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Price right now on the USD exchanges:
"Maybe, if I vewy vewy quietly sneak towards 1k nobody will notice :3"
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Posts are pretty frequently deleted here compared to in the past. Far more so than on other threads, I know this from personal experience. Nothing was taboo here once upon a time, but policy seems to have changed somewhat. It is also true that different threads are moderated differently and always have been. I've had a grand total of 3 posts deleted on bitcointalk. An interesting data point is that 2 of those were in this thread in the last few weeks and BOTH were on-topic but were in response to posts by adam (his new account). I think I got caught in a cross-fire there. That seems to me to indicate a newish attitude by mod(s?). Wasn't aware of that. I'll have to look into it myself and find out if I see it like that as well or not. I've remained on this forum, because, chaotic, ugly and sometimes downright noxious as it may be, it still felt like the right place to me. But if there's a new directive, or even if the effect is such that it resembles one, something like 'moderating towards a greater goal', it would change my perception of the place. |
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 We're on our way to salvation salivation. amirite?  Hey Oda - long time no see... Love to know what your crystal ball says. Hey again  I've been around, just not posting much. Not much insights I can offer at the moment, I guess I'm mostly on board with the popular sentiment in here. The current trend looks well established and pretty robust -- and it's not like there hasn't been sufficient testing it to the downside. The one sentiment I don't know about is the idea of another 'super bubble' anytime soon, or: at any time during the coming years. Sure, it could happen, but I also see the market as a lot more mature now than when I first saw it (and then it was already a lot more mature than during the 2011 rise), so while I can still the possibility of another parabolic rally, I'm personally not placing my money on it. |
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We're on our way to salvation salivation. amirite? ;) |
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Your name is "ErisDiscordia", which is either a female name or some type of extreme beta male name and women do not fight in wars, they're only bystanders then just conform to whoever the winner is. You have no role in this regardless. We're not playing games. We're not trying to impress bimbos. We're throwing out the children and cuckolds from power to restore order.
And your name is Roach I suppose by calling others "beta" you define yourself as "alpha". By any chance, have you heard what Tywin Lannister has to say about men who say "I am the king!"? No, I'm just a regular person surrounded by shabbos goy cuckolds. 2-3% or so of people fought in the war against the British in the US while the other 98% stand on the sideline and conform to whoever the winner is. Those 2-3% aren't the alpha males persay, but they damn sure weren't the cuckolds.Well, aaaactually... being far away from home and your loved one, for an extended amount of time, historically seems to be one of the prime opportunities to be turned into a cuckold :3 |
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(to windjc)
Hey, look who's here! Glad to see you, champ!
(to himself)
Damn, he showed up after all. And here I was thinking I could keep the reward. Screw this guy and his hoverboard.
Transfer's on the way. Well deserved bonus, that was an exceptionally accurate prediction. If there's another game like this, hope you can join again.
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Congrats to the winner did he replyed yet or he allready got so much money predicting the value he dont even care
Haha, no, he didn't respond yet. And, well, I do think windjc has been a pretty successful trader, but if I had to guess, lack of an answer is more due to infrequent forum presence than anything else. I'm writing him a PM now, and then let's wait another week to see if he drops by to collect. |
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I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.
Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one. I would certainly be up for it :-) . I thought the range guessing was a very interesting setup, but just guessing a price would be easier.Maybe I should have stated this more clearly, but contestants were able to enter a point estimate -- it just means that you were at a disadvantage to actually 'hit' the correct price compared to those entering a range, while having a major advantage on the second criterion ("width of range"). |
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BitcoinWisdom is still one of the best charting sites out there right now (for a quick price check and simpler analysis), with cryptowat.ch coming in as a close second -- the main disadvantage of the latter is that it's slightly less responsive/fast than wisdom. But I'm honestly starting to wonder if u/BitcoinWisdom has left the project behind to focus on other things, considering that there hasn't been any appearance in here (or on twitter) for about a year by now, while in the past, he was always fast to respond to questions/feature requests. |
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Shorting in a bull-market with low swings is very risky, is it really worth that risk to earn a few bucks?
There are always people who going for max risk max profits...but i dont think Ask is that kind of hardcore gambler.
Of course it's not worth the risk, unless you can watch the market very closely, then the risk is manageable.I don't short these days, am waiting for a clear signal to start shorting, and I saw none yet. For once, we agree  Also, people in here throw around the term 'shorting' to simply mean 'sell in order to re-buy at a lower price'. And while the amplitude of swings in the past year has been somewhat lower than in the years before, there's still plenty of room for momentum traders to take advantage of these swings -- iff they are willing to watch the market closely, and don't get too attached to a position that, by all current signs, sits against the larger trend. I don't have time and/or nerves at the moment to do so, but to pretend that the only option right now is to hodl until price reached a new ATHis book talking, imo, not genuine trading advice or discussion. |
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This is more like a rattly subway than a train.
Comparing the chart now to that of 3 years ago: agreed. But there's a corollary to it as well. That statistically inevitable crash of a rattly subway is usually a lot less spectacular than that of some high-speed train being vaporized after running over a small stone on the rails. |
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We're doing a guessing game? I like it. How about: make a guess for the poster you're responding to, who in turn makes a guess about you. (pointless, I know, but fun ) Wee, I wanna play. 200 BTC. You registered this account when price was between $50 and $100. Judging by your first posts however, I get the feeling that's either not your first account on here, or you've been exposed to Bitcoin before registering. If that's the case, all bets are off, depending on whether you seized the very early opportunity or not (no shame if it's the latter -- I'm just mentioning the possibilities). Because of that uncertainty, to stay within semi-acceptable (to me ) confidence, I'll have to give a pretty wide range. Say: More than 100, less than 5000. (edit) Your estimate is a bit off, but less than an OOM, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
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We're doing a guessing game? I like it. How about: make a guess for the poster you're responding to, who in turn makes a guess about you. (pointless, I know, but fun ) |
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Maybe in a few months ;-) ?
That's the spirit! I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy.
Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one. |
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Just to wrap it all up:
A year ago, when the contestants entered their predictions, the price (by the same metric as used above) was 337 USD, so up ~117% since then. Not quite as much as the majority of contestants predicted, but not too shabby either imo ;)
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And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:
windjc
As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.
Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.
The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).
Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, Harrywindjc!
Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).
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^*
I admit, I've been guilty of off-topic posting in luc's thread(s) myself, but you guys are off-topicking in the worst way possible:
You're discussing fundamentals, shmundamentals in one of the best technical threads there is in here :D
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Why looking for someone that far away for a good doomsday prediction? We have our very own RyNinDaCleM (one of the most competent traders I've ever had the pleasure of reading in here, btw) who some long time ago raised the possibility of a lasting bear market that (semi quote, from leaky memory) wouldn't be over while he's still alive. Should probably add, I don't remember how serious I thought he was. Anyway, I don't think even he said anything about that killing Bitcoin though. Technical traders look at just that: market factors visible from price and volume (maybe a few more elements related to the process of trading). Leave the fundamental bs to the less successful traders |
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Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.
I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.
But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.
P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH. [Sorry for the OT post in this great thread. Will be the only one.] Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later. Lesson learned (I hope). |
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Regarding trading: Speculation is 20% of the traders making money off of the other 80%. If you can't spot the sucker at the table...
I like that line a lot. Think I'm going to nick it, for use in future discussion. It can even be seen as a succinct way to capture why some people believe in the EMH even though technically the EMH is unlikely to be true, universally - it's probably true for the majority, so it makes sense for them to stick with the claim. |
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