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I'm going to hold as well. The thing with technicals is maybe something changes and before it hits .01 or whatever it is, and technical trader start buying back in. Then suddenly we're sitting here waiting for the .01 that never comes because we have no idea. Then the tech trader comes back and says, oh ya, at .013 the dick-in-hand pattern emerged so I went all-in. Too bad all you suckers that were waiting for .01.
As a trader I don't sweat it.... did I make a decent profit when I sold? Yes? Good. Mission accomplished. So what if I sold a little early. If I have to buy back in later for more expensive, I'm more concerned about getting in at the right time to relatively safely increase my BTC , than I am worried about "losing" or reducing quantities of other coins due to having sold early as a safety precaution. If I'm selling to buy back in, I make damn sure it's a real "high" that we will come down from, not just a temporary stopping level. Then I don't try and wait for the bottom. I buy back in fairly quickly when it's significantly cheaper than I sold it for. If I think there is a bottom somewhere, I'll buy back in a ways before it gets there. I'm satisfied with smaller, safer gains. This keeps me from being a sucker (as often). Basically greed will make one a sucker more often than not I've found. I play the market with any coin I think I can profit from. But, I would never sell high to buy back low unless I had good reason to believe the coin may have long term promise and is not in a long term down trend, etc. For instance I would never try to accumulate LTC in such a fashion, but DRK, certainly. Ultimately my goal is to accumulate BTC though, not DRK... so I will always be selling at the highs and buying back in (whether higher or lower). That may change as this project matures, but so far I still have significant doubts, just due to the odds of success being small, even with great tech. True I may do much better just buying and holding, it's possible, but I feel like it's more of a gamble for me to do that. I feel safe moving in and out of the market frequently and constantly re-evaluating my positions. I guess if you feel more confident in DRKs future, compared to BTCs, then it might feel more risky to lose DRKs by selling. I love DRK, but I must admit I'm much more confident and comfortable holding and accumulating BTC. |
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A lot of people lost coins that they will never see again because they believed they could sell high / buy low - and the low never came. Everytime it was like "yeah, just wait for the dump round the corner"... fud and "analyses" that simply overlooked the astonishing buying strength of the whale buyers.
Most of the time I would rather sell on the highs, always. Then pay very close attention when getting back in. It can be very tricky of course. If you don't want to pay constant attention, it's almost impossible I would say. The reason is because I would rather risk missing out on some profit than be stuck holding a bag. I guess it comes down to how confident one feels with one's current understandings of coin fundamentals, analysis, and in one's own judgement. I started playing that game (sell high, buy back low) with the mindset that I would jump in and make mistakes by experience. If I end up with a bag, or sell too low and get washed out, I ask myself how I can change the way I think about the situation that would have given a better result. I started this being willing to throw money into it as a learning process. I think it would be maddening to expect results without a lot of trial and error and practice at it first. I made mistakes at first, (and still do), but eventually I was able to more than double my portfolio due to increasing my ratio of good calls to bad ones. I'm the farthest thing from an expert (can you tell? lol), I just try to pay close attention, do my best to understand how the market thinks and use common sense. If you don't like analysis or you don't believe in it, and aren't motivated to both make and learn from mistakes, then I agree it's best to avoid trying to play that game. Otherwise I have found it to be fun and profitable so far! |
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In reality the 12h graph on bitcoin wisdom is a positive inverse head and shoulders not some bubble nonsense people talk of
I think I just have to say in mikey's defence, I can't see that "inverse head and shoulders" anywhere on the recent DRK chart. Also, he has offered quite relevant advice which, if it had been taken more constructively might have lead to a more useful discussion for all concerned. He wasn't trying to "diss" the coin, he was offering a perspective on optimising investment strategy in the wake of this huge rise. I don't necessarily agree with him on the bottom, but all the same he's right about technicals trumping fundamentals in extreme cases such as the rise we've just had. Bitcoin had all kinds of positive and negative news (Overstock adoption, China banks) and yet it stuck rigidly to the long term pattern and didn't budge until the new valuation had been properly "baked in". Maybe a picture tells a thousand words: P.S. You can see from the lower of these two that unlike Bitcoin, DRK built itself a bit of a base around 12-14 just prior to that last rise. That's why I don't think it's going to go quite as low as mikey does. But this is splitting hairs. The general principle is that all contributions to a better understanding of where we are are best accepted if offered in good faith. It may be that mikey's in fact was.  +1 toknormal, I very much appreciate your analysis contributions. I thought the "shoulders" in the chart were much lower down, not the top peaks. There were some smaller shoulders a bit above the head around .016 , then we had a spike after that to around .022. The bitfinex rumor and announcement seemed to push us up really fast from there. I think someone posted the inverse head and shoulders in the chart when the price was correcting on that second shoulder around the .015 level before it shot up. |
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So FUDsters. Im bored and waiting for the XC crash to finish so i thought id come here.
Anyways, What's it like being poor?
How many of you still live with your parents?
Would you suck a dick for a statoshi?
Serious questions.
I posted that in the anti DRK thread. I think that shows my true intentions as a supporter of this alt. I think it shows your true maturity level in some respects lol. Not that I care. I think you are genuine in helping with your analysis. I was skeptical when I first saw some of your posts, but you have a pretty good track record from what I've seen so far. Bottom line: don't trust anyone's analysis or advice. always listen openly and think for yourself! |
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Check out the chart, you'll see what I'm saying then.
This guy is a huge XC shill. Check what he posted in the "Uncensored XC thread" & "Darkcoin is a huge scam" thread.  Want to see a progress report on kickass development and why anyone worrying right now is short sighted? https://darkcointalk.org/threads/help-test-rc2-forking-issues.1009/page-13#post-7060Read a couple of posts there. It's a blockchain within a blockchain. I was just trolling the trolls. I was bored. Look, I'm a big supporter of DRK in the long term, you can check my previous posts to verify that. You can also check my previous posts all you'll realise I used to trade professionally. Anyways, I'm just trying to save you guys some money. I know what's coming and I only think its fair to level the playing field and share it with you guys. Just check the 12h charts, then google 'stock bubble pattern' and check out the images. The two are near identical, it's not a coincidence. This dip isn't going to stop anytime soon, yes you might have the occasional bit of support here and there, but DRK is going down. Anyways, I'm still a believer long term, and the price doesn't tie into long term prosperity. I'm just saying, look for yourself. The price is going to continue downwards for a long time to come.. I hope you can look past your emotional attachment to the price and see what's right infront of you. Anyways, ill be back in a week or two to buy back in when the price is at its bottom. I strongly suggest you do the same. Please don't look at this as an attack on the coin, but more me trying to help the community, and more specifically, the newbie traders. I think it's only fair. Anyways, i wont post again on the matter. Good luck guys. I'm extremely new to this game. Mike, thank you for taking the time to share you insights with us! At least one person greatly appreciates it. There are a few others too, who give very experienced analysis and perspectives here. I'm sure you know who you are Thanks! |
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I don't know where we find a short-term bottom (unless this .0168 was it), however I do know that on the logarithmic chart volume and price so far this week are eerily similar to volume and price from April 26-May 2....and look at what happened after May 2.
"Big guys" (smart money) aren't dumping here just like they weren't dumping then. This is all the result of panicky little guys who are overtrading and likely losing their BTC little by little.
JL
Fully agree, I remember the may 2nd. I almost sold all my coins when it hit 0,0025. But before I managed to get it to an exchange it picked up. I vowed not to make these shortterm faulty decisions ever again. And indeed now is not very different to pre 2nd of may, slow decline, little volume, looks like no-one is interested in the coin anymore. And then BAM! edit: not very different Dude. I'm not trying to cause any trouble, but google Stock Bubble Pattern and then look at the 12h chart on bitcoinwisdom. If you think the drop to 0.01 was bad its going to get allot worse. This doesn't mean I don't think DRK will break through 0.1 by the end of summer, I'm just saying its likely that its going to 0.005 first. Check out the chart, you'll see what I'm saying then. I guess we will have to wait and see. I think it is hard for me to take your opinion to heart because you are a trader and looking to maximize short term profits. Also you are a backer and investor in XC coin and I find that to be very bad judgement. I guess some traditional trading people are more about the charts and analytics and less about the technology, community and fundamentals of the coin. Like I said I really appreciate the input but I dont think you are right. I just think a lot of people in cryptos have a short attention span and they cant sit tight for a month and let the product be developed that is their loss and our gain. I think it might be different this time than what the chart suggests because there are more incentives for holding this coin. Not as many people will sell in this particular market, and the supply is fairly scarce. I'm a trader (small-time fledgling hobbyist mind you!). I'm not wild about sitting for a month hoping that my money grows with DRK when I could more actively trade it in that time. I'm not technically knowledgeable enough regarding these technologies and their likelihood of success, nor can I be certain of the motivations and intentions of the people involved, to jump on board a project such as this, and just devote my loyalty to it... nor to any other similar projects for that matter. I'm also not the sort that takes other peoples' word for anything I can't know or understand for myself. I actually sold half my DRK when the market went to sleep because I saw other more active opportunities. I could now take that money and buy more DRKS than I had before. I trade for BTC profits, bottom line. That being said I still admire the goals and features of projects such as this. To the true believers that are convinced this is the one project that will succeed where so many others will then fail... hey more power to you, maybe you're right! |
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At this time, isn't price is about what the whales happen to decide to do with their money more than anything? If DRK makes it long term, then sure, it will be worth a lot. But that still seems kind of like a hefty "if" to me, and short-term, all bets are off as well because the P&Ds make it very difficult to know what will happen to price (unless you're one of them lol).
That's why I said gauge what the largest stakeholders are doing with their money by looking at the top wallets (exclude exchanges). They clearly have a lot more at stake than the smaller coinholders and if they still see value in adding, there must be some sort of reason behind the madness. I don't disagree that price is at least being manipulated to an extent, especially with the low volume dumps, but it's hard for me to decide to part with anything substantial being that the book just isn't there with available orders (that leaves me feeling uncomfortable buying back what I'd sell without price moving substantially to the upside). I think you make a very significant point, and I agree. So far the big holders, are well, holding. That's a good sign, enough for me to hold too. That being said I'm a bit divided about it, I certainly have no great confidence. Yes, they seem to be holding FOR NOW. I don't really think they are religious about it or anything, if they see the right indicators or lose confidence for some reason, they will dump. And if they did..... I'm down about 50 BTC from buying up a large portion of the wall at .024... to put things into further perspective, if I wanted to sell say 60btc of my stash, I'd move the price down to 170 on MP, however, if for whatever reason I wanted those coins back, price would move all the way up to around 185. Let the small traders have their day, but the majority with quite a few coins, aren't trying to swing trade this. There is a ton of liquidity off the book. You saw that when 5-10k coin orders bought the book up to 190ish today. They aren't sitting with their massive buy orders on the book, they are just patiently waiting for enough orders to stack up before mowing down. I've noticed that. I've noticed a general difference in the DRK rise over the last week in that regard. It didn't seem like a normal pump to me... there were more buyers waiting in stealth for the opportune moment to stock up. They didn't want to raise the price with buy orders. On the other hand it's difficult to gauge the selling pressure now for the same reason... the dumpers filling orders down to a specific level, wait... let it replenish, repeat, until no one wants to put buy orders at that level, only then dumping lower. It's a big poker game it seems and no one wants to show their hand on the order book. A lot of us I think are just holding our breath wondering what will happen now. I am. In the end, holding seems a little safer than dumping to me. Like everyone else, I've lost coins by selling when I thought the price would go down more, then having to buy back later for more... If I had to guess (99% chance this will be wrong!) I would say that the price will flatten out at some level probably around 0.15 - 0.17 for a while (maybe dipping as low as .014), for 3 or 4 days maybe, eventually climbing gradually, and finally making another rally as we get closer to the next release... I think it's the masternode payments coming back online in a couple of weeks. That's what my gut says is likely... as long as no major problems arise or competition doesn't step up their game massively or any other thing to make the big holders dump. I hope everyone holds, but I could not in good conscience "advise" that (with any confidence). edit: I have never been on this forum before under another nick, but I have made an arse out of myself many times, and doubtless will again! |
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At this time, isn't price is about what the whales happen to decide to do with their money more than anything? If DRK makes it long term, then sure, it will be worth a lot. But that still seems kind of like a hefty "if" to me, and short-term, all bets are off as well because the P&Ds make it very difficult to know what will happen to price (unless you're one of them lol).
That's why I said gauge what the largest stakeholders are doing with their money by looking at the top wallets (exclude exchanges). They clearly have a lot more at stake than the smaller coinholders and if they still see value in adding, there must be some sort of reason behind the madness. I don't disagree that price is at least being manipulated to an extent, especially with the low volume dumps, but it's hard for me to decide to part with anything substantial being that the book just isn't there with available orders (that leaves me feeling uncomfortable buying back what I'd sell without price moving substantially to the upside). I think you make a very significant point, and I agree. So far the big holders, are well, holding. That's a good sign, enough for me to hold too. That being said I'm a bit divided about it, I certainly have no great confidence. Yes, they seem to be holding FOR NOW. I don't really think they are religious about it or anything, if they see the right indicators or lose confidence for some reason, they will dump. And if they did..... |
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Why is Darkcoin so valuable?
Let me give you a business analogy to try an see if I can make it more clear as to why Darkcoin is so valuable. When you think about miners, difficulty, etc, you are thinking too hi in the supply chain. In my mind the miners are part of the "manufacturing" of the product(the coin), so by solving the problems of the miners you are solving manufacturing issues, which is good but in this times is not the key factor, then you have the exchanges and traders which in my mind are one level below in the supply chain they are part of the "distribution channels" the mission of the "distributors" is to spread the coin and promote adoption, buy for x / sell for y and keep a profit, facilitate the exchange and keep a commission in the case of exchanges. And then you have the "consumer" the end user and modern business dictates that we should focus on the needs of the end user of the product. Other coins like Vertcoin focuses on the miners, in my mind a coin like Blackcoin is self-contained and focuses on the investors (PoS), same with most coins, they really don’t offer anything to the consumer that Bitcoin (the market leader) does not offer, they don’t have good differentiators or added value from the perspective of the consumer.
Now what is something that Bitcoin does not have but people desperately want? Privacy! And that is where Darkcoin comes in, it offers something valuable to the consumer and they will use it. Merchant adoption will take time for Darkcoin, but that doesn’t matter, Darkcoin offers new things unrelated to retail: store of value, a way for other coins to anonymize transactions e.g. you have Bitcoins you change for Darkcoins send to a different address then buy Bitcoins again you are done. So Darkcoin is private banking for cryptos.
The coin is of really good quality all around, new algorithm X11 for which Asics will come a lot later in the coins life allowing it to develop as opposed to killing it in the crib. Scarcity and a very nice deflation model making it ideal for long term investment and as a store of value. Added value for the end users beyond what Bitcoin offers through its privacy features, and most importantly a world class development team that has shown transparency, creativity and competence that will continue developing new features and strengthening the coin. So in my mind, if Cryptocurrencies don’t disappear (and I don’t think they will disappear) Darkcoin will be a high value product with private banking applications. AlexGR made a nice metal analogy where Darkcoin would be platinum. So keep your coins safe as they will be worth a lot more in the future.
Obviously the features that DRK provides are extremely valuable, and the I applaud the project enthusiastically as well (as I would other similar projects)... but I must say your (and others') confidence of future valuation seems a little on the optimistic side. No one can say for certain what technology will end up being widely adopted for anonymity. Maybe DRK is the best contender at this point in time... even if it is, it's still no certainty that it will remain so or end up winning this game in the end. Seems as likely as not that some other tech gets adopted to fill this need and DRK fades away. I can't say the best tech is necessarily the clear winner either... mass appeal is a more important factor I would guess. At this time, isn't price is about what the whales happen to decide to do with their money more than anything? If DRK makes it long term, then sure, it will be worth a lot. But that still seems kind of like a hefty "if" to me, and short-term, all bets are off as well because the P&Ds make it very difficult to know what will happen to price (unless you're one of them lol). I'm both grateful and skeptical of people who provide insight and analysis. There are some smart people here, but there are also a lot of deceptive people, and people with the agenda of protecting or growing their investment, and everything they say is written for that purpose rather than being truthful. I'm not accusing anyone of being this way, honestly I can't tell very well who is and who isn't (yeah I'm a noob), and I'm sure there is a lot of innocent exuberance as well... but I think it's good to be a little skeptical of any predictions regarding future valuation esp ones made with confidence. |
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prepare for the crash of the alts
I don't get this. At Bitcoin's all time high - back in December, PPC and XPM were at 0.05 and 0.04 respectively (now much less). Litecoin was 0.03 (now 0.017). Whenever Bitcoin declines, all the alts decline faster. Whenever Bitcoin climbs, all the alts do well since there's more money in crypto generally. Why should be "prepare for the crash of the alts" ? No obvious reason , of course. Bitcoin price is going up so all the alts will follow. I would have to agree with that for the long term (based on the past). I'm wondering though if a lot of P&D whales are taking their money out of alts for the time being at least, and using it in the BTC/USD market more... much more liquidity, lot of big movements lately and strong uptrend could be attracting them. Perhaps why we're seeing a big drop off in volume and momentum with alts in general and otherwise prospering coins? Just a theory. I'm guessing they pumped, then they dumped, and now they are too busy with BTC/USD to pump alts more. I'm pretty new to this stuff so it's probably all wrong lol. |
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Considering how silent the staff of Bitfinex has been on the DRK issue, it looks like DRK will be added very soon. At least that is my interpretation.
Why are we seeing this evidence of bitfinex adding DRK while they are staying officially silent about the matter? Did they do this deliberately to cause the rumor before their announcement? Kind of seems logical... why else? Not so bad as long as we get an announcement soon and not a huge dump of their DRK holdings instead... I personally think they are more professional than that, but the thought crossed my mind lol. |
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I hope you people talking up this bitfinex stuff realise that this now HAS to happen otherwise we'll have a crash on our hands.
This development has now been getting slowly priced in over the last 24-48 hours, in particular regarding the fact that a correction was due yesterday that didn't occur - the price went up instead.
That's the price of jumping on these kind of rumours.
The rumour will be bought and the news will be sold. When bitfinex come out and state that periodically run viability tests on their new API functions using a variety of tickers but currently no plans to add any alts then that's going to no be seen as negative news and trigger a good old dump.
Just saying'. Watch what you talk up.
What's the possibility that BFX want this to be priced in somewhat before they make a sudden announcement? Any reason they might be letting these sneak peeks out deliberately for that reason? So if they are Mr. X (the one with biggest wallet), that would make sense. But I do not think Mr. X is an exchange... I was just wondering whether it would be in their interest to drop a bomb with a sudden announcement, or to have the market basically absorb the impact in a softer way. |
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I hope you people talking up this bitfinex stuff realise that this now HAS to happen otherwise we'll have a crash on our hands.
This development has now been getting slowly priced in over the last 24-48 hours, in particular regarding the fact that a correction was due yesterday that didn't occur - the price went up instead.
That's the price of jumping on these kind of rumours.
The rumour will be bought and the news will be sold. When bitfinex come out and state that periodically run viability tests on their new API functions using a variety of tickers but currently no plans to add any alts then that's going to no be seen as negative news and trigger a good old dump.
Just saying'. Watch what you talk up.
What's the possibility that BFX want this to be priced in somewhat before they make a sudden announcement? Any reason they might be letting these sneak peeks out deliberately for that reason? |
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