Here's my prediction. At some point in the coming days/weeks we'll "rally" back to around $10. This will seem very positive and will be accompanied by predictions of further upwards movement. The price will then begin to lag into the 9s where it will stabilize for several days. We'll then see some drops that test 9, followed by stabilization right around 9. Sentiment will then begin to trend toward negativity again, and not long after that the price will turn sharply down again and reach new lows for the past couple months. To get an idea of what will happen after that, just re-read this paragraph but replace all the numbers with lower numbers. Repeat.
It sounds reasonable, typical behaviour of a bear market; we need new investors otherwise this bear market will never end, eventually it will slow down (repeating the pattern you described) and it will gradually approach 3-4$. At that point even long term investors and early adopters will be very worried and if nothing happen they will probably lose interest pushing the prices under 4$, down to 1$ or so. |
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I moved to solidcoin yesterday to give it a try; at the moment it's 3 times more profitable then bitcoin (155$ per month against 58$ with bitcoin, using a 5870 overclocked) and i think is better then bitcoin, i dont worry for the fixed transaction fee, it might be changed in the future. What concern me of bitcoin is that it is vulnerable to a drop off in mining power, who is holding bitcoins could barely transfer them or do anything with them, if too many miners drop off (for instance to mine SolidCoins) the entire network could collapse leaving people with no way to get their Bitcoins out or do anything with them.
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In order to keep my thoughts in one place, I have created a blog for Bitcoin trading and speculation: http://bitcoin-trader.blogspot.com/Please swing by for a visit when you get a chance! Sure, I'll |
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I disagree completely that difficulty causes price changes.
It's the other way around.
If the price goes up, more people mine, and then the difficulty goes up.
If the price goes down, less people mine, and the difficulty does down.
Price affects difficulty. Difficulty does not affect price.
Yes, i found a lag of 15 days on average beetween price and diff., if price goes up then miners need 15 days to buy new hardware, setup the rig and start mining with the final effect of rising the difficulty. |
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Any thoughts on the 5-6 dollars price target?
I agree with you, i derived a 6.50$ target with a quantitative approach. It is a possible target for this weekly down swing started at 32$ 2 months ago. |
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Yea, I saw this thread, but unfortunately the links to the bitcoinchart.com trade.csv file only provide about 3 days worth of trades, even when specifying time=0.
you can download it from my trading blog at http://btctrading.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/btc_daily.docrename to .csv and open it with excel. Cya |
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I cant, i manually fixed many glitches in the original data, so i'm not going to delete it , too bad but 1h of missing data isnt a disaster.
bitcoincharts is providing only limited history (I think it is 3 days), so if you're mising data in longer history, don't delete your scid file  . good to know btw sometime i report this error: Loading data file c:/SierraChart/data/mtgoxUSD.scid Downloading historical data ['<html> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t<head> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t<title>Bitcoin Charts</title> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t<link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/style.css" type="text/css" /> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t</head> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping [' '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t<body class=""> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t<div id="header" class="clearfix"> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t\t<img width=236 height=32 src="/static/chartslogo.png" /><h1>Bitcoin Char ts</h1> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t</div> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping ['\t\t<div id="container" class="clearfix"> '] Corrupted data for symbol mtgoxUSD, skipping any idea? i've noticed also that using websocket the feed very often hangs up and i've to restart it. |
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I considered 38000 video card such as ATI 5870, 400 mh for 250 watt
38000 x 400 = 15 TH/sec
38000 X 250watt = 9,500,000 = 9.5 MW/hour or 1/100th of a nuclear reactor and not 1/3:)
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I think we are around 1600-1800 bitcoins spent in electricity every day for mining or ~10 MegaWatt/hour for 15 terahash of network speed.
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Yep, M2 represents money and "close substitutes" for money, usually economists use M2 to quantify the amount of money in circulation and used to forecast inflation, it's around 9 trillion USD. thus 9000000/21 = 428,000 usd/btc
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remember to adjust the volume dividing it by 100.
hit F5
go to advanced settings 2
change "volume/open int. multiplier" to 0.01
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I cant, i manually fixed many glitches in the original data, so i'm not going to delete it , too bad but 1h of missing data isnt a disaster.
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i've an hole in the historical data, could be bitcoinchart?
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 19:40:29 1311529229 13.71962 0.3
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 19:40:35 1311529235 13.71962 0.3
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 19:40:40 1311529240 13.71962 0.3
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 19:40:46 1311529246 13.715 0.3
Connection to mtgox open
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 21:04:34 13.786 2.0
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 21:04:34 13.78647 4.86
mtgoxUSD 2011-07-24 21:04:34 13.7999 0.73
i opened sierrachart and i've 1 hour and 24 minutes of missing data.
Any idea?
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I do not agree, the cost for 1 btc for me is 6.62$ per btc and i live in italy where electricity is expensive (0.2$ KW/h) and i can sell at 13.7$. Price can drop to 9$ and difficulty rise to 3mln and for an american citizen that pays 0.07$ KW/H it is still profitable to mine(4$ per btc and selling it at 9$) , so there is room for a drop in the price/diff ratio without affecting too much the network speed.
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ma infatti è quello che intendo (presumendo che sia quello che fa anche mtgox). per me le borse sono e rimarranno sempre un cancro da estirpare. chiuderle (ovviamente non dall'oggi al domani) risolverebbe tutti i problemi di crisi finanziarie ecc. ma ovviamente sto sognando.
Non e' chiudendo le borse che risolvi il problema del debito con crisi annesse, casomai chiudi le banche:) ma lascia gli exchanges aperti al grande pubblico. |
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Currently, I'll note a couple of externalities which are probably having an impact and preventing things from going smoothly. First is the SEPA problems with MtGox's French bank. Things are fine in the US with dwolla working smoothly, but MagicalTux has stated that more funds come from Europe than the US. And secondly, there is the constant DDoS attacks on the biggest pools, Deepbit, BTCguild, and slush, which have been interfering with difficulty growth. Then of course there was the MtGox breach (from which they made a spectacular recovery within the week).
These technical difficulties may affect the timeline, so that we see the reversal come later than predicted, after they are sorted out.
I've thought the same, from mtgox website "Going forward, we expect some changes to how SEPA transfers will work once we get setup with our new Bank (which we will announce on July 18th)" i think that around monday 25 July the new funds coming from europeans investors will be available for trading, this new influx of money could help to reverse the trend. |
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The U.S. debt is in dollars guys, if the U.S. Treasury cannot redeem the debt by using tax revenue or more debt then holders of U.S. debt will simply sell their securities to the Federal Reserve:)
And for a remote reason the investors don't want to lend to the U.S. government the Fed will do it. The result in both cases would be quantitative easing on a scale never seen before, this would be incredibly bullish for U.S. and world stock markets. The U.S. government will never default on its debt. The U.S. debt ceiling negotiations is just a comic.
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for following mtgox and other bitcoin exchanges i use sierrachart, for the rest i use amibroker and trading solution 4.
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Just checked. SierraChart (I tested the 730 version) works with Wine + Winetricks on Linux.  yeah, it's better to update frequently, there are always small bugs here and there fixed. |
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