Hi Vandroiy, could you list your bet in GLBSE so that we can join this bet? I am not a BTCST doubter, actually I have 4 digit coins in BTCST related ventures. I just want a way of insurance for my funds in BTCST, even we lose the bet they will go to charity, why not?

Nanotube said he has some thoughts about the exact wording and will work on that. He just wants to be sure we don't fight in the end... I wonder why! I doubt it in this case, but why not let him be safe.

I suggested we pay him 100 BTC for the escrow, so we transfer 5050 BTC each. Is that OK? I'll be back tomorrow to post the exact bet with signature and, if you like the final version, transfer the funds.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

American insurance: biggest ponzi scheme ever

@Pirateat40: lol you're such a dude. Aah. I'll remember you whatever happens now.

Wow, did you seriously just quote Dr. Dre?

 
Correct! You will get your deposits regardless and you don't seem to care enough about people continuously slandering you to do such a thing.

If there is any truth at all to what you are saying, then I challenge you to search for a trusted third party (theymos or Maged perhaps, or someone who has no outspoken stance on this like nanotube), share your story how it is you think one can pay out 7% a week on now 6 digit BTC debt for now 8 months (while the debt continuosly grows), and they can confirm if your theory makes any sense or not.

There's an official bet thread?

@Pirate: Sooner or later you're going to have to disclose your business model to quell the doubters.  Otherwise you're going to be losing more business to people pulling out than you would to other competitors adopting your same strategy.  Or, having 50% of your niche market is better than having 100% of nothing.

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

It doesn't make sense. How was he able to manipulate the market rates at the beginning, before he found investors? He offered 7% right from the get-go. Gox volume per day is 45,680 bitcoins roughly. Pirate did not have anywhere close to that amount invested in his Pirate-Pussy-Fund.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.

I had to.

Hmmmmmm. What are you plotting, I wonder?

You might just be about to run and wager with that option; chances are I'll be too careful since you have a lot more control and inside knowledge. But betting directly with you makes all this obvious.

What time-frame and odds are the best you can do? Edit: oh, and do you guarantee some rate of returns during that time, so you can't just stall for ages?

Edit: hahaha, I think he just read my chatter on IRC and noted he's in a pinch. Expect a pointlessly low max time frame or some other hook to get out. Watch a failed attempt to show how legit he is live, in this thread, it'll be fun.

Well, unlike Pirateat40 about me I am not saying he is stupid. I said he's an incompetent trader, but that's a different thing. I've pretty much shown it, and it's a really useful part of the argument in this case.

Pirateat40 is pretty good at what he does, and certainly not stupid. Look how he acts like he doesn't care at all, and tries to put on a facade of me having said nothing of meaning.

Leaving money with him after reading this thread, though... and all the others that point out massive problems... yeah. Sorry, that's just stupid. I could just not care, but I'm in too deep now. My reputation is unusable until this ends because I'm accused of massive slander.