??

Are we back on track? Odds 7200 was the post glade bottom: 3/51

There is a limit on how far you can disconnect fundamentals from trading. If someone can make a case for the price rising with inflows slowing down what is it? Once I make it to Jr member I promise to only post in a more enjoyable image-based meme form.

I'm only looking at things from a trading perspective. If people think a double top is within reach I would love to know why, if it happens I will be rekt.

Reasons this cannot be a 2013 style double bubble:

A new run would require an infusion of fresh speculative money. The infrastructure cannot scale up quick enough for this to happen. Coinbase was the #1 app, how is it supposed to go up from there? It used to be wiring money to a shady loser card game exchange, now anyone with a bank account can move money in. Until you can buy it right on the Nasdaq or something it can't get any easier. When 30,000 people know about BTC you can go to 30 million. You can't go from 30 million to 30 billion, even 30% of the population having heard of it to 50% is an enormous step that is almost impossible.

Without fresh money to pay off old holders the price cannot continue to rise. Without the promise of new ATH there is no reason to buy.

No double bubble means the limit here was 11.7, and with that fallen it has probably moved down to 9.7. Tick Tock, when BTC looks down and isn't standing on the ground it has to go someplace solid, $5,500, then when it is getting up and looking around it sees it still didn't fall all the way.

:Wile-e-Coyote:

I might need to adjust my models here, your explanations kind of make sense. Make-believe prices being swung be make-believe events, why not-

Can anyone come up with even a half-plausible explanation for the G20 to had any effect what-so-ever on the price?

They don't just all meet in a room, create and enforce global policy. At best it is small incremental amounts of policy coordination worked through each national government. This should be seen as .1% of the puzzle compared to the real action, the natural price cycles of waay way up, and what comes after..

The drop got ahead of itself here? The price is anchored by the most recent traded price, that is all there really is with something like BTC. Mar 7 dump seemed to spook things. If destiny remains 5.5k, this mini pump could mirror something like Jan 17 or Feb 2. A run up to mid/hi 8s, then resume panic crash mode?

BTC as a payment method has almost never existed. It filled a niche for mid size grey market payments, that is about it. The idea of using it to buy coffee or houses was pushed by the incompetent/collusive.

For trading BTC and other coins don't even need to exist, the could just be abstract accounting ledger entries on centralized exchanges and the system as a whole would be much better. No wasted energy, contentious forks, etc.. The collective force projection of government is the only thing that can possibly have enough power to be trusted.

Lets get some bounce ideas:


'Standard View'

Last level of strong support from the past remaining is around 5500. Look for a reversal in this area.

Other Possibilities

Major liquidity withdrawal event occurs (Tether, big exchange closing, country closing)

-> Big event could push it down to cycle lows of 3k, if not for a while then certainly in a mega hammer candle

-> What else?

Scenario: New Years 2019
BTC Price: 3800

'Prime' Alts

ETH   .043   165
XRP    3k     .10
LTC    .008   30
BCH    .08    304
XMR   .015    57

I would consider these numbers as reflecting prices that held up pretty well.

Topics:

-Will any alts diverge significantly before the crash is over? A new bull run in 202x will see big winners that outperform, can any existing alts outperform (less relative loss counts) in a crash?

-Are these numbers reasonable? Is there any chance that a crash doesn't hurt alts more than BTC? They are all up way more this run in % terms, so simple thought is that they have much further to fall.

Their mentality is spot-on. You can't convince these people to load in, they have to do if for themselves at the absolute peak. Almost everything said by these big bankers is trivially true, I think this explains the reactions from Dimon etc when BTC is brought up, it is a form of bemusement on their part that people cannot see something so obvious.

This will mostly illustrate how completely inferior BTC is a payment method.

-Several orders of magnitude too long of wait times
-Technically complex, with risk of total loss anytime coins are transferred
-No protection or chargebacks (a feature demanded by consumers)
-Unstable value
-No built in ancillary services such as credit
-Public for all the world to see forever

Bitcoin as a system is fatally flawed and should end up worthless. This is also what the world should be rooting for, the more BTC succeeds on a large scale the worse off we are collectively.

Even if you don't agree you should be able to list the reasons why someone would feel this way and have strong counters to them.

Duration:

Glade - 6 weeks
Glide -  6 months

Beginning:

Glade - 3 year record breaking volume after 70% decline
Glide  - ? Another volume bounce indicator somewhere around 5.5k ?

End

Glade - Attempts to bust past a 100% increase or reach any level that will credibly start a new bull run fizzle out (failing at 11.8 twice, then at 10 on the way down sealed it as over)
Glide -  ? Same as above, trying to get past 10k fails ?

I meant a bounce off of something like 6400 back up to 7400. Logic:

- People are paying 8k a coin right now = market is a long way from accepting that things are over
- Things aren't over = Traders will expect a bottom or bounce somewhere soon

Result is a bounce. The big one will be for the next sizable glade. On the way to this final glade it can't go straight down from 9k to 5k, it has to bounce somewhere along the way.

Premise: Heading down to 5.x (Last area of significant support, 3.5k is just too much too soon right now)

Under bitphysics™ this means at least one material sized interim bounce on the way down. Anyone with a supportable plan to catch it?

News = almost 0 relevance to the price

In a dump the pope himself could canonize any one who buys and not move the price up an inch. Only exchange/country closures can move it on a dime, as that cuts off the money at the source.

Next bounce plays out like the original glade, just scaled down slightly?

Buying/Short Closing Guide:

-Wait for a fall of at least 50-70% off the bounce (4-6k)
-Switch vol to 12hr and look for a spike that recalls Feb 6

Let it run back up to 8.5k

-Wait for a fall of at least 50-70%
-Enjoy life during 4 years of winter