Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.

[pirateat40]

You're the one that doubts me.  Since you're so sure you're right why do you need odds?  1:1 is good with me, you set up the bet.

Pirate will default by X.

Remember, we are taking about default here.  Not closing down BS&T with everyone happy.

Put your month were you're mouth is and I'll match every coin.

EDIT: And no, I know you think you're the grand master chief around these parts but I didn't catch your "chatter" on IRC.  Where was it?

The chatter doesn't matter, let's do it concisely here. Please, what's a valid number for X? Are you saying until next year or some few weeks like otherwise proposed? It's pretty hard to tell whether you have some whale who keeps you alive for a tad longer. And worse, you probably know that better than I, so I need some slack on the timing.

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

[Vandroiy]

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

[rjk]

I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.

[pirateat40]

Default is out of the question, so naturally I don't care when X is.

So, just to make this clear, I can do a bet on default for a time like End-2013 or worse, and that's OK. 1:1 bet on you defaulting?

This sounds doable. I don't see how it makes any sense for you, but that's not my problem, is it? I'll just have to ask around for some third parties.

Right but you must add that if BS&T makes it public (at anytime prior to the deadline) that it's closed and all coins were returned and confirmed I win the bet.

[Vandroiy]

Wait, I get it. When you default, the users come raging at me screaming I have their money.

But given how they act, I'm not so certain I would have to react to that. The third party just has to consider this feasible, since by now, it's pretty damn clear what everyone's stances are. If the alternative is you running away with it or me doing a charity attack, the bet is still the right choice.

I was going to suggest around 18 months or so.

Yea, my thinking too.

Pirateat40: Yes, that's OK. If you return that kind of interest, even prematurely, I can lose a 1:1 bet. I guess it's the point at hand here; I can't bet too much that your profit from that deals with things.

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

[rjk]

I don't want to force anyone to become the coin holder, but if it comes down to a bet I could suggest the following names:

nanotube
DeathAndTaxes
theymos
Keefe

unless someone else wants to volunteer.

[pirateat40]

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

[Vandroiy]

...

Oh wow. It'll take a bit until I answer though, it's not like I have tons of BTC on my mobile or anything. Gotta talk with one of the traders.

[Raoul Duke]

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

...and get bankrupt on the process... lol

[organofcorti]

One thing though, can I raise the bet later during its run-time? My odds should be worse by then, no? Otherwise it'll take a moment longer because I can't settle on an amount quickly.

Normally sure, but I'm not going to be sitting around watching the bet while you add mining additions day by day.  You sound sure enough now, why wait?  I'm sure you could collect a bunch from all the other doubters.  This is your chance, STICK IT TO THE MAN!

...and get bankrupt on the process... lol

Well, not for the doubters. They stand to lose at most a year's (or 18 months' or whatever) access to the coin they invest. The Pro pirate bond buyers would lose their capital and up to half their interest if Pirate defaults. Neither side goes bankrupt, at least no more bankrupt than they already would be.

[pirateat40]

I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

[organofcorti]

I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?

[pirateat40]

I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?

No, but Ill make one when we get the details sorted out.

[organofcorti]

I'll go on record here and on the official bet thread created that the winnings (if I win of course) of bet will go directly to a charity of the communities choosing.

There's an official bet thread?

No, but Ill make one when we get the details sorted out.

I was just about to go and set up these bonds on GLBSE - I think I'll wait to see if someone's come up with an easier way to do this.

[nimda]

When do you (you being any anti-pirate person) think it's collapsing? Can I make more by betting against you than if I just gave my coins to Pirate?
How about I give 1BTC to escrow, and you give 1BTC to escrow, and the escrow pays out 0.071 per week to me, then if pirate defaults, you get the whole 1BTC from me, plus whatever's left of your capital?

[Vandroiy]

nimda: yea, if you find an escrow that does that, it would be safer contract-wise.

Otherwise, here's the situation:

If we get an escrow that we trust and actually pays us in the default case, even though it is known that the funds for the bet were stolen, we join the bet. I want to add that I do not believe this is unethical, or a better solution reasonable: nobody would trust any accounting after the default, so the funds are pretty lost anyway. Also, escrow betting is not zero risk no matter how certain we are.

To not trigger the default by accident, we're sticking with 5000 BTC. If we lose -- well, then the 5k BTC charity will hopefully excuse the flamewar.


@Pirateat40: lol you're such a dude. Aah. I'll remember you whatever happens now.

[pirateat40]

@Pirateat40: lol you're such a dude. Aah. I'll remember you whatever happens now.

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you. 

Ready when you are.

[Serge]

loser should also eat his hat or something ))

[Vandroiy]

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

[pirateat40]

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.