All speculators invited: 2015/6 Price Prediction Contest. Win 0.44 BTC.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Fun game, thanks Oda !

[NorrisK]

Equus, what the fuck!?

Realisticly, Norrisk(no risk?) has the highest chance to win.

Thanks everyone for participating! Pleasure, as before

Thank you, oda.

Haha, it is not no risk It was made from chuck norris and kek, which in time led to this shorter version.

I don't think I ahve the biggest chance, someone has put his range right in the middle of my estimate, which blocks a large portion of my range.

[sgbett]

hands up those who are rooting for equus to win...

*raises hand*

[Wexlike]

Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)...

How fast times are changing.

[oda.krell]

Wait a year. Win 0.3 BTC (or 100$ in BTC)...

How fast times are changing. :)

It seems you left out the "by my choice" part :D

Anyway, 5 1/2 months left before evaluation... maybe the more bullish submissions to the contest have a shot at winning after all.

[crilleaz]

Maybe we need to start a new one starting now which ends on the same date as this one. We can see how people react on the current price.

[oda.krell]

check my figures! there were so few entries it didn't seem worth working out out programmatically so I just figured it out by hand, so inevitably there could be some human error :)

~3 more months to go for 51k USD :D

[oda.krell]

And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:

windjc

As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.

Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.

The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).

Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, Harrywindjc!

Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).

[oda.krell]

Just to wrap it all up:

A year ago, when the contestants entered their predictions, the price (by the same metric as used above) was 337 USD, so up ~117% since then. Not quite as much as the majority of contestants predicted, but not too shabby either imo ;)

[Wexlike]

Congratulations!

[Tzupy]

I thought windjc was a permabull, so this is a major surprise for me.
Congrats anyway!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Congrats windjc ! And thanks again for the game Oda, it was quite generous.  I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy. 
I knew I was being optimistic, but I figured I needed to carve out a niche.  Maybe in a few months  ;-) ?

[oda.krell]

Maybe in a few months  ;-) ?

That's the spirit!

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy. 

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

[uki]

Maybe in a few months  ;-) ?

That's the spirit!

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy. 

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

That would be great, as I was regreting to be late last time!
117% growth over a year is actually a great score, if you ask me, I was gonna predict somewhere around $500.
It will be very hard to repeat that growth this coming year.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy. 

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

I would certainly be up for it :-) .  I thought the range guessing was a very interesting setup, but just guessing a price would be easier.

[oda.krell]

I was astounded that so few people entered given that it is both fun, potentially lucrative and easy. 

Thought so too. Maybe the rules were too complicated? If there's enough interest in it, I wouldn't mind running another one.

I would certainly be up for it :-) .  I thought the range guessing was a very interesting setup, but just guessing a price would be easier.

Maybe I should have stated this more clearly, but contestants were able to enter a point estimate -- it just means that you were at a disadvantage to actually 'hit' the correct price compared to those entering a range, while having a major advantage on the second criterion ("width of range").

[lolikop]

Congrats to the winner did he replyed yet or he allready got so much money predicting the value he dont even care

[oda.krell]

Congrats to the winner did he replyed yet or he allready got so much money predicting the value he dont even care

Haha, no, he didn't respond yet.

And, well, I do think windjc has been a pretty successful trader, but if I had to guess, lack of an answer is more due to infrequent forum presence than anything else.

I'm writing him a PM now, and then let's wait another week to see if he drops by to collect.

[windjc]

And the winner of this Bitcoin price one year from now prediction contest is:

windjc

As of today's close (UTC), the 20 day SMA over USD/BTC on Bitstamp is 729.8.

Windjc's prediction was 650 to 750, so the actual (average) price is within windjc's prediction range.

The only other contestant who entered a range that includes the actual price is NorrisK (who entered 300 to 3,000). By the tie-breaking criterion stated in my OP, "narrower width of prediction range wins", windjc is the winner of the contest (100 < 2700).

Congratulations. You're a true market wizard, Harrywindjc!

Let me know which address you want me to send the funds to: 0.3 BTC pledged by myself, plus accumulated participation fees worth ~0.14 BTC (generously rounded up by several participants), for a total of ~0.44 BTC (~325 USD).

Cool. Nice bonus. I'll use this to pay for my Christmas present to myself - a hoverboard. So when I'm rolling around my house I'll think of all of you fondly.

[oda.krell]

(to windjc)

Hey, look who's here! Glad to see you, champ!

(to himself)

Damn, he showed up after all. And here I was thinking I could keep the reward. Screw this guy and his hoverboard.


Transfer's on the way. Well deserved bonus, that was an exceptionally accurate prediction. If there's another game like this, hope you can join again.