinking about investing and/or long term in regards to bitcoin in less than 4-year periods, then you are not thining about either investing nor long term.. at least when it comes to bitcoin..  You are likely mixing up ideas of trading and gambling and presuming that to be the same (or similar) to investing, which it is not.


That is a bad idea.  You are talking about trading bitcoin and trying to gain more dollars from it, which is likely going to be very mediocre for anyone buying bitcoin and selling merely because they are in profits.

If you think about from 2015 to now there have been right around 8 doublings of the BTC price from $250 to $64k, and so that might not sound like very much, but each doubling allows for a compounding of value, so by the time you get to 8 doublings you end up having 256x increase in value (you can see my post on the power of compounding topic), and there is no way that you can get those kinds of returns by fucking around scalping off small dollar profits at various points and then getting in and out of bitcoin and maybe finding yourself to be out when you should have had been in.

A lot of guys proclaim that they are living off of trading, but with something like bitcoin, it is likely better to have another income source, because there is value in terms of staying invested rather than getting in and out and scalping off profits to live off of them is going to cause you to never get ahead, even if you are able to live off of your profits, you are going to end up missing out on the power of compounding that comes from any good (or great) investment, such as bitcoin.


You say a lot of the correct things jrrsparkles - however, there likely is no need to get all worked up about "perfect timing."  The best thing to do for normies is to get in and to stay persistent investing in bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer and as they are investing, they may study bitcoin to become more informed about how they might use it to their advantage in terms of the likely additional options that it will give them from investing 4-10 years or longer... so the most important things is not worrying about timing, but instead get started and to figure out their own finances in terms of making sure that they are investing from their discretionary income, which means it is income that is beyond what they need to cover all their expenses.  Probably, they should also consider their 9 factors, too.. but they do not have to have all of their 9 factors in order prior to investing into bitcoin, yet they can work on figuring ut their 9 factors as they continue to invest into bitcoin. . maybe start out small, and then work themselves into investing more aggressively into it, if they have gotten a good grasp on their 9 factors..