It would definitely be invalid yes, but right now it looks very unlikely. The big resistance that Bitcoin failed to break was 10.5k. Now after this failure, it is only obvious that the market will start capitulating. With an event like the halvening, it was a perfect opportunity for the whales to wait for the price to get close to this resistance and sell. Whales are wrecking the noobs at the moment. It often happens like that. IMO 2020 is a very bearish year (but still a good one for people who bought Bitcoin in January and sold in February, but not a good year for those who bought into the halvening.
2021 is still far away but if we see a double bottom at $3100 then a new cycle begins, then bulls can have hope. But right now we are too busy with 2020 to think about 2021 and as said previously, Bitcoin will be cheaper by the end of the year, no point in buying now.

My opinion of course and not financial advice 

In my analysis, that would be a bounce back, or we could say a correction of the sharp downtrend. Nothing unusual.

This bounce back would of course not go against the overall trajectory of our Bitcoin price heading to 5.5k area, then possibly to 3.1k.

Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues   unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?



 

Just a few posts above there is your proof, post #26.



Time of this post: BTC trading @ $9067.


Today, we saw a Bitcoin @ $9002, from this point, my use of the Elliott Wave theory indicates a possible bounce back to $9442 (using Fibonacci).

Of course this doesn't go against my middle term bearish target. I probably won't open a quick long just for this (too tricky) but curious to see if this plays out. Then from $9442 area we should finally consolidate below $9000 to continue the downtrend, the drop in end of May/beginning of June should be much sharper than what we witnessed during the last few days.

$7800 should be reached in a few weeks.

End of a long cycle is coming, the price will skyrocket or plummet in June. Chances are looking better for a big bearish breakdown below that long support line that kept us alive since 2013.

Sorry you are right, forgot to mention it. Stop Loss @ 10.8 for this trade but I could already move it around 10.2k.

Also forgot to mention in the first post I am obviously using Fibonacci to find my personal targets (for beginners: https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/Fibonacci-sequence ).

Hi folks,

Been posting for a while now. I am usually a swing trader, never do daily trading (too tricky). My typical timeframe for a trade is 1 week to 2/3 months.

I posted the following thread recently: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5250255.msg54477235#msg54477235
As you can read, I have a target at 5.5k for Bitcoin, with an estimate date of July-August.


I will update this thread whenever I can and will post charts when I have more time.


The analysis behind my short to 5.5k is mainly backed by Elliott Waves theory (see link posted above). I am confident we see 5.5k soon, however in between I usually secure some profits, and my first securing profit price will be 7.9k because I see a possible bounce back from there.





To sum up:
Target by August: 5.5k
Secure profit at 7.9k, and will try to short again if bounce back at 8.3k.


This thread is not financial advice, do your own research   best of luck everybody!  

I disagree with this analysis.

There is a gap at 9.7k, it means it's possible we go back to 9.7k because of this gap, but it won't reverse the bearish trend. What would likely reverse the downtrend is breaking above 10.5k.

Anyway, in my opinion going back to 9.7k is unlikely at this stage, but possible. Most likely scenario is to see 9.4k again and then Bitcoin price goes below 9k again, this time with no coming back (in 2020). This is the most likely move. Bulls are clearly missing firepower at the moment and as soon as we visit 7k again, many who bought into the halvening (no pun intended) will capitulate.

Dear newbies,

You were told you need to work hard to rank up? You were told you need to write constructive essays about the origin of the blockchain technology? You were told you will need to post the most convincing technical analysis (as long as they are bullish)?

Well, it's time to think outside the box!

Or better: it's time to stop overthinking  Sometimes, a simple approach is much more effective.

This is how you get merits: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54481322#msg54481322



You are welcome.

Happy?

Why do you feel so suspicious?  


Not always bearish my friend.

My bearish predictions get noticed more than my bullish predictions. Human nature and nature of this forum.

In December 2019 I posted so many times about a long @6.5k to sell @9k. In March I also recommended to buy @4k to sell @6.5k, saying it was a conservative target. Now with my next move, I am clearly more aggressive but also more confident  

You are right about one thing though, I am usually bullish only in the short term and bearish in the middle term, but I shouldn't be blamed for what the charts say, should I? 2020 is a bearish year overall, not my fault. 2021 who knows?



In my opinion quite the opposite, Bitcoin is like 95% TA and 5% fundamental, so to speak. Much easier to trade Bitcoin than trade any stock. My opinion.

The more I read this analysis, the more I believe it will eventually play out. Of course not a done deal yet, a lot of things can happen, but the resistances have been stronger than the supports for quite a long time now. What will happen when those buying into the halvening fairytale will eventually lose patience and sell?
This event could explain why the last wave doesn't look very harmonic compared to the previous ones, but the scenario still looks very possible to me.

A first target I have is 6.8k, then a bounce back, then 5.5k... then 3.5k. At this point, 5.5k looks quite safe.

Short comment regarding the 50 bitcoin mined in 2009 and sold a few days ago: disappointed bulls will always try to find a logic behind every dump.
Because most Youtube channels related to cryptocurrencies (mostly American) are very bullish, they tend to get very emotional and need to find a reason behind every red candle.
50 Bitcoin is not much at all, and most importantly it is peanuts for the guy who sold since he mined thousands of coins back in the day. The guy is totally free to sell 50 coins when he still has thousands in his wallet, what difference does it make?


What I find absurd is to draw an analysis based on fundamentals while there is no reason that can explain a price dropping from 20k in December 2017 to 3k in January 2019. It sounds weird to say that but never I will post an analysis based on any fundamental.


Bitcoin was not overvalued in December 2017, it was only supply and demand. It was worth 20k because of supply and demand, that's all. The halvening was irrelevant. Bitcoin's project is unbelievable, it is revolutionary, then why doesn't Bitcoin price keep rising? I mean Bitcoin is better now than it was in 2017 (faster transactions) the fundamentals are incredibly good. But the price keeps doing down, think about it. Fundamentals do not explain Bitcoin price. It is all about supply and demand. You are free to think otherwise, but personally I give zero fuck to halvenings or stuff like that.

 

Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k, worst news (for bulls) is we didn't even get close and this time got rejected at 10.1k which creates another lower high compared to February 2020.

Now the downtrend is still intact, despite the recent attempt to break a big resistance (descending triangle). We can safely say the bulls are now either selling or placed in the recovery position, praying it is just a bad dream...





Therefore 5.5k looks obvious, with a safe estimate date to be achieved around July-August this year.

5.5k is a quite conservative target I believe. The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k (lower low compared to March 2020). And because it needs to be done, Stop Loss set @ 10.8k  


At the time of this topic, Bitcoin is trading around 8.95k, it is very possible we see a bounce back to 9.4k, it shouldn't bounce higher than that, in any case a bounce shorter than 9.8k will confirm the downtrend.


Best of luck everyone  

An event that occurred this year for the third time in bitcoin history   but now that this thread was moved to Off Topic, it becomes pointless. It perfectly fitted in Speculation.  

All this to say, in my opinion bitcoin saw his last big run for 2020 and right now it doesn't have enough firepower to overcome 10.5k, hence the third coin should land on tail?  

If you flip a coin, and it lands on heads. Then you flip it again, and it's heads again.

Do you say: you don't need to flip it a third time, for sure it's heads?

bump


If we look at the the monthly candles since the beginning of Bitcoin, we can see the resistance is still there, it was not broken.

Draw a line from the all time high in December 2017, passing through June 2019, February 2020 and May 2020, we have not inverted the trend yet.

When you draw the line, it is better to ignore the wig of the candles, more relevant to consider only the body of the candles.





Trend still bearish to me.

I can sense 7k is coming soon. And probably below that later.

Hello,

I heard about a partnership with Binance, here are my questions:

1- can we transfer money from Advcash (fiat, for example EUR), to Binance? If yes, any fee?
2- can we transfer money from Binance (again in fat) to Advcash wallet? 0% fee?

Thanks for your reply 

I never said there was a dragonfly doji in June 2019, it was a gravestone doji: see here

The post you just quoted says exactly that  
Anyway both dragonfly and gravestone usually turns out to be good signals for profitable trading, but the last dragonfly doji I see needs to be confirmed by the next candle, I wouldn't recommend to buy right now.

Time frame: 1 month
Time frame: 2 months

Did anyone see it?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dragonfly-doji.asp

One of the most noticeable gravestone doji was spotted in June 2019 which indicated imminent downtrend, that turned out to be very accurate. Now regarding this dragonfly doji the wisest traders will wait for a confirmation, would be cool if May could close out above 9.2k.

Important to note that Bitcoin will still be bearish if we can't break above 10.5k.




Best of luck!

We traders care about the variations and the volatility. Plain and simple.

That's how we make money.

No emotion. I am not emotionally attached to Bitcoin in any way.

Emotion is a money killer (and money is an emotion killer   )

Now, some interesting times ahead, May-June will turn out to be crucial. There is an obvious dragonfly doji candle (2 months). This is usually the sign of a trend reversal.

video: https://bit.ly/3aQCSMJ

It depends how price reacts if it gets close again to the 10.5k resistance. Bitcoin price got rejected twice at this crucial price. If Bitcoin breaks above, we will probably see a new ATH.

Now if we are rejected again at 10.5k, we will see 3k soon or even below that. The dragonfly doji is a good sign but we need a confirmation at the resistance mentioned above.

2020 will be epic one way or another! plenty of money to make either way 




Bitcoin could be worth $100,000 or $100 in five years from now, and I give zero fuck.