Say what? Weekly and daily ADX show reversal. "V" formation on charts is a reversal struct. Price closed back inside weekly bb and in positive daily BB zone.
We may expect some bounce (1-2 months) into 500-600 area. But I am skeptic about further bullish move. Wake me up at 500, I'll post next analysis.
Nice summary. Pretty close to my own expectations, that are (vaguely): first, a rise out of the bottom that confuses the bears. So far, volume is there to support it. Then, when it looks like we're back in a full bull market (~600, maybe), either volume keeps up and we actually *are* going into a real bull market, or, like in May/June, volume fizzles out again and we top out, entering another downwards slide, slow first, then accelerating. |
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call the police....wait....mail to support first  Haha, nice one. Others already said all the important parts, I'll just summarize it one more time: The procedure on Bitstamp appears to be: 1) user withdrawal request, leading to: 2) email confirmation, leading to: 3) clearing of withdrawal. if withdrawn amount is "large", it might require manual clearing by Bitstamp employee, which can take a few hours, if amount is small, clearing appears to be automatic. followed by: 4) transaction going out, once enough withdrawals are collected (probably done so Bitstamp doesn't have to pay fees for each tiny transaction they send out) By the looks of it, for some reason, the step between 1) and 2) got interrupted. Write to support (from within your account, i.e. when you're logged in), they should fix it in less than a day, unless there's some other problem (like, your account identification wasn't done properly). |
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Guys, I'm worried about Notlambchop.
The only reason I can imagine why he wouldn't be posting now is if he had a terrible accident...
I mean, he usually spams the thread with brony memes and other random pics, I cannot fathom why he wouldn't be posting now.
^_^
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Stamp's bid side is depleted (figuratively speaking). If you look at stamp's bid/ask over the last 24-48 hours, you'll see that a number of big buys correspond to big drops in bid/ask. In other words, Stamp is probably partially responsible that we're going up right now, by traders losing patience and pulling bids from the book to market buy, but now they're out of fuel somewhat.
No, China is responsible for the uptrend, Stamp just followed. As for the "bid depletion", it also happens on BTC-E and BTCChina, but not Huobi. Not really. At least not if we talk about the same time scale. Major buy today at 4 pm on stamp was not preceded by anything on finex, huobi, or okcoin. But then, stamp didn't follow up with any volume to speak of. See my remark about order book thinning out, compared to 2 days ago. Not wanting to believe it doesn't make it go away, btw, dear bulltists. Anyway, finex *did* follow up with volume over late afternoon / early evening, as well as China, and now Finex is pulling the main weight again. P.S. Don't worry about my position, klee. I'm long since long enough  |
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Stamp's bid side is depleted (figuratively speaking). If you look at stamp's bid/ask over the last 24-48 hours, you'll see that a number of big buys correspond to big drops in bid/ask. In other words, Stamp is probably partially responsible that we're going up right now, by traders losing patience and pulling bids from the book to market buy, but now they're out of fuel somewhat.
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Just a quick visualization of some of the data, for your (and my own) amusement... Weighted daily price (Bitstamp) vs. Secondmarket 'Estimated Net Buying/Selling' (>100 BTC only), from 2014-05-01 to 2014-10-13 Note that the Net Buying values probably have to be shifted left by a few days in reality, since they represent a net change that took place in the recent past.  (nb: price and net buying not on the same y scale.) |
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Close above daily sma20: check (barely so, but check)  Weekly green candle, high volume close above lower BB, and above 30 RSI: check.  ~3 month downtrend, upper line: still unbroken  Bitcoin has a way to keep things interesting. |
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Current triangle on Bitstamp. Touching lower line, but reluctant to break down so far.
I like this one also, more of a clusterfuck  https://i.imgur.com/arqYxhD.pngHaha, nice. So basically, it looks like we both don't know what we're doing... Or maybe, the market doesn't either, and we're just picking that up. Yeah, that sounds much better  |
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Current triangle on Bitstamp. Touching lower line, but reluctant to break down so far.  |
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we are "on a break" until i "get my act together"
fucking fuck fuck!
i'm gonna go be pissed off now.
Your personal life not being any of my business of course, but, that said: any chance the "getting your act together" involves Le Coin, and the time/emotional investment into it? If so, I admit that I know the problem (not with wife, but gf), and that it can make sense to draw some line somewhere, like declare one or the other day crypto free, for example. |
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Bah.... 395. A bit higher. But I was surprised how fast. ...... When earlier at 266 bubble bitcoin copied out US stock indexes - it now copies gold moves. Question: A few posts earlier you said that the pullback from 275 didn't look very impulsive to you. I have to admit, I didn't see it like that (but you seem to be right). To me, the quick move from 330 to 380 looked very impulsive. What made you think it wasn't? |
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Makes sense, but I doubt it's the right one. By your count, ~350 is the top of the retracement from the $275 bottom. I expect more from it, $360, $380, maybe more, based on volume mainly. What happens afterwards remains to be seen, although I'm also leaning towards another test of 2xx eventually. Let's come back to it in a week  from an ew perspective, it makes so much sense. 360-380 could not be explained, passing into the territory of wave i. so far we have only unfolded in 3's, thats entirely what triangles are made of. wave iv's tend to be triangles, and reside in the territory of wave iv. Ill say no more, but definitely ill be watching over the week. Welp. That took less than a week after all. ($370 top, so far.) New main count in order? P.S. Also, to separate myself from some of the more trollish posts in here: I don't question TA in general, or EW in particular. I was just skeptical about your count suggesting we'd top at around $350. |
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Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.
Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.
Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.
/rant
I always believed that anyone sitting constantly watching this thread and trying to predict movement was playing with a lot of coin. It hardly seems worth it to me if your not. Then you didn't get my point, or I didn't make it clear enough: The "old school" example of millionaire/billionaire bets (that I know of) are for sums as well that "aren't really worth it" for the people involved. I always assumed they make those relatively modest bets because a) it doesn't look too outlandish to the general population, and b) it serves the purpose: "putting money where one's mouth is". But, yes, if your main goal of a public bet is to make money with it, then high stakes are necessary I suppose. |
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Those "1 QUADRILLION!!! btc" bets are so off-putting. Last one that I remember that completely failed was something between rpietila and windjc, iirc.
Point is, with a stake that high (even for the "big holders"), it never comes to fruition. Take a hint from the regular money rich dudes: when they make a public bet, it's in a reasonable range: cigars worth a few thousand dollars. 10k to a charity. Stuff like that. They don't always need to flash 25% of their net worth to make a bet.
Hence my suggestion: if you want to call someone out on a statement, in the form of a bet, make it in the range of a few k USD. 5 BTC. 10 maybe. It's enough to make your point, looks good, and most importantly: it's not so bloated an amount that it never will be taken up.
/rant
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bears be like : my walls, my walls are about to be eaten, better market sell now b4 blast off
This bear is chomping popcorn, watching bull minnows get suckered by the same trick over and over. And over.   You know, I'll be honest, you're getting on my nerves lately, but someone who posts Balthus is at least bearable as as human being in my book. #goodartsealofapproval |
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[the usual nonsense]
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BINGO. this legit ew count is unfolding and makes perfect sense. IV waves reside in the iv wave of one lower fractal, below 446 in this case. Iv waves tend to be triangles too. this is a great count. I am expecting $260 coins in the coming days as the correction is not officially over, needing a wave d and e to complete.  Makes sense, but I doubt it's the right one. By your count, ~350 is the top of the retracement from the $275 bottom. I expect more from it, $360, $380, maybe more, based on volume mainly. What happens afterwards remains to be seen, although I'm also leaning towards another test of 2xx eventually. Let's come back to it in a week :) |
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was thinking about this:
[picture downward channel]
Or, alternatively, upwards breakout out of this triangle:  Not really betting on that though, no volume confirmation or anything. |
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last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400. We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything. look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market. 1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)  I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try Alright, I see your point now. What you mean is, there was plenty of time to get in "relatively cheap" before the next bubble started. I agree with that. But I hope you understand my point as well: From the perspective of the absolute bottom, that 90-120 USD range was already 2 to 2.5 times higher than the bottom. In that sense, not really the cheapest coins anymore. But, "cheap enough", if you want to get in before the next rally, which is what you mean I suppose. EDIT: to make it more "graphic", let's assume $280 was in fact the bottom this time (I'm not saying it necessarily is, but that's not the point in this argument). Then we could hover in the $400, $500, $600 range for a while before the next rally, applying the same factor as in 2013. I don't know about you, but buying in at $500, when I could have bought in at $300, seems okay to me, but not really ideal either. |
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